Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

As of 6:42 PM $258,300

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

At what level does it become +EV?

I remember there being a post working it out, but I can't find it for the life of me.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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At what level does it become +EV?

I remember there being a post working it out, but I can't find it for the life of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

$2-$4 $193,205.51
$3-$6 $222,151.66
$5-$10 $247,629.10
$10-$20 $275,848.94
$15-$30 $262,267.69

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At what level does it become +EV?

I remember there being a post working it out, but I can't find it for the life of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

$2-$4 $193,205.51
$3-$6 $222,151.66
$5-$10 $247,629.10
$10-$20 $275,848.94
$15-$30 $262,267.69

[/ QUOTE ]

this is so wrong it's not even funny.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

[ QUOTE ]
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At what level does it become +EV?

I remember there being a post working it out, but I can't find it for the life of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

$2-$4 $193,205.51
$3-$6 $222,151.66
$5-$10 $247,629.10
$10-$20 $275,848.94
$15-$30 $262,267.69

[/ QUOTE ]

this is so wrong it's not even funny.

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What is the correct answer then? Inquiring minds want to know.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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this is so wrong it's not even funny.

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How is that wrong?? Its not like I just made it up. If it was wrong don't you think the 805432412 who see this page on BW.com would have said something?

http://www.bonuswhores.com/party-poker.php

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At what level does it become +EV?

I remember there being a post working it out, but I can't find it for the life of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

$2-$4 $193,205.51
$3-$6 $222,151.66
$5-$10 $247,629.10
$10-$20 $275,848.94
$15-$30 $262,267.69

[/ QUOTE ]

this is so wrong it's not even funny.

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If it's materially wrong, this is the 1st I've heard of it, and I crunched those numbers quite awhile ago.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

i actually HAVE said something about this on several occasions (in various threads regarding the BBJ).

I agree with Reef's assessment. It is just silly and I would be interested in where the hell they got these numbers from.

Why it would be -EV at $200k at 5/10 but +EV at 2/4 where the $0.50 drop represents a greater percentage of the BB is beyond me.

I'm no Homer or Ed Miller when it comes to the math. I pretty much suck at that stuff and if all of this 2+2 probability-math education was an actual class I would probably need to cheat just to squeak by with a B-....but I'm still pretty convinced (until proven otherwise) that these numbers have to be incorrect.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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i actually HAVE said something about this on several occasions (in various threads regarding the BBJ).

I agree with Reef's assessment. It is just silly and I would be interested in where the hell they got these numbers from.

Why it would be -EV at $200k at 5/10 but +EV at 2/4 where the $0.50 drop represents a greater percentage of the BB is beyond me.

I'm no Homer or Ed Miller when it comes to the math. I pretty much suck at that stuff and if all of this 2+2 probability-math education was an actual class I would probably need to cheat just to squeak by with a B-....but I'm still pretty convinced (until proven otherwise) that these numbers have to be incorrect.

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+EV for me since the players are BUTT.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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i actually HAVE said something about this on several occasions (in various threads regarding the BBJ).

Why it would be -EV at $200k at 5/10 but +EV at 2/4 where the $0.50 drop represents a greater percentage of the BB is beyond me.

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It's because less hands are raked at 2/4 than at 5/10, so you're paying less at 2/4 then you are at 5/10 for your shot at the BBJ.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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[ QUOTE ]
i actually HAVE said something about this on several occasions (in various threads regarding the BBJ).

Why it would be -EV at $200k at 5/10 but +EV at 2/4 where the $0.50 drop represents a greater percentage of the BB is beyond me.

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It's because less hands are raked at 2/4 than at 5/10, so you're paying less at 2/4 then you are at 5/10 for your shot at the BBJ.

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...but I can't imagine a qualifying hand that wouldnt be raked!

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

jek isn 't referring to qualifying hands that wouldn't be raked.
He is saying that at 2/4 there will be fewer raked-hands overall....so you essentially are getting more 'free' shots at it.

Obviously it's going to be raked (probably) if you hit it.
But at 2/4 I can see 100 hands and have a shot on EACH one....but they only take the JP drop 60% of the time.
Whereas at 5/10 they would take the JP drop 80% of the time.


I still disagree with his assessment.....but at least it makes a little more sense where he's coming up with the numbers.
Thanks for the explanation JEK.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

What's ignored in those numbers is how people play differently (more passively, primarily) in hopes of not forcing someone to fold a jackpot hand, and how that increases the earn of a good player, and thus adds EV.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

I think a lot of things are ignored.

Just because fewer hands are raked at 2/4 doesn't mean it makes it more EV imo.
Every hand that gets raked $1 is now getting tagged for $1.50 which is a significant jump for a 2/4 table. Obviously you have the shot at winning the jackpot....but I'm looking at how many more BB's you are paying for that.


At 15/30....IF it's raked then it's going to be $3....plus another $0.50.
And on a 15/30 table this is less significant.



I agree that the differences in play on the tables are a factor as well...but it's not possible to assess this as correctly.
JEK attempted to just look at the EV assuming the tables played the same.....but I just don't think the numbers are likely to be correct.

But if you are factoring in your own thoughts on the quality of the players then it is really just up to your best judgement when they are worthwhile to play.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

good points bob.. There have been times where I have folded a hand like 56s UTG when I would have made a str8 flush. That's rare, but it has happened to me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

If you have a table of 2+2ers only playing qualifying hands and never raising unless the board qualifies with their hands, of course the EV is +++++++++++++ I would think. I recall that happening when the jackpot was at about 750k.

Anyone know when a jackpot that is Aces full of Tens getting beat is +EV?

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

exactly

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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of course the EV is +++++++++++++ I would think. I recall that happening when the jackpot was at about 750k.

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I played on one of those 2+2 tables when the JP was at a then-record $450k and I disagree that it's EV+++++.

It's mostly a waste of time and effort actually. (alobar was one of those who was there and may or may not agree).

There is SOME EV in the chance of hitting the JP...and probably even more EV in the entertainment value out of doing something so silly.

But there was always at least 1 or 2 players who didn't understand how the JP worked or what hands they should play PF.
Not all 2+2'ers are able to stay on the same page on such things. There was actually a lot of post-flop play even though there wasn't supposed to be and there were people who had to constantly be told what qualified and what didn't.

Additionally, you lose some EV on the chance that party sees the thread of the table set-up on 2+2 and decides not to pay-out because all the players were 'trying' to check-it-down (more often than not) for a JP.

Some might say 'it's perfectly legit....and how can they do that?'
It's THEIR jackpot and it's up to them. If they see the thread and decide ON THEIR OWN that they don't like what they see then they can deny it and nobody can do anything about it.
Consideration of that possibility takes away some of the EV.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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At what level does it become +EV?

I remember there being a post working it out, but I can't find it for the life of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

$2-$4 $193,205.51
$3-$6 $222,151.66
$5-$10 $247,629.10
$10-$20 $275,848.94
$15-$30 $262,267.69

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this is so wrong it's not even funny.

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If it's materially wrong, this is the 1st I've heard of it, and I crunched those numbers quite awhile ago.

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apologies Jek if I'm in over my head, but it just seems fundamentally wrong for the jackpot to have to be HIGHER for 15/30 players.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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i actually HAVE said something about this on several occasions (in various threads regarding the BBJ).

Why it would be -EV at $200k at 5/10 but +EV at 2/4 where the $0.50 drop represents a greater percentage of the BB is beyond me.

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It's because less hands are raked at 2/4 than at 5/10, so you're paying less at 2/4 then you are at 5/10 for your shot at the BBJ.

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I'd like to see #'s for BB/100 the jackpot drop costs at each of the levels.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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we're not looking at table rake, we're looking at the jackpot drop, no?

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if it's an unraked hand then there is no JP drop.
That is the basis of JEK's argument.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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we're not looking at table rake, we're looking at the jackpot drop, no?

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if it's an unraked hand then there is no JP drop.
That is the basis of JEK's argument.

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ya, I just caught that. I edited my post. I still wanna see #'s to back this up in terms of BB/100 taken by the JP drop.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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Just because fewer hands are raked at 2/4 doesn't mean it makes it more EV imo.
Every hand that gets raked $1 is now getting tagged for $1.50 which is a significant jump for a 2/4 table. Obviously you have the shot at winning the jackpot....but I'm looking at how many more BB's you are paying for that.


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This shouldn't affect the EV--Essentially the bad beat jackpot is a sidebet (much like insurance in blackjack). Though the extra .50c feels like it hurts your 2/4 results more than your 15/30 results, the flipside is that if you hit the jackpot, the jackpot is much larger in relation to the 2/4 game than it is in the 15/30 game. I don't really know jek's model, but it certainly seems logical that the jackpot would have to be smaller for the small games than the big games for other reasons than just the rake (more people playing more hands means much more likely to be players around to hit the jackpot). His numbers seem higher than I'd imagine (I would think that it would have to be somewhere around 40% larger than average in size to cover the 30% you lose off the top of their quoted number and jek's numbers seem much larger than that), but I also assume that these are the prices for someone paying 1/10th of the rake. If you are a tight-ass like most are here, the jackpot can be much lower I think (though maybe the decreased chance of winning big offsets the table shares?)?

I stand by none of my ramble as I'm just guessing :-), I was just saying why it's flawed to take into account how it hurts your results in the poker game by percentage more in the 2/4 game than the 15/30, because it's really a different game.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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much like insurance in blackjack

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I stand by none of my ramble as I'm just guessing :-), I was just saying why it's flawed to take into account how it hurts your results in the poker game by percentage more in the 2/4 game than the 15/30, because it's really a different game.

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Okay - NOW I'm seeing it a bit better than before. As I've already stated...I'm an idiot on all this math stuff and am just guessing my way through it.

you are correct that it should be treated as a 'different' game and I'm not sure why I wasn't quite seeing that before considering that i already AM an advantage-BJ player and understand that insuring a 20 or a 13 is still the same thing (assuming the deck is 10-rich enough to make the bet worthwhile).


My only disagreement with your post is a minor one and that is in regards to the idea that the 2+2'ers are contributing less because they are playing like a tight-ass.
On the BBJ tables that I play on (5/10 and 10/20) I find that the play is often-times MORE passive than regular tables.
Folded all the way around to the blinds much more frequently.
To that end, I was raising MORE pots more often and probably had a higher VP than many of my opponents.

I was not using my GT+....just basing it on my general table-read and my success at bullying the table when I decided to start doing that.
Small sample-size and maybe I'm jhust hitting super-passive tables where I am the one playing the most hands. And perhaps it is different at 2/4 and 3/6.
Just expressing the idea that it's possible that the whole "tight-ass 2+2'er" element doesn't necessarily apply (but if I hadn't been playing these recently I would have otherwise agreed with you).

Very nice post and thanks for helping me start to see the light a bit better.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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At what level does it become +EV?

I remember there being a post working it out, but I can't find it for the life of me.

[/ QUOTE ]

$2-$4 $193,205.51
$3-$6 $222,151.66
$5-$10 $247,629.10
$10-$20 $275,848.94
$15-$30 $262,267.69

[/ QUOTE ]

this is so wrong it's not even funny.

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If it's materially wrong, this is the 1st I've heard of it, and I crunched those numbers quite awhile ago.

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apologies Jek if I'm in over my head, but it just seems fundamentally wrong for the jackpot to have to be HIGHER for 15/30 players.

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It's no problem, these are honest concerns. Here's why 2/4 needs a lower jackpot than 15/30:
Assume that anytime there's a real jackpot, the hand will be raked.
$.50 is raked per raked hand
At 2/4 maybe 60% of the hands are raked (this % may be off, I don't have the exact data in front of me.) So, at 60 hands/hr, the table is paying $.50*60*.6 = $18 for 60 chances to hit a BBJ.
At 15/30, maybe 95% of the hands are raked. So, this would be $.50*60*.95 = $28.50 the table pays for 60 chances at the BBJ. When you pay less per chance, you need a smaller payoff for it to become +EV, thus 2/4 needs a smaller BBJ than 15/30.

Gotmilk made a good post as to why the % of the pot doesn't matter.

There are of course further calculations (probability of a BBJ going off, what a tight player actually pays in rake) but I hope that the theory behind why 2/4 needs a lower BBJ than 15/30 is clear now.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

Ok yes, that's interesting and I concur that your calculations are probably correct and that the Bad Beat Jackpots become +EV but....

...is it not an overlay on a low-probability event ? In other words, for the time you have to sit there and swing in a ring game with BBJ the ring game itself should still have a positive +EV for the effort to be worthwhile.

Otherwise, isn't this all really just an academic exercise for theoreticians?

For example, we have a lottery in Canada that's called 6-49, and you must get 6 numbers correct out of 49 numbers drawn to win the jackpot. Now, we all know that it's ~ 13 Million - 1 to win the jackpot, but if the jackpot sometimes rises to $16, even $20 Million I don't buy a ticket because I'm still risking $2 on a very improbable event.

Anyone shed any light on my analysis, or is this much different with the BBJ poker?

Thanks,

Karatitis
Toronto, Canada

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

You have to figure in that the person that wins the BBJ isn't the only person that is paid. The entire gets a portion. That is where it becomes +EV

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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I played on one of those 2+2 tables when the JP was at a then-record $450k and I disagree that it's EV+++++.

It's mostly a waste of time and effort actually. (alobar was one of those who was there and may or may not agree).

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I agree, especially since it wouldnt take to much investigative work to realize what we were doing (hell all the railbird chat that table generated alone, ratted us out), and I'm 99.9% sure party wouldnt have awarded the jackpot to us if we had hit it.

I had a lot of fun at that table that night, but its not something I would do again.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

The true EV analysis of BBJ tables has more to do with game conditions than the JP (and I do not know what the differences are). However, it is nice to know when you are not paying 'extra' to play at these tables vs. a normal table of the same limit.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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The true EV analysis of BBJ tables has more to do with game conditions than the JP

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This is true. Jackpot games are much looser. People chase all pp and suited connectors (or 2-3gappers).

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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Ok yes, that's interesting and I concur that your calculations are probably correct and that the Bad Beat Jackpots become +EV but....

...is it not an overlay on a low-probability event ? In other words, for the time you have to sit there and swing in a ring game with BBJ the ring game itself should still have a positive +EV for the effort to be worthwhile.

Otherwise, isn't this all really just an academic exercise for theoreticians?

For example, we have a lottery in Canada that's called 6-49, and you must get 6 numbers correct out of 49 numbers drawn to win the jackpot. Now, we all know that it's ~ 13 Million - 1 to win the jackpot, but if the jackpot sometimes rises to $16, even $20 Million I don't buy a ticket because I'm still risking $2 on a very improbable event.

Anyone shed any light on my analysis, or is this much different with the BBJ poker?

Thanks,

Karatitis
Toronto, Canada

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Lotteries are a somewhat of a different beast due to the fact that there can be multiple winners, forcing a split pot.

There is a point though with any jackpot game where it becomes a reasonable move to play.

It is human nature to want to take a shot to win big and luckily there are times where it is actually to your advantage to do so.

It isn't like you are missing out huge by not running to your computer every time these events happen. But we are lucky there are opportunties like this to take a shot.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

Uglyowk,

Ok, yes I concur that the lottery example is somewhat different.

But, what I was trying to illustrate here is that chasing positive EV in a miniscule probability event can't always be worth "running to your computer" as you put it.

For example, the ring games themselves should be beatable for the player in question. Then - if all that is true, what are the chances that you're gonna hit quads in the same hand that someone else has the st8 flush, etc.

Re: Alert: Party BBJ now +EV through 5/10 level
 

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due to the fact that there can be multiple winners, forcing a split pot.

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right.


I'm not familiar with my lottery-math either.


but if you have a lottery with a 13-mil to 1 chance of hitting....and the lottery stands at $20-mil (for a $1 ticket)....is it still a +EV play if 100-million decide to play it?
I think not. If you are lucky enough to hit there is a good chance that you will be splitting the pot with 1 or 2 other folk.