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-   -   Are my odds better than they seem? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=296931)

R_Ellender 07-20-2005 04:13 PM

Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Here's a hand I played in a tournament recently, I'd like to hear your comments on my analysis.

The blinds are 25 and 50(pot=75). With two loose limpers ahead of me, I decide to limp from a middle position with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](pot=225). There's a limp behind me followed by a +250 raise on the button from a tight, somewhat predictable player(pot=575). Both loose limpers fold, and the action is on me. Judging by a tell I have on the player, combined with his tendency to only raise his big pairs with so many people limping into the pot, I put him on KK or QQ. It costs me 250, so the pot is laying me about 2.33:1 odds, and my hand will beat KK or QQ about 33% of the time(2:1), so I call(pot=825), but not for the reasons most people would.

Yes, the pot is laying me 2.33:1 on a 2:1 shot, but my odds are 2:1 assuming that I only win as often as my cards allow me to. When I made the call, I took into account the odds that I could bluff my opponent, so I figured my +EV was higher than it should be.

Here's how it worked out... The limper behind me folds, and out comes the flop.

FLOP: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I'm either way behind(against a set) or drawing to five outs. Either way, I didn't come out in the lead on the flop. I check to the raiser, and he bets 400, laying me about 3:1. Based on my read of his betting patterns(he would have checked his set), I decide he has KK, so I have five outs... or do I have more?

My full outs were:

3 aces + 2 tens = 5

But then I considered my bluffing outs... three queens and nine hearts. If a queen comes, I can represent trips, and if a heart comes, I can represent the flush. So far, I've been checking to the raiser when I felt I was behind or when I was on a draw, so I was confident I could represent either hand with a check-call on the flop. I think any one of these cards can win for me about 75% of the time(since bluffing can't be 100%), so I count them as 9 outs.

3 queens + 9 hearts = 12 * 0.75 = 9

In my mind, I have 14 outs to win this pot. With 14 outs, my odds of improving on the turn are 2.2:1, and the pot is laying me 3:1, so I call(pot=1625).

TURN: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I like this card alot, I just need to decide how to play it. I decide that a bet smaller than half the pot would be a good choice because this player has already seen me make small value bets on the turn and river on previous hands(where I knew I had my opponent beat, but my opponent couldn't lay down because of the small bets). I bet 600, representing the flush, and I can tell by his visible disappointment that he hates the bet. Meanwhile, I'm considering the odds in my head... I believe there's around a 75% chance he will fold here(because he knows I will bet the river), but if not, I still have a few outs.

I still have the aces and tens, but the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] may be no good(if my opponent holds the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), so I count them as 1 out. Add the other 2 aces and the other ten, and I have 4 outs, giving me about a 9% chance of improving(10.5:1 or so). It's not looking good, but since I assess my chances of winning the pot right there at 75%, I'm not so worried.

He calls. (pot=2825)

RIVER: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BOARD: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Well now my only chances of winning are representing the flush. With a pot of 2825, and my opponent having about 1600 remaining in his stack, I decide to bet 1200. He's really not happy here, but unfortunately for me, he was on some kind of "my kings just got cracked" semi-tilt. He tells me, "If you have the hearts, you win." and he shoves the rest of his stack in. Needless to say, the table was shocked when I said I had nothing and mucked my hand, but that's not the point.

The way the hand was played, he could have only beaten a bluff, because I wouldn't have played top pair or a pair of tens or sixes like that. I would have been long gone with a pair of tens, and I would've continued to play passively on the turn with top pair(when the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fell), because I didn't represent a hand like AQ with a raise preflop(and my opponent represented a big hand). Also, I'm not going to be in there with a pocket pair unless I trip up on the flop(since he thought I had a boat), so he can't put me on a hand like JJ or 77. I'm not going to check-call the flop with those hands, much less bet out the turn and river with them. In other words, with creative postflop play, I increased my odds of winning against the big pair significantly, though the results weren't there on this particular occasion.

So are my odds better than they seem throughout this hand? Or should I eliminate counting my bluff outs, or stop considering my chances of bluffing at some point while calculating preflop odds? I believe thinking along the lines of maximizing my chance to win each and every pot that I get involved in, even without the cards, is a +EV play in the long run. That's not to say I'm playing to win pots, because Sklansky wouldn't agree with that philosophy. But I'm coming to find out that in poker, no-limit especially, each pot has alot more dead money in it than people are aware of.

bobman0330 07-20-2005 04:30 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Coincidentally, I was considering this question this morning. You should not count bluffing outs as outs, and here's why:
If you hit a T, you win the pot.
If you hit a heart, you have an opportunity to make a profitable bluff. Say he folds 50% of the time to a half-pot bet. Great bluff, but the EV is equal to about 1/4 of the pot. So what you're winning is not really the pot, but a smaller prize.

pzhon 07-20-2005 04:35 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Fold preflop after a tight player raises behind your ATs.

You put your opponent on too tight of a range of hands.

You counted cards as bluffing outs that were not outs, since you bet twice after one such card hit and your opponent didn't fold. Potential scare cards are not worth nearly as much as cards that actually make a hand.

R_Ellender 07-20-2005 04:53 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
You're right, and I'm actually working on the math to see how the play would work out over time. I counted the bluff outs as partial outs because I didn't think they would be successful all the time, but I am sure I overestimate their true value.

R_Ellender 07-20-2005 05:03 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
I did put him on a tight range of hands, but I've played with this player many times, so I was pretty confident of my read. I've seen him turn over many AK's and AQ's at the showdown in an unraised pot, because he is the type of player who thinks he shouldn't raise AK because he might not hit the flop.

As I said to the person who posted above you, I probably overestimated the value of the bluff outs. Maybe I could have given up on the river, because the final bet probably didn't have a very good +EV.

I'm just thinking my odds are better than they seem in many situations because players are either afraid of what cards their opponents may hold or players raise with a hand like AK and miss the flop, leaving them in a situation where they can't call a big bet.

07-20-2005 05:04 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Can you explain me why you only get 1/4 of the pot? Is there something I don't understand, how am I supposed to calculate the value of the bet vs the value of the pot?

DeepFryer 07-20-2005 05:07 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
I would say this is a case of over-thinking the situation & trying to be too clever. For one thing, I disagree that there was a 75% chance of the opponent folding once a scare cards comes up.

And before the flop, you said your EV was higher than the pot odds indicate, because you could bluff some percentage of the time. But can't your opponent bluff too, when you hit the better hand?

And when you were making your decision to call before the flop, shouldn't you take into account the rather large sum of money that you'll lose if your bluff gets called?

WhiteWolf 07-20-2005 07:42 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
[ QUOTE ]

...shouldn't you take into account the rather large sum of money that you'll lose if your bluff gets called?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good point. If OP is going to count bluff cards as outs, he also needs to factor in his future bluff bets to get his true effective odds.

pzhon 07-20-2005 11:58 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I did put him on a tight range of hands, but I've played with this player many times, so I was pretty confident of my read.

[/ QUOTE ]
You seemed certain that he had KK rather than AA or QQ or AQ or AK or J9. How many thousands of hours have you logged with this guy? How sure are you that he will never change the way he plays?

[ QUOTE ]

I'm just thinking my odds are better than they seem in many situations because players are either afraid of what cards their opponents may hold or players raise with a hand like AK and miss the flop, leaving them in a situation where they can't call a big bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't succeed if you make him wet his pants. Your bluff succeeds if he folds. Apparently, you didn't have a good read on what it would take to make him fold. Maybe in the time you were observing him, he observed you bluffing every scare card hand after hand.

Whether you believe it or not, your analysis was poor. Your play was poor. You threw away a lot of chips when the card you thought was good hit. Did your odds feel better than they seemed?

R_Ellender 07-21-2005 12:29 AM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Thanks for the criticism. I'm sorry if my play offended you, but what's done is done. We obviously don't think along the same lines. If my posts are that upsetting, I'd appreciate it if you just didn't reply.

pzhon 07-21-2005 01:14 AM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the criticism. I'm sorry if my play offended you, but what's done is done.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would bad play offend me?

[ QUOTE ]
We obviously don't think along the same lines. If my posts are that upsetting, I'd appreciate it if you just didn't reply.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you come to 2+2 to brag about bluffing off your stack, or to learn something? When you post lousy analysis, I'll rebut it if I feel like it, whether you appreciate it or not.

RiverDood 07-21-2005 01:44 AM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
It's fascinating analysis -- and Hero did a fine job of identifying all the cards that would bring Villain to the brink of folding.

But the key fact is right in the opening description. You're up against a "tight, somewhat predictable player." In my experience, Tight/SPPs hate to lay down super-premium hands. They grimace, they squirm and they sweat when the board throws up scare cards. But they've been waiting two hours to jam the pot when AA or KK shows up. No matter what's on the board, they just can't get away from those hands.

So accept the fact right away that getting him to the brink of folding isn't the same as getting him to fold. Let his massive preflop overbet take down a small pot. Then get even by hijacking his blinds on the next five orbits.

It's easier, more profitable and less stressful.

damaniac 07-21-2005 01:57 AM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Even assuming your hand range is correct and your equity is correct, your evaluation is flawed. The 2.33:1 only counts if you see all 5 cards. You will usually need to pay more money on the flop, so your odds are substantially worse.

R_Ellender 07-21-2005 12:31 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
That's a good point you make. Alot of players have a hard time laying down a premium pair, and there I go, trying to bluff someone off of one.

I've used similar plays with some degree of success, but only once can I remember making someone lay down KK in a ring game. Against this player, I'll make sure that I save that wasted river bet for some blind stealing.

R_Ellender 07-21-2005 12:36 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Yes, my effective odds need to be taken into account. I'll have to find a good resource on flop probabilities so I can make better decisions preflop. Know any?

R_Ellender 07-21-2005 12:51 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Well your previous post wasn't helpful at all, and this one is going nowhere. It seemed the bad play had to offend you because you felt you had to criticize me, and I came to 2+2 to learn something, but I don't think you are fit to teach.

I don't see how "your play was poor, your analysis was poor, etc.." does anything to give me help. Also, "fold AT against a tight raiser" is just "if A, then do B" advice, and the fact that no two situations are alike make that statement incorrect.

I'm sure you will quote each line of this post, and make a comment to go with each, but I don't see where that could help either one of us. However, I'll still give thanks for your help in your previous posts, if that is what you were trying to offer.

pzhon 07-21-2005 01:23 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Well your previous post wasn't helpful at all,

[/ QUOTE ]
I suggested that you don't have nearly enough data to be so sure your opponent has KK, and gave a number of different possible hands he might have instead. I also said that if you have had a lot of experience playing him, he has probably observed you bluffing frequently. I also pointed out that you not only didn't pick up the pot, you lost a lot of extra chips when one of your bluffing outs hit.

If you didn't find that helpful, the fault is yours, not mine.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you are fit to teach.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is a pathetic ad hominem attack. If you are so satisfied with your overconfidence in your reads, your misanalysis, and your poor play, feel free to ignore my advice. I will ignore you henceforth.

R_Ellender 07-21-2005 03:27 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I will ignore you henceforth.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you.

Iconoclastic 07-21-2005 03:37 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Good original post. The thing that struck me was that the 75% estimate of him folding to the scare cards was probably where you went wrong. Congrats on the good read on his hand btw, it's a sign of great talent to narrow it down that much and apply it.

Wake up CALL 07-21-2005 03:40 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Good original post. The thing that struck me was that the 75% estimate of him folding to the scare cards was probably where you went wrong. Congrats on the good read on his hand btw, it's a sign of great talent to narrow it down that much and apply it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Appy it???? Am I missing something here? First he correctly puts the player on a big hand, then he calls preflop, on the flop on the turn and then bluffs off his stack on the river? Where did he apply his read? What he did is talk himself into putting the player on some other bluffable hand then proceeded to throw away his chips.

R_Ellender 07-21-2005 06:16 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
Apparently I overestimated my opponent's ability to lay down a hand he thinks is beaten. He was surprised to still be in the tournament afterwards.

I've used similar plays many times with some degree of success, I just decided to use this example because it was one of my earliest that I remember.

If a bluff has a chance of succeeding that is higher than the odds the pot is giving me, I should make the play, whether it works or not. Sometimes I raise preflop with AA and still lose, but my raise was still correct because I put my money in as a favorite.

I could have easily saved the river bet, or maybe made a larger turn bet to induce a fold, but hindsight is always 20/20.

Wake up CALL 07-21-2005 06:27 PM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Apparently I overestimated my opponent's ability to lay down a hand he thinks is beaten. He was surprised to still be in the tournament afterwards.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ya think?

[ QUOTE ]
I've used similar plays many times with some degree of success, I just decided to use this example because it was one of my earliest that I remember.


[/ QUOTE ]

Results oriented thinking.


[ QUOTE ]
If a bluff has a chance of succeeding that is higher than the odds the pot is giving me, I should make the play, whether it works or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously the odds were not sufficiently high to make the bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes I raise preflop with AA and still lose, but my raise was still correct because I put my money in as a favorite.


[/ QUOTE ]

Finally a correct statement although it has no relevance to what you did which was calling a preflop raise with a poor hand out of position.


[ QUOTE ]
I could have easily saved the river bet, or maybe made a larger turn bet to induce a fold, but hindsight is always 20/20.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems not to be so since you still seem to think you played at least a portion of this hand correctly.

R_Ellender 07-22-2005 02:14 AM

Re: Are my odds better than they seem?
 
I don't see how you can call my thinking results-oriented and then follow it up by basing your criticisms on the results of my play. If I said I went all-in with AA, got called by KK, and my big pair was cracked, would you criticize my play because it didn't turn out successfully on that one occasion?

If I bet half the pot, and there's a 50% chance my opponent will fold, the bet has positive expectation. No, it won't work every time, the same way AA doesn't hold up every time. However, in the long run, I will make money.

Over 100 plays, I win the pot 50 times(+50) and lose a bet that is half the pot 50 times(-25). That comes out to 25 pots gained over 100 plays. +EV.

And yes, I called with a "poor hand" out of position, but your hand is only one of many variables affecting your situation. There are times when the cards are irrelevant because of other situational factors. If this game was just about the cards, the only losers would be the ones that played anything less than the nuts. But the game is obviously not just about the cards.

Think about it... you raise with AK utg and get one caller. The flop comes A76, you check, and your opponent bets. You raise, your opponent folds. You checkraised, and he folded. It's easy to see that if your hand was 27o in this situation, you still would have taken the pot down unless you had some serious tells when you were bluffing. So is it incorrect to open the pot from UTG with 27o? Theoretically, yes, it's a garbage hand. But since your hand is only a small piece of the puzzle, other factors can be more important than your hand's lack of strength.

Take Dan Harrington's squeeze play with 26o in the 2004 WSOP as an example. His play on the hand had nothing to do with his cards and everything to do with his situation.

From now on, if you have nothing positive to post, please save yourself the trouble of typing any more negative comments you may have. This site is a place for people to seek advice and share ideas, not to criticize each other because you and I don't share the same viewpoints.


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