Two Plus Two Older Archives - Color by numbers: It's gonna be a looooooong ride...

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- - Color by numbers: It's gonna be a looooooong ride... (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=307093)

Entity

08-03-2005 06:53 PM

Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

UTG is loose, slightly on the passive side. The first coldcaller is even looser, and very passive.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises, MP (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, CO folds, Button folds, Hero...

baronzeus

08-03-2005 06:54 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

This may not be as straightforward as it seems, but I call till the river and hope to catch the 2nd nuts? I think they are good often enough.

SomethingClever

08-03-2005 07:00 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

Why didn't you bet the flop?

Entity

08-03-2005 07:02 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I'm reasonably sure I don't have the best hand and I'm getting raised on this flop, I dunno, about 100% of the time?

Rob

SomethingClever

08-03-2005 07:10 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

Cancuk

08-03-2005 07:29 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

this is hard.
i would start crying, pull up my panties and call until i hit the 2nd nuts, and lose.

cheers.

jba	08-03-2005 07:29 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I'm reasonably sure I don't have the best hand and I'm getting raised on this flop, I dunno, about 100% of the time?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

if you raise, it is doubtful that this is going to get capped -- they are just going to let you lead the turn into them. so there is no information to be gained by 3betting. even if it does all it will tell us is that UTG is charging with his set of kings or a flush or a flush draw. we're reasonably certain MP has a made flush.

it's obvious the question is call or fold so let's call and see the turn. we have decent equity and an out to the nuts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

jba	08-03-2005 07:31 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

[ QUOTE ]
this is hard.
i would start crying, pull up my panties and call until i hit the 2nd nuts, and lose.

cheers.

[/ QUOTE ]

we can hit the stone cold nuts here lets shoot for that

dont jinx it bro

Cancuk

08-03-2005 07:32 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I'm reasonably sure I don't have the best hand and I'm getting raised on this flop, I dunno, about 100% of the time?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

if you raise, it is doubtful that this is going to get capped --

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it would get capped.

Entity

08-03-2005 07:35 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I'm reasonably sure I don't have the best hand and I'm getting raised on this flop, I dunno, about 100% of the time?

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

But don't you still have a lot of equity? And wouldn't UTG raising potentially knock out some 3 and 4-outers?

Just asking.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much do I care about knocking out a 3 or 4 outer when I'm behind?

Rob

Entity

08-03-2005 07:38 PM

Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

Ok. So the flop was kinda easy I think I called two, UTG 3-bet, and MP capped. I called two more. Woo. Now we get the fun stuff.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises, MP (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG 3-bets, MP caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, Hero...

tongni

08-03-2005 07:40 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

Lead the flop, you have a decent amount of equity. Fold the turn.

Alobar

08-03-2005 07:45 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

Dude, thats just not even right, what kinda ugly board is that? Didnt you listen to anyone here, they told you to hit a club, not pair the board [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] given the action I think you can fold.

p.s. I would have led the flop

Entity

08-03-2005 07:45 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

[ QUOTE ]
Lead the flop, you have a decent amount of equity. Fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a lot of situations where I don't have a decent amount of equity. Consider me not convinced by your blanket statement that "I have lots of equity."

Rob

Cancuk

08-03-2005 07:45 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. So the flop was kinda easy I think I called two, UTG 3-bet, and MP capped. I called two more. Woo. Now we get the fun stuff.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises, MP (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG 3-bets, MP caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

folds.

cold_cash

08-03-2005 08:13 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

It's possible you're drawing live against a smaller flush from MP, but I think the possibility of drawing dead to UTG is even more prominent.

HE could have KK, JJ, or AA w/ a club pretty easily, and it's gonna be spendy if he does.

Also, if you make your hand you can't be too pumped about a lot of river action.

It sucks, but I'd fold it.

JKDStudent

08-03-2005 08:27 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

I call and call. The flop call because we have outs to the second nuts and an out to the nuts.

The turn, I call again. We're getting ~10:1. We're only drawing dead to KK and JJ. Provided we're not up against one of those, a Queen wins it for us. That give us two outs. Even discounting the clubs, I think we can squeeze another two outs out of it to make this call.

Also, river a Queen. It makes life easier.

Entity

08-03-2005 08:39 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, thats just not even right, what kinda ugly board is that? Didnt you listen to anyone here, they told you to hit a club, not pair the board [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] given the action I think you can fold.

p.s. I would have led the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious why you lead the flop. His hand range is JJ+, AK, and I'm ahead to none of those. I'm just curious why we lead here when we can be almost certain we're getting raised by UTG, and when a bet-raise surely won't fold the only hand with outs that I'm concerned about here (the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

Rob

Oilcan

08-03-2005 09:32 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

[ QUOTE ]
It's possible you're drawing live against a smaller flush from MP, but I think the possibility of drawing dead to UTG is even more prominent.

HE could have KK, JJ, or AA w/ a club pretty easily, and it's gonna be spendy if he does.

Also, if you make your hand you can't be too pumped about a lot of river action.

It sucks, but I'd fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep. It looks like its going to cost you 4 bb here on the turn, then even if the club drops on the river then how many more?.

When 2 passives get into a raising war in a situation like this I let go.

btw - this is great hand for discussion, good pick.

regards

tizim

08-03-2005 09:36 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

I don't get it either. The flop lead makes no sense to me. Explanation??

oreogod

08-03-2005 09:48 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

Suspense, you're keeping me in suspense!

I know its good for discussion, but sucks for curiosity.

Catt	08-03-2005 09:54 PM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

Interesting / frustrating / shitty damn hand. Flop is easy, just keep calling but hope it settles down. Turn card is fantabulous. Ginormous pot but I just don't think calling is good here. There certainly seems to be one flush out there, meaning there are only 7 flush outs for us (maybe less). Those 7 outs should be pretty heavily discounted given the possibility / likelihood that our flush is dead to A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] -- call it 4 (pretty aggressive, IMHO since "slightly passive" and especially "very passive" don't strike me as the type to go nuts without the nuts). Once at a midpoint of 4 outs, we need to discount again for the very real possibility that a flush doesn't win this hand. Knock the 4 outs down to about 3 (not too pessimistic, IMHO). J outs don't help us unless we're drawing against two made flushes (in which case our flush outs are reduced at least as much as the additional J outs availble to us). Q outs are pretty dubious but the best we've got going for us. There are two of them out there, but they should be discounted a bit given that JJ and KK are certainly within UTG's range and he's playing this hand like a bat out of hell for a passive guy. Call them 1 - 1.5 outs. So I think a reasonable number of outs on the turn is ~4. We need a bit more than 10:1 to make the turn call profitable. We're almost there but that assumes this turn action doesn't get three-bet or capped. If it gets capped, we're getting an effective 6:1 to see the river and if it gets 3-bet we're getting ~7:1. On top of all this, we really can't try and make up implied odds on the river since we really can't have a good idea of how good our hand is relative to opponents -- are we raising if we spike a Q? raising if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] comes? How do we feel putting in two or three bets even if we spike a Q?

Since this sure looks to me like it is going at least 3 bets on the turn (UTG looks to be a candidate for a FH and at "best" an AK with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), I think folding is best. If these guys were described as maniacs or LAGs then I can see playing this differently, but against a "slightly passive" and "very passive" that are showing this much excitement, meh, let it go and fight another day. That said, I would probably find it hard to do with a 30 second window to act and the ginormous pot staring at me, and can easily see myself calling along (but I wouldn't be proud or happy about it).

Lurker4

08-03-2005 11:28 PM

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

When you combine PF, flop, and turn action, the player descriptions, the fact that you are not closing the action, could be drawing dead, and bad reverse implied odds (if you hit your flush, it could take multiple bets that you don't want to be putting into the pot to get to showdown), I don't think 10-1 (at best) is enough to call the turn, I think this is an easy fold.

Entity

08-04-2005 12:50 AM

RESULTS

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises, MP (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG 3-bets, MP caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, Hero folds, UTG calls.

River: (20.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, MP bets, UTG calls.

-----

MP shows down T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Rob

Catt	08-04-2005 12:52 AM

Re: RESULTS

Notes. Revise your reads.

Entity

08-04-2005 12:55 AM

Re: RESULTS

[ QUOTE ]
Notes. Revise your reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which read? I said UTG was slightly passive, I stand by that. MP was definitely passive and continued to be through the rest of the session.

Rob

Lurker4

08-04-2005 01:07 AM

Re: RESULTS

I dunno, i think a player that's slightly passive doesn't bet that turn w/AK no club against a flop capper on that board.

Entity

08-04-2005 01:14 AM

Re: RESULTS

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, i think a player that's slightly passive doesn't bet that turn w/AK no club against a flop capper on that board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see a lot of otherwise passive players overplaying AK in general, especially with the number of people that will raise for a free card in a multiway pot.

Rob

Catt	08-04-2005 01:15 AM

Re: RESULTS

I didn't mean your reads were wildly off.

I'm probably working off a different definition of "very passive" for my own note-taking. I wouldn't intrepret "very passive" in my own notes as indicating a willingness to cap the flop with a flopped flush against pre-flop a 3-bettor and a capper with anything less than a nut flush, and even then some of my "very passive" guys wouldn't find any raises after getting three-bet on the flop. Even though he has a draw to the SF and the third nut flush on the flop, my note after a hand like this would read more along the lines of "Passive post-flop; but aggressive with a very strong hand even when facing lots of aggression." In other words, I think he played the hand pretty well, and if I had "very passive" in my notes I'd expect him to slow down to a flop three bet or at least not raise the turn when lead into after capping the flop. I'd definitely note the play of this hand in his notes.

I'm not sure I'd revise "slightly passive" at all given the play in this hand, though I might add something along the lines of "3-bet flop and lead turn into capper with TPTK on monotone paired broadway facing serious aggression" - my comment was really directed at the poster read more than UTG, but I think the play of this hand is really worthy of hand-specific notes on both these guys.

Surfbullet

08-04-2005 01:26 AM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

Crazy hand. I would amend my reads after it, but that may be because "very passive" and "slightyl passive" mean different things to me than to you.

The "very passive" note I have is on a player who flatcalled the river with the nuts. The "slightly passive" guy shut down when I 3bet him on the flop with bottom set.

My definition is different. Given my definition, I play it how you did. If I knew UTG was capable of 3betting AKs on that flop I might think more about calling down. Additionally, there are many more combinations of AK left vs 1 of JJ and 3 of KK, from a pure statistics standpoint.

Surf

Entity

08-04-2005 01:37 AM

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

[ QUOTE ]
Crazy hand. I would amend my reads after it, but that may be because "very passive" and "slightyl passive" mean different things to me than to you.

The "very passive" note I have is on a player who flatcalled the river with the nuts. The "slightly passive" guy shut down when I 3bet him on the flop with bottom set.

My definition is different. Given my definition, I play it how you did. If I knew UTG was capable of 3betting AKs on that flop I might think more about calling down. Additionally, there are many more combinations of AK left vs 1 of JJ and 3 of KK, from a pure statistics standpoint.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but if he's got AK, KK, or JJ, I'm drawing to 2 outs against 4 of his 12 AK's as well.

Seems that a lot of people take issue with my "very passive" read, but I'm ok with it -- it's basically meant to indcate that he has a flush at least here when he caps the flop/raises the turn.

Rob

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