Future of online poker
 

Online poker is very profitable, I have been moving up through the limits and am now @ $1/2 and am finding there are still lots of fish and CS's that were present at lower limits.

The sharks @ these levels tend to be better however. I was wondering in 2-3 years, will all the games start to fill up with sharks so much so, that profit levels for all, but the absolute best players(even their profits will dwindle) drop so much so, that it becomes almost pointless to play.

Poker has hit a boom and it seems everyone is playing now, with a lot of players playing online. I am sure that fish will not continue to play stakes for longer than a year if they see theyre constantly losing $ without doing something(reading books, move down in limits, or just quit) to become a better player in the hopes they will no longer continually donate to the sharks out there.

There will always be fish, but will there be enough of them in 2,3,5 or even 10 years down the road in order to consistently turn profits as a good or very good, but not spectacular poker player.
Your thoughts and comments on this subject would be very much appreciated.

Re: Future of online poker
 

Here's an anecdote that, I think, applies.

I've only played at the Trump in Gary twice. I recognized three players on the second trip. Each was a terrible player. Granted, I was playing 3/6, but these people stood out as worse than average even at that level.

Gambling is entertainment. It's safe to assume that people will always be willing to pay cash to be entertained.

Re: Future of online poker
 

If poker ever lowers in popularity to "only as popular as blackjack", I'll be fine. That game seems to be doing pretty well. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I concede that, at some point, the travel channel will stop showing casinos and go back to showing beaches. Maybe poker will stop booming, but it'll always be bigger than it was 5 years ago.
-Sam

Re: Future of online poker
 

Just remember... older people are not as technology trusting than younger people. As more people out there who are trusting of online gaming enter the legal gambling age, online poker will grow.

It seems every 16 year old out there loves poker.

Re: Future of online poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just remember... older people are not as technology trusting than younger people. As more people out there who are trusting of online gaming enter the legal gambling age, online poker will grow.

It seems every 16 year old out there loves poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can certainly attest to that. Many times I had to gently stop the games breaking out in my room as the 15-16 year old boys took out the their cards, "But we're done with your work!" was their cry. One student who knew me well said, "We KNOW you play...what if you played with us? We won't play with money, then it'd be okay, right?"

Um...yeah...when they're 18 (I suspect many are doing this anyway) they will find their way on-line. I think on-line poker will be stable for awhile.

BTW, they don't read books...they made fun of anyone who did saying, "Dude, just play...don't buy that book from that old guy - I don't know even know who he is!" (Yes, they were talking about Doyle...)

PB

Re: Future of online poker
 

This is the 50th thread on the same subject.

Re: Future of online poker
 

I didnt know I was being do repetitive, I am new to twoplustwo(about 1 month and I dont read all threads), I am sorry for being repetitive

Re: Future of online poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was wondering in 2-3 years, will all the games start to fill up with sharks so much so, that profit levels for all, but the absolute best players(even their profits will dwindle) drop so much so, that it becomes almost pointless to play.

[/ QUOTE ]
For every new, shark born, there are, a hundred, new, fishies. Also, don't underestimate the, power, of selective memory. People, remember the $1,000 payday, but forget the 500 $75 losses, that, lead up to, it.

Re: Future of online poker
 

It will not die but it will dry out. I think for easy games you need people that like the game poker and play for fun and entertainment. Here in germany i know now 24 that play poker online and NOONE play it for fun. And europe is the place where the growing is, denmark, sweden, germany......dam good backgammon players.........and so far any backgammonplayer that i know and move to poker make profit.

Re: Future of online poker
 

perhaps you recognize that the number of players are stable and not large growing. If 1 shark create 1000 fishes we must have 300 K on party

Re: Future of online poker
 

The games are getting worse and will continue to do so.

Re: Future of online poker
 

Prediction; Online poker will dwindle to the point at which only a modest winrate is sustainable for the bettre players out there.
Atm, there are many of us making way too much money for the amount of work we do. Fish are busting, sharks are not. Eventually the fish to shark ratio will not be so favarable for the sharks. THis will turn break even players into losers, good players into break even, and the best into moderate winners. The new losers wil quit, many good players will quit as they are now break even or sustaining a winrate that is no longer +EV in comparison to getting a job. As this happens, the shak/fish ratio will reach an equilibrium of modest profits for the better players.

Re: Future of online poker
 

The continuing growth of casinos offering brutal -ev games seems to suggest that it isn't much of a deterrent to be a loser. I think the growth may slow, but it'll be a long time before there's any decline.

Re: Future of online poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am sure that fish will not continue to play stakes for longer than a year if they see theyre constantly losing $ without doing something(reading books, move down in limits, or just quit) to become a better player in the hopes they will no longer continually donate to the sharks out there.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's really cute how naive a long of new poker players are about the rationality of people. Statements like the above just blow my mind because I can't imagine having that sort of faith in the intelligence and discipline of random strangers. You would probably find it educational to go to a casino sometime and try to meet some real gamblers rather than guess how they should behave if they are perfectly intelligent and rational. In any poker game, you will probably find someone who has been playing for twenty years or more and is clearly a losing player.

Re: Future of online poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, they don't read books...they made fun of anyone who did saying, "Dude, just play...don't buy that book from that old guy - I don't know even know who he is!" (Yes, they were talking about Doyle...)

[/ QUOTE ]

funny

Re: Future of online poker
 

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This is the 50th thread on the same subject.

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So don't read it. It is receiving plenty of responses so shhh.

Re: Future of online poker
 

To find out why the fish will keep on playing I suggest you read the Psychology of Poker. I read that and it gave me new perspective on why a fish is a fish, why a maniac is a maniac, etc. I always thought, because of the way I think, that any player out there would see they lose and get some books and learn. That is most definitely NOT the case.

Re: Future of online poker
 

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The games are getting worse and will continue to do so.


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This is right on the money. All you have to do is look at the past 3 years to see where the next 3 years will be.

Two years ago, most of the games were filled with fish. Now, it's not uncommon to see 6 or 7 pros sitting with 1 or 2 fish. Game selection didn't matter 3 years ago, now it's very important.

I don't think games will get worse at the same rate they have over the last 3 years; but when the number of fish stays at the same point and the number of multitabling pros increases, obviously the games are going to get worse......just as they have over the past 3 years.

Re: Future of online poker
 

It will grow for another 15 years or so. My oppinion.

Re: Future of online poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
For every new, shark born, there are, a hundred, new, fishies.

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Actually, it's more like 9 fish (players in the red) for each shark (players in the black).

The problem, as has been pointed out, is that the shark almost always stays, while, most of the time, all the fish eventually leave. Sometimes they can't afford to keep losing money, the rest of the time they just decide to play other games.

Poker is just entertainment for most, and as entertainment it will strike someone's fancy for a while and then, one day, it'll grow stale. If there's no profit to keep him around, a bad player will eventually get tired of it and move to horse racing (or sports betting, or Monopoly).

Meanwhile, the number of sharks only increases, so each new batch of players (9 fish, 1 shark) faces a tougher landscape than the one before it, which means the fish lose interest even quicker, which in turn makes the landscape still worse.

The current level of profitability is not sustainable. As has been said, at some point there will be an equilibrium. I don't know where that equilibrium will be, but I suspect that the current internet pros with more modest winrates will be forced to get actual jobs.