Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

The Cast:

MP2 is a smart, but not really tricky, TAG. Button bounces back and forth between TAG and LAG, but plays well post flop. He's tricky, deceptive, and likes to slowplay big hands. The rest of the field is unimportant.

UTG and UTG+1 both limp. MP2 raises. MP3 cold cals. c/o calls. Button is involved in a conversation with a railbird. The dealer gets his attention, and he tries to call one bet. After being informed it was raised, he calls both cold. I call in the SB w/ 78 clubs. BB calls. 8 to the flop.

Flop:

8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check. All check to MP2 who bets. Folded to button who calls. I call. I figured this to be one of those "reverse implied odds spots" and wanted to see the turn card before I went crazy.

3 callers behind me. 6 to the turn

Turn

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check. Checked to the button who bets. I c/r. Folded to MP2 who takes forever and then calls (obvious at this point that he had a flush draw, not sure which one). button 3 bets...gulp. I call knowing I need to improve.

The river is the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Checked to the button who bets. I start thinking about what the button might have 3 bet the turn with, that matched with his preflop play. I came up with a set, two pair (probably 45), or maybe a suited King.

I look at this monstrous pot, knowing I have MP2 beat, and call hoping beyond all hope that he'll show me a counterfeited 45.

Thoughts?

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

Is this hand really that standard? Or am I just boring...

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

Given the way the button got in the hand and that can now beat all of 85, 84, and 54, not to mention the rare big draw desperation bluff, I think a crying call is reasonable.

Good luck.
Eric

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

i dont think your hand is a "reverse implied odds" type hand in this situation since you have a gutshot. i think leading into the raiser is the better play, but once it comes back to you i think checkraising is appropriate if there are players behind you. your hand is ahead here at least 40% of the time and if its not then youre sporting 9 outs.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

well you blew this hand by not check raising the flop. given where you are action, i think you have to fold the river.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think leading into the raiser is the better play

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Even though there are 3 players between you and the raiser, you can use the threat of a possible raise, plus your implied strength of leading into this big field to maybe convince them to fold overcards for one tiny bet. It could also maybe happen that raiser decides not to bet overcards and it gets checked around, not good.

[ QUOTE ]
your hand is ahead here at least 40% of the time and if its not then youre sporting 9 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

This might be really stupid, but...

Are you _sure_ MP2 has a flush draw? As the preflop raiser, I would expect him more often to have turned up here with some crappy made hand. Is it possible that he just can't get away from something like QQ - TT?

The added suckage of being possibly beat by the third man makes me want to raise or fold. And this hand is really quite bad, even in this big pot. So I guess I fold.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you _sure_ MP2 has a flush draw

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said in the OP, MP2 was a smart TAG. There's no way he's checking a made hand on the turn. Its impossible. If he has QQ, JJ, or TT he certainly doesn't call two cold on the turn. His hand was of no consequence on the river.

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

Bet or fold...calling is weak...Sounds like you are trying to rationalize a bad call in a big pot, that’s usually how big pots get built, by bad calls.

If you wanted to make a "play" at this pot, instead of being a lemming, you should have made that decision on the flop.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet or fold...calling is weak...Sounds like you are trying to rationalize a bad call in a big pot, that’s usually how big pots get built, by bad calls.

If you wanted to make a "play" at this pot, instead of being a lemming, you should have made that decision on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This has got to be one of the most worthless posts I've ever read.

Why on earth would I raise the river? Cleary i'm not getting a better hand to fold, and probably will not get called by a worse hand.

I understand that the flop could have played differently, but I wasn't certain a lead would get raised, and there were a lot "scary" turn cards.

I think now the play on the flop is to either lead, or check/raise or check/fold depending on where the bet comes from.

In the future, try being specific when you post, and actually give the "why" to what you write. This is strategy forum, based on discussion, but blanket statements of unproven opinion.

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think you have to fold the river

[/ QUOTE ]

ACK! GASP! COUGH! CHOKE!

fold dis river? No way.

ACK! GASP! COUGH! CHOKE!

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

21 Big Bets on the river if I count correctly. Easy call.

Lawrence

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

I was pretty sure that the river call couldn't be wrong by much, even it was wrong.

What do you think about the flop play, and/or the turn play?

I really don't like how the flop/turn went down and feel that I should have tried to face at least part of the field with 2 bets on the flop.

I managed to face the entire field with 2 bets on the turn, but was worried that it was too late.

Thanks for the input,

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
His hand was of no consequence on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. If you are certain of your read on the man after you, then I would toss in the chips to see the villain's hand.

If you win this pot 3% of the time, then this call is -.35 BB. If you win this pot 5% of the time, then your EV is +.10 BB.

I'm not good enough to distinguish between a 3% and a 5% win in a situation like this, so I just call to see his hand, and for my own peace of mind.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

Do you have the best hand you do or you don’t. Is it a correct call…sure, easy. Do you have the odds, I think everyone who reads and write the posts here know the math. You seem confident in your reads, okay. Look your asking what people think on your play. YOU WHERE NEVER THE AGRESSOR! You state, “that you know you need to improve” when the King hits. Then another King hits and the only way you could rationally call this pot is if the Villain has 4-5 or 8-(4 or 5)

Read the other posts they probably put things a little more gently than I did.

Why not bet the flop?

Or check-raise the flop?

Why not bet the Turn, representing a king (maybe middle pair folds) and you win if the flush draw doesn’t get there.

Why not check raise the Turn, forcing middle action to fold????

Who knows maybe they think you’re pretty good and that you have decent hand.

You can’t answer any of these scenarios because you did not force any of your players to consider you.

Honestly when did you think the button had two pair, when he raises the turn, or when he smooth called the flop, or maybe just maybe rationalizing the call on the river…Look you need to be right in this situation once every twenty times. The way you played that hand I doubt that would ever happen.

Okay your 20-1 on the river call, who cares if you’re beat...you're beat? You can beat three hands here, all of which had you beat until the river.

Be careful of becoming a Call Station. Sometimes poker can be very simple. Look it doesn’t matter to me if you keep calling in this situation. I wish everyone would do the same, my life would be easier. If you took offense to this ask yourself, why?

The biggest motto that I live by at the table is not to make mistakes. If I make 2 mistakes an hour at 40-80 it is going to cost me 40-160 dollars per hour. That can destroy my HR/rate.

1. Let me address something else, let’s say you lead into a better hand and lose a showdown. You will win more money later by others overcalling you.
2. Okay lets say you lead and everyone folds, you win the pot outright and you might have forced a better hand to fold, you win.
3. Lets say you fold the hand at some point, you save money.
4. If you just call, you need still look a little suspect. You called two big bets on the turn with a pair of 8’s and a gutshot.

If you think I’m wrong, fine play the same and best of luck. And you're right [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I should have been my analytical of your post I hope this meets you with better approval.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

usually I lead the flop in situations like this. Only thing that sucks is the pot is pretty big and since this is a live game, not sure if anybody is folding. Out of check raising or leading...I like leading as it will probably work out to your advantage more so than CRing.

I understand what you are trying to do, waiting for the turn and such...but Im not so sure about that move here. Buttons 3-bet after MP2 calls is pretty sick. Im going with suited K here...but there is enough doubt (and can u ever really be over 95 percent sure?) that u have to call the river.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

The main problem with this hand exist with your position and the fact you caught the flop with a pair and a gutshot to boot. So no matter how it's played out (especially with a pot of this size), you are pretty committed to pot showdown unless something really scary comes up on the runner runner.

Playing aggressively or passively on the flop won't make too much a difference imho but if you want to build the pot a little bigger believing you have the best hand at the moment, then I would probably check-raise the flop. Calling isn't too bad an option either to wait and see how the turn comes but you may sacrifice some EV here if you are ahead and miss out on some small bets that could be gained. If you have 8 players seeing the flop, then very likely at least half of them will continue on to the turn (with correct pot odds to chase most draws), so might as well check-raise imho and take advantage of the EV here.

I like the turn raise if you really think it can thin the field down. This is a great spot to do it and the King, while not the best card that fell, is definitely a lot better than a spade, 4 card straight or a smaller pair to the board or an Ace.

Then again I would have to think how dangerous it is to check and give a free card on so I would very likely have bet the turn instead of raise.

The rest of the hand as it played it is straightforward. You are calling the 3-bet on the turn hoping to really hit your gutshot and praying on the river that he had 2 pair that got counterfitted by King pairing up. Pretty standard from here on.

As you can see, my style is pretty aggressive in these big pots. I approach it with one thing in mind - winning the most I can from it. Folding here never crosses my mind simply because of the pot size and the fact that when you have 8 way btf, there are bound to be donkey hands that come up. If I lose, so be it, cost me what.. 2 big bets or so in mistakes in a 21 BB pot, whereas folding is a 21 big bet mistake.

Lawrence

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why not bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

A valid question. Mostly because I think checking for info is more usefull then betting for info.

[ QUOTE ]
Why not check raise the Turn, forcing middle action to fold????

[/ QUOTE ]

re-read the OP, thats exactly what I did.

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly when did you think the button had two pair, when he raises the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

When he 3bet the turn, after I c/r the turn, as noted above.


[ QUOTE ]
You can’t answer any of these scenarios because you did not force any of your players to consider you

[/ QUOTE ]

of course I did, you didn't read the post correctly.

[ QUOTE ]
Okay your 20-1 on the river call, who cares if you’re beat...you're beat? You can beat three hands here, all of which had you beat until the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So because I missed my gutshot/2pair draw I should fold on the river, even if some of the button's holdings got counterfeited? That doesn't make any sense. I'm easily good at least 5% of the time here.

[ QUOTE ]
Be careful of becoming a Call Station. Sometimes poker can be very simple. Look it doesn’t matter to me if you keep calling in this situation. I wish everyone would do the same, my life would be easier. If you took offense to this ask yourself, why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate your concern, but trust me i'm in no danger of going broke. No offense taken, and I appreciate your input, but next time try reading the OP correctly.

[ QUOTE ]
3. Lets say you fold the hand at some point, you save money

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if i'm folding the best hand...

[ QUOTE ]
4. If you just call, you need still look a little suspect. You called two big bets on the turn with a pair of 8’s and a gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another statement caused by you misreading the post. I c/r the turn (bet came from the button) and forced the entire field to fold. I think, given that I didn't make a move on the flop, the turn c/r was the way to go. After the button 3 bets i'm easily getting the odds to call for just my gutshot, not to mention my 2pair draw, which is likely good as well.

[ QUOTE ]
If you think I’m wrong,

[/ QUOTE ]
Not at all. I didn't like how this hand felt, thats why i posted it. But don't preach, just analyze. I'm pretty ok at this game.

Now, hopefully, you've understood the ACTUAL turn action. Does this change your thoughts?

lf

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

Hi Feller,
I like checking the flop to see who bets, who calls, and who raises.
It went down perfectly for a check-raise on the flop because the pfr bet, and now you have a chance to give 3 players an opportunity to fold.

With this flop, and pot size, I only like waiting for the turn if you can't apply pressure on the flop. For example, if BB bets and everyone calls, then check-raising is pointless.

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

That’s why I hate posts...
I missed c/r (check raise) I thought you just called three bets-I read it to fast...
Let me take me foot out of my mouth and my sister’s feet too.

Well hey than you played it great. That’s what I would have done. I thought you just called the all the way.

Heck you played it great.

As far as the preaching, I am what I am. Good luck to you, you probably don't need it though. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Bellagio 30/60 78s
 

[ QUOTE ]
That’s why I hate posts...
I missed c/r (check raise) I thought you just called three bets-I read it to fast...
Let me take me foot out of my mouth and my sister’s feet too.

Well hey than you played it great. That’s what I would have done. I thought you just called the all the way.

Heck you played it great.

As far as the preaching, I am what I am. Good luck to you, you probably don't need it though. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Darn, I was hoping to get flamed again [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. Seriously though, thanks for taking the time, and luck never hurt anybody...

lf