Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

I have been playing for about an hour at this 10-handed 2/4 table. Villain has been mostly dead money and has folded after calling flop/turn bets, and he has raised all in once or twice before this hand, not getting called. I have a somewhat aggressive image, but not out of hand.

Action is folded to Hero ($400) who is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in mp1 and raises to $20. Villain (covers me) in mp2 calls, button (350) calls and bb calls (250).

Flop ($79) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets $65, villain immediately calls, others both fold.

Turn ($209) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets $180, villain raises me all in. Hero calls.

River ($839) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Results and analysis to come shortly.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

what exactly are you beating on the turn? looks like you are trying to convince yourself he has a busted flush.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

I can't wait for the analysis.

Is this Keller's brother under another account?

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

No, this isn't Keller's brother, sorry.

I guess there's not a LOT to this hand, but here's what I was thinking. Preflop raise was pretty standard, somewhat loose calls so usually 5xBB is what I had been shooting for with my raises. Villain to my immediate left had called several of my raises and we hadn't gotten to showdown due to 1 of us taking it down before that. I think villain's hand is not too strong, maybe a small pair, suited connectors, or a weaker A. My raises had been strong hands mostly with a little looseness, hence I got 3 calls.

Ok, so the flop comes and I bet about 3/4 of the pot, which is pretty standard for me whether I hit it or not. Its a draw heavy flop with medium cards and 2 to a flush out there. I want to just take it down right here of course since I have just an AK high. Villain calls as quick as I have seen anyone call ever. This leads me to believe his range of hands is a flush draw or str8 draw or maybe both. This is my gut feeling, and I was 95% sure of it at this point.

So I planned on betting about 3/4 pot on the turn assuming a non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8, 10. Turn brings what I believe is a brick, the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I make my 3/4 pot bet as such, villain doesn't waste too much time moving the rest of his stack into the pot (he has me covered). I have invested about 2/3 of my stack already and its a large pot with not a whole lot more to call. Plus I had him on a draw and I don't think he hit it. I think for a few moments and I type in 'I have you on a draw here' and call for the rest of my chips. I truly think my A high is good at this point. And whether or not it is, I get to show my hand to the table and they may think I'm a moron. But the point is I made a read and stuck with it. I can live the results because I played it right in my mind.

Comments/questions/suggestions are all welcome.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

Have you ever adjusted your read to new information?

This is a nice play for image purposes, even better if u win with Ace high, but maybe he misclicked and called by accident with a set/2pr instead of raising, or he was gonna push a non diamond/8/10 to make sure you dont hit a draw. Its a lot harder to tell with online, if it was live i think itd be much easier to make that specific of a read and it would make a much bigger impact for your image as well.

Hope it worked out id like to hear the results.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

Thanks for paying my bills [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

You're my hero if the villain actually turned out to have flopped a straight or something and you are drawing dead.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

You're right, in a live game, this read is perhaps safer. However, I made it and I was confident it was right. My reads usually are right, and I have to trust them, sometimes on just an A high. Anyway, villain shows 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and he caught the straight on the river after all the money went in. He had a flush draw, as I had assumed, and caught a redraw on the turn. I had the best hand, he just caught and won.

The fact that people are calling me out supports why I did this. I knew what I was doing on this one instance, and my image is going to benefit against players who think I am an idiot. I don't make a habit of this kind of strange call, it was a specific play and situation. The play may not look right to you, but it was read dependant. And if you were at the table where I made this play, you might be losing your stack to me later on when I hit a monster.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're right, in a live game, this read is perhaps safer. However, I made it and I was confident it was right. My reads usually are right, and I have to trust them, sometimes on just an A high. Anyway, villain shows 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and he caught the straight on the river after all the money went in. He had a flush draw, as I had assumed, and caught a redraw on the turn. I had the best hand, he just caught and won.

The fact that people are calling me out supports why I did this. I knew what I was doing on this one instance, and my image is going to benefit against players who think I am an idiot. I don't make a habit of this kind of strange call, it was a specific play and situation. The play may not look right to you, but it was read dependant. And if you were at the table where I made this play, you might be losing your stack to me later on when I hit a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

they just don't understand what a great poker player you are. we can only sit here and bask in your glory, wallowing in our own awe and wonder.

fim

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're right, in a live game, this read is perhaps safer. However, I made it and I was confident it was right. My reads usually are right, and I have to trust them, sometimes on just an A high. Anyway, villain shows 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and he caught the straight on the river after all the money went in. He had a flush draw, as I had assumed, and caught a redraw on the turn. I had the best hand, he just caught and won.

The fact that people are calling me out supports why I did this. I knew what I was doing on this one instance, and my image is going to benefit against players who think I am an idiot. I don't make a habit of this kind of strange call, it was a specific play and situation. The play may not look right to you, but it was read dependant. And if you were at the table where I made this play, you might be losing your stack to me later on when I hit a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

they just don't understand what a great poker player you are. we can only sit here and bask in your glory, wallowing in our own awe and wonder.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]
that's just brutal fim. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're right, in a live game, this read is perhaps safer. However, I made it and I was confident it was right. My reads usually are right, and I have to trust them, sometimes on just an A high. Anyway, villain shows 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and he caught the straight on the river after all the money went in. He had a flush draw, as I had assumed, and caught a redraw on the turn. I had the best hand, he just caught and won.

The fact that people are calling me out supports why I did this. I knew what I was doing on this one instance, and my image is going to benefit against players who think I am an idiot. I don't make a habit of this kind of strange call, it was a specific play and situation. The play may not look right to you, but it was read dependant. And if you were at the table where I made this play, you might be losing your stack to me later on when I hit a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

they just don't understand what a great poker player you are. we can only sit here and bask in your glory, wallowing in our own awe and wonder.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]
that's just brutal fim. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i just wish more great gutsy poker players like him and his ilk would post more often here. i'm so sick of correcting stupid fish like lapoker and his kind that hearing from a true brillaint great who really gets the game is refresing.

fim

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

[ QUOTE ]


i just wish more great gutsy poker players like him and his ilk would post more often here. i'm so sick of correcting stupid fish like lapoker and his kind that hearing from a true brillaint great who really gets the game is refresing.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

check out the thread where the guy was able to push off 2 pair with kings and not deep stacks when he made sure he gave off the read of top set while the guy was trying to get a read. THAT's poker.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

Ok Fan, let try some math on this one.

If you are right and he has a gutshot/flush draw, he has 18 outs on the river, which he hits 41% of the time.

If he has a made hand, lets generously give you 3 outs, so you win 6% of the time.

If you are 80% sure he is making a move then .8 x .41= .32
The other 20% is .2 x .06 is .1.

That leaves you with a 33% win when you are 80% sure. I dont feel like doing any more calculations, but you should be able to see where this is going....

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

LMFAO

Best hand played by an opponent against me lately:

5/10 NL

I raise to $30 in EP with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Folds around to SB who calls. BB raises to $80.
I call, SB calls.

Flop is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets $150, I make it $400, BB goes all in for $950, I call.

Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] . River blank.

His A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] takes it down.

He said he knew I had AQ/AQh

Brilliant poker by a master w/ a mindbogglingly accurate read.

Ni han sir.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

[ QUOTE ]
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i just wish more great gutsy poker players like him and his ilk would post more often here. i'm so sick of correcting stupid fish like lapoker and his kind that hearing from a true brillaint great who really gets the game is refresing.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

check out the thread where the guy was able to push off 2 pair with kings and not deep stacks when he made sure he gave off the read of top set while the guy was trying to get a read. THAT's poker.

[/ QUOTE ]


I wish i could tell which is sarcasm.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing for about an hour at this 10-handed 2/4 table. Villain has been mostly dead money and has folded after calling flop/turn bets, and he has raised all in once or twice before this hand, not getting called. I have a somewhat aggressive image, but not out of hand.

Action is folded to Hero ($400) who is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in mp1 and raises to $20. Villain (covers me) in mp2 calls, button (350) calls and bb calls (250).

Flop ($79) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets $65, villain immediately calls, others both fold.

Turn ($209) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets $180, villain raises me all in. Hero calls.

River ($839) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Results and analysis to come shortly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Results: I got lucky to be right
Analysis: I don't like money, so I figured I'd gamble
Seriously, if your only read on this guy is that he's folded a couple times, bet a couple times, and might be dead, then that is so vague I don't understand how you differentiate him from any other weak player.
Given that, I don't see how you can decide to go to the felt here w/AK and not every other time you have AK unimproved.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're right, in a live game, this read is perhaps safer. However, I made it and I was confident it was right. My reads usually are right, and I have to trust them, sometimes on just an A high. Anyway, villain shows 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and he caught the straight on the river after all the money went in. He had a flush draw, as I had assumed, and caught a redraw on the turn. I had the best hand, he just caught and won.

The fact that people are calling me out supports why I did this. I knew what I was doing on this one instance, and my image is going to benefit against players who think I am an idiot. I don't make a habit of this kind of strange call, it was a specific play and situation. The play may not look right to you, but it was read dependant. And if you were at the table where I made this play, you might be losing your stack to me later on when I hit a monster.

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Please give me your screen name, so I can go play you and make a note "call quickly with set-he'll put you on draw and go to the felt w/AK unimproved"
Seriously, you can lose a lot of money making so much of reaction times. he's thinking so long-he must be bluffing. or he could be taking a piss. he quick clicked-he must be on a draw. or his pressure-sensitive mouse on his laptop accidentally called when he meant to raise. or he needs to take a piss, so he'll just get this top pair crap kicker hand with quickly instead of thinking abou tit too much, etc.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

Surprised noone else caught this...

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I think for a few moments and I type in 'I have you on a draw here' and call for the rest of my chips.

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* Its good when players are putting people on hands, draws, bluffs.

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my image is going to benefit against players who think I am an idiot.

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* Its good when players are making calls based on metagame/image.


Pick one. You make this call with AK and want to show off how good you are to the rest of the room by correctly putting your opponent on a semibluff and calling down with ace-high. You are contradicting yourself as you are giving players the idea that you are a very thinking player that isn't just a zombie 4-tabling or 8-tabling. Don't give your opponents any information that you don't intend on capitalizing on in the future.

Anyways... Not the type of call I make as I like to 4-table the 2/4 rooms and plays like this are undoubtedly -EV in the longrun. Nice call, tough luck.

Re: Gotta trust your reads and instincts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok Fan, let try some math on this one.

If you are right and he has a gutshot/flush draw, he has 18 outs on the river, which he hits 41% of the time.

If he has a made hand, lets generously give you 3 outs, so you win 6% of the time.

If you are 80% sure he is making a move then .8 x .41= .32
The other 20% is .2 x .06 is .1.

That leaves you with a 33% win when you are 80% sure. I dont feel like doing any more calculations, but you should be able to see where this is going....

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All this math is pretty useless since you're not incorporating pot-odds.