NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

In Stanford Wong's book, Sharp Sports Betting, in his section on NFL teasers, he emphasizes the importance, in all teasers, of teasing to "capture" both the 7 and the 3 (the key numbers in football betting). This advice pertains only to NFL teasers. He points to results from 1990-2000 for support.

Essentially, we are looking to tease in any situation where the line is 1.5, 2, 2.5, 7.5, 8, 8.5. We want to tease all dogs of 1.5 to 2.5, and all favorites of 7.5 to 8.5. This captures both the 3 and the 7.

I tested this theory against all results from 1983 to 2004. It's a winning system. However, I must emphasize the importance of using a sportsbook that offers +100 odds on 6-point, 2-team teasers. You MUST get even money on these. It's terrible not to, as there are several sportsbooks out there that offer these odds. Check out the top books at Bill Dozer's SBR.

In 1983-2004...
Teasers went 857-760-8 for 52.999% winners, +97 units.
When teams were within the range specified above, the teased line went 815-310-4 for 72.47% winners. This is in excess of what is needed to win when given +100 odds.

In 1983-1989...
Teasers went 295-256-6 for 53.54% winners, +39 units.
Individual teasing opportunities went 279-92-3 for 75.2% winners.

In 1990-2000...
Teasers went 433-352-2 for 55.16% winners, +81 units.
Individual teasing opportunities went 402-154-1 for 72.3% winners.

In 2001-2004...
Teasers went 129-152 for 45.9% winners, -23 units.
Individual teasing opportunities went 135-64 for 67.8% winners.

Recent years have obviously not been kind to this system...

2001 - 19-36
2002 - 76-29
2003 - 20-40
2004 - 14-47

My only recommendation from all of this is that if you are looking for teasers to play, I wouldn't play anything that doesn't capture both the 7 and the 3. You might want to look for these situations that arise and then combine it with good handicapping to isolate more likely winners. If you play every teaser available, you will obviously be playing a lot of teasers. There were a few weeks over the years that had you playing 28 different teaser combinations, which can have you playing nearly half of your bankroll on the outcome of 8 different games.

I hope this is somehow helpful.

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

Thanks for doing all of the work, or at least consolidating the data from other sources.

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

Good post. By the way, if you're doing all of the analysis, you might want to exclude road favorites like Wong suggests (since they have historicly been the worst-performing subset ATS I think he says).

BTW check out Fezzik's Place. Fezzik is one of the best football cappers out there. He is a tout, but from what I can determine, one of the few good/honest ones. He's giving away his football picks this season to make up for his lack of success this past NBA season. He mentions using teasers in this fashion in this thread. Supposedly the effect is even greater in preseason games because of the low totals and coaches not looking to blow out other teams. Also, Fezzik referenced the teaser portion of Wong's book the the air when he was hosting the "You Can Bet on It" radio show.

(Doh, I just saw you mentioned Fezzik already in another post - well, maybe someone else will find my post useful)

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good post. By the way, if you're doing all of the analysis, you might want to exclude road favorites like Wong suggests (since they have historicly been the worst-performing subset ATS I think he says).

BTW check out Fezzik's Place. Fezzik is one of the best football cappers out there. He is a tout, but from what I can determine, one of the few good/honest ones. He's giving away his football picks this season to make up for his lack of success this past NBA season. He mentions using teasers in this fashion in this thread. Supposedly the effect is even greater in preseason games because of the low totals and coaches not looking to blow out other teams. Also, Fezzik referenced the teaser portion of Wong's book the the air when he was hosting the "You Can Bet on It" radio show.

(Doh, I just saw you mentioned Fezzik already in another post - well, maybe someone else will find my post useful)

[/ QUOTE ]

Fezzik is a great NFL handicapper, but should be avoided when it comes to other sports.

Home Teams Only
 

I tested this system with home teams only, since they tend to do better in these teasers. It did much better.

270-198, 57.7%, +72 units from 1983 to 2004.

I would recommend playing these very strongly. A 15.4% edge when you get the odds at +100 is nothing to sneeze at.

Again, the last two seasons were weak at 4-10 and 7-18 respectively for -17 units. I'm not saying the system is "due" or anything, but the 1983-2002 record of 259-171 for 60.2% and +88 units should not be ignored.

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

Quick question about teasers,

Say you have 3 teams that fall into the +1.5-2.5 range
Buf +1.5
Mia +1.5
Den +2

So you tease them to 7.5, 7.5, and 8 repsectfully. Now is this done on 3 teasers (buf,mia mia,den and buf,den) or 2 teasers (buf,mia mia,den) or 1 3 team teaser?

Thanks in advance
-Ftball

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quick question about teasers,

Say you have 3 teams that fall into the +1.5-2.5 range
Buf +1.5
Mia +1.5
Den +2

So you tease them to 7.5, 7.5, and 8 repsectfully. Now is this done on 3 teasers (buf,mia mia,den and buf,den) or 2 teasers (buf,mia mia,den) or 1 3 team teaser?

Thanks in advance
-Ftball

[/ QUOTE ]

You would do 3 separate 2-team, 6-point teasers (this is the only type of teaser this system covers, though I have read that it works on 6.5 and 7-point teasers with more teams with very slightly different parameters):

1) Team #1 w/ #2
2) Team #1 w/ #3
3) Team #2 w/ #3

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quick question about teasers,

Say you have 3 teams that fall into the +1.5-2.5 range
Buf +1.5
Mia +1.5
Den +2

So you tease them to 7.5, 7.5, and 8 repsectfully. Now is this done on 3 teasers (buf,mia mia,den and buf,den) or 2 teasers (buf,mia mia,den) or 1 3 team teaser?

Thanks in advance
-Ftball

[/ QUOTE ]

You would do 3 separate 2-team, 6-point teasers (this is the only type of teaser this system covers, though I have read that it works on 6.5 and 7-point teasers with more teams with very slightly different parameters):

1) Team #1 w/ #2
2) Team #1 w/ #3
3) Team #2 w/ #3

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to also add that you need to be careful about how much you bet on the round robin of teasers. this is what i suggest:

in this spots its fairly simple, 3 teams, 3 total units wagered, 3 teasers. however, sometimes there are 4 teams that qualify and a round robin can look like this

a/b
c/d
a/c
a/d
b/c
b/d

so 4 teams, 6 teasers = 4 units/6 wagers = .66 unit on each teaser. a lot of people will just bet one unit on each teaser, and this is overexposure IMO. (there will be times when there are more than 4 teams that qualify)

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quick question about teasers,

Say you have 3 teams that fall into the +1.5-2.5 range
Buf +1.5
Mia +1.5
Den +2

So you tease them to 7.5, 7.5, and 8 repsectfully. Now is this done on 3 teasers (buf,mia mia,den and buf,den) or 2 teasers (buf,mia mia,den) or 1 3 team teaser?

Thanks in advance
-Ftball

[/ QUOTE ]

You would do 3 separate 2-team, 6-point teasers (this is the only type of teaser this system covers, though I have read that it works on 6.5 and 7-point teasers with more teams with very slightly different parameters):

1) Team #1 w/ #2
2) Team #1 w/ #3
3) Team #2 w/ #3

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to also add that you need to be careful about how much you bet on the round robin of teasers. this is what i suggest:

in this spots its fairly simple, 3 teams, 3 total units wagered, 3 teasers. however, sometimes there are 4 teams that qualify and a round robin can look like this

a/b
c/d
a/c
a/d
b/c
b/d

so 4 teams, 6 teasers = 4 units/6 wagers = .66 unit on each teaser. a lot of people will just bet one unit on each teaser, and this is overexposure IMO. (there will be times when there are more than 4 teams that qualify)

[/ QUOTE ]

There were a couple times when 8 teams qualified for the less selective (both home and visitor) system. This means 28 teasers. 28 full units on 8 games would not be wise.

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

There's a reason they're called teasers.

The real problem is when you go 1 for 2 and lose the entire bet, whereas you would have just lost the vig if you when 1 and 1 on 2 regular wagers.

I don't do teasers anymore. I just take the side I would have wanted to tease. A bookie friend of mine has told me that teasers and parlays is where people get killed.

Plenty of games do not fall within 6 points of the spread. The spread is just to get even money bet both ways. Not a prediction of where the final score should fall.

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

[ QUOTE ]
There's a reason they're called teasers.

The real problem is when you go 1 for 2 and lose the entire bet, whereas you would have just lost the vig if you when 1 and 1 on 2 regular wagers.

I don't do teasers anymore. I just take the side I would have wanted to tease. A bookie friend of mine has told me that teasers and parlays is where people get killed.

Plenty of games do not fall within 6 points of the spread. The spread is just to get even money bet both ways. Not a prediction of where the final score should fall.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously don't get the point of what you're saying here. Are you saying that if teasers and parlays are beaten randomly, they're losers? Of course they are. Are you saying the system above doesn't work? If 22 years worth of data isn't enough to prove that it does, what is?

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

You say that individual teaser opportunitues went 67.8% in the 2001-2004 time span, and yet despite being right on 2 out 3 games this system still lost money for people teasing them. Thus I am curious to see what percent of those same teased games you'd have won if you hadn't teased them but rather just took the regular line whenever this teasing opportunity showed itself.

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

There were a couple times when 8 teams qualified for the less selective (both home and visitor) system. This means 28 teasers. 28 full units on 8 games would not be wise.

yes, but .25 of a unit on each teaser would be [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

[ QUOTE ]
You say that individual teaser opportunitues went 67.8% in the 2001-2004 time span, and yet despite being right on 2 out 3 games this system still lost money for people teasing them. Thus I am curious to see what percent of those same teased games you'd have won if you hadn't teased them but rather just took the regular line whenever this teasing opportunity showed itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

the point is simple:

if you can tease two teams, cross the 3 and 7 AND get +100 you will make money.

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

[ QUOTE ]
You say that individual teaser opportunitues went 67.8% in the 2001-2004 time span, and yet despite being right on 2 out 3 games this system still lost money for people teasing them. Thus I am curious to see what percent of those same teased games you'd have won if you hadn't teased them but rather just took the regular line whenever this teasing opportunity showed itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason the system lost money from 2001-2004 is that it needs 70.7% winners on individual games just to break even at even money. It only produced 67.8% winners.

The reason the system has always won money overall is that over 22 years, it won 72.47% of the time on individual games, giving you a 6% advantage over the house when receiving +100 odds on these teasers, which is now widely available.

Everything else you're saying is extremely vague. Yeah, a lot of times the teased +6 points doesn't make a difference. In fact, the majority of the time it doesn't make a difference. However, it's the times that it does make a difference that makes the difference.

Further, if you only play this system on home teams, you win 57.7% of the time. That's a huge advantage over the house.

I'll be posting within a few days (maybe even today) to show how parlays can be beaten at the odds offered by various sportsbooks online.

Re: NFL System Teasing 1983-2004
 

[ QUOTE ]

The reason the system lost money from 2001-2004 is that it needs 70.7% winners on individual games just to break even at even money. It only produced 67.8% winners.

The reason the system has always won money overall is that over 22 years, it won 72.47% of the time on individual games, giving you a 6% advantage over the house when receiving +100 odds on these teasers, which is now widely available.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to put more value on recent history than what has happened over the past 22 years. The NFL has changed so much due to expansion, free agency, etc. Teams change so much year to year that no one is shocked when a losing team suddenly turns it around and makes a Super Bowl run. Thus handicapping has changed as well.

I think the recent New England dynasty is the exception not the norm. The any given Sunday theory is truer than ever.

My point is that just cause this system has worked well pre 2000, doesn't lead me to believe it will continue to prosper.

I used to do teasers all the time in the 90's. I stay away from them now because there seems to be more chaos in the NFL than back in the day. But that's just my opinion.

3-teamers?
 

I was reading this thread with great interest. Today, there are a handful of NFLX games that meet the criteria (except for the hometeam bit....).

A book of mine has -110 two team teasers, which is obviously undesirable.

For example, if I bet two teams teased 6.5 points for $100, I'll win $91.

however, for three-team teasers, also teased at 6.5 points, the $100 will win $180.

Please correct me if I botched my math here, but isn't that even better than a two teamer at EVEN MONEY? That is, betting $100 to win $100. Then, that third team pays like it comes in at 80% even though in reality it'll come in closer to 70%.

Do I have fuzzy thinking going on here? I don't know what three teamers usually pay, but this seems like a bigger edge.

hd

Re: 3-teamers?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was reading this thread with great interest. Today, there are a handful of NFLX games that meet the criteria (except for the hometeam bit....).

A book of mine has -110 two team teasers, which is obviously undesirable.

For example, if I bet two teams teased 6.5 points for $100, I'll win $91.

however, for three-team teasers, also teased at 6.5 points, the $100 will win $180.

Please correct me if I botched my math here, but isn't that even better than a two teamer at EVEN MONEY? That is, betting $100 to win $100. Then, that third team pays like it comes in at 80% even though in reality it'll come in closer to 70%.

Do I have fuzzy thinking going on here? I don't know what three teamers usually pay, but this seems like a bigger edge.

hd

[/ QUOTE ]

1) The data above comes from the regular season only. Take this as you will. That doesn't mean that it has no significance in the pre-season. I haven't tested it, but it could have even more significance in the pre-season.

2) Get another book that offers them at +100. There is no excuse for paying more than you have to.

3) I have not tested 6.5-point, 7-point, or teasers with more teams. I'm confident that you would see similar results, but I have not tested them, nor do I know what your advantage would be over the house. With more points, you're dealing with slightly different parameters (i.e., you'll be playing up to 9.5 points and down to 1 point with the 7 points).

Long/short advice: Get a book with +100 2-team, 6-point teasers and bet these when both teams are at home in the regular season.

Re: 3-teamers?
 

I'm sorry, I meant 6 pt. teasers, not 6.5. My bad.

Can you look at my math....doesn't the threeteamer provide a better value?

Thanks,

hd

Re: 3-teamers?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, I meant 6 pt. teasers, not 6.5. My bad.

Can you look at my math....doesn't the threeteamer provide a better value?

Thanks,

hd

[/ QUOTE ]

Very slightly, it's easier to gain an advantage over the house when teasing two teams at 6 at +100 than when teasing 3 teams at 6 points at +180. Your break even win rate on individual games needs to be 70.7% rather than 70.9%. You're likely not making a bad bet if you're gaining the 3 and the 7 with 3 teams. Just expect a lot more variance (i.e., short-term swings negative and positive).