Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

Party Poker (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with XX
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>
Hero raises to 6$, Button calls

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>.
- 15$ Pot
Hero bets 10$, Button calls

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
- 35$ Pot
Hero checks, Button bets 20$, Hero raises to 60$, Button calls

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
- 155$ Pot
???? I have 141.80$ behind, Button has me covered
My actual hand is meaningless, but it is so weak it cant win when called and it cant win when the hand is checked down...
Like T6o

OK some history:
This hand is from 1tabling 200$ NL 6-max on party. I sometimes 1table and play very laggy to improve my reads.
I often get in difficult situations like these, where I have to decide whether to bluff all-in or check and lose guaranteed... But thats the idea behind it.

Button: I have only 55 hands on him in Pokertracker
VPIP 29.09, PFR 5.45, A_Tot 3.35
He never coldcalled a preflop-raise before that hand...
I've only seen 4 showdown hands of him:
- 2 BB Ace-Rag, where it got checked down
- One AKo hand: He raised to 6$ from the SB preflop, 1 caller; Flop QT3, 14$ pot, he bets 10$ into it and checks it down after that, Final Board: T3Q9K, 3 hearts
- One JTo hand: He limps UTG and then calls a preflop minraise... Flop: J87, 22$ Pot; He bets 5$ into 4 other players, 2 callers
Turn: J872 ragged, He bets 5$ again, 2 callers
River: J8726 ragged, He checks it down and wins

MY table image:
Like I said I'm lagging it up...
VPIP: 34.55, PFR: 23.64, betting around 50% of all flops
- I already got caught on an awful looking bluff, where I had raised T2o preflop from button, bet pot on flop, checked the turn, and raised a small river bet: He had hit a quite good hidden two pair and called it down...
- The session has been unlucky to this point; I think I correctly folded AA 2times and KK 1 time; I'm down 180$ in 45 hands... I have not won a single showdown

Possible timing tells:
Flop: He called my bet rather quickly

Turn: He didnt think much about betting, and called my reraise very quick. It felt like the donkeys who flush-draw or have weak top pair who just want to see the next card...

OK now you have the same information as me... For the mathematical minded: What range of hands do you put him on with what percentages? The intuitive players like me may just say if they push the river or not [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Or you could say, that in the internet, with so few hands against opponent, the general crazyness of even tight preflop players on party, it's impossible to tell what to do and one should just stick to 4tabling, hoping for sets, flushes, straights and safe overpairs.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

Not sure what you hope to accomplish here with a T-high. Check/fold and move on to the next hand. Him calling the big turn check-raise means he's got you beat and will almost certainly call the river.

[ QUOTE ]
I think I correctly folded AA 2times and KK 1 time; I'm down 180$ in 45 hands... I have not won a single showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

45 hands, 3 premium pairs, and all "correct folds" at 6-max? I have trouble believing that; maybe you should post those hands for review.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

What are you trying to represent with the turn c/r? If youre playing it like an overpair a turn lead river push is much better.
The turn c/r for that tiny amount only screws yourself since you are then forced to bluff the river if you want to winn

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

Yeah, I agree with Toby. I think that considering your play with T2 and T6, you're ability to read hands is not as high as it could be. It sounds like you are bluffing a lot but playing like that is not going to earn you a lot of money because if they have something, they are going to call, if they don't, then they won't. Once your image gets really loose then their hand requirements against you will lower. This is where you should tighten up and play some monster hands really fast. You will likely get paid off quickly especially if you have shown that you will bluff with T2o. JMO. GL.

-101

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

i'd go with the readers here....if your image is uber lag he's calling with any piece of this board...so a river bluff is likely not going to work and is going to cost you more money. Checking down here at least gives you some advertising...now that you have set up a loose image, tighten up a bit and play some big hands agressively....if you image was super lag though i'm wondering about the 3 premium pairs you folded...you could have been getting played back at by total garbage given your image.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

@toby:
"Not sure what you hope to accomplish here with a T-high."
Push all-in, if he folds it doesnt matter how good my hand was [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

"Him calling the big turn check-raise means he's got you beat and will almost certainly call the river."

This is too vague. This thread is only about hand reading when 1 tabling. "almost certainly" means nothing. What hand do you put him on, what hand do you honestly think he will call that river?

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In Antwort auf:</font><hr />
.if your image is uber lag he's calling with any piece of this board...so a river bluff is likely not going to work and is going to cost you more money

[/ QUOTE ]

No way I dont believe it. Normally a seemingly tight player like him does not call a 140$ push on the river with "any piece of the board". Though I had been lagging it up, I did not make any real stupid errors before this hand... The one time I got caught bluffing it was a rather tiny pot, its not like he thinks he is playing against a drunk maniac.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

Villian has a hand, either 55, 67, or JJ.
Either way, he takes you for a maniac and is calling you down. The turn check-raise looks like you're trying to blow him off his hand. Give up the pot because he's calling you down on the river.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

alright, you can't put him on a "hand" but you can put him on a range here.

first off, is this guy a total donkey, meaning would he call that turn checkraise with a diamond draw? I'm guessing no, but a missed draw would fold to your push and it likely would beat 10 high if he called but I don't think that's likely.

Given the action I think he could have 99 - JJ. He would almost certainly have reraised any other hand, especially against a lag. He would call a checkraise with these on that board as well. He could have trips, but I don't see him calling the raise with that. He could have a full house with a flopped or turned set and is letting you bet it for him. He could have just a pair of 8's, maybe a diamond draw with A8 that turned top pair, finally he could have 67 or something similar. The reason I put him on all these hands is that i'm assuming he's not a donk and is not chasing a naked diamond draw without at least a pair.

You said in your original post that you were playing super laggy but now you are retracting this a little. I had a guy at my table playing super laggy last night and people were calling him down with a pair of 8's on a JQ296 board...stuff like that so don't discount the fact that this guy will call because if he calls 60 on the turn, the ONLY thing that doesn't call that river push is a missed diamond draw. Personally I think you are behind here most likely to a straight or two pair (jj-99). I think he calls as you've been laggy he thinks you are on missed overs or a missed diamond draw which is also what the river push could look like.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In Antwort auf:</font><hr />
Villian has a hand, either 55, 67, or JJ.
Either way, he takes you for a maniac and is calling you down. The turn check-raise looks like you're trying to blow him off his hand. Give up the pot because he's calling you down on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah thats the kind of post I want to see [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
It would be cool if you could include some percentages, in my opinion overpair like JJ,TT would be a fold, even if he perceives me as a LAG... I think 55 is more likely than 76, because I have never seen him coldcall me, and hands like 76 do come often....

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

"first off, is this guy a total donkey, meaning would he call that turn checkraise with a diamond draw? I'm guessing no, but a missed draw would fold to your push and it likely would beat 10 high if he called but I don't think that's likely."

Theoretically you know him as good as I know him, because I included all hands/facts I knew about him at that time at in my original post. However I understand that nearly nobody reads full posts (I dont do either).

In my opinion he is a tight, serious player, who can fold.
I dont know how his play changes against a LAG, but he was 4-tabling and its possible that he wont adjust too much.

If he would call with everything except a missed flush draw - I dont know. I'm neither very good at hand reading than at estimating people [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

All in all I agree with your analysis. The range of hands is the same, but I considered this hand interesting because I think he would fold everything except straight + full house + 3 of a kind there.

So its important to know how often he will have 99-JJ (or even a crazy played AA/KK ?) there. Would be cool if you put up some percentages, I have no real idea.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

It's really a mathematic exercise to give him a percentage of each hand based on hand distribution etc that I don't want to go into. Also, the fact that he called a huge turn checkraise skews these numbers in my opinion given the fact that he called. If I had to guess here i'd put him on something like

Missed diamonds - 5% (only because I don't think he calls that chckraise with them)
X-8 or X-5 of diamonds 20%
55,88 or a 4 - 25%
99-JJ &amp; 66-77 - 25%
67 - 15%
23 - 5%
AA-QQ - 5% (only because I think he'd raise unless he was trapping)

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

Great post.

Can't give you %, but I'm not pushing the river. The only thing he's folding is a missed flush draw imo.

Turn check/raise is the problem, it's setting of the BS detector. When you've got a low trips draw board and a flat caller on the flop, you don't check the turn if you have any kind of a hand. And then you make a big check raise into a weak turn bet...I put you squarely on overcards or stone bluffing at this point.

Because of this, I'm not pushing the river. Had you led the turn for the full pot I would't hesitate potting the river.

And I have no idea what he has, your guess is as good as mine.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

Try it 50 times and you'll realize that it's extremely unprofitable. Trust me I've tried it alot and it is/ hopefully was one of my major leaks in my game. I play a very laggy game and have been slaughtering 200NL 6Max 4-tabling 9 PTBB/100 and the trick to playing good lag isn't trying to bluff at every paired board. It's to be willing to call their all-in bets on nonthreatening boards with top pair no kicker hands and rarely ever folding an overpair b/c their hand values get lowered extensively by your aggression. The reason Lag is so profitable is that it lowers you opponents hand values drastically and increases the number of bluffs they run against you --allowing normally unprofitable hands like QJo or 10 8o to become profitable while increasing the action you get on your big hands.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What hand do you put him on, what hand do you honestly think he will call that river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's got an overpair (99-JJ) or he flopped a full house.

All-in-all, he's got something and if you are LAGing and he knows it you will be called on the river. check/fold.

And as others have said or indicated, only bluff like this when your image is real tight, and wait for big hands to be LAG with if your image is LAG. You will just lose money when you bluff with T2, get called down, and then try it again with T6.

Re: Am I the only one who sucks at hand reading?
 

OK interesting analysis!
Here are the results:
I got afraid and had no idea what he had, he ultra-fast checked behind me (like the players who have the check-fold box on) and won the hand with JJ
Most of you knew what he had, I did not. After I saw his JJ I immediately thought "Damn you should have pushed"...