Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

I'm drunk and on vacation and have a few hours to shoot the [censored], so how about a post. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] It has been a while...

I think that this is one of the most interesting spots in all of poker. Very tough and you have to use all of your skills to make the right move. This hand took place at the Wynn Las Vegas about a month ago. I was really drunk at the time and still drinking so take it into account. The SB was pretty serious and I was the exact opposite (he was wearing FullTilt gear fwiw). The game is 4/8 and we are 9 handed.

Hero holds A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO.

Three of the usual suspect types (too loose, too passive) limp in and Hero raises. Button folds and a pretty decent SB calls. He is aggressive and wins lots of hands pre-showdown. BB calls and everyone else does. Six to the flop and 12 SB are in the pot.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check to Hero who bets. SB check/raises and everyone else folds. Hero makes it 3-bets and he just calls.

Turn (9 BB): K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He bets, Hero ???

What do we think here...call, raise or fold? Why?

Cheers,
Brad

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Call.
Call.

Same as raise/fold. We catch a bluff this way and we get to river a crub.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Clearly you should cap, hit your flush draw to bust his AK, and say "Just like the internet!"

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

I call because my hand isn't good right now, and we have zero folding equity with a raise. If he's a good player who knows that you're a good player, he's not trying to push you off a hand - he's clearly betting because he wants you to raise. He's not afraid of giving up a free card because he knows you'd bet the turn, so he just wants to 3-bet.

Looks to me like you're drawing dead to a flopped set and a turned boat, but I would call down because I rarely trust my reads *that* much.

How's that for weak-tight 3rd level thinking?

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Hmm... if you say he's decent, to me it looks like he C/R'd to protect his K, which i think is more likely than a set at this point. I think (and I'm just a newb) just calling the turn to hit your flush is correct, because a K or a boat are definitely three betting you here.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

3 observations...

1) There is a 0% chance that I'm calling the river UI. With the amount of strength that I've shown on a drawless flop, he has to have at least a pair here.

2) If he doesn't have a king, I feel like my fold equity is VERY high. My play looks a lot like a king, and if he doesn't have one he has to think that he is drawing dead here a big % of the time.

3) The 2nd king makes it less likely that I actually hold a king in this spot. So he could easily be betting a weakish hand here to prevent giving a free card in this big pot.

Brad

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

I suspect that you are better than most poker players drunk or not. Oh and did you see Ed Miller while you were there? and how much did you win playing poker? Sorry, got carried away. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Back to your hand.

Well you are obviously not going to fold with the nut flush draw, following your perhaps bold flop 3-bet. So are you going to raise the turn or just call for pot odds?

I suspect that SB called your preflop raise with a pocket pair, and that he check raised the flop, hoping that you had overcards and that he had the best hand. Also he may have considered you to be a weak player.

Somehow I suspect that you might be able to raise the turn for value, because if you caught an A you could end up counterfeiting a weaker 2 pair of his.

Thereagain if he really does have a decent hand like trip K's (or a full house), calling the turn to see if you make the nut flush makes sense.

So after all this deliberation, I am going to choose to call on the turn and hope to make the nut flush or pair the A.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Are you 3 betting the flop to get a free card?

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Am I allowed to say I hate your flop line?

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you 3 betting the flop to get a free card?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and no. He doesn't have to have a big hand to check/raise this flop, and I feel like I can probably get him to fold a better hand quite often here with a turn bet after I 3-pop the flop. All of this does of course depend what falls. If I pick up something like a gutshot on 4th I will probably take my free card to guard against a check/raise. Any turn blank is getting bet.

Brad

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hero holds A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO.

Six to the flop and 12 SB are in the pot.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check to Hero who bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh... drunken flop spewing.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Not really. BD flushdraw, BD straightdraw, if no one has a K - two overcards, and we want to thin the field in this large pot.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

If he's serious and aggressive, I would expect he would check-raise you on the turn with a king in his hand, after you 3-bet the flop. He probably has a hard time putting you on a hand if you're drunk and getting drunker; he may just think you're gambooling it up. But if he puts you on anything, he's got to think about you having a king.

I like a semi-bluff raise here. Who knows, he may fold a better hand than yours, like a PP, or even an 8. If he calls your raise, you probably have got yourself a free showdown, if you want it, and if a club hits, your nut flush is well disguised.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

You know - I was thinking you guys were HU the whole time, and I completely missed his "protection" C/R on the flop. He's of course not doing that with a set so nevermind.

If he has a middle PP he's in a really shitty spot. From his POV I don't really like check/folding, check/calling, or bet/folding since this kind of Party donkbet when the board pairs frequently gets raised by good players with marginal hands. KQ/KJ is a possible holding, but he might not even like those hands enough to 3-bet so you might very well raise here to knock out something like 99 or 77.

Edit: Granted my post was retarded, but did you really think I wanted you to call the river UI?

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero holds A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO.

Six to the flop and 12 SB are in the pot.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check to Hero who bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh... drunken flop spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against very aggressive opponents who fancy themselves decent handreaders, 3-betting flops like this can actually be ok. I don't do it often but when I do, there's certainly a reason for it.

Rob

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero holds A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO.

Six to the flop and 12 SB are in the pot.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check to Hero who bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh... drunken flop spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I'll give you that one. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

While the initial bet is iffy/bad, the 3-bet is a must IMO against the type of player that we are facing. He isn't going to calldown with something like 55 after I 3-bet the flop and bet the turn (and I can get a free card if I please).

Brad

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

I think it's pretty close. I think most players would obviously prefer checkraising their king here but for those who are just betting their 2 pair for information, I don't think you have enough fold equity to get them out of the hand. Therefore, I think we might already be way ahead of the kind of players who call here. (others with draws or dry aces) and in position to get 3 bet by those with another king, so I would rather just call here.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

This is a pretty interesting hand. I think AA, QQ, JJ, TT, maybe 99 are possible here in addition to the made AK(s), KQs, KJs. Set of 8s or 3s would almost always bet out for value. The high pockets would depend on if he would call preflop in hopes of check raising you on the flop in this big pot. If you think he would re-raise some or all the big pair hands, looks like you are usually beat on the turn and should call for your 8 outs against his trips. Otherwise a semi-bluff raise would be a tempting play that would fold out the pocket pairs frequently enough to show profit.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
1) There is a 0% chance that I'm calling the river UI. With the amount of strength that I've shown on a drawless flop, he has to have at least a pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not drinking enough. Call the turn and raise any river.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly you should cap, hit your flush draw to bust his AK, and say "Just like the internet!"

[/ QUOTE ]

AK would definitely 3-bet with that relative position PF.

My Thoughts
 

I did call here. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] This is a pretty easy raise IMO and I dropped the ball here.

The river was the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and it went check-check. He tabled 98 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and took the pot. As for Catt's reply...calling the turn and raising the river is an awesome idea as long as you know that he will bet again on the end with hands like 77 and 98s. The problem is that they will almost always check/call since hands like AQ and AJ aren't going to payoff given the action. If he did bet again, it would either be a stone bluff which AJ could beat or it would be a big hand like a full house or trips.

As an aside, I would just call on this turn card with a hand like AK. If he is betting middle pair, I don't want him to fold to a raise and I will get tons of action on the river from a worse king if that he what he has (so it isn't like I'm missing value in those spots). In a HU pot you can afford to take these lines with big hands since you don't have to worry as much about getting outdrawn. So my verdict is to just call here with a big hand (pop the river) and raise with a draw or a weak hand.

As another aside, if I raised and got 3-bet I would consider folding but then call. If I do end up making the flush, I would just call his river bet.

Brad

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

i think this is a really interesting spot. if he could hold (and fold) 98s here, i'd raise.

his flop play is not a pot building move by a set, but a protection move by a vulnerable hand. so we're likely looking at KQs/KJs type hands or 98s/T8s/87s type hands that could cold-call PF.

the turn bet sure looks like a free card prevention bet.. likely with the intent to bet-fold. a K won't fold, but will have a hard time 3-betting us. the pot is big, lets win it.

the only thing that gets me is the flop was rainbow uncoordinated.. the turn bet kinda surprises me.

Re: My Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
As another aside, if I raised and got 3-bet I would consider folding but then call. If I do end up making the flush, I would just call his river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i edited my above post about 5 times trying to account for this. would a set actually check-raise the flop? the turn bet is quite peculiar given the rainbow K high flop. you are representing top pair or better pretty much.. so a turn bet-3bet would be a powerhouse move here. my own conclusion was also to grudgingly call. if i caught the flush on the river, i'd only call his bet figuring him for 88/33 or possibly K8s more than 33% of the time.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think this is a really interesting spot. if he could hold (and fold) 98s here, i'd raise.

his flop play is not a pot building move by a set, but a protection move by a vulnerable hand. so we're likely looking at KQs/KJs type hands or 98s/T8s/87s type hands that could cold-call PF.

the turn bet sure looks like a free card prevention bet.. likely with the intent to bet-fold. a K won't fold, but will have a hard time 3-betting us. the pot is big, lets win it.

the only thing that gets me is the flop was rainbow uncoordinated.. the turn bet kinda surprises me.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly after I actually read the flop action. He has either a middle pair or a K. A middle pair might fold to a raise, he doesn't have AK given PF action, and KQ/KJ are not easy 3-bets for him to make.

Re: My Thoughts
 

Lost my internet connection there for a bit.

[ QUOTE ]
As for Catt's reply...calling the turn and raising the river is an awesome idea as long as you know that he will bet again on the end with hands like 77 and 98s. The problem is that they will almost always check/call since hands like AQ and AJ aren't going to payoff given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm surprised that someone playing seriously at 4/8 in Vegas and decked out in Full Tilt gear is checking this river. It's the perfect opportunity for him to make a "big laydown."

FWIW, I don't think a turn raise folds him (or many thinking players, for that matter). The flop 3bet followed by the turn raise might pull it off, but I'm skeptical (though this is hopeless, IMHO, without the flop 3-bet). It just feels too much like you're trying hard to fold him out with the aggression as opposed to trying to collect bets with a strong hand like trip Ks. I would think he probably calls the raise and checks the river, in which case you're now committing your 3rd bet on a bluff or checking the river with A-high. If I'm willing to put in 3 bets on a bluff, I'd rather do it by calling the turn and raising the river with smoke since I think our FE is much higher with this line. But Villain foiled the plan by wisely checking the river.

I still think you probably weren't drinking enough.

Edit: This approach may not work in a B&M game. I generally don't play live so this may be an internet thing. Eventually I'll convince my wife to let me out of the house and I might try to hook up with Brad to go play Lucky Chances since I'm just over the hills from him.

Re: My Thoughts
 

pussy

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Clearly folding is out of the question.
A guy this aggressive doesnt have a K when he leads. He'd CR instead. So we have 13 outs, giving us ~25% equity. I see no FE here, and so no reason to raise. I call.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Shillx pointed out that there would be boatloads of FE if villain doesn't have a K. Its feasible that villain doesn't have a K and something like a pocket pair instead.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Bullshit... AFter looking at this again, our fold equity is non existant, except in the case that we have a villain who is nearly drawing dead with a dry ace or similar draw, in which case we have more equity trying to induce a bet on the river.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

I see that. I posted blind (can't bring myself to saying the other word for that). But I don't agree that we have any FE against this opponent. Shill didnt describe him as weak-tight. I envision someone very much like a 2+2er.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bullshit... AFter looking at this again, our fold equity is non existant, except in the case that we have a villain who is nearly drawing dead with a dry ace or similar draw, in which case we have more equity trying to induce a bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree at all here. A pretty good aggressive opponent isn't going calldown here with 98s or 99 or whatever IMO. The villian would have to be a fool to play Ax this way and it is unrealistic to think that he holds this hand.

Anyway, the crux of this hand IMO is the pot size. With a smaller pot (say 5 BB) we would obviously want to call and see what we find on the river. In a huge 15 BB pot it would be more tempting to try and raise since any hand that folds (that beats us) is making a big mistake. You have to try and give your opponents a chance to make a mistake. I feel like this is a good time to do so in a pot that is 10 BB + our most likely hand is AK or KQ and the villian is drawing near dead if he doesn't have a king.

Brad

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero holds A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO.

Six to the flop and 12 SB are in the pot.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check to Hero who bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh... drunken flop spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against very aggressive opponents who fancy themselves decent handreaders, 3-betting flops like this can actually be ok. I don't do it often but when I do, there's certainly a reason for it.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, it's not the 3-bet that I find odd. I actually like that part of it, especially since the check-raise drove everyone else out. But I don't think I want to throw in that first bet to start the ball rolling in that direction (far too many variables -- it looks like he chanced upon an excellent spot).

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

If you raise, he's getting 12:1 on a call. I really really don't think he's going to fold any more than a bluff here.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

This is by far one of the best post/discussions the micro have seen in a while. It is forcing me to think in ways that go far beyond "playing your cards". It is going in my favorites, and I am pretty sure that this will be a digest entry. Good stuff guys.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise, he's getting 12:1 on a call. I really really don't think he's going to fold any more than a bluff here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What can a good Villain actually expect to win with if he's raised on this turn?

Side question for Shillx: Would you never raise this turn with AK (or KQ) or would you vary it? (This and the above question are related somewhat.)

And bump because this was a fun read.

Edited to add: I do agree that we have some good fold equity here against a thinking player, but I would not have thought to raise myself.

However, it seems a bit counterintuitive to me that you can fold him out here with a raise but you would never raise a big king on this turn.

I might just be tired. Later, I'll bump this up in the morning.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

What can a good Villain actually expect to win with if he's raised on this turn?


[/ QUOTE ]

It's not inconceivable that a good villian can think his 8's are good vs. an aggro opponent when he's raised on the turn. The free showdown play isn't that uncommon when the board pairs and the raiser has a marginal hand like a smallish PP or overcards. It may be possible he could've sniffed that out, but this situation is a little different when you're looking at Kings on the board, a PFR, and a flop 3-bet. It'd be a tough call to make but not a psychic one pending Shillx's image.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

However, it seems a bit counterintuitive to me that you can fold him out here with a raise but you would never raise a big king on this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he means if he had a big King he'd do something like this (BB's play, not mine):


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Kc As (two pair, kings and fours).
Hero has Kd Jd (two pair, kings and fours).
Outcome: BB wins 10.75 BB. </font>


If I'd have been 3-bet on the flop I MIGHT have folded to a turn bet. By not raising his TPTK villain kept an aggressive player in, and pulled much more money out of me, to my chagrin.

KO

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

definitely not folding. I am leaning towards raising here. Since SB is good and aggressive, he might not have a king and just trying to represent one by S&amp;G. Thus you'll take it down on the turn by your raise.


If 3-bet just call and fold river UI.

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

I don't like the flop bet either

Re: Hmmm Flush Draw hand
 

Call. SB represented having a pair of Kings or better on the flop. Therefore, might have made a set here.