My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

There were about 1100 players remaining out of 3079 starting. So the average stack was ~t7000. The blinds were 200/400 25 ante. I had the avg., 7000.

I was in the CO, villain was one seat to my right. Villain had been pretty short (around 3500) before tripling up with quads. He then won two more huge hands to increase his stack to ~30,000, which put him in the top 5. In all cases he had good hands. So he wasn't being a cowboy and getting lucky. But, my thoughts were that his confidence was high, and perhaps my fold equity was low.

Folded to Villain who raises 2.5BB (t1000). I push all in with AQo. What do you think of this play?

Thanks in advance.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Looks good. He's on a rush and feeling good -- and AQo is ahead of his LP raising hands. In this tournament I feel you can't sit around and wait for the best scenarios because of how fast it moves. You have to push the small edges. This is a good scenario, and w/ his raise + blinds/antes will be a good pick up.

If he calls, our hand is good enough to win a decent amount of the time. Hopefully he didn't get lucky and pick up QQ+, AK.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Was the 2.5x BB raise standard for him? If so, I can't argue with the push. Even if it wasn't standard, I'd still have to have a lot of evidence before I'd put him on a monster.

Sounds like bad timing.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

I've been unfortunate to be involved in many similar hand scenarios lately with aggressive players. And some one mentioned the stop and go to me instead of pushing, and I'm now a convert.

First off. Why go all in preflop here against a bigger stack than can bust you. Your not in the red zone of chips, and still have plenty of play left in your game here. I don't think we are down to a push or fold situations yet. At least not against bigger stacks.

My play stop and go. You just call. You flop a queen, best scenario, go all in. Villian's got a hard decision to call a big bet with only two cards to come and overcards.(Assuming he has AK) Same situation if you flop nothing.

Why all in is bad. You were right to start. Your FE is slim to the big stack and even if you spike a queen, after he calls he could still catch a card or cards to bust you.

I had a similar situation. I knew I was ahead and pushed with king/jack suited to an overly aggressive player who called me with jack/ten offsuit. I had no FE, flop all bricks and he cathes a ten on the turn and jack on the river to bust me. If I had done the stop and go. Would he have called my all in with two cards to come with jack ten offsuit. This guy was nuts, so maybe, but at least he's not in till the river with the stop and go, and I'm giving him a chance to fold.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've been unfortunate to be involved in many similar hand scenarios lately with aggressive players. And some one mentioned the stop and go to me instead of pushing, and I'm now a convert.

First off. Why go all in preflop here against a bigger stack than can bust you. Your not in the red zone of chips, and still have plenty of play left in your game here. I don't think we are down to a push or fold situations yet. At least not against bigger stacks.

My play stop and go. You just call. You flop a queen, best scenario, go all in. Villian's got a hard decision to call a big bet with only two cards to come and overcards.(Assuming he has AK) Same situation if you flop nothing.

Why all in is bad. You were right to start. Your FE is slim to the big stack and even if you spike a queen, after he calls he could still catch a card or cards to bust you.

I had a similar situation. I knew I was ahead and pushed with king/jack suited to an overly aggressive player who called me with jack/ten offsuit. I had no FE, flop all bricks and he cathes a ten on the turn and jack on the river to bust me. If I had done the stop and go. Would he have called my all in with two cards to come with jack ten offsuit. This guy was nuts, so maybe, but at least he's not in till the river with the stop and go, and I'm giving him a chance to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, you're misinformed on the concept of Stop N' Go. Don't feel bad, since it appears that a majority of the posters are. A Stop N' Go is useful when you have no fold equity. I have fold equity.

Secondly, it's used when you are first to act after the flop. I would not be the first. Not to mention that there are three players to act behind me preflop.

So Stop N' Go is not even a discussable issue. Literally.

Anyway, an argument can be made for flat calling. But if I'm going to reraise, all-in is the only sensible option with a hand like AQ.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

I agree, it is too early on, and with your chip stack there is no need to make that move right there. You must have played somewhat good to get your stack to your level; why not continue to play well, and pick up smaller pots, and keep building your stack that way, instead of taking a shot in that situation?

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

I'm not going to disagree with anyone who doesn't think I should have made the play. After all, it's why I'm asking the question.

However, what's all this 'it's too early' nonsense. The average stack is 17BB, effectively less when you consider antes. It's not 'early.' It's danger time nearly half the participants.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Good point, my oversight you did say he was to the right of you and you were in the CO. So what's wrong with just calling here. I still don't think pushing here is a must with your stack relative to the blinds and up against a bigger stack. The flop misses you, he bets, you fold. It hits you hard and you double up. I just don't see it as a fold or push scenario regardless. Being that he's aggressive it would be so hard to put him on hands that kill you like aces or kings, but now I'm curious to what he busted you with. My guess, you had him dominated and he caught a 3 outer to bust you.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good point, my oversight you did say he was to the right of you and you were in the CO. So what's wrong with just calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, calling off 15% of your stack preflop is a bit iffy. I'm not necessarily getting implied odds. If he has a pp (like TT, or 66) and an A comes on the flop, it's highly unlikely that I'm going to double up. I don't think calling is horrible, just not ideal. I think you need to reraise or fold.

[ QUOTE ]
My guess, you had him dominated and he caught a 3 outer to bust you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Too many players get scared of being blinded out, and push their chips too often. You obviously should not let your stack get too low to where an all-in becomes an easy call for your opponent. It depends on how much confidence you have in your game. If you feel you are a very good player, and can build your stack by picking up pots, then don't push. If you feel you are just an average player, who eventually has to "take a coin flip", then push there and hope to get lucky. My game is strong enough that I don't need to push here, and getting blinded out is not in my thoughts at this time. By the way, I would probably call in that situation, and use my position on him and see what the flop brings.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

In your first post you said the average was 7,000 and you had the average 7,000. In either case you have better than 14BB left. According to HOH your in the yellow zone, with some play left. Under 10BB this is an easy push, in your case I agree with everyone else. Pushing here was premature. No disrespect, you must have played well to get that far.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Pushing here is a standard good aggresive play. People who say its too early enjoy going out on the bubble.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

I had 10k chips in the same tourney and average was 8k or so. An hour later I hadn't changed my position, and out of 9 players at the table I was 8th and had less than half average. This tourney structure is insanely fast and you need to push a lot of small edges.

You are never in a "safe" zone after the first hour of this tournament.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Too many players get scared of being blinded out, and push their chips too often. You obviously should not let your stack get too low to where an all-in becomes an easy call for your opponent. It depends on how much confidence you have in your game. If you feel you are a very good player, and can build your stack by picking up pots, then don't push. If you feel you are just an average player, who eventually has to "take a coin flip", then push there and hope to get lucky. My game is strong enough that I don't need to push here, and getting blinded out is not in my thoughts at this time. By the way, I would probably call in that situation, and use my position on him and see what the flop brings.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't agree here. The idea of taking coin flips when you're not the best player has more to do with calling than pushing. For example, if I had open raised from MP with AQo, and the villain had come over the top, I would have folded. Mostly because of the Gap Concept, but partially because what you have mentioned.

I know people don't want to hear this: but your skill with short stacks (and 17BB is effectively short) comes from identifying push/fold scenarios, not from being able to pick up pots postflop. Or even preflop. You don't have the kind of stack that can be seeing lots of flops.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing here is a standard good aggresive play. People who say its too early enjoy going out on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I generally agree. My only concern was my read on the villain. Due to his recent rush and stack size, I was concerned about my fold equity. How much of that needs to be diminished before this becomes a marginal play and one to be avoided?

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing here is a standard good aggresive play. People who say its too early enjoy going out on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL I'm sorry but, I'm definetly an aggresive player, but when your short stacked things change. I've been in last chip position a few times, been patient, and got lucky and made the final table. I just like outplaying my oponents on the flop more than risking it all preflop IMO.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just like outplaying my oponents on the flop more than risking it all preflop IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, with 17BB, you really don't have any business getting involved in raised pots without pushing. Unless you're trapping with AA or KK. Even then it can be a mistake.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

He's raising with a range that AQ is ahead of. Its fine if he isn't gonna fold a lot, because then he will call you with worse hands, like AJ or KQ enough to make up for the increased times you get called in a coinflip.

AQ is strong enough on its own to make the play here regardless of FE.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's raising with a range that AQ is ahead of. Its fine if he isn't gonna fold a lot, because then he will call you with worse hands, like AJ or KQ enough to make up for the increased times you get called in a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's true. I still obviously need to accumulate chips.

I suppose my doubts stem from my STT play (the majority). In that format, with 30% getting paid, you desperately want to avoid a lot of these situations.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Under normal circumstances I have no problem with pushing here,however there are several factors that are against you.
1. Villian is a big stack. Like you say, less folding equity.
2. Villian has shown strength, unless you have a read on this particular sized raise as being weak.
3. Villian is feeling lucky?? If he has any sort of hand you are likely to be called, against a weaker hand you obviously want this, but I would rather not take a coin flip just yet, as you say you still have an average stack.

Other considerations for pushing would be the feel of the table, how tight/loose are people playing, can you steal your way forward or are you going to have to show a real hand to win any pots?

I think it's very close, personally I would wait but I prefer to raise with air when no one has opened the pot than almost guaruntee myself a showdown.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

I like your push.

Some more back of the envelope crude estimates!
Hero is about 50% against a modest range for villain (77++,a9s++,kq). So the push is only EV+ to the extent of hero's FE which hero feels is low and the dead money in the pot. How low? Villain is getting ~1.5:1 in the pot to call a push and has to be 40% in the hand to justify a call. If villain puts hero on a tight range of 99++,AQ++, villain can still call his entire range and get 40% equity. Given hero's read, and villain's stack, I think hero's FE is pretty small. Maybe villain throws down only the Harrington 10% which we will estimate at ~10%, so hero's FE is only worth ~10% X T1850 = ~T180.
There's T850 in the pot of dead money (not belonging to either player) which hero gets 1/2:T425.
Hero bets T7000 to win ~T600 (T425+T180); it has alot of variance for a little gain, but hero should welcome the variance at this stage in the mid-tourney, and it's CEV+.
The estimates are crude, but it will come out CEV+.

I have ignored further action by other players.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

ok, tell me how you outplay somebody on the flop when you have 14 BBs in your stack, and there are 7 BBs in the pot.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
There were about 1100 players remaining out of 3079 starting. So the average stack was ~t7000. The blinds were 200/400 25 ante. I had the avg., 7000.

I was in the CO, villain was one seat to my right. Villain had been pretty short (around 3500) before tripling up with quads. He then won two more huge hands to increase his stack to ~30,000, which put him in the top 5. In all cases he had good hands. So he wasn't being a cowboy and getting lucky. But, my thoughts were that his confidence was high, and perhaps my fold equity was low.

Folded to Villain who raises 2.5BB (t1000). I push all in with AQo. What do you think of this play?

Thanks in advance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure I push here close to every time regardless of FE. Big stack calls with A-10+, KQ and 66+ here. You dominate him more than he dominates you.

But just out of curiosity, do we consider the blinds still to act in the equation at all? Does that keep some from pushing here?

Brad

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

You have 17.5BBs when this hand started. AQo is a nice hand but for 2.5BBs why not just call and see what the flop comes? I personally would have folded this preflop as you could easly be up against AA, AK, KK, QQ in this situation.

I would have to know more about this particular opponent but since he has played quality hands on his double ups, I don't see him all of a sudden going crazy because he has some chips.

Against a solid opponent I would fold. Against a lose player, I would call.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

versus going out well from it?

I am starting to believe that Aggressive really is synonomous with Getting Lucky. People advocate pushing in situations like this if they are going to play this type of hand and yet there is absolutely no reason to push against a raise with a hand that is easily dominated.

Do most of you that have been successful rely on hoping to get lucky in these tournaments more than actually playing solid poker?

I mean, I watched you this last weekend MLG and some of the hands that you played in the face of a huge raise were just silly, which I know you will agree because you said so at the time. You got lucky an incredible number of times. So much so I wondered if this is your typical style of play?


I mean no disrespect to the Pooh-Bahs on here. After all who am I, but I think it is a valid point when discussing stategies and playing hands, and especially when commenting on hands of others.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have 17.5BBs when this hand started. AQo is a nice hand but for 2.5BBs why not just call and see what the flop comes? I personally would have folded this preflop as you could easly be up against AA, AK, KK, QQ in this situation.

I would have to know more about this particular opponent but since he has played quality hands on his double ups, I don't see him all of a sudden going crazy because he has some chips.

Against a solid opponent I would fold. Against a lose player, I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]You are VERY,VERY, weak-tight

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do most of you that have been successful rely on hoping to get lucky in these tournaments more than actually playing solid poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

This comment is applicable to those types of players who would reraise with AT here (or even AJ) and call big reraise/pushes with a hand like 66. Going all-in with fold equity isn't begging to 'get lucky.' That's just absurd.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

yeah, you're right. Im a bad player who pushes a lot and gets lucky. With the way I play, I'll never win anything. Oh, wait, I've won a lot.

You are making blind assertions. You want to convince me that not reraising all-in here with AQ is the right, play then do some actual hand analysis. What range of hands do you think the big stack will raise with? Of those hands which ones will he call a push with and which ones will he fold? When he calls, how often will you win and how often will he win?

You want to think I play badly thats fine. You'll still sit there and marvel at how lucky I must be to get the results I do. Try offering some proof instead of hand waving.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing here is a standard good aggresive play. People who say its too early enjoy going out on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

mmmmm, bubble.

colson10

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Get the chips in. If you pass up opportunities to come over the top like this then you aint gonna be winning tournaments. Ok sometimes he has a big hand and you're gone but this is far outweighted by a) the number of times he folds and b)the number of times he calls and loses.

Some of the advice in this thread is horribly weak tight, perhaps coming from people who don't play this tournament too often and don't really understand how quick the blinds rise in it. You will get nowhere without gambling here and there and this is certainly a spot to gamble in.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Given villain's table image (which he could now be using to his advantage) and his chip stack, I put his ROHs here at any 2 cards since this could easily be a raise-steal; because after all - who wants to take on the big stack?

I push (and bust) here too.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

Harrington's Zones are based on the total pot, not the BB. With blinds 200/400 and antes 25, there should at least be 800 in the pot. That means he is actually in the Orange Zone.

Unless you have some kind of amazing read that the raiser has a monster, this is really a situation where everything about it green lights a push.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]

Villain had been pretty short (around 3500) before tripling up with quads. He then won two more huge hands to increase his stack to ~30,000, which put him in the top 5. In all cases he had good hands.

Folded to Villain who raises 2.5BB (t1000). I push all in with AQo. What do you think of this play?


[/ QUOTE ]

Under normal circumstances I think a push is fully in line. The only apprehension I have about a push is I never like getting involved with a guy who's clearly rushing with a hand like AQ. I understand that means he's more willing to call with hands like 66 or maybe even KQ, but it seems in these cases, he's just as likely to have the goods.

Sometimes you just gotta wait for the guy to cool off before you get involved.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Under normal circumstances I think a push is fully in line. The only apprehension I have about a push is I never like getting involved with a guy who's clearly rushing with a hand like AQ. I understand that means he's more willing to call with hands like 66 or maybe even KQ, but it seems in these cases, he's just as likely to have the goods.

Sometimes you just gotta wait for the guy to cool off before you get involved.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've read through this a couple of times, and I'm trying to give you the benefit of the doubt but it's not easy. Are you actually suggesting that it's more likely he has a solid hand right now because he's "rushing"? I hope you aren't, but if you are, you are being a very silly person indeed. The cards don't have memory.

As others have pointed out in this thread, his recent success makes the range of hands he would both raise and call a push with quite broad. The principal consideration here is the range of hands he would play this way. We can attempt to infer that range of hands from his recent play. We cannot infer the quality of his actual holding based on the quality of cards he has recently been dealt.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

So what did you end up losing on after all the discusion?

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you actually suggesting that it's more likely he has a solid hand right now because he's "rushing"? I hope you aren't, but if you are, you are being a very silly person indeed. The cards don't have memory.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not suggesting that the fact that he has recently had a good run of cards somehow indicates that he must also have a very good hand this time as well.

I'm suggesting that I prefer to stay out of the way of the guy who has gone from the felt to top 5 in what the OP implies was a short period of time. Rushes happen. I like having them, I like staying away from those who seem unable to do wrong for a period of time.

That doesn't mean I'm saying it's a definite fold. I'm just saying that in addition to the other information the fact that he's running good MUST be taken into consideration, just as you would likely try to get involved more often with someone who is running bad.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing here is a standard good aggresive play. People who say its too early enjoy going out on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am 100% with MLG here, which is generally a good place to be.

We may be giving away the store by revealing this, but a major way you accumulate chips in these tournaments is by picking off loose open-raises. Yes, if you play like this, you have to accept that occasionally the guy will flip over AA and you'll feel like a total donk, but it's still the correct play based on his range of hands.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am starting to believe that Aggressive really is synonomous with Getting Lucky

[/ QUOTE ]
Nah. Winning (in) MTTs is synonomous with Getting Lucky. Aggresive (in a winning variation) is synonomous with Choosing your Battles.

Building a solid stack earlier rather than later - no matter how you play you'll have to get lucky & win your conflips (and probably even win a couple of hands as a substantial underdog), but if you have a big stack around the bubble or around the final table bubble you will not bust even if you lose one or two hands. You increase your chances of a big payday by pushing your edges early on, even if they (the edges) are small.

[ QUOTE ]
[...] there is absolutely no reason to push against a raise with a hand that is easily dominated

[/ QUOTE ]

AQ is (only) dominated by AA, KK, QQ and AK. There's no way you can put the raisor on one of these hands with a probability that justifies a term like "easily".

To me as well this hand is a no-brainer: Push.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[/ QUOTE ]You are VERY,VERY, weak-tight

[/ QUOTE ]

If you say so, Dan Harrington, who some might say is pretty good, advocates this very thing AQo in 5th position to a raise in 3rd position. Whereas he would call if it was suited.

Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you say so, Dan Harrington, who some might say is pretty good, advocates this very thing AQo in 5th position to a raise in 3rd position. Whereas he would call if it was suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are completely ignoring the stack size implications and the read the OP has on the PFR, both of which are the determining factors on what you want to do here.

Stack sizes make a PF call horrible as you have no wiggle room on the flop, which you will miss 2/3 of the time and if you hit an A or Q, you won't be sure if they're good, not to mention that a PF call gives nice odds to everyone behind to call......

Regards,
Woodguy