A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Like others, I've wondered why Daniel would issue his challenge. The widely-held consensus (S&M, Mike Sexton and others) is that Daniel takes the worst of it in these heads-up games, because he's allowing challengers to choose their best games. But even if you think Daniel's tournament heads-up experience gives him an edge, it's impossible to believe these are the most +EV games he can find.

So, why does he do it?

Thus far, explanations have included:

1. It's all a publicity stunt for the Wynn.
This has been pretty well debunked. The Wynn is not backing Daniel and that's that.

2. It's out-of-control ego.
Surely, there's some ego involved, but there must be more. If it's only ego, why not just play in the big game and try to bust Doyle, Chip, Jen, Phil, et. al?

All this leads to my very simple explanation. Why the challenge? Because it's the only game he can play.

Presumably, Daniel's contract as "ambassador" for the Wynn prohibits him from playing cash games at other area casinos (and possible out-of-area, as well). The Wynn people thought that Daniel would draw the big games from the Bellagio to the Wynn, but that simply hasn't happened. (Obviously, I'm not privy to their contract terms, but both Daniel and the Wynn have hinted that they have an "exclusive" relationship.) As a result of his exclusive deal with the Wynn, there are simply no high-stakes cash games in which Daniel can play!

So, what's a high-stakes poker action junkie to do? Daniel's answer seems as good as any I can imagine.

I would bet that had the Vegas high-stakes action shifted to the Wynn, Daniel would never have issued his open challenge. Instead, he'd be a regular in the Wynn 1K-2K or 2K-4K games. Unfortunately for him, these games just don't exist.

---

In response to the inevitable questions, do I really know anything? No, I'm just speculating.

In respone to the inevitable follow-ups, why do I care? I don't really. But I love pokah, pokah is nice and I spend way too much time thinking about things like this.

Discuss if you're interested.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

I suppose it's plausible. I don't know enough about the challenge matches to say if I think it's likely or not, but it's more interesting a hypothesis than most I've seen.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.

perhaps daniel thinks it is EV+ to put some of it in play so his contract gets renewed next year.

this is daniel's way of marketing the room, and it has attracted a ton of attention.

sure, he could have banked his cash. i give him credit for sinking it back into the business. his business with wynn is himself. promoting the business is promoting himself. that costs money. however, in this set-up he actually has a shot at growing the money.

i think it is a brilliant promo.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

The main reason is ego imo. He wants to try to claim to be a great player or the greatest player and thinks he can prove it this way. The only smart thing about his challenge is its headup. Where his weakneses of playing too many hands is nullified. Put him in a full ring game and his weakness would be more costly.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Are you seriously contending that Daniel doesn't know how to play in full games? If you know something I don't, please share it.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

That is interesting. Your saying win paid him 3 million for a year? Where did u hear that. just curious, sounds like ALOT!

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Yeah thats pretty much what i'm saying. He may or may not know proper pro strategy. Meaning what hands to play from where preflop. He rarely discusses techincal play. But even if he knows it i doubt he has the discipline to employ it. And doubt his ego would let him play tight either. As he is the type that thinks he will outplay the tighties with any 2(ala gus hansen). This is all speculation on my part. Just my guess.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Let put it this way. If Dannyboy got in a full limit holdem ring game against the likes of lenny martin, david sklansky, abdul, mason malmuth, Roy Cooke, howard,lederer,jennifer harman he would eventually go home runnin to momma after he went broke.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea if you have any real information or are just guessing, but as someone with experience in this field, I would be stunned if the amount was anything close to $3 million.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Ummm, why did you include Mason, Abdul, or Roy Cooke?

They're all very skilled players, but I've never heard anyone put them in the same lineup as Jen, and then at the same time claim that they are better than Daniel.

Don't you realize that Daniel has been playing since he was in high school and that he started from nothing playing full ring LHE games?

Again, if you know something that I don't, please share.

And why do you say that he doesn't have the discipline to play in full ring games? Discipline is not a "skill" in poker. Discipline is something that new players think gives them an automatic edge after they are done reading Lee Jones.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

I'm saying all of the people i mentioned are better at limit holdem than daniel. You ask for all these proofs. Where is your proof he is good or great you seem to think? Because he has played since high school? Thats your argument. C'mon? He had made fortunes playing tournmaent poker and gone broke yime after time. How does this equate to excellent live poker player? The other people i have mentioned have increased there bankroll year in and year out. Just the opposite of losing fortunes. How does he lose all this income he has made from tournies in the past? Just because the people i mentioned don't play as high as daniel now doesn't equate to better player. Btw, there are many guys in the mid to high stakes that i think are much better than danile at limit holdem. Again just speculation. But i bet i'm right.

You don't think discipline is a major part of playing limit holdem professionally? I'm not attacking you. Just annoys me when everybody assumes he is a better live player than people like i mentioned just because he's rich through tournaments. Show the players on that list the respect they deserve, they have earned it! Daniel blowing huge bankrolls that he won from tournies doesn't deserve my respect of his live play.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you seriously contending that Daniel doesn't know how to play in full games? If you know something I don't, please share it.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, it appears he was contending that none of the games spread at the wynn are of high enough stakes to be "worth danny's time." the fact that that is what he writes in the op and then in response to your post he writes that infact he was saying that danny is just bad at full ring games is pretty ridiculous and a clear mark that this poster is a troll, however.

additionally, the original poster uses the "presumably" danny's contract says he can only play at the wynn. this has been "presumed" many times, and every time, someone has to come along and point out that the details of dan's contract have not and likely will not, be disclosed.

so for now that person can be me.

citanul

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

He wasn't talking to OP, he was talking to Smoothcall.

Can citanul get away with insullts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this poster is a troll

[/ QUOTE ]

Citanul calls Smoothcall a troll. Smoothcall cannot reply because he will be banned by the moderator. This is exactly what happened before when Smoothcall was banned. Things here won't change until the moderator gets it right and realizes that Smoothcall is not the one that starts the insults. He should warn and ban those that are at fault not the innocent.

vince

Re: Can citanul get away with insullts?
 

i'm sorry vince, but i was saying that the original poster in this thread was a troll.

citanul

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Jeez, you disappear to play one MTT on Party and return to find that you've been flamed by the moderator. With all due respect, you owe me an apology.

You wrote: [ QUOTE ]
it appears he was contending that none of the games spread at the wynn are of high enough stakes to be "worth danny's time." the fact that that is what he writes in the op and then in response to your post he writes that infact he was saying that danny is just bad at full ring games is pretty ridiculous

[/ QUOTE ]

In fact, I said nothing about DN's ring game skills. I can only imagine that you were referring to Smoothcall's post and mistakenly attributed it to me.

Then, you wrote about my post that it was:
[ QUOTE ]
a clear mark that this poster is a troll

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I think you've mixed up my post with someone else's. But really, namecalling? From the moderator?

Then you wrote:
[ QUOTE ]

additionally, the original poster uses the "presumably" danny's contract says he can only play at the wynn. this has been "presumed" many times, and every time, someone has to come along and point out that the details of dan's contract have not and likely will not, be disclosed.


[/ QUOTE ]

Let's look at what I actually wrote, and higlight where I stated--as clearly as could possibly be stated--that I haven't seen the contract, so my post should be considered speculation only:

[ QUOTE ]

Presumably, Daniel's contract as "ambassador" for the Wynn prohibits him from playing cash games at other area casinos (and possible out-of-area, as well). ...deletia... Obviously, I'm not privy to their contract terms, but both Daniel and the Wynn have hinted that they have an "exclusive" relationship..... deletia In response to the inevitable questions, do I really know anything? No, I'm just speculating.


[/ QUOTE ]

Could I have been much clearer?

But now you've forced me to do research. In his column in Cardplayer, Mike O'Malley (then a manager at the Wynn) wrote:
[ QUOTE ]

Wynn Las Vegas has taken a bold step in signing one of the most popular poker players in the world to serve as its poker ambassador. Daniel Negreanu will play exclusively at Wynn Las Vegas when he is in town.


[/ QUOTE ]

And in a subsequent interview, Deborah Giardina, Wynn Poker Director said in response to the question, Is there any truth to the rumor that Wynn has hired Daniel Negreanu as a poker host?
[ QUOTE ]

Absolutely, Daniel will be our Poker Ambassador. When Daniel plays live action in Las Vegas it will be exclusively in the Wynn Las Vegas Poker Room.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that more than qualifies as "hinting" at an exclusive relationship, don't you?

Apart from the substance of your post (on which you were dead wrong), its tone was insulting, attacking, and clearly inappropriate. I would expect as much from a "Troll," but isn't it your job to keep debate civil around here?

Re: Can citanul get away with insullts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm sorry vince, but i was saying that the original poster in this thread was a troll.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

the original post in this thread is FAR From trolling.
get it right.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Here's a quote from Roy Cooke's latest article in cardplayer:

"In a recent session at Wynn Las Vegas, the $40-$80 hold’em game was good, with several players obviously having limited poker experience. With fewer than 50 hours of live play this year, I felt more out of touch at a poker table than I had in a good couple of decades, and I played very poorly. I left several bets out on the table that a player with my knowledge should have stuck in his stack. I missed reads to make plays that a player with my experience should have made. I left the game slightly stuck and felt that I deserved it. I had failed to adjust to the situation. I didn’t adjust to my own lack of feel arising from my live-play rustiness."

Do you still think that Cooke is in the same class as Daniel or Jen? I doubt that cooke has ever played 2/4k

I think he usually plays below 50/100

I find it strange that you have arbitrarily placed Mason and Cooke in this line-up. It really seems to me from this and your other posts that you will go to any length to insult Daniel, and that you aren't concerned with being truthful.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

While I will apologize for misusing my pronouns, since I responded talking about both your post and Smoothcall's post in one, I will not do so for calling you a troll. And, beyond that, I will not believe that calling someone a troll on an internet message board constitutes "name calling." It is merely a way of describing a particular type of poster, sometimes accurately and sometimes inaccurately.

A troll is not just someone who does flaming and or totally non-substantiative posts, but also can be someone who posts repetitious garbage.

If you believe that your post stating that you believe it is possible that the reason danny plays these matches is due to some exclusivity clause in his contract with the wynn, you are hugely mistaken. similarly, if you believe you are even merely the 20th person to independently come up with this amazing insight, you are mistaken.

Further, if you want to have your posts where you say things and question things like you did in the original post taken more seriously, you should probably include the evidence which you included in this most recent post in the original post. Much like if you were to write a paper for a class, you wouldn't just write it with no evidence, and upon receiving a D for lack of supporting evidence then tell the teacher that you had lots, and pull a pile of evidence out of your pocket.

As for the tone of my post and it's content, it really was in no way attacking, uncivil, or inappropriate unless you decide to read it that way. it was not meant that way. It was meant as exactly what you hint at, an attempt to keep the discourse civil, but also not just having the same 5 posts over and over again.

In finale, anyone who thinks that "troll" is an inappropriate thing to call another person on a message board is quite mistaken, in my opinion. If the moderator wants to tell me otherwise, he is of course free to warn me off that and delete my posts or edit them or whatnot.

citanul

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

So just to summarize, your earlier post labeled me a troll because I provided two conflicting reasons for Daniel's challenges:
[ QUOTE ]

It appears he was contending that none of the games spread at the wynn are of high enough stakes to be "worth danny's time." the fact that that is what he writes in the op and then in response to your post he writes that infact he was saying that danny is just bad at full ring games is pretty ridiculous and a clear mark that this poster is a troll."

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, you acknowledge that there was no conflict (because another poster provided the second explanation and you mistakenly attributed his remarks to me). Yet you still think I'm a troll because my post was "repetitious garbage" (either that or it was "flaming" or "totally non-substantive.") Both your original and subsequent post labelling me a troll didn't mention repetition at all, but that's no matter.

Nonetheless, you indicate that I shouldn't fret so much because being called a "troll" really isn't an insult at all--it's just a "description." That seems a bit of a stretch to me, but I'll accept your explanation, being less conversant in Internet-speak than most posters.

--Tipperdog

Incidentally, thanks for the advice on providing supporting evidence when writing a paper for class. It's been a long time since I received my BA and MA, but if I ever decide to go back for the PhD, I'll certainly keep your advice in mind. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

What's hilarious is that Smoothcall is back to his Negreanu bashing. However, the minute Daniel posted on this site, Smoothcall was backpedalling and kissing a$$ like there was no tomorrow. Funny stuff.

When I was at the WSOP I heard a conversation that DN was getting $3.5 million a year from the Wynn with the caveat that he make an appearance at the Wynn (or play poker at the Wynn) 235 days a year.

Anyway, interesting thread from the original poster.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he was paid $3 million for this exclusive.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea if you have any real information or are just guessing, but as someone with experience in this field, I would be stunned if the amount was anything close to $3 million.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any number can sound reasonable to the right person. Any reasonable person could sit down and figure out that this number is completely insane.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

My theory is, I think, fairly straightforward:

He is getting some decent amount of money from his deal with the Wynn, whether it's $3m or not is debatable, but whatever... anyway, he's also made quite a killing playing in the WSOP last year, the WPT this year, etc. etc. So the bottom line is he has quite a bit of cash, probably even more than we would guess if he's invested some of it well. Presumably the amount of money he is putting at risk may be a significant portion of his net worth, but would not leave him broke if he lost it.

So, basically, he can afford to do this.

Now, if he does it, due to the high variance nature of the situation, it's easy for him to come out ahead, even if he's not the best player in the majority of the games, if this doesn't happen, he can still just choose to stop at any point and take whatever loss he as accrued. Now, whether he wins or loses, he's getting a chance to play with some of the best poker players in the world at their best games. Even if he goes into each one as an underdog, there's no denying that he's a very smart and skilled player. So now you have a very smart and skilled player who's getting a chance to play the best at their best games... imagine what he can learn from this... now imagine you are already someone that can play at Daniel's level and you get this sort of experience -- what is that worth to you over the next 20 years of your career? (Or, the next 40 if he lasts as long as Brunson?)

It seems pretty obvious to me that it's quite a +EV situation he has created for himself here, all around.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
So now you have a very smart and skilled player who's getting a chance to play the best at their best games... imagine what he can learn from this...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm doing my best to imagine and all I can imagine is "damn, there must have been a way to learn whatever it is I'm learning for less than half a million bucks a pop."

I like your enthusiasm though. It sounds like nothing daniel does could ever be -EV.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
It seems pretty obvious to me that it's quite a +EV situation he has created for himself here, all around.


[/ QUOTE ]

if daniel lost the 3rd and 4th matches vs barry, would you still say this? probably not. variance plays too big of a role in people's perception of ability.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
That is interesting. Your saying win paid him 3 million for a year? Where did u hear that. just curious, sounds like ALOT!

[/ QUOTE ]
If you think about the 10's of millions of dollars that go into advertising budgets it's actually not that much.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So now you have a very smart and skilled player who's getting a chance to play the best at their best games... imagine what he can learn from this...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm doing my best to imagine and all I can imagine is "damn, there must have been a way to learn whatever it is I'm learning for less than half a million bucks a pop."

I like your enthusiasm though. It sounds like nothing daniel does could ever be -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he named his son Fold or maybe Smoothcall (pun intended), that might graze the hair of -EV

-John
(Got em both!)

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Just because Cooke can be honest about how he played in his mind does not mean Daniel plays better. Just because Daniel thinks he's great doesn't make it so.

I am not going to any length to insult daniel. I am trying to make a point that just because he tells you he's great doesn't means its so. He didn't get rich playing live poker. He got broke more than once playing live poker but never got rich. He got rich through tournaments.

Why do you discredit Mason and Cooke so easily? Show me Daniel is better? Why am i the bad guy saying there better. But yet your the good guy by saying daniel is better. Just because Mason and Cooke don't constantly feel the need to tell us how great they are like daniel does doesn't make daniel great and them not. And i don't know whose better. And neither do you. But at least i'm backing mine up with argument and not just saying daniel is better because Mason or Cooke haven't played 2-4k or because they can admit when they make a mistake. Again Daniel has a history of going broke playing live. These men don't!

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

No backpeddling. I was trying to be nice to him so i wasn't accused of chasing him away where you guys would blame me and cry. I wanted to give him a chance to explain. But instead he made one reply and then ran.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Going broke has very little to do with it. Most of the top players have been broke at some time or another. Sometimes more than once. Are you suggesting that somehow because I have never gone broke that I am a better player than Doyle Brunson who has gone broke more than a few times?

If Cooke and Mason were so good, they would play bigger games. Thats all there is to it.

Daniel's history of going broke was alcohol related. That doesn't reflect bad play. He actually wrote about this if you want to verify. Sorry that I don't have a link handy.

Here's what Barry has to say about Daniel's cash game skills:

"Daniel has become a consistent winner at the $1000-$2000 level in a limited side-game schedule."

Here is how he rates him on different areas of his game:

Aggressiveness: 7
Looseness: 7
Short-handed: 8
Limit: 8
No-limit: 8
Tournaments: 9
Side games: 7
Steam control: 7
Against weak players: 8
Against strong players: 7

Sorry, I couldn't find Mason or Roy on the list. Maybe that is because they aren't world class players?

I am not attempting to discredit them. I think that they are both very talented writers, and I have no reason to doubt that they are very successful in the games that they play.
[ QUOTE ]
Why am i the bad guy saying there better. But yet your the good guy by saying daniel is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that you're the bad guy. I just think that you often go out of your way to attack Daniel. Sorry if I offended you.

Is Citanul Serious? Troll not = insult.
 

[ QUOTE ]
will not believe that calling someone a troll on an internet message board constitutes "name calling."

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious? This is a convenient way to explain away any guilt one may have in beginning a flame war. whether you explain yourself or not I can assure you that any self respecting person that posts on the internet that and is called a TROLL will feel insulted. Is this also how our moderator feels? Someone told me that you Citanul are a forum moderator. Please tell me it isn't true.

Not an insult! Please get real.

Vince

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can imagine is "damn, there must have been a way to learn whatever it is I'm learning for less than half a million bucks a pop."


[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting comment from a guy that everyone on this fourm claims plays to win tournaments and is not concerned moving up the ladder when in the money.

Vince

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
if this doesn't happen, he can still just choose to stop at any point and take whatever loss he as accrued.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easier said than done...

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

It's very simple why he does it. DN is a genius - a poker genius. That doesnt preclude him from being an idiot in many other spheres. But he's of the "tortured genius" variety and seems to suffer from mood swings and mild depression - even when winning.

The challenge matches are a way to stoke up his motivation and revitalise himself. Arguing who's better at this or that game is missing the point. DN will raise his game significantly because of the circumstances and be a favourite over most people.

I'm reminded of Bobby Fischer, the former world chess champion. Although he was regarded as a great player his tournament record was not remarkable. However in the series of candidate matches that eventually got him to the world championship he completely destroyed a succession of world class players. Of course there's no luck in chess and DN can still be beaten no matter how well he plays, but I am confident that he will end up way ahead in his challenge matches.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

Could you restrict your comments to ones that contribute to the subject being discussed and aren't backhanded attempts at provoking others to attack you?

Re: Is Citanul Serious? Troll not = insult.
 

Are we all 2 years old on this forum and can't brush off someone calling us a troll? Instead you post a response, designed and worded to do nothing more than stir the pot and distract people from any actual substantive discussion of poker. Instead we are now talking about the insulting nature of the word troll.

And for those of us who want to tell you to grow up and stop being a 2 year old, doing so just gives you the attention you wanted in the beginning when you made the incendiary post. Unfortunate little situation there.

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let put it this way. If Dannyboy got in a full limit holdem ring game against the likes of lenny martin, david sklansky, abdul, mason malmuth, Roy Cooke, howard,lederer,jennifer harman he would eventually go home runnin to momma after he went broke.

[/ QUOTE ]

Roy Cooke? The 30-60 player at the Bellagio? I think that Negreanu built his bankroll up to where he can play significantly higher than that, I dont see them playing in the same game, and I think one of them would probably be playing scared money.

Re: Is Citanul Serious? Troll not = insult.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are we all 2 years old on this forum and can't brush off someone calling us a troll?

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is an emphatic NO! And the reason is that your forum Moderator does selective Banning based on who he likes or dislikes. I didn't start anything. I asked a question concerning the posting policy of the forum moderator. The childish behavior is his and those other here that sling the first arrow and then take offense when someone retaliates. And yes you who directed your comments towards me yet found the behavior of the moderator and those that like to sling insults not worth a comment.

Vince

Re: A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches
 

[ QUOTE ]
Could you restrict your comments to ones that contribute to the subject being discussed and aren't backhanded attempts at provoking others to attack you?

[/ QUOTE ]

The above is advice the person that gave it should truly consider following themselves. Now little boy my comments were meant to stimulate debate on tournament EV. Something you don't appear to be interested in or know anything about. So please read the quote above again and follow the advice.

Vince