Laying AK Down Preflop
 

Am I nuts? No reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter

MP3 (t4155)
CO (t3570)
Button (t4495)
SB (t4405)
BB (t1040)
Hero (t5410)
UTG+1 (t4240)
MP1 (t1205)
MP2 (t1555)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t350</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t1400</font>, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1900

Edit: This is the Stars $20 MTT happening right now. Helps to know what level this tourney is.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

Negative. Bad lay down on many levels. Villain is shortstacked and is likely to push (even a re-raise) with hands you dominate or at worse coin flip. Let's assume you're against a pair lower than KK. You're a 55-45 dog and you're getting 1.6 to 1 odds. All you need is about 1.2 to 1 to make it neutral so this is a +EV call and losing will not hurt your stack much. In addition, folding leaves you open to other players coming over the top in similar situations which will take away some steal attempts.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

he wasn't short stacked; i had him covered by about 1200. why get involved in coinflip situations when you don't need to yet? his strong reraise clearly told me he had a pair. whether or not it was AA or KK, i didn't really want to get involved in such a huge pot out of position for potentially my entire stack this early in the tourney.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

Have to agree with the previous poster on this one. You're priced in to call here. Then you have to make the rest of your decisions based on the texture of the flop. If you miss you're out and if you hit it come out firing. If you get a call then you have to be careful on the turn. Calling here is a +EV so you have to call.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

it costs 1050 more to call for a 1900 pot. that's not quite 2:1. is it priced in? if you highly suspect your opponent has a pair?

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

absolutely, unless your read on this opponent tells you he would push this hard (raise 4 times your bet) with AA or KK. If he has any other pair you are almost dead even and getting almost 2 to 1 on your money. And it seems like you're getting some implied odds as well. To me he looks like he may be trying to protect pocket JJ, QQ or if he's an idiot a middle pair.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

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he wasn't short stacked; i had him covered by about 1200. why get involved in coinflip situations when you don't need to yet? his strong reraise clearly told me he had a pair. whether or not it was AA or KK, i didn't really want to get involved in such a huge pot out of position for potentially my entire stack this early in the tourney.

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Villian could have AJ, AT, AQ etc. People raise with stupid hands a lot of the time. You can't assume you're going to be a coinflip, you're probably *at worst* a coinflip.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
he wasn't short stacked; i had him covered by about 1200. why get involved in coinflip situations when you don't need to yet? his strong reraise clearly told me he had a pair. whether or not it was AA or KK, i didn't really want to get involved in such a huge pot out of position for potentially my entire stack this early in the tourney.

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I'd probably call his raise PF, and lead with a 2/3 pot bet on the flop pretty much on any flop. If I hit my K or A I'd probably check/raise.

Bottom line is that even if you somehow end up pushing on this hand, you leave yourself 12 BBs. That's more than enough wiggle room at this stage. If you win, you have an ~9k stack. Having that kind of stack is HUGE +ev. If you're playing for the FT (big money) you have to make this call and try to maximize these situations. You can't play scared poker with the second or third strongest hand in the game.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

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All you need is about 1.2 to 1 to make it neutral so this is a +EV call and losing will not hurt your stack much.

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You do not need only 1.2:1 unless you will be able to see all 5 cards, and the fact is that in this hand you aren't likely to see all 5 cards if the other guy has a pair and you miss on the flop. He's about a 2:1 dog to flop an A or a K on the flop.

This is very similar to the AK example in HoH v.2, the second one where Harrington advises calling because you "probably" have implied odds, UNLESS you were against a very tight player. Something tells me that there are actually a lot of players who could be labeled very tight in Stars MTTs. I think this fold is correct against most tight players as a big re-raise of a UTG raise from UTG+1 which committs about 1/3 of the guys stack is showing SERIOUS strength.

Interestingly, and wrongly IMO, Harrington also advises FOLDING the AK if you are against a player who raises approximately half of his stack and is thus pot committed if you suspect he has a pair. The reason given is that you should prefer to go all in to see all 5 cards but if you do go all in and are called, which you will be, by a lower pair you are only getting a fair price and fair priced coin flips are situations that most players try to avoid for the majority of their chips.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

if you are going to fold that hand, your open raise shouldn't be 3.5x, especially from EP.

I don't mind pushing there.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

This is a push or fold - calling is terrible - because a decent player is not generally doing that with AQ and even if he is you will be blown off any flop you both miss.

I don't mind either of those. (Of course, this assumes he's decent.)

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

I agree w/ Dave D - I think at this point, especially in a $20 MTT, you are at worst a coin flip. I want to see a flop and go for the check raise if I hit, or bail if I don't. You have an excellent chance to bust this guy and practically double up if you hit the flop. My 2 cents.
AcesKracked

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

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if you are going to fold that hand, your open raise shouldn't be 3.5x, especially from EP.

I don't mind pushing there.

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Yuck. I'm not pushing preflop in this spot. I guess you're talking about when the action first gets to me in the hand, not after he reraises me. I can see a case for pushing after he reraises me. I don't like calling either. Push/fold based on read.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

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This is a push or fold - calling is terrible - because a decent player is not generally doing that with AQ and even if he is you will be blown off any flop you both miss.

I don't mind either of those. (Of course, this assumes he's decent.)

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This is extremely similar to the situation described in HoH v2 on about page 235, the second example. In that example the book tells you to call and fold the flop if it misses you. Why is calling "terrible"? You're not getting good value on your money by shoving all in if the guy has a pocket pair, which seems to be his most likely holding by far.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

Darkhorse in your first post you mention no reads...then suddenly in your last you have a read...? Sorry just wondering what it is. Personally I call here b/c I'm getting good odds on my money and I can bust a player. If I do lose then I still have enough chips to make one more good last stand. I guess I'm agreeing with other guy that posted earlier and said call.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

I don't like a lot of things in HoH2 (like a LOT of them) so it's not a particularly good book to bring up, but actually, this hand is far closer to the first example in that book than the second. He's raising to over a third of his stack, and more importantly, calling is a quarter of yours.

Also, what Harrington doesn't say/consider is that when your opponent is a clown doing this with AJ, you don't see an A or K one in three times; you see it around one in four. That wrecks your odds pretty badly even when your implied odds rise to compensate (they don't always).

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Darkhorse in your first post you mention no reads...then suddenly in your last you have a read...? Sorry just wondering what it is. Personally I call here b/c I'm getting good odds on my money and I can bust a player. If I do lose then I still have enough chips to make one more good last stand. I guess I'm agreeing with other guy that posted earlier and said call.

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i guess in the future if i'm getting 2:1 on my money and i have some chips to spare i'm calling planning on only seeing the flop. you are 2.1:1 to flop a pair. i play a very cautious game in the early rounds, especially when i have some chips in front of me. my game shifts into high gear when the antes kick in.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

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I don't like a lot of things in HoH2 (like a LOT of them) so it's not a particularly good book to bring up, but actually, this hand is far closer to the first example in that book than the second. He's raising to over a third of his stack, and more importantly, calling is a quarter of yours.

Also, what Harrington doesn't say/consider is that when your opponent is a clown doing this with AJ, you don't see an A or K one in three times; you see it around one in four. That wrecks your odds pretty badly even when your implied odds rise to compensate (they don't always).

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that's what i don't like about calling this out of position. if your AK high is best, he can easily take you off the hand unless you have a super read.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

I don't think there is anything wrong with laying this down, but I really dislike your opening raise. I think you should have either raised less (~250) or more (~500). At this stage in the tournament I prefer to make the smaller raise since playing AK post flop with a large pot can be tricky, especially out of position.

and UTG raise then UTG+1 re-raise is pretty strong, so I'd say you have practically no fold equity here. You also have a large stack, and you should be reluctant to get into coin flips with those other people at your table that can nearly bust you. When you have a large stack in relation to the big blind I believe your priority is to protect your big stack, try and pick up uncontested pots to chip up, and tangle with the smaller stacks when the pot odds and your hand dictate it is correct to do so, in that order.

I don't think winning this hand at this stage of the tournament significantly increases your chances of making the final table that much, while losing this potential coin flip virtually assures you won't make it.

Barring reads I either lay this down (easily if I make a smaller PF raise) or call with the plan of check/folding a miss, check raising all in if I hit, and possibly pushing the flop if the board is scary enough and I think I can get him to lay down a hand like TT or JJ.

Call me weak tight, but when I have 50 times the BB I don't like to play coin flips for most of my chips, especially early in the tournament.

-Rizen

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

Agree 100%. Great post. I'll have to remember about the size of my PF raise when I've got AK in EP at this stage in the tournament (will happen rarely).

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

I think I agree with the fold here. I disagree about it being just a coin-toss. Yes, it is a coin toss if they have any pair OTHER than AA or KK. Here, they very well could have either with a bet that size. They have already seen you raise, showing your intent to play the hand, or at least see a flop, and they make a healthy raise, hoping you will call. While he could have AK as well, or AQ, (and with it being an online tourney, AJ, AT and KQ aren't impossible holdings) the likelihood is that he probably does have a pair. Any pair he holds other than AA or KK you are a slight underdog. I just don't see it being worth it here, still having an M of 36.

Results
 

fwiw, i asksed villian later in the tourney what he had and he said he had pocket tens. if we knew he had tens, and we had no read on the kind of player he is, how do we proceed?

Re: Results
 

You have to call 1050 to win 1750. That's 60% of the pot, but your odds of winning are roughly 43%. At this point you also start considering your original logic, do I need to start getting into big hands with my stack. The answer by default is a no. I think the only thing that would make me call here is if i thought I had the implied odds (I could get him to pay me off if a A/K flopped or whatever). Or if I have super confidence in my post flop skillz.

If you somehow magically knew he had 10s, it's a fold for me. Maybe some players would call. I think pushing is no longer an option because most people will not lay down tens in this situation.

Re: Results
 

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If you somehow magically knew he had 10s, it's a fold for me. Maybe some players would call. I think pushing is no longer an option because most people will not lay down tens in this situation.

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If you magically knew he had tens, it's a mandatory call. You're getting 2:1 or so to flop an A or K, so that's close to par EV, but your absolute knowledge of his hand takes all the uncertainty out of your implied odds AND your reverse implied odds. With those factors operating in your favor, it's gotta be an easy call.

Re: Results
 

As i mentioned in my second post, he looked like he was trying to protect a slightly less than premium pair. So we had a good read on him and we have to call because we are getting much better pot odds and with a pair we are probably getting implied odds. Either way you must call this !!!

Re: Results
 

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Forgive a dumb newbie qustion, but here goes. Assuming that the pot odds are in your favor but you don't like even remote 'coin flips ' early on, how do you win the tournament?

Just got through reading Sexton's book when he talks about how Ungar did next to nothing in the early rounds and then when the antes hit, he would rob like crazy. How P. Helmuth follows a similar style and how neither liked to get involved in big pots until they amassed chips by ante and blind stealing. Now if I understand the original poster correctly, he appears to follow this way, as well, cosequently justifying his AK fold as a good one.

Fair enough. But to be specific HOW DO YOU WIN THE ANTES WITHOUT A BIGGER STACK? You've established yourself as supertight (hell, show them the AK as you lay it down! ) but--besides having an almot telepathic read on the opponents--what wll enable you to switch gears and get aggresive when the antes come into play? Isn't the implication that you will have amassed chips in the meantime by playing supertight? At least that's what it sounds like. BuT HOW?
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Play only Sklansky's group one hands and if substatially raised pre-flop, fold?? Fold even if the pot odds after the flop are laying you good to great odds? Could someone help this newbie ignoramus with this one?
THX in advance. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

Just to chime in, I wouldn't have layed this down.. my logic is, if he had aces or kings, would he not want action from you instead of make a big re-raise? To me, the re-raise indicates he doesn't want to get called because he doesn't want to be in a coin-flip.. on the other hand, people (some) don't push their KK/AA as much pre-flop (against one player) as they would 99/10-10/JJ because they know that it may be the best hand now, but probably not after the flop.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

hey marwan, nice job in last season's 24. sorry your son killed you.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

I don't like folding here at all. Villain is not pot committed by his raise. It's very unlikely that he has aces or kings. So push over the top of him and watch him fold most of the time and you scoop a nice sized pot.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
This is a push or fold - calling is terrible - because a decent player is not generally doing that with AQ and even if he is you will be blown off any flop you both miss.

I don't mind either of those. (Of course, this assumes he's decent.)

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I like your analyses. Agree 100%. Lets say he got a medium pair. You miss the flop 70% of the time and he takes the pot. Difficult to say push or fold without any read.

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

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I don't like folding here at all. Villain is not pot committed by his raise. It's very unlikely that he has aces or kings. So push over the top of him and watch him fold most of the time and you scoop a nice sized pot.

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i don't think that in a $20 MTT most people are laying down pocket tens in this spot after putting in a sizable reraise. no, they aren't mathematically pot committed but psychologically most are. and i don't want them to call, especially if it is a coinflip. no thanks, next hand.

someone asked how you build your stack up by playing so tight in the early rounds before the antes. if you pick up enough good hands and just play solid poker, you have enough to build on. once the antes kick in the tournament begins; let the coin flip.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Forgive a dumb newbie qustion, but here goes. Assuming that the pot odds are in your favor but you don't like even remote 'coin flips ' early on, how do you win the tournament?

Just got through reading Sexton's book when he talks about how Ungar did next to nothing in the early rounds and then when the antes hit, he would rob like crazy. How P. Helmuth follows a similar style and how neither liked to get involved in big pots until they amassed chips by ante and blind stealing. Now if I understand the original poster correctly, he appears to follow this way, as well, cosequently justifying his AK fold as a good one.

Fair enough. But to be specific HOW DO YOU WIN THE ANTES WITHOUT A BIGGER STACK? You've established yourself as supertight (hell, show them the AK as you lay it down! ) but--besides having an almot telepathic read on the opponents--what wll enable you to switch gears and get aggresive when the antes come into play? Isn't the implication that you will have amassed chips in the meantime by playing supertight? At least that's what it sounds like. BuT HOW?
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Play only Sklansky's group one hands and if substatially raised pre-flop, fold?? Fold even if the pot odds after the flop are laying you good to great odds? Could someone help this newbie ignoramus with this one?
THX in advance. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

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For a newbie, you are way ahead of the curve. You have the right instincts, so don't let the folders teach you bad habits which you will have to unlearn later.

Survival counts for nothing in a MTT if you don't increase your stack. And you need to keep up the pace, or hopefully be ahead of it, so people don't take advantage of you as a short stack. So you can't afford to just sit there, folding at every sign of aggression, waiting for AA.

If you have a 60% chance to increase your stack from 2000 to 4000 you must go for it. Period, end of story, no matter how many times you hear the worthless comment "if you lose, you're out." The idea that you can pass up opportunities like this because you can increase your stack with no risk later on is just silly. Even if you just sit there looking to steal the blinds, there's risk, the risk that someone will wake up with a hand, the risk that someone will make a play at you.

If your stack is healthy, there are times you can afford to pass up an unclear gamble; but generally, if you know the pot odds are in your favor by a substantial amount but you pass anyway, you're just not playing good poker.

Re: Results
 

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If your stack is healthy, there are times you can afford to pass up an unclear gamble; but generally, if you know the pot odds are in your favor by a substantial amount but you pass anyway, you're just not playing good poker.

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Pot odds were not substantially in my favor by making this call. The pot was laying me less than 2:1. I am 2.1:1 to flop a pair. If an ace or king fell and he indeed had tens, I doubt he's putting much more money in the pot. Perhaps given the implied odds that he's going to put a bit more in there just to not give his tens up, maybe we're getting 2.1:1 on our money.

edit: my pot odds to call his raise at the time was 1.8.1.

Re: Results
 

what if a queen comes? does he magically know to lay down to an ace or king on the flop, but there is no way you can move him off the pot if other big cards come out?

I'm still not sure you're not just supposed to push preflop, considering the position issues.

Re: Results
 

I think this is an interesting hand and post, but I'm gonna throw in another question to it. How does your opinion change(if it all) if you're holding JJ in this spot? QQ? I think these hands in this spot would also present a difficult yet different approach to this scenario. Comments?

Re: Laying AK Down Preflop
 

You'd rather flip later than now? Especially with at least some folding equity?

I'd vote push/fold/call in that order. Against a decent player and/or a fast structure ala Pokerstars, I'll gamble here. I think the times you fold a hand like TT or are called by a 2.5/1 dog will more than make up for your losses in this spot.