Two Plus Two Older Archives

Two Plus Two Older Archives (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Micro-Limits (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=33)
-   -   A flopped straight hits massive aggression. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=297319)

Eeegah 07-21-2005 03:29 AM

A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
This was I believe the villain's second hand at the table. On his previous hand he also went bezerk, but seeing as he had QQ and a flush on the turn I couldn't really blame him. He did buy in with the minimum though if that means anything to you.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (15.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero...

Yeah, them big blind specials are really something, and this guy seems to love his hand too. When the board pairs and I'm thinking about putting in the last two bets though (he's sure to cap it), something goes off in my mind. The most obvious hand he could have with this aggression is another straight, in which case we split--in fact, 3 betting and letting him cap here is bad for both of us since we just feed the rake.

More importantly, he'd also need specifically 43 to do so, and he'd have to be even loser than the average Stars .25/.50 fish to play that--although hey, it is connected and it might even be sooted!. So what else could he have? He could have been limping KK or QQ, in which case I'll just laugh my way to the bank. More likely though is him flopping Aces up or a set, and with a second Ace on the turn that spells bad news.

And so I'm torn: capping seems counterproductive here as a split is certainly possible, as well as a loss. On the other hand he could be an idiot; who knows. This is a toughie for me, and I'm not really clear how I should proceed. Do I go ahead and 3-bet here, or just call?

Kumubou 07-21-2005 03:34 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
No, to me the most obvious thing that would be getting capped here is either two pair (ace-rag anyone) or a set (22/55.. AA if he's a dick). Once the A pairs, you are boned. I just slow down then (to.. the turn 3-bet), as the only thing that you beat now is an ultra-aggro TPMK into trips.

-K

aK13 07-21-2005 03:34 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
I'm check/call the river. I'm fairly convinced by the turn cap that I'm behind a full house.

eviljeff 07-21-2005 03:52 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
[ QUOTE ]

The most obvious hand he could have with this aggression is another straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
uh I think this is the least obvious and least likely.

[ QUOTE ]
He could have been limping KK or QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
ok, I was wrong. this has got to be the least likely.

[ QUOTE ]
More likely though is him flopping Aces up or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]
now you're talking. the way he's not backing down it looks like he flopped 2pair or a set and filled up on the turn.

I put the brakes on after his turn cap and c/c the river. I think a 3bet here is out of the question.

adsman 07-21-2005 06:40 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
That turn card is ugly, brutal ugly, we're talking Kirsty Alley naked here. I'm going to wuss out and just call his turn raise and check/call the river. Str8's on the flop are so easily counterfieted and it's really hard to tell if you're still good. And this is a classic example.

ClonexxSA 07-21-2005 07:32 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
I would put em on a set of 2s or 5s on the flop, possibly 2 pair with A2 or A5.

Either way, all of the possible hands I can put him on pretty much screw your straight. I call the raise on the turn and then check/call the river expecting to be shown a full house.

07-21-2005 08:25 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
I'd bet call the turn, and check call the river.

The paired board is too scary to continue with agression due to the probable full house.

I wouldn't be thinking 3-4 though!

jrz1972 07-21-2005 08:32 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
Once you're raised on the turn, you're either up against a boat or villian is grossly overplaying some weaker holding. Just call down from there.

Mooski 07-21-2005 09:19 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
So have we dismissed the possibility of AA, KK, or AK because it looks like a slow-played pre-flop? (I'm new, so learning here.)

Once the Ace dropped on the flop, he seemed to like it, which to this newbie, looks like he had one in his hand and either a very good kicker, or a 2 or 5 for two pairs. And he wasn't put off by the K on the river either which tells me he had you beaten. 22 or 55? Someone help here, I can't decide.

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

droolie 07-21-2005 11:08 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
The turn 3-bet is close to being overplayed but I guess he might have just a big A so I don't hate it. Leading the river after he caps the turn is bad. 9 times out of 10 he has the boat and you're dead in the water. Check call there for the size of the pot and that 1 in 10 chance he's a moron.

gopnik 07-21-2005 11:20 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
I think I'd slow down on the turn and start calling down after the board paired. Really looks like a flopped set.

07-21-2005 11:27 AM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
Im not sure what I would do. It could even be high clubs in a low limit game. I would just check call, because it also seems like he could have AK or a set. The second ace was bad news.

Eeegah 07-21-2005 02:02 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
[ QUOTE ]
uh I think this is the least obvious and least likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's an even less likely holding here, namely what he actually had.

Villain showed K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He flopped a flush draw and bottom pair, severely overplayed it, missed his flush draw and counterfeited his pair with a pair of kings and proceeded to overplay that.

Villain went on to bust a few hands later holding A5o on a KJ5 board. His 10BB buyin lasted less than a full orbit. I'd have buddy listed him, but he won't last long enough for it to be profitable unless Stars opens some Razz tables.

07-21-2005 03:05 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
I typically try not to read into anything on what someone buys in with on a table; I figure there are way too many variables in that, more than I could accurately pin anything on. (Not being preachy - I certainly hope it didn't come across like that.)

Flop: His aggression here smacks of him having 2 pair or trips. I would be thinking of that myself on the Turn and at the RIver.

Turn: OK, the only thing that can beat you here is AA, A5, A2, 55, and 22. 3-betting here could go either way, but I think aggression is a better call here so I won't split that hair.

River: Now AK and KK are scary, but I think that's less of a possibility since I suspect he'd raise preflop. With it all said and done, I'd probably just call here. I might have even just checked the River to call him when he bet, but that may be too passive.

nomadtla 07-21-2005 03:19 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Villain showed K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

hey at least they were sooted.
You thought it was a big blind special when it was more like the Villan was special .

tor 07-21-2005 03:39 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
*grunching*

Given no read and a MP call, and his aggression up to here I put him on the following hands


Behind to

KK(but I'm only going to give him 1 way 'cause of odd flop play)
55, 3 ways
22, 3 ways
AA, 1 way
AK, 6 ways
A5s, 2 ways
A2s, 2 ways

20 ways you can be behind

Ahead of
AQ, 8 ways
AJ, 8 ways
AT, 8 ways

24 ways you can be ahead.

Tie
43s, 2 ways

2 ways to tie
You're ahead here 50% of the time, which I think is conservative. Bet. You might push him off the 43s.


Btw, this is the first time I've ever done the math this way and made a suggestion accordingly. Really, it doesn't look like it matter *much* whether you bet or call. But by the numbers, your aggression here gives you a teeensy bit of fold equity to stack on top of that 50% so it's worth capping by the numbers.

There's also a possibility albiet 0.1% he might fold one of the weaker full houses. You must exploit these tiny edges to become a winning player!

I'm posting this mostly serious, but laughing to myself 'cause it feels so wrong. Someone smack me down with logic, please.

nomadtla 07-21-2005 03:46 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
[ QUOTE ]
There's also a possibility albiet 0.1% he might fold one of the weaker full houses. You must exploit these tiny edges to become a winning player!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the posibility of feeding the rake kinda negates these little edges.
but with a 50%+/- chance of a win I see betting as feeding the rake.
I like the mathwork though good post

deception5 07-21-2005 04:11 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
I call down after the turn raise unless I know the villian will overplay something like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in which case I cap every street [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

tor 07-21-2005 04:19 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
Wow, I suck at math...

18 ways behind
24 ways ahead
2 way tie

You're ahead here 54% of the time PLUS any folding equity for small full houses and the 43s I gave credit for. Bet this river.

tor 07-21-2005 04:21 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's also a possibility albiet 0.1% he might fold one of the weaker full houses. You must exploit these tiny edges to become a winning player!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the posibility of feeding the rake kinda negates these little edges.
but with a 50%+/- chance of a win I see betting as feeding the rake.
I like the mathwork though good post

[/ QUOTE ]

Hadn't thought about the rake here factoring into things. Glad you liked the math, even though I can't add correctly. I think you're ahead here now 54.5% plus you have some folding equity on top of that. Do you still think betting would be feeding the rake? How much of an edge do you have to have for something like this to not fear the raker?

nomadtla 07-21-2005 04:40 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
Given this guys aggression I think you overestimate your fold equity. (Though I think if you can reasonably put villan on the hands you listed which with an unknown I usually wouldn't be that generous with his holdings but I'm a big wus. If he was a known maniac then I'd open up that range, a little but I usually give my villans more credit than their worth, because as I said I'm a big wus.) I think 54% is about the lowest edge I wanna really push HU given the rake in most micros. Though I don't know how Party rakes or if its rake has a max. So with all that said, and a slight dissapointment cause I didn't even notice your math error either yeah by your math a bet is +EV but I think it's on the fringe, and being the wus I am I'd call.

07-21-2005 04:41 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
[ QUOTE ]
Villain showed K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Incredible. More proof that "Save pots, not bets" is perhaps the best advice I have ever taken to heart when it comes to poker.

07-21-2005 04:50 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
The only thing to do here really is call, its easy not to give credit to crappy players for their hands, but they hit just like everyone else...
cdl

07-21-2005 05:42 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
On the flop I was thinking he had a flush draw. I would have also bet and 3-bet the flop.

On the turn I was thinking he flopped 2 pair, and picked up the full house on the turn. But, I would have bet and then called his raise.

On the river, I probably check-fold because I think I'm beat but there's 16.2 BB in the pot.

07-21-2005 05:45 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
I didn't think he slowplayed. I thought he had a mediocre to poor A-2 or A-5 in the hole.

07-21-2005 05:48 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
I mean check-call.

Eeegah 07-21-2005 05:48 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
[ QUOTE ]
On the river, I probably check-fold because I think I'm beat but there's 16.2 BB in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only way I'm folding this river is if the villain turned his cards face up and showed me the boat, and even then I'd probably still call it out of sheer bitterness.

07-21-2005 05:49 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
Right. I meant check-call (that's why I mentioned the 16.2BB). Sorry about that.

TripleH68 07-21-2005 05:54 PM

Re: A flopped straight hits massive aggression.
 
Check-raise the turn/call a 3-bet.
Check/call the river.

You get a decent amount of bets in this way
and will find out if villain is at all maniacal.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:08 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, vBulletin Solutions Inc.