Tossing AK
 

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: 4.50 BB

Re: Tossing AK
 

I'd call this. I'd expect a 9 to be trickier than this, so I'd say it's more likely a 5 or middling PP. Likely enough that we can peel to our TPTK/flush outs.

Re: Tossing AK
 

I'd raise this and hopefully take a free card on the turn, unimproved of course.

Re: Tossing AK
 

I would raise here on the flop unless I felt very confident that BB would only bet out with a 9. Otherwise, even if he has a 5 or a pocket pair, we have two overcards and a backdoor flush draw to improve. Raising is probably better than calling since it may give us a free card on the turn if we want it. Also there is a small chance that AK is still best here.

Re: Tossing AK
 

Here is where a read really make a difference, IMHO.

There are some players whose bet into a PF raiser means a powerful hand and others where it virtually guarantees they DON'T have trips here.

Re: Tossing AK
 

I'm thinking that its better to raise

bet the turn, and check behind on the river as the default

I think calling is better than folding as well

Re: Tossing AK
 

I call here as villain has a five(assuming he is your normal Party 1/2er), or doesn't know he has violated the USA PATRIOT ACT's fish proviso that requires them to check raise the turn with trips.

If I know he's prone to bluff flops like that or know he's not too passive as to pass up betting a flush draw I'll raise as the number of times I'm ahead combined with my chance to improve makes it worthwhile. But only that way, since raising to drive people out is silly since if our outs are lives they are to a near cinch, so we might as well let people draw along with us.

Re: Tossing AK
 

What is hero trying to improve to here though? Even if he hits his A or K he has to fear the 9 being out there. Villain could easily have called the PFR with A9-T9 or pocket 5's. Hero can call this bet and easily fold UI, but what if he hits on the turn? I might be seeing the monsters on this one, but improving to second best hand is going to cost you a lot of money here. I hate laying down Big Slick as much as the next guy, but when you whiff on the flop you shouldn't be holding on to just over cards with a board pair. Leave it alone and keep you bets.

Re: Tossing AK
 

If you want to go on with this hand raising is the best option. You will increase your chances a lot by going HU. You might make BB fold (not very likely) or win UI as well. You can get a free turn or a free showdown b/c of your position.

I think raising &gt;&gt; folding &gt; calling.

Re: Tossing AK
 

reads would be very helpful here, but in general I'd say 90% he doesn't have the 9. you possibly have the best hand here. you've got two overs and a bdfd. I probably raise.

Re: Tossing AK
 

How are we increasing out chances a lot by going heads up? We are only increasing our chances here if we think AK is the best hand. If it is not right now, our chances of improvement really don't decrease with a lot of people in here as the board is drawless. If we spike our ace, we have the best habd. We beat all two pairs unless someone has AT-AQ and hits a runner runner two pair, or aces and Kings don't complete a draw. If we hit our hand, we are much more likely to be paid off than to pay someone off here assumg our outs are live.

Re: Tossing AK
 

Hard to say without a read. I would call the flop and raise turn many times against some players and fold right away agaist some.

Re: Tossing AK
 

Can you say "flush draw"?

Re: Tossing AK
 

If he is the kind of player who would bet A5, a flush draw, a 9 and a bluff here (I would bet all those) I would call the flop and raise the turn (check/folding river) if the heart doesn't get there. If turn is a heart I call and fold for one bet on the river unless I hit.

What will raising the non heart turn accomplish? He will often fold a 5, a low pocket and call with a flush draw. If 3-bet it's an ubereasy fold.
This way, against many players you will make them fold a better hand, you charge the flush draw maximum to draw and you won't get bluffed from the pot unless he has guts to 3-bet a bluff.

Comments?

Re: Tossing AK
 

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Hard to say without a read. I would call the flop and raise turn many times against some players and fold right away agaist some.

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IMO calling the flop and raising the turn with the nut no pair is just silly.

Re: Tossing AK
 

minus a read, i raise this flop to put the fear of an overpair in the back of his head (assuming, of course, that he's capable of realizing that) and because, honestly, i think you're looking at either a random 5, a flush draw, or 66-QQ (minus, of course, 99). anything else would mildly surprise me, but it wouldn't be the first time, i guess.

i then probably check the turn UI, putting myself in that odd situation where i invite the bluff from a busted flush draw.

Re: Tossing AK
 

Most people here are saying to call or raise but no one has shown how this can have a +EV!

Re: Tossing AK
 

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Most people here are saying to call or raise but no one has shown how this can have a +EV!

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how would you like it shown? this is an odd way to play trip 9s. maybe a 5, midpocket pair, or a flush draw. all that you have outs against plus if the flush comes on the turn you have a redraw to the nuts. does that help?

Re: Tossing AK
 

Assume it is equally likely that your opponent has either a 5 or a 9. He can also have a pocket pair that he likes, say 66-88, TT. Also, he could possibly even have an Ace with a lower kicker. We just don't know. Against all of those hands except the nines, we have 7.5 outs to (unless they have A5 or) or we're ahead. So, there are 2 cards that are out there that leave us drawing mostly dead, and a plethora of hands that we actually have a good shot at. There are 9 bets in the pot, how can we not at least call this? Betting outright does not make it likely that he has a 9! In fact, it's actually *less* likely as a 9 would want to check-raise to get the most out of his hand. Folding here is a clear error unless you have reads otherwise.

Re: Tossing AK
 

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How are we increasing out chances a lot by going heads up?

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3- handed 33.33% avg equity
HU - 50%

Thus a 33% increase.

Re: Tossing AK
 

Folding this is bad. More often than not, every single out in your hand is live, and even with standard discounting you're getting plenty to call this.

Raising vs. calling is close. On one hand, raising might give us some strategic advantages, but on the other hand our raise almost certainly isn't for value. Also, we don't gain much equity from folding out SB unless he has precisely a small pair and BB is precisely on a flush draw. (Maybe there are other scenarios where SB will fold something for two bets that he would have called with for one bet, but I can't think of any).

I probably raise just because I don't want my opponents to consitently see me flat calling with overcards, but calling this is fine too. Folding is a mistake.

Re: Tossing AK
 

Call because you're usually just up against a 5 or a flush draw which you have redraws against (Honestly, I have seen more people fastplay trips lately, but maybe that's just 2/4).
I don't see what raising does for us because SB doesn't really pose any kind of threat to us given the cards we're drawing to. Clarkmeister was right. The free card play is ridiculously overused.

Edit: Maybe somebody will bump this thread if I link it:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;sb=5&amp;o=

Re: Tossing AK
 

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How are we increasing out chances a lot by going heads up? We are only increasing our chances here if we think AK is the best hand. If it is not right now, our chances of improvement really don't decrease with a lot of people in here as the board is drawless. If we spike our ace, we have the best habd. We beat all two pairs unless someone has AT-AQ and hits a runner runner two pair, or aces and Kings don't complete a draw. If we hit our hand, we are much more likely to be paid off than to pay someone off here assumg our outs are live.

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Thank you

Re: Tossing AK
 

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[ QUOTE ]
How are we increasing out chances a lot by going heads up?

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3- handed 33.33% avg equity
HU - 50%

Thus a 33% increase.

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Huh? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Tossing AK
 

Nobody is with me on calling flop, raising turn against some players?

Re: Tossing AK
 

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[ QUOTE ]
How are we increasing out chances a lot by going heads up?

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3- handed 33.33% avg equity
HU - 50%

Thus a 33% increase.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement makes no sense and shows quite a disturbing understanding of pot equity.

Re: Tossing AK
 

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I'd call this. I'd expect a 9 to be trickier than this, so I'd say it's more likely a 5 or middling PP. Likely enough that we can peel to our TPTK/flush outs.

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Re: Tossing AK
 

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Nobody is with me on calling flop, raising turn against some players?

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Not really. Define "some players".

If you assume that he's a fish who will never play trips this way, then I think it's also safe to assume that he's the type of player who isn't going to fold a 5 or PP in this spot.

Re: Tossing AK
 

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minus a read, i raise this flop to put the fear of an overpair in the back of his head (assuming, of course, that he's capable of realizing that) and because, honestly, i think you're looking at either a random 5, a flush draw, or 66-QQ (minus, of course, 99). anything else would mildly surprise me, but it wouldn't be the first time, i guess.

i then probably check the turn UI, putting myself in that odd situation where i invite the bluff from a busted flush draw.

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Yes, but I may bet the turn if the original better checks it (because there is a reasonable chance he may fold and you win the pot UI).

Re: Tossing AK
 

Thanks for posting your thoughts.

Regarding a read: I had no specific read on this player as I had just sat down at the table. However, Gametime+ showed a 13% VPIP and 9% PFR% over 113 hands on this player.

How I would have changed my play: This is a good flop for a small pair. I believe I should have raised on the flop with the intent of taking a free card on the turn, or folding to a reraise.

Re: Tossing AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: 4.50 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotta peel one off here with 2 overs and a BD flush draw.

Re: Tossing AK
 

Folding looks best. Edit: Nah, don't fold. The two best overs and a BDF. Calling looks OK. Raising might be better. I realized after reading the thread that BB could be betting a flush draw also... hmmm...possible.

If you wanted to continue, I'd raise rather than call and try for a free card on the turn. If BB reraises the Flop or bets out on a Non-Ace, King or Heart Turn, I'd lay it down, it looks like trips. If a Heart comes, your going to take a look at the River, of course.

Re: Tossing AK
 

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Not really. Define "some players".

If you assume that he's a fish who will never play trips this way, then I think it's also safe to assume that he's the type of player who isn't going to fold a 5 or PP in this spot.

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I don't assume he's a fish. I assume he is equally likely to have a 9, a 5, a low pocket pair, a complete bluff or a flush draw and that he will sometimes fold a 5 or a lower pocket if I raise turn. If he has a flush draw he will call my raise.
If you had a low pocket and bluffed, would you call down a turn raise against a tag? Would you 3 bet with anything but a 9 or a set?

Re: Tossing AK
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Not really. Define "some players".

If you assume that he's a fish who will never play trips this way, then I think it's also safe to assume that he's the type of player who isn't going to fold a 5 or PP in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't assume he's a fish. I assume he is equally likely to have a 9, a 5, a low pocket pair, a complete bluff or a flush draw and that he will sometimes fold a 5 or a lower pocket if I raise turn. If he has a flush draw he will call my raise.
If you had a low pocket and bluffed, would you call down a turn raise against a tag? Would you 3 bet with anything but a 9 or a set?

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I don't know if those were supposed to be rhetorical questions or not and I'm not sure how relevant this is to the hand, but...
If I'm villian in this hand and hero (who I read to be a solid TAG) raises me on the turn I am certainly not folding any pair. I don't believe he has a 9 and since he raised 1 limper PF I'm not convinced he has an overpair either. It reeks of a semi-bluff/free showdown play.
Of course, I'm probably insta-mucking against a typical passive Party fish and giving him credit for a slowplayed 9.

Of the range of hands you mentioned, a flush draw and a complete bluff are the ONLY hands it makes since to raise here (this is a rare situation where you want to raise a bluff since he still has 6 outs when he holds 2 rags). I think more often he has a 9, 5, or PP. And you have to have a really good read on him to think he's going to fold a 5 or PP - because it won't work against a fish or a TAG.

Re: Tossing AK
 

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How are we increasing out chances a lot by going heads up?

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3- handed 33.33% avg equity
HU - 50%

Thus a 33% increase.

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This statement makes no sense and shows quite a disturbing understanding of pot equity.

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The only thing I find diturbing is someone pretending not to understand that
100/ 3 players = 33.33%
100/ 2 players = 50%

Going from 33.33% to 50% you get an increase of 33.333333%

Now if you don't like the name average equity replace it with something else.

What is wrong with you guys? Why all this agression?
If it's only testosterone then play poker less and get laid more!

Re: Tossing AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I find diturbing is someone pretending not to understand that
100/ 3 players = 33.33%
100/ 2 players = 50%

Going from 33.33% to 50% you get an increase of 33.333333%

Now if you don't like the name average equity replace it with something else.

What is wrong with you guys? Why all this agression?
If it's only testosterone then play poker less and get laid more!

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think I need more of both.
A little defensive?

Your math is correct if everybody held the same 2 cards, but when Player A likely has us beat and we have Player B beat, we're not improving our equity all that much by knocking out Player B; but rather we're putting more $ in with the worse hand. Clearly, a raise does not clean up any of our outs in this hand, nor does it protect us from anything. The only reason to raise is that it "might" get us a free card which we may or may not take presuming we don't get 3-bet...yippee.

Re: Tossing AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How are we increasing out chances a lot by going heads up?

[/ QUOTE ]

3- handed 33.33% avg equity
HU - 50%

Thus a 33% increase.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement makes no sense and shows quite a disturbing understanding of pot equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing I find diturbing is someone pretending not to understand that
100/ 3 players = 33.33%
100/ 2 players = 50%

Going from 33.33% to 50% you get an increase of 33.333333%

Now if you don't like the name average equity replace it with something else.

What is wrong with you guys? Why all this agression?
If it's only testosterone then play poker less and get laid more!

[/ QUOTE ]

The 33% and 50% numbers just say how much equity you at least need in order to make a bet/raise for equity's sake. Just because a hand goes from 3-handed to 2-handed doesn't mean you've increased your equity magically.

Re: Tossing AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I find diturbing is someone pretending not to understand that
100/ 3 players = 33.33%
100/ 2 players = 50%

Going from 33.33% to 50% you get an increase of 33.333333%

Now if you don't like the name average equity replace it with something else.

What is wrong with you guys? Why all this agression?
If it's only testosterone then play poker less and get laid more!

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think I need more of both.
A little defensive?

Your math is correct if everybody held the same 2 cards, but when Player A likely has us beat and we have Player B beat, we're not improving our equity all that much by knocking out Player B; but rather we're putting more $ in with the worse hand. Clearly, a raise does not clean up any of our outs in this hand, nor does it protect us from anything. It "might" get us a free card which we may or may not take if we don't get 3-bet...yippee.

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I used very simplistic maths just to show how you can increase your chances to win.
TOP has a nice chapter on this: "Raising to drive out worse hands when your own maybe second best"

The interesting thing here is that we are not sure that we are behind. Player A might be betting a draw or he might be bluffing maybe with A-high that we beat. If we raise a lot of nice things can happen: B might fold a smaller pocket pair. He might be on a flush draw and we'll charge him double for this. He might be in a gutshot as well. If we let him call with a gutshot we can lose to a pair of sixes or something. Not very nice. A few times we can just win the pot if A is on a flat bluff and B folds. Additionally if it goes HU we'll have an excellent position and a lot of times we can have the choice to get a free card on the turn or the river.
And one more small piece is that we can get info. If we go to the turn with 2 opponents calling then we can be sure that we are most likely beat and save 1-2 bets. Not very reliable info and certainly not worth the raise by its own but it is a small bonus.

And I hope I was not too harsh but I don't get the agressive replies when everyone here is trying to have a good discussion, express their opinion and become better players.

Re: Tossing AK
 

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Just because a hand goes from 3-handed to 2-handed doesn't mean you've increased your equity magically.

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Not magically. You earn part of the equity of the player who folded.

Anyway I did not use the word "average equity" in the context of SSHE "pot equity". If I may try to make it simpler:

If you play 100 hands 3-handed you win the pot 33 times
If you play the same 100 hands heads-up you win the pot 50 times.
That's again with the simplistic assumption that each player has the same chances of winning the pot.

Re: Tossing AK
 

That's again with the simplistic assumption that each player has the same chances of winning the pot.


This is the statement that people are not agreeing with here. Depending on what villian has you may be moving from winning 10% to winning 15%, or from 60% to 70%. Based upon the action it is hard to imagine you're still not way behind and thus not increasing to the 50% mark.

Edit: I'm actually not convinced you're way behind given this action.