Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

It's called the 2/4 rule and Ive never seen it mentioned on these boards. Then again i didn't search either so Im sure it's slipped past me.

To the point... let's say you have flopped a flush draw, meaning you have 9 outs remaining in the deck. Multiply your outs by 4 to get you approximate odds for the turn and river combined; or by 2 to get your approximate odds for the river alone.

Turn/River: 9 x 4 = 36%
River Card: 9 x 2 = 18%

Someone that knows the exact odds will see that this isn't far off at all, actually about a percent. The only flaw in this method is when you get up to many (15+) outs, this method will slightly underestimate your percentage but if you have that many outs you will know what to do [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

Yes, I know of that one.

That is the ghetto way to do it. Plus, you're left with percentages, which is no good. It's better to know if you're getting 8 to 1 or 5 to 1, etc.

Here's a better, more precise way.

On the flop take your outs (we'll use a flush draw with one overcard as an example) and subtract them from the 47 unseen cards remaining (you have 2 in your hand and 3 on the flop (52-5=47)


So you have 12 outs in this example. 47-12 = 35

So there are 35 cards that won't help your hand on the next card and 12 that will, so 35/12 = 2.9 or about 3 to 1 to call.


On the turn you do the same calculations except you now subtract your outs from the 46 unseen cards.

These are of course, the odds of hitting your card on the NEXT street. But to decide your odds of completing by the river from the flop just take the 3 to 1 and divide by 2 and you will hit your flush or overcard 1.5 to 1 on the next two cards to come.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

Here's another way to get exact percentages using the Ghetto method. Take the flush draw on the flop 4x9= 36%

For every number of outs over 8 take that number and subtract it from the number of total outs 9-8= 1 36%-1 = 35% and you get the exact number.

Here it is for 15 outs. 15 x 4= 60%

15-8 = 7 60% -7 = 53%

Your 15 outs are 53% favorite.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

I used to use that but then I realized that I was taking too long to convert to %, then to odds (ie 4.1:1), then compare to pot odds. I drew up a chart of popular odds (flush draw, str8 draw etc) and figured it would take me a few online sessions to memorize. It took me about 10 minutes, and I'm nothing special.

I would suggest memorizing the odds. It's faster. Plus, other than being TV audience friendly, Im not sure why anyone needs to know the percentages.

John

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

i have to say, i really like the "ghetto" way of doing it, it's quick, simple and way easy to remember. i agree the latter way is more realistic, but the ghetto way is great, especially for beginners

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

now this i really like, it's good to know you can get exact percentages this way, thanks!

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

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i have to say, i really like the "ghetto" way of doing it, it's quick, simple and way easy to remember. i agree the latter way is more realistic, but the ghetto way is great, especially for beginners

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I agree.

But you will be able to do it the other way just as fast and easily if you just bother to apply yourself. Practice and time.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

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I would suggest memorizing the odds. It's faster. Plus, other than being TV audience friendly, Im not sure why anyone needs to know the percentages.


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For some thinking in terms of percentages is natural and the conversion to odds-against happens instantly. I'm this way.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

But why percentages? It seems like an uneeded step. Other than using percentage as a step towards Pot odds and showing TV audiences how "Owned" an underdog is, what else is percentages to make your outs help.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just new to poker and not sure what I am missing.

John

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

Why not percentages?

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

Extra step. I'm sure you are lightning fast going from % to odds to Pot odds but if someone is just learning, wouldn't you suggest the most efficient method?

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

Each out is 2% for the next card, or 4% for the next 2 cards

I thought I was SOOOO slick for inventing this very good approximation myself, just based on a chart I have in a book [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I know of that one.

That is the ghetto way to do it. Plus, you're left with percentages, which is no good. It's better to know if you're getting 8 to 1 or 5 to 1, etc.

Here's a better, more precise way.

On the flop take your outs (we'll use a flush draw with one overcard as an example) and subtract them from the 47 unseen cards remaining (you have 2 in your hand and 3 on the flop (52-5=47)


So you have 12 outs in this example. 47-12 = 35

So there are 35 cards that won't help your hand on the next card and 12 that will, so 35/12 = 2.9 or about 3 to 1 to call.


On the turn you do the same calculations except you now subtract your outs from the 46 unseen cards.

These are of course, the odds of hitting your card on the NEXT street. But to decide your odds of completing by the river from the flop just take the 3 to 1 and divide by 2 and you will hit your flush or overcard 1.5 to 1 on the next two cards to come.

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isn't this the lee jones way? i have always found the lee jones way to be faster and more effective then the SSHE method

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

I think it's important to understand the statistics behind it first. Once you know that then you can use shortcuts (I've noticed - so far - that poker books don't give the statistics formu1as).

The samp1e size for turn+river is 2. Because there is no rep1acement, we use the hypergeometric formu1a. So, prob of at 1east one other diamond on turn and river (if 4 diamonds have shown up before) is:

(38) (9) (38) (9)
(1) (1) + (0) (2)
__________________
(47)
(2)

A bit crude I know - the parantheses are supposed to cover each pair (top/bottom) to represent combination. Formu1a for combination is (r!)/k!(r-k)!.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

"It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds of hitting a drawing hand when you're sitting at the poker table. Unless you're a genius with a gift for mathematics like Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do it. That leaves two options for the rest of us: The first option is to sit at home with a calculator, figure out the odds for every possible combination of draws, and then memorize them. That way, no matter what situation comes up, you always know the odds. But for those of us without a perfect memory, there's an easier way. Here is a simple trick for estimating those odds.

The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many "outs" you have. An "out" is any card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the number of cards available that give the hand you are drawing to. For example: suppose you hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c 4c. You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in the deck and you are looking at four of them -- the two in your hand, and the two on the board. That leaves nine clubs left in the deck, and two chances to hit one.


The trick to figuring out the approximate percentage chance of hitting the flush is to multiply your outs times the number of chances to hit it. In this case that would be nine outs multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number, multiply times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate percentage of the time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on that same flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended straight draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four kings and four eights). Eight outs with two cards to come gives you sixteen outs. Multiply times two and you will hit the straight approximately 32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.

One important thing to keep in mind is that the percentage stated is merely the percentage of the time that you will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the percentage of time that you will win the pot. You may hit your hand and still lose. In the first example, the Qc will pair the board and may give somebody a full house. In the second example both the Kc and the 8c will put a possible flush on the board, giving you the straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still, knowing the approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good beginning step on the road to better poker. "

-Clonie Gowen

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

all too hard whilst playing plenty of tables

i multiply my odds by my outs - the number generated represents a number of cards - if the number is less than 30 on the flop i fold - if its between 30-40 i contemplate my implied odds some more - on the turn it nearly always needs to be around 40 or i fold

same job quicker - at least for me it is

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

EAsy - make a chart that tells you how much has to be in the pot with so many outs.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

teamfu have a wallpaper with a pot odds chart on it. It's on my desktop, so I slowly absorb it. Now I just have work on not always assuming "plus two or more outs fold equity from my leet skillz"

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

The reason I prefer percentages is because my poker thinking revolves around pot equity and not outs per se. I like knowing, say, that my draw will come in 35% percent of the time because then I know if I'm only putting in 33% of the money I have an edge and should keep playing. This thinking comes more natural to me and is especially useful in multi-way pots.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

It's only an 'extra step' if you then convert your percentages to odds.. What he's saying, is that there are some people (like myself also) who find it easier just to think in terms of percentages. Perhaps it's the engineering background in me - I don't know. But that's how I function...

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

To convert percentages to odds, take the percentage to make your hand (for flush draw, ~18% on the next card using the "ghetto" method) and subtract that from 100% (100-18=82). Your odds to make it on the next card are 82:18, or about 4:1. That's not far off from the true number, 4.11:1.

InsaniT

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

MY brain seems to understand the % thing much better than trying to figure the odds. I think I am better off quickly finding the %, and converting to odds. To assure I'm doing it correctly, check this out.

I have 2 outs going to the river. That's 5%. Does this give me 19 to 1?

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

Ok, now that this debate is heating, let me introduce a enw subject along the same lines. I am having difficulty understanding the concept behind effective outs. Effective outs are outs that will give you the best hand when u hit.

EXAMPLE.

HERO- QJd
VILLIAN- TsTc

FLOP- 7d8d9

Obviously in this situation a J is not an out, but the diamonds and q's are outs. This is easy to say well i only have 12 outs since my other 3 J are no good, but when we are not able to see the cards and we have put our VILLIAN on a PP (that is not a set and NOT QQ,KK, or AA) then we would be inclined to count the three remaining J as outs also.

My question, how do you figure the odds on effective outs. Someone tried explaining it but I still didnt understand.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

I agree. This was the easiest method in the whole thread.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

I don't like using percentages. They aren't as practical as X:1 format to me. For the poster that mentioned percentages being better for equity, I prefer to think that if my odds are better than 2:1 and I have at least 2 people coming along with me, I have an equity edge. If my odds are better than 3:1 and there are more than 3 people, I have an edge. I can see how percentages would be easier for this for some people, but not me. It also makes it much easier when evaluating calls. If my drawing odds are 4:1 against, I just need to make sure there are at least 4 bets in the pot to justify a call. Much easier (IMO) than trying to figure out if my call will be equal to more or less than 20% of the total pot if I call.

For any number of outs from about 5 to 9, take 13 minus the number of outs. It's an approximation that works fairly well. Not a lot better than just memorizing the odds, but it helped me when I was new, so maybe it will help others too.

Outs.....Approx. Odds......Precise Odds (River)
5................8:1...............8.2:1
6................7:1...............6.7:1
7................6:1...............5.6:1
8................5:1...............4.8:1
9................4:1...............4.1:1

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

I've found that most people think in terms of the ratio - 5:1 etc. But there are a few people, myself included, who, for whatever reason, think in terms of percentages.

I can't "get" the ratio bit for the life of me, but I totally understand, say, 33 percent to hit my outs. And, it's the way I started as a beginner, so it has nothing to do with beginning player versus experienced player.

P.S. because my brain doesn't process the ratio, when I have used it I found myself just converting it to percentages anyway, so it ends up being a waste of time, just the same way that for many of you percentages are a waste of time because you would convert it back to a ratio. Six one way, half a dozen the other.

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

A slightly more accurate way to get the percentage on the next card is to multiply by 2 and then add 1. Thus, 10 outs gives you:

10 x 2 = 20 plus 1 = 21 percent. (Actual percentage is 21.3 percent.)

Re: Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, now that this debate is heating, let me introduce a enw subject along the same lines. I am having difficulty understanding the concept behind effective outs. Effective outs are outs that will give you the best hand when u hit.

EXAMPLE.

HERO- QJd
VILLIAN- TsTc

FLOP- 7d8d9

Obviously in this situation a J is not an out, but the diamonds and q's are outs. This is easy to say well i only have 12 outs since my other 3 J are no good, but when we are not able to see the cards and we have put our VILLIAN on a PP (that is not a set and NOT QQ,KK, or AA) then we would be inclined to count the three remaining J as outs also.

My question, how do you figure the odds on effective outs. Someone tried explaining it but I still didnt understand.

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You discount your three jacks if you dont think they're a cinch. Instead of calling them three full outs, you say they're worth about half, or 1.5. The number you come up with isnt as important as the logic you use to estimate it. IE how did this guy play the hand that makes me think a pair of Jacks wont win?