Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

So like Beer, I am getting a memorable lesson on the variance of poker. What do you guys think of this hand? Would you have thrown in the towel on fourth?

7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 7: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (3.90 SB)

Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___calls

5th Street - (3.45 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (6.45 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

River - (9.45 BB)

Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets___raises___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___raises___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___folds

Total pot: (17.45 BB)

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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Would you have thrown in the towel on fourth?



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No way.. You played it fine I think.. I recommend staying away from the 10/20's for a little bit.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

looks like a good hand to me.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

I think you should raise on third. You have a 3-flush, three live overcards to your opponents door card, and there are no higher door cards to worry about behind you. I don't think there is any reason to play a multiway pot here. (Even if you think the limper will come along, it still may be better to raise.)

Given that you just called third, I think the the rest of the hand I play the same.

No reason to stay away from 10/20, just scout out the tables a little. Also, I think night may be better than day. However, I still mostly play 5/10, so this is based on small sample size.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

I fold fourth. Two dead hearts and a total brick -- do you really want to hit a pair on fifth?

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

I think folding 4th would be a crime here. But I also would have raised 3rd, so maybe it's a case of internal consistency biasing my thinking. I think even without the 3rd street reraise it's worth taking one off though.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

I play it 100% the same. Folding 3rd is too weak and raising after the completion is too agg since there are two dead [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I think you have enough potential with your hand to peel one more off for a SB on 4th and after that there really are no tough decisions to make.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

When I come in with a marginal hand in stud, I don't mind paying a 3rd st. completion because of the higher implied odds the extra bb round provides. However, when I brick 4th, now those same implied odds are working against me.

My hand will play very well when I catch good on fourth, if I make top pair I'm likely ahead and have three cards to improve. If I four flush, I've got a reasonably live draw to a likely winner. Now the others have three streets to pay me off.

But when I brick, now I'm the one chasing. I run the risk of catching just enough on fifth to chase down (as happened here), which is just too expensive versus the small size of the pot on fourth. These situations vary alot, and player types, live cards and pot sizes can change a fold to a play or vice versa. But in this hand, I think a fourth street fold is fairly easy.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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I run the risk of catching just enough on fifth to chase down (as happened here)

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Is there a big difference between making open queens on 4th or 5th in terms of the relative strength of your hand in this particular situation? Given the action I think it is reasonable to think that you are ahead on 6th street and possibly 5th.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

I think there is a huge difference. Remember, when you call 4th, you don't know if you will catch anything on 5th. Sometimes you'll brick again and fold. But when you catch a Q on 4th, not only are you likely winning now, you can improve further on 5th, to two pair or trips or queens with a four flush.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

Three to a royal flush - easy raise on third. By merely calling, you are screaming "I'm on a draw".

If you had done so, you would have had a much easier time representing trips when you paired your lady.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you unless you are against a monster and open you up to another bet from the original raiser. I think calling the completion is clearly the best choice on third with folding being a distant second.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you

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And that's a bad thing?

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you

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And that's a bad thing?

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With this hand I want to play a large multiway pot. Raising 3rd will likely make you play at large pot HU which is exactly what you do not want to do with a drawing hand.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you

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And that's a bad thing?

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With this hand I want to play a large multiway pot. Raising 3rd will likely make you play at large pot HU which is exactly what you do not want to do with a drawing hand.

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This hand plays well heads up or multiway. I think this case is a clear raise, and if for some reason it still ends up multiway, that's fine too. Also, if you only raise here with a big pair, your play is too predictable.

Another thing to observe is that you are approximately even money (heads up) against hand the 9 has except for a big pair in the hole or rolled up trips.

Finally, folding this hand (on third) would be horrible poker.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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Raising will also likely shut everyone out behind you

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And that's a bad thing?

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With this hand I want to play a large multiway pot. Raising 3rd will likely make you play at large pot HU which is exactly what you do not want to do with a drawing hand.

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Thinking that this hand is nothing more than a "drawing hand" is a really, really, really bad mistake.

This hand is strong multi-way AND/OR heads up. If you're not going to raise with a 3-to-royal flush against a 3 and a 9, then you ought not play at 10/20. JMHO.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

I am all for being agressive with these types of hands but I just don't think this is the right spot for it. I found this dicussion pretty interesting so I ran some numbers against possible holdings of the villan.


cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Qh Jh 190694 38.14 309281 61.86 25 0.01 0.381
Ks 9s Kc 309281 61.86 190694 38.14 25 0.01 0.619


Ah Qh Jh 239348 47.87 260621 52.12 31 0.01 0.479
Ks 9s 9c 260621 52.12 239348 47.87 31 0.01 0.521


Ah Qh Jh 279414 55.88 220378 44.08 208 0.04 0.559
Js 9s 4s 220378 44.08 279414 55.88 208 0.04 0.441

we are a little better than 60% favorite over a 2 spade straight draw.

I still think the best play here is to just call the completion.

Anyone else want to opine on this situation?

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

Beta - your numbers do a nice job of explaining why I decided to just call here. The two dead hearts diminished the value of the hand quite a bit in my opinion. If I had raised, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened when I hit the open queens.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

It's not just the percentages that matter (that much). Of course, his most likely hands are approximately 50-50 against our hand, some are worse, and very few have us in bad shape.

The fact that you take the lead changes the entire hand. You have significant fold equity against most players. He might throw his hand away on third, or on fifth, or you can take a free card if/when you want, etc.

Raise!

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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Anyone else want to opine on this situation?

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New word? Did you pick it up from AndyB earlier?

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

Raising is not awful. Calling is my usual play (depending on situation and if I feel I'm playing too predictably) because despite the strength of this hand, the two dead hearts mean I will likely fold if I brick fourth. I don't want to get tied on here. With all hearts live, I'd be more likely to raise since I'm going to call a single bet on fourth even if I brick.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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his most likely hands are approximately 50-50 against our hand, some are worse, and very few have us in bad shape

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There are very very few that are in worse shape than 50-50. Most of his hands will have us playing this hand as a small dog 45/55 or 40/60 (if heads up).

There isn't enough money in antes / BI to try to isolate this guy.

I'm not sure your right that you want to play a monster pot multiway with this hand. If you raise and subsequently 3-bet, and then the 9 calls or caps your hand is gonna suck. You'll have a deadish flush draw with likely dead highcards.

Also if you raise and you only play the 9 those percentage that you discount will become very important.

I think raising would be fine in a game with a bigger ante.
I think raising would be fine with 1 fewer dead [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

What happens if the 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that limped also has a 3 flush? Now pouring money in doesn't look so great.


I wouldn't mind a raise. But I wouldn't make it from this position.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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your play is too predictable

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Sad fact of the structure.


Not to mention making a raise here for "predictability" reasons is bad. You'll get dealt an Ace high 3-flush with 2 broadway side cards once every 920 hands. 920!!!

I don't care if you do something like this once every 900 hands. And neither will your opponents.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

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Anyone else want to opine on this situation?

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New word? Did you pick it up from AndyB earlier?

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Actually I got it from Bill O'Reilly (he may be pompus, but he has a good vocabulary)

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

Well, with a 3 flush you are more likely to make 2 pair, than a 3 flush. With three live high cards and 2 dead flush cards, it seems reasonable that you would want to raise and hope to catch a high card or something like that.

However, the small antes do make raising a less attractive option.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

I agree that 3rd street should be a reraise.

For 4th street, if the hands were random I'd say a clear call because the EVs are split and you are still the favorite to scoop. However, you red flag should be the reaise from the 9. What doesn that say? A pair of 9s at least? A three straight that is now a 4 straigt? A little opponent knowledge would be good here but a fold is definitely called for if you think they have a pair of at least 7s or a 4 straight as that would put you last in the pack.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

I am still stubborn/arrogent in thinking that there is no reason to raise 3rd here, can you please give me your reasoning for putting in the 3rd bet?

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are still the favorite to scoop

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I think this is just a confusing choice of words, but I should point out to you just in case this is stud hi, where every hand is a scoop [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

Sorry was totally in Stud8 world. Ignore my post.

Result
 

Seat 4 rivered a 6 for a full house - 6's and 3's. Seat 6 won the pot with a full house 10's and 2's. The hand history showed that he had pocket 10's to start. The history could have been shuffled, but his play does make sense if he had the tens to start.

Re: Result
 

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Seat 4 rivered a 6 for a full house - 6's and 3's

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rather, he rivered a 3 for 3s full?

Re: Result
 

Here is the order of his cards as shown by the hand history:

Kh 3h 6h 3c 3s 9d 6d

"threes full of sixes" as Party would say.

Re: Result
 

I see. I had assumed he had started with sixes.

Re: Hand from a tough session - advice?
 

How large of a mistake would it be to always mindlessly fold 4th street when you've bricked 4th? I intend to mean including otherwise ideal circumstances for your hand (like 3 to a straight flush with 0 dead cards, and multiple overcards to your opponent's board, who happens to be a manaic and could be betting air).

Hello,Istream! U played well---
 

UR oppo. rivered u.
U were the BOSS until U were replaced with a new boss.
SittingBull