Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

It has been my goal to have a FAQ stickied for this forum within the next few weeks, just in time for kickoff of football season. I know a few questions for sure will be things like how to read lines, what books to read, etc.

Please use this thread to post any other questions that you think belong in there. Feel free to post answers as well, to your questions or to the questions of others. I will collect all the questions and answers, clean it up, and then repost.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

Tech's Pooh-Bah post is a must.

Answers to the common questions:

What are the best sportsbooks?

Can I make money betting on sports?

What is the 3+1 Challenge?

What are the best Sports Betting books?

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

Encourage people to post some type of rationale with their picks.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

A few off the top of my head....

What is a good bankroll to start with?

What part of my bankroll should I bet for each game?

What is a good website to use for checking odds at multiple online books?

What is a 'square' line, what is a 'sharp' line?

What is scalping?

I won a 3-team parlay yesterday and made a bunch of money, is it +EV to just stick to betting parlays?

What is a/are some good books to read for sports betting?

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

How about a standard answer to general questions about professional handicappers?

They're very likely scam artists if they're not documented, and even if they are, it's still unlikely that it's worthwhile to pay for their picks. Spend your time and money studying and making your own picks.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

Theory, philosophy, methodology and "way of thinking" kind of stuff.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

I'll use this as an opportunity to ask a newbie question that I've wanted to ask for a while. I've looked through the posts in this forum and even the faq on major wager and not seen anything exactly on point, so here goes -

On pinnacle sports, the moneyline today for the braves v. reds today is -124 Braves and + 116 Reds.

I know that this means the Braves are favored and that you have to bet $1.16 on the Braves to win $1.00.

My question though is the basic question of what exactly do these odds mean? Suppose I do my handicapping and decide that I think the Braves will win X% of times. How do I do the math to decide if this means that this is a good bet?

Also, are there any other transaction fees involved in this type of bet, or do the books make all of their money off of the spread?

I hope I'm not being to presumptuous, but Mr. Baseball has talked a lot about how its not picking winners, it's about finding good buys. I was hoping for an example of exactly how you work out the math to evaluate whether this is a good bet.

The advanced part of my question, after that, is how do I then decide whether to play the money line or the run line - i.e. how do I compare the two to figure which is the better bet.

Attempted Answer of My own Question
 

-124 means that:

x(100)-[(1-x)(124)]= 0
100x-(124-124x)=0
224x=124
x=.55357

So, this means that this is a good buy if you think the Braves will win this game about 55% of the time?

Also - this is my big question - do I have to add any other transaction costs into my calculations (e.g. if I am using pinnacle) or can I stop there.

Using, the same math, the probability of the Reds winning is about 46%. Should this always be adding up to about 100% (I tried this once before on another game and thought that for that game it added up to about 90% - I assumed that extra 10% was how the book was making its money).

Thanks in advance for your comments.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
On pinnacle sports, the moneyline today for the braves v. reds today is -124 Braves and + 116 Reds.

I know that this means the Braves are favored and that you have to bet $1.16 on the Braves to win $1.00.

My question though is the basic question of what exactly do these odds mean? Suppose I do my handicapping and decide that I think the Braves will win X% of times. How do I do the math to decide if this means that this is a good bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually you have to bet 1.24 on Atl to win 1.00. If you bet the Reds 1.00 would return 1.16

Here's what the -124 on Atlanta means: you take the 1.24 (what you bet) divide it by 2.24 (what you get back if you win). So 1.24/2.24=55.35% meaning Atlanta needs to win 55% of the time to break even. If you think they win significantly more often than 55% you have a bet. On the Reds side they will need to win at least 46.29% to break even. Or 1/2.16=46.29%

So if can can determine how often a certain team should win in a certain situation you can then determine if the line is offering you any advantage assuming that your handicap is accurate.

Re: Attempted Answer of My own Question
 

You got it!

Re: Attempted Answer of My own Question
 

Ok - thanks for the help - it's always nice for a liberal arts guy like me to actually get a math question right!

Re: Attempted Answer of My own Question
 

How to cap a game.

Fundamental, Technical, Emotional Handicapping Techniques.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

Some items I looked for in a FAW and didn't find sufficient answers;

Definitions of a straddle with examples
Definition of middling with examples

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
It has been my goal to have a FAQ stickied for this forum within the next few weeks, just in time for kickoff of football season. I know a few questions for sure will be things like how to read lines, what books to read, etc.

Please use this thread to post any other questions that you think belong in there. Feel free to post answers as well, to your questions or to the questions of others. I will collect all the questions and answers, clean it up, and then repost.

[/ QUOTE ]

Q: Which sport is the "easiest" to beat? Which sport is the hardest to beat?

Q: What are Kelly Betting, full Kelly, and half Kelly? How do they apply to sports betting?

Q: What is the highest sustainable win rate in point spread betting?

Q: How do betting exchanges like Betfair and Tradesports work? Can Americans use Betfair?

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

I suggest people should post answers to these Q's and not just the Q's. I would but I'm looking forward to reading the FAQ.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Encourage people to post some type of rationale with their picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

or better yet, not post them [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

Welcome back!

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Welcome back!

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Welcome back!

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

But please don't come in here and start any topics with any logic or thoughtout ideas. It is enough with Tech knowing his s-it. Now, you might post something worth reading. I won't be able to take it.

craig

p.s. The Red Sox suck!!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Red Sox suck!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

sing it brother

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Encourage people to post some type of rationale with their picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

or better yet, not post them [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get sassy with me just because you're sore that Dead is gone.

Martingale, not the 1st, and yes there is a flaw
 

N/M

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

I can help you with the FAQ if you want. A few things though. As far as handicapping techniques, methodology, etc... I think we could leave that off. Main reason being that most of the "sharp" guys here really don't have any. And like I said the other day, it is sad, but maybe sometimes we can send them to SSB.com. And, I get the feeling that Sublime, Tech, Shakes, and myself are much better line shoppers than we are cappers. I know you have said that you make a lot of your money on scalps. It is a lot of work, but it isn't handicapping. And I don't think you should have to post your scalps. At least not for free.

I think listing Sportsbookreview.com is a good idea. They are fairly reliable. And I think we should have a seperate sticky post for them. Thay way we don't get the same question everyday "what is a good book". Because I know the books that double deal lines and I am not going to tell them to everybody. I am not trying to be a jerk, but this is a pretty cut throat business. I am willing to work with some people, not you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], but we don't have to give up everything. They don't at SSB.com and I don't think we should have to either. Once again, I am not being a jerk. But, doing research takes a lot of work, and I don't think we should have to give away all of our secrets (i.e. always bet really heavy on road favorites..:) ).

So, what am I saying at 6:30 in the morning?...lets list sportsbooks and the bonuses (maybe we can even find a way for all the main participants to split the referrals), lets discuss the value of line shopping, lets figure out what lines are better (for example is +3 +120 better than +3.5 -110..just an example), lets cut down on any spam, all picks must be placed here with no outside links (even the record must be kept here), if we find a scalp/middle we can post it, but don't have to until we actually bet it.

A few other things, when people post "I am taking GB -7, what do you guys think?" I think we would all be better off if we asked them why they were betting it. Then we create dialogue and will actually learn something.

No, "I told you so b.s." That is too results oriented. If a guy loses he feels bad enough. We don't need to make him feel worse.

I think one of us should be responsible for posting the opening lines for the week Sunday night. I think we can all learn a lot from that. I am willing to do this as well. We can use OLY (I think they usually come out with the first lines..if not them then def. Pinny).

Oh, and just like SSB, if you make an official play, you should have to post a widely available line, but feel free to tell where and what you actually bet (for example if GB is -7 -110 at most places, that is yoru play, but you can mention that -6.5 115 can be found at WWTS).

I think parlays should be discussed, but not for months on end. Just a short bit on the common correlated parlays.

So, those are just my thoughts. I just want this place to be a good learning experience where we can all make some money.

craig

p.s. Scalf is exempt from any rules/ideas mentioned above. The pure entertaintment value of his picks outweighs anything I could learn [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

This is my first time reading this forum, so my questions are as pretty basic. Also, I don't know all the vernacular yet, so bear with me.

1) How do I get started betting sports. Where can I find reliable bookers?

2) How do the sports books make their money if they take any bet that you make?
2a) Do bookers make their money giving bad odds to the overrated teams like the Yankees because they expect people to always bet on them?
2b) Are there betting fees involved?

3) How much variance is involved with sports betting

4) Where do you research for your bets?
4a) Is researching mlb.com all the resources you need to make a good bet on an mlb game?

5) How hard is line shopping?

6) How exactly do the odds work?
6a) If site 1, 2, and 3 gave the following odds, which one would you pick if you were 80% sure the marlins would win? Would you pick site 2 because you have to bet the least to get the same return?
6b) Site B would require you to bet $2.60 to win $1?

(Dodgers/Marlins)
Site 1: +229/-269
Site 2: +240/-260
Site 3: +230/-270
6c) I am looking at the Phillies vs: Giants game and both teams have -lines. One of them is -110/-110. Why are both numbers negative? The Phillies are playing much better than the Giants this year, why are the lines the same?

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

To answer your question about the lines with the Phillies and Marlins. That is only one game, each game has different pitchers, and other factors that help make the line. The numbers are both "negative" because the game is even money. So they are just charging the regular juice you would get from betting a pointspread in an NFL or NBA game.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

I have another question. I saw a good line today with the Mets -1.5 at +129. That means the Mets have to win by 1.5 runs for me to win the bet. What exactly is 1.5 runs? Does it always mean 2 runs?

If the Mets are the home team (they aren't, but pretend they are) do the mets only have to win by 1 run, and they'll be credited with .5 runs since they don't get to bat in the 9th?

Or is the -1.5 one of those tricks like how gas is priced at 149 and 9/10 to get more people to bet.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have another question. I saw a good line today with the Mets -1.5 at +129. That means the Mets have to win by 1.5 runs for me to win the bet. What exactly is 1.5 runs? Does it always mean 2 runs?

If the Mets are the home team (they aren't, but pretend they are) do the mets only have to win by 1 run, and they'll be credited with .5 runs since they don't get to bat in the 9th?

Or is the -1.5 one of those tricks like how gas is priced at 149 and 9/10 to get more people to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the Mets win by one run, they lose. If the Mets lose the game, they lose. If the Mets win by two runs or more, they WIN.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

I plan on betting on the Royals at +1.5 at +160. What happens if the Royals Lose 3-1 tonight? Is my bet a tie?

How about if I make a bet on Under 8 and the total runs equal exactly 8? Does everyone lose who bet over/under 8?

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I plan on betting on the Royals at +1.5 at +160. What happens if the Royals Lose 3-1 tonight? Is my bet a tie?

How about if I make a bet on Under 8 and the total runs equal exactly 8? Does everyone lose who bet over/under 8?

[/ QUOTE ]

You lose. You're only getting 1.5, not 2. 1 + 1.5 = 2.5. The other team scored 3. 3 is more than 2.5.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

Sorry this is taking so long. I have been really busy lately and just haven't had a chance to sit down and finish typing it up. It is high on my priority list, I promise.

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

I think the FAQ should discuss varying your wagers. Here are my thoughts (and I KNOW they are correct)..if you are a good enough capper to know your edge, then vary your bets. If you don't know your exact edge then always bet the same % (increasing or decreasing as bankroll goes up). Some plays are better than others, if you are good enough to know this, then why not bet more. It is like flat betting blackjack when the count is high. Why would you do that? The reason I am discussing this here is it seems to come up once a week. My guess is Sublime and Tech would agree with me (I still don't know why Tech tells me bet 15% on my normal plays and 30% on my real strong ones).

Re: Suggestions for Sports Betting Forum FAQ
 

I completely agree that what you said is mathematically correct, but I also believe that most bettors aren't good enough to quantify their edge.