The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

Being a self-important prick, I figured I should open up a thread like the "Ask Bison" ones in OOT. Big difference is that mine is going to be about fantasy football, because that's pretty much the only thing I know anything about.

All reasonable questions will be answered except those involving defenses (including individual defensive players) because the best way to use a defense is to pick a new one every week based on how bad of a team they are facing.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

how do you rate the top 25 rb's based on a td-6pt, 10yd-1pt standard league,

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
how do you rate the top 25 rb's based on a td-6pt, 10yd-1pt standard league,

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I generally don't go in with an actual list, and draft by the seat of my pants. But I have some rough tiers in mind and draft accordingly.

LT is #1, and in a class by himself.

The second grouping is Alexaner, Holmes, Edge, McGahee. They each have a significant question surrounding them, but are so good that they stand above the rest.

Next, I tend to favor the younger guys who have shown they they are good: Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Rudi Johnson, Domanick Davis.

Then I have the youngish vets who are all good and could either soar or crumble -- and even if they do fall, absent due to injury, they'll still put up good numbers. Tiki Barber (although he could be in another category), Jamal Lewis, Deuce McAllister, Clinton Portis, Ahman Green, and Brian Westbrook are all here.

After them is a group of young RBs who are not as proven. These guys should honestly be drafted at about the same point as the group above, to taste: Tatum Bell*, Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson, and JJ Arrington are here. I'm tempted to add Carnell Williams to this category, but I want to hear Gruden name him the starter first. But for sake of argument, let's includ him here.

You'll note Bell is asterisked above. That is because while I'm rather sure he'll start, it's hardly a lock as of yet.

Finally, there's Corey Dillon, Curtis Martin, and to a lesser degree, Jerome Bettis. I'll take these guys before I take almost any WR, but I'm not really willing to bank my season on them.

That's 23. I'd go with DeShaun Foster and Michael Bennett to round it out, but the fact is that I'm less likely to take them than many others would because I really hate losing a top 5 round draft pick to injury, and because neither has a clear backup.

I find it sad that Marshall Faulk did not make this list.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

Oh no...

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

I have a poor team team in a league that keeps six players each year.

The only serviceable running back that I have is Chris Brown. I get first pick in the upcoming draft. Assuming that all proven Running Backs will be kept and only rookies are available, which one should I pick?

The league scores 6 points for a TD
1 point for 15 yards rushing or receiving
1/2 point per catch.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

I can't say that i disagree with your analysis to any large extent. FWIW, i have Dillion about 10 spots higher and am not as high on Lewis and Westbrook, but like you say, it's a matter of taste.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

I was watching ESPN the other day and they were talking about Westbrook in reference to there being trouble in camp with him. I didn't see the report and didn't see anything in ESPN's NFL page. Is there anything or am I imagining things?

Is Tatum Bell going to be the RB in Denver?

What do you think of Antonio Gates continuing his dominance?

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

JJ Arrington. High upside, good chance of starting, big play potential.

Also, a guy like LaMont Jordan has a high likelihood of going "unkept".

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

Westbrook is not in camp.

I think that Gates will do at least as much as 90% of what he did last year. The bolts really didn't upgrade at WR, so they'll still look to him, esp. in the redzone.

RB situation in Denver, I think, is unresolved right now. I know that Clarett's contract has little or no guaranteed money, but a lot of incentives (by his choice). He plans on earning a lot of incentives, so he may be getting carries...I don't know if any other RBs are in the mix.

Josh

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

What kind of #'s do you think Culpepper will put up this year?

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
I figured I should open up a thread like the "Ask Bison" ones in OOT. Big difference is that mine is going to be about fantasy football, because that's pretty much the only thing I know anything about.


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I generally don't go in with an actual list, and draft by the seat of my pants.

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Bwahahahahaha.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

Just drafted my first team on the free yahoo fantasy footabll just the ones for fun.

I am thinking about doing a couple of small price money buy in leagues, any advice on where should i go to sign up ? I dont want to spend more than $50 or so, but a chance to win something.

In the past i have done a lot of free leauges just for fun and i'm a huge football fan in general so i keep up to date on everything.

My other question is what do u think of my first team i drafted:

Dakota Dawgs
1. (3) P. Manning
2. (18) T. Owens
3. (23) T. Bell
4. (38) L. Coles
5. (43) R. Johnson
6. (58) T. Heap
7. (63) D. Mason
8. (78) Atlanta
9. (83) C. Benson
10. (98) New England
11. (103) S. Moss
12. (118) J. Wilkins
13. (123) C. Pennington
14. (138) Ma. Clayton
15. (143) T. Duckett

And my last question what sleepers do u predict this year ? anyone to get in the latter rounds that might be left over.

thanks,

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kasey [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I figured I should open up a thread like the "Ask Bison" ones in OOT. Big difference is that mine is going to be about fantasy football, because that's pretty much the only thing I know anything about.


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I generally don't go in with an actual list, and draft by the seat of my pants.

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Bwahahahahaha.

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If you had phrased this as a question, I'd have defended my reasoning [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have a poor team team in a league that keeps six players each year.

The only serviceable running back that I have is Chris Brown. I get first pick in the upcoming draft. Assuming that all proven Running Backs will be kept and only rookies are available, which one should I pick?

The league scores 6 points for a TD
1 point for 15 yards rushing or receiving
1/2 point per catch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Arrington's my guy, unless you are not aiming to compete this year, in which case I'd probably go with Williams. (In fact, Williams may be the better option either way.)

You should also go after Ryan Moats if you can, for next year, but obviously not very early.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was watching ESPN the other day and they were talking about Westbrook in reference to there being trouble in camp with him. I didn't see the report and didn't see anything in ESPN's NFL page. Is there anything or am I imagining things?

Is Tatum Bell going to be the RB in Denver?

What do you think of Antonio Gates continuing his dominance?

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Westbrook isn't in camp but I'm not overly concerned with his absence. He's the only real backfield option in Philly -- Moats isn't going to start and Buckhalter can't provide the same type of passing game. And the Eagles are ready to let him walk next year anyway, so I fully expect them to use him until he breaks.

As for Bell, your guess is as good as mine. Normally I'd say that it has to be Bell, but this is Denver. I'm confident enough that he'll be the start that I'll grab him without hesitation in the second round, especially if I'm drafting toward the end of the second round (and am therefore more inclinded to take high risk, high reward players).

Gates is going to be a beast for years to come. He's in the same division as Gonzo, on a team with a bad defense, a great RB who is a great receiver, and an octogenarian third option in the passing game. He's basically Tony Gonzalez II. That said, I think he's most likely to put up about 800 yards and 7 or 8 TDs, making him better than your typical #2 WR and with a higher upside. I'd expect him to go in the third round to mid-forth, and that's slightly too high. The real question is whether his selection will cause an echo effect, resulting in Gonzo and Witten (and potentially Heap) going as well.

I'd probably aim for Witten at 6 and if he's gone already, not take a TE until a very late-round pick if at all.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

If I pass on Ron Dayne at #1 overall do you think I'll be able to grab him at 20? I dunno, seems risky...

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

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What kind of #'s do you think Culpepper will put up this year?

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I'm using Pro Football Prospectus for my projections and don't want to spread their information here; buy the book, that's how they get paid.

But I did run my own for Culpepper (for reasons not worth going into), and put him at about 3800 yards, 27-31 TDs, and probably 8-13 INTs.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just drafted my first team on the free yahoo fantasy footabll just the ones for fun.

I am thinking about doing a couple of small price money buy in leagues, any advice on where should i go to sign up ? I dont want to spend more than $50 or so, but a chance to win something.

In the past i have done a lot of free leauges just for fun and i'm a huge football fan in general so i keep up to date on everything.

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There's a ton of collusion on many of the public ones. Find a group of friends.

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My other question is what do u think of my first team i drafted:

Dakota Dawgs
1. (3) P. Manning
2. (18) T. Owens
3. (23) T. Bell
4. (38) L. Coles
5. (43) R. Johnson
6. (58) T. Heap
7. (63) D. Mason
8. (78) Atlanta
9. (83) C. Benson
10. (98) New England
11. (103) S. Moss
12. (118) J. Wilkins
13. (123) C. Pennington
14. (138) Ma. Clayton
15. (143) T. Duckett


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Why do you have a backup defense? Are you afraid your starting defense is going to get hurt?

As everything else, there are a lot of guys who you took too high (both defenses, Heap, potential Bell and Coles depending on who was left) and a lot of steals (Rudi at 43? Wow. -- and Duckett in the 15th is incredible.) And I don't like rookie receivers, Clayton may work for you because he was a polished college receiver and he basically backs up one of your starters.

If you are starting three WRs, your lineup is Manning, Rudi, Bell, TO, Coles, Mason, Heap, Wilkins, and a defense. In a ten-team league, it's pretty good but very boom or bust.

Because of this, you are going to find it difficult to improve the team. There are only about six WRs you'd rather have than Mason/Coles, and you may not have the assets to get such a player. I'd package Penny and Coles to get a guy like Torry Holt if I could, though.

Oh, and Pennington has to go. There are only two cases in which you would ever start him: an injury to Manning or on Manning's bye. Well, Peyton doesn't get injured all that often and Pennington is rarely healthy, so you missed the boat there. And they share the same bye week.

You want to take this chart and bookmark it or something.

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And my last question what sleepers do u predict this year ? anyone to get in the latter rounds that might be left over.


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I haven't put my list together yet as most of my drafts are still a few weeks away. Plus, my sleeper-discovery system is rather long, but thankfully outlined on pages 398-403 of Pro Football Prospectus.

If you demand a quick, off the cuff list, here goes:
Carson Palmer, TJ Duckett, LaBrandon Toefield, Frank Gore, Ronald Curry, Keenan McCardell, Antwaan Randle El, Kevin Curts, Erron Kinney, and Doug Jolley.

I'm sure I'm missing many, but again, I haven't put any sort of list together.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I pass on Ron Dayne at #1 overall do you think I'll be able to grab him at 20? I dunno, seems risky...

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In a ten-team league, he may be there for your second pick. But there's no way he'll be there in a fourteen-team league, because he'll die of starvation beforehand.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

So, you really wouldnt recommend doing a public $39.99 or $49.99 leauge at all for collusion ?

I thought that public leagues were put together at random, and dont alot of places give everyone in the league a chance to veto an uneven trade ? or is that just yahoo ?


[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kasey [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, you really wouldnt recommend doing a public $39.99 or $49.99 leauge at all for collusion ?

I thought that public leagues were put together at random, and dont alot of places give everyone in the league a chance to veto an uneven trade ? or is that just yahoo ?

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As people fall out of contention, the better teams tend to contact the lesser ones in order to make deals, oftentimes offering some sort of non-football compensation (read: money) if the better team wins. Because lesser teams drop out, they're not around to veto these trades.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

Here's my roster: I think it needs some help, but I don't know where to go with it to plug those holes.

Draft order (11 teams):
10 - P. Holmes RB
13 - D. McAllister RB
30 - J. Walker WR
33 - A. Johnson WR
50 - D. Brees QB
53 - M. Vanderjact K
70 - A. Brooks QB
73 - Atlanta D
90 - D. Foster RB
93 - A. Lelie WR
110 - E. Johnson TE
113 - M. Bennett RB
130 - M. Anderson RB
133 - L. Coles WR

My plan with the RBs, is to see if any of my three backups have a huge game or two and then trade them for a good TE/WR.

Duckett is availbe, as well as: T. Jones, T. Henry for RB (worth mentioning)

WRs - L. Evans, T. Houshmandzadeh, D. Givens.

After the first week starts, we pay $1/trade to get a little more in the prize pool. So, this is the time to make my biggest adjustments. (Also, the reason I'm stacking questionable RBs right now.)

So, I guess the only question is whether or not I should pick up Duckett and/or drop a current RB for something else.

(and feel free to critize my draft ... it was insane I tell ya. Kickers were going in the third round, TEs in the fourth. It was pretty challenging to select players at the proper times.)

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

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Finally, there's Corey Dillon, Curtis Martin, and to a lesser degree, Jerome Bettis. I'll take these guys before I take almost any WR, but I'm not really willing to bank my season on them.



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Dillon and Martin in a class with Bettis? Are you nuts? Bettis ahead of Staley? Not sure why you are down on Dillon and Martin, but both are as steady as they come. I actually expect a big year out of Dillon.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my roster: I think it needs some help, but I don't know where to go with it to plug those holes.

Draft order (11 teams):
10 - P. Holmes RB
13 - D. McAllister RB
30 - J. Walker WR
33 - A. Johnson WR
50 - D. Brees QB
53 - M. Vanderjact K
70 - A. Brooks QB
73 - Atlanta D
90 - D. Foster RB
93 - A. Lelie WR
110 - E. Johnson TE
113 - M. Bennett RB
130 - M. Anderson RB
133 - L. Coles WR


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Brees is probably too early at 50, because there are plenty of guys who are very similar that you can get three rounds later (such as Aaron Brooks). And there's virtually no need to take a backup QB. Also, don't draft defenses, kickers, or TEs. You can get servicable replacements on waivers after the draft. (Obviously, that doesn't apply if Akers, Vinny, or Vandy are available really late, or if Gonzo, Witten, or Gates are available in round six or seven.)

What else? I don't see any reason to take Mike Anderson. He's 32 and they have a bundle of RBs -- there are probably better guys to pick up (see Duckett, TJ).

I like the rest of your draft and am shocked that Coles lasted so long.

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My plan with the RBs, is to see if any of my three backups have a huge game or two and then trade them for a good TE/WR.

Duckett is availbe, as well as: T. Jones, T. Henry for RB (worth mentioning)

WRs - L. Evans, T. Houshmandzadeh, D. Givens.



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Cut your defense for Evans.

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After the first week starts, we pay $1/trade to get a little more in the prize pool. So, this is the time to make my biggest adjustments. (Also, the reason I'm stacking questionable RBs right now.)

So, I guess the only question is whether or not I should pick up Duckett and/or drop a current RB for something else.


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You want to make as many two for one trades as possible. Package Brooks and a RB for someone better, two RBs for a WR, whatever. Use the extra space to pick up TJ Housawhatever, Duckett, Henry, and a defense.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

Taking a kicker where you did is terrible. The difference between the best kicker in the league and the 11th (11 team league, right? no one's drafting TWO kickers, are they?) is more than made up for by the fact that you'll be getting a quality position player while other people are wasting early and middle rounders on kickers. It's particularly bad considering that picking which kicker is going to produce from year to year is basically impossible.

I'm also a proponent of the rotating defense strategy, although having the Steelers last year was really nice for me.

-McGee

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Finally, there's Corey Dillon, Curtis Martin, and to a lesser degree, Jerome Bettis. I'll take these guys before I take almost any WR, but I'm not really willing to bank my season on them.



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Dillon and Martin in a class with Bettis? Are you nuts? Bettis ahead of Staley? Not sure why you are down on Dillon and Martin, but both are as steady as they come. I actually expect a big year out of Dillon.

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Dillon: Age 31, 345 carries (plus 65 in the post season)
Martin: Age 32, 371 carries
Bettis: Age 33, hasn't topped 250 carries in years, but still scores 7++ TDs.
Staley: Age 30, coming off injury, has never been really that good.

The first two are likely to take a step back, Bettis is likely to put up 600 yards and 7 TDs at a minimum, and may have a lot of touchdowns like he did last year.

Staley will be splitting carries and not those of the goal-line variety.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column (low content)
 

(Just to give you a sense of the insanity of the draft to put a few of my picks in context, here are the first three rounds, this doesn't really need a reply. It's just for entertainment. My picks are bolded. (and I guess it's a 10 person draft, not 11 like I said before)

This post has really low content, but wtf ...

Round 1
1. P. Manning
2. L. Tomlinson
3. D. McNabb
4. D. Culpepper
5. T. Green
6. S. Alexander
7. M. Harrison
8. E. James
9. P. Holmes
10. W. McGahee

Round 2
11. T. Owens
12. D McAllister
13. J. Lewis
14. M. Vick
15. C. Dillion
16. J. Jone
17. C. Johnson
18. T. Bell
19. K. Collins
20. B. Westbrook

Round 3
21. R. Wayne
22. T. Holt
23. H. Ward
24. T. Gonzalez
25. R. Moss
26. A. Gates
27. C. Martin
28. R. Johnson
29. J. Walker
30. T. Brady


I hope that was enjoyable.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column (low content)
 

i guess there are fish in FF, too


5. T. Green


7. M. Harrison

14. M. Vick

19. K. Collins



30. T. Brady

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

I'll go with others and post my roster. I like its chances this year, but I always seem to have the injury bug hit me harder than anyone in my league...

QBs - Donovan McNabb, Chad Pennington (new O.C.)

RBs - Clinton Portis, Michael Bennett (as the feature for the Vikes), Marshall Faulk, Michael Pittman, and Dominic Rhodes all as backups (with Faulk and Rhodes only if something happens to the other RB on the team).

WRs - Andre Johnson and Ashley Lelie as starters, Keary Colbert, Donte Stallworth, and Robert Ferguson as backups.

TE - Jeremy Shockey, with Jeb Putzier of Denver as backup.

Kickers - Janikowski, with Lawrence Tynes for sleeper potential.

Defense - New England

I like it. I've been to my league's title game two years running, but have yet to win the thing. This is my year. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

How's this? It's a 10-team FLEX league.

QB: Hasselmonster, Kerry
RB: Tiki, Domanick, Bennett, Goings, Gore, Pittman
WR: Reggie Wayne, Darrell Jackson, Anquan, Rod Smith, TJ Whosyerdaddy
TE: Witten
D: Eagles
K: Kasay

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column (low content)
 

[ QUOTE ]
i guess there are fish in FF, too


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Awesome.

And it's not like it was one person ... it was half of the league.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'll go with others and post my roster. I like its chances this year, but I always seem to have the injury bug hit me harder than anyone in my league...

QBs - Donovan McNabb, Chad Pennington (new O.C.)

RBs - Clinton Portis, Michael Bennett (as the feature for the Vikes), Marshall Faulk, Michael Pittman, and Dominic Rhodes all as backups (with Faulk and Rhodes only if something happens to the other RB on the team).

WRs - Andre Johnson and Ashley Lelie as starters, Keary Colbert, Donte Stallworth, and Robert Ferguson as backups.

TE - Jeremy Shockey, with Jeb Putzier of Denver as backup.

Kickers - Janikowski, with Lawrence Tynes for sleeper potential.

Defense - New England

I like it. I've been to my league's title game two years running, but have yet to win the thing. This is my year. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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man, that's a great roster....for a 20 team league.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]


Dillon: Age 31, 345 carries (plus 65 in the post season)
Martin: Age 32, 371 carries
Bettis: Age 33, hasn't topped 250 carries in years, but still scores 7++ TDs.
Staley: Age 30, coming off injury, has never been really that good.

The first two are likely to take a step back, Bettis is likely to put up 600 yards and 7 TDs at a minimum, and may have a lot of touchdowns like he did last year.

Staley will be splitting carries and not those of the goal-line variety.

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You are out of your mind. Last years stats:

Martin-1697 yds, 13 total tds
Dillon-1635 yds, 13 total tds

Both are clear cut starters. Even if both rush for 400 yards less and 4 touchdowns less they are far more valuable than Bettis. Bettis isn't the starter in Pittsburgh. If you remember, he was the backup until Staley got hurt. Sure he might get some goal line tds (I'll be generous and say 9 tds), but he won't get any yardage. Staley was and still is the starter. There is about a 5 round difference between Dillon & Martin compared to Bettis.

My roster
 

Here are the results of the draft I just did:

QB: Hasselbeck
RB: Alexander, KJones, Bell, Westbrook, Bettis, Duckett, Gore, Travis Henry
WR: Holt, Mason, Lelie, Fitzgerald, Evans, McCardell

I don't have a TE, PK, or DEF. I had the second pick in the draft and therefore lost out on Witten in round 6, so I'll plug a body into the TE slot. The notable PKs available are Josh Brown, Jason Hanson, Doug Brien, and John Carney. Suffice it to say I am not worried that one will be available.

On edit: Noticed that I left Lee Evans off this roster.

Re: My roster
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here are the results of the draft I just did:

QB: Hasselbeck
RB: Alexander, KJones, Bell, Westbrook, Bettis, Duckett, Gore, Travis Henry
WR: Holt, Mason, Lelie, Fitzgerald, Evans, McCardell

I don't have a TE, PK, or DEF. I had the second pick in the draft and therefore lost out on Witten in round 6, so I'll plug a body into the TE slot. The notable PKs available are Josh Brown, Jason Hanson, Doug Brien, and John Carney. Suffice it to say I am not worried that one will be available.

On edit: Noticed that I left Lee Evans off this roster.

[/ QUOTE ]

I now expect Soss to come and lick my shoes as he looks over this drafting strategy [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

12 teams, with 2 keepers per. Mine were Donovan and Clinton. In other words, a lot of the real top talent was gone, along with the fact that I had the next to last pick in the first round, etc. etc.

Bennett stays healthy, you could see big things.

Andre Johnson and Ashley Lelie: Johnson is the go-to guy for David Carr, and Lelie is set up for a breakout year in Denver.

Shockey is probably one of the top 4 TEs in the league, and Eli will be going to him a lot. He's going to line up in the slot frequently too.

Jano has the strongest leg in the league, and the Oakland offense will score a ton. New England is still one of the top defenses.

My backups suck. That's ok. They're not there to win a ton of games for me. They're serviceable, basically, in an emergency.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

Another draft just went like this....

QB Hasselbeck
RB James, Domanick, Duckett, Benson, Gore, Foster
WR Johnson, Wayne, Coles, Rod Smith, David Givens, Donald Drive
TE LJ Smith
D/ST: Bengals
K: Jeff Reed

this is an espn league where you HAVE to draft a TE, D, and K..

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

makes more sense since it was a keeper.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

[ QUOTE ]
Another draft just went like this....

QB Hasselbeck
RB James, Domanick, Duckett, Benson, Gore, Foster
WR Johnson, Wayne, Coles, Rod Smith, David Givens, Donald Drive
TE LJ Smith
D/ST: Bengals
K: Jeff Reed

this is an espn league where you HAVE to draft a TE, D, and K..

[/ QUOTE ]

weird, that's almost a carbon copy of one of my teams from last year: hasselbeck, ddavis, edge, wayne, except i had Horn instead of Ajohnson.

Re: The Fantasy Football Advice Column
 

That's Chad Johnson, actually.