Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

50$ MTT on party

I am on the button with 2200 TCs. Blinds 15/30. Fairly new table, has been plenty of limping, and post flop aggression is generally respected.

2 limpers, I make it 150 with AKd. Blinds fold, limpers call.

Pot is 495.

Flop 2 5 9 one diamond

Both players have between 750 and 800 behind.

It is checked to me, what are my betting options and why.

**I made what I consider a donkish mistake on the play, wanted to see what others would do.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I like 250 here. If they come over the top, you can still get away from it.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

Well, I hate getting two callers here, because it is rare that a continuation bet will take it down post flop.

The problem here is the pot size to the other stacks, if you pot it or 3/4 and they push you are obligated to pay them off hoping for 1010 or something. I would say its safe to assume that on of them has a (mid) PP.

I would just check here and save some chips and take the free turn card.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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I like 250 here. If they come over the top, you can still get away from it.

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sounds fine

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I think both betting and checking here is fine. You don't mind seeing a free turn but betting will win the pot most of the time.

Good spot to not be predictable.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

If you're going to make a continuation bet, 250 is about as high as you can go without being obliged to call an all-in.

The other option is checking behind. They would probably be expecting you to make a bet here, so their checks don't necessarily mean anything. Checking it back could throw them off-balance. You're really not worried about giving a free card here. A bet on the turn would probably be respected a lot more than a bet on the flop, and if one of them moves in on the turn, your hand is easy to get away from if it missed you.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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I like 250 here. If they come over the top, you can still get away from it.

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Can you? This is party poker. I recently doubled up, when I flopped 2 pair with J9, and was check raised all in from AQo.

Right idea, but probably overestimating your opponents pushing range

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

the more i think about it, the more i like checking.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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the more i think about it, the more i like checking.

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I agree. Given the general lack of F.E. you have early in a party MTT vs the average player, I dont think a 150-200 chip bet is winning very often, also the fact that you very well may lay down the best hand when raised.

I think I prefer
check
200 bet
push

in that order.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

the more i think about it, the more i like checking.

I'm getting the impression from you guys that you think it's more likely that you are behind than ahead.

My initial reaction when seeing this hand is that we are still ahead and given their stack sizes, I think we need to push if we're going to prevent free cards.

Luke

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I check behind.

You have a hand that could easily improve to be the best so you want to continue in the hand.
It's likely that you do not have the best hand.
If you bet and get check-raised it will be hard to continue.
It's early.
It's more likely for you to have a drawing hand than TT++.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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My initial reaction when seeing this hand is that we are still ahead and given their stack sizes, I think we need to push if we're going to prevent free cards.


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We arent afraid of free cards. If you threw away the flop and forced us to play just the next two cards, we are huge favorites to all non paired hands. So either we are way ahead or looking at a 70/30 dog.

The only problem with checking is the risk that we fold to a bet from Aj on the turn.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

You missed the flop against two players that could each be holding literally any two cards and might call with bottom pair if you push (consider your circumstances!). So I'm checking here. If they check to you on the turn then I'm putting a bet in, pretty much regardless of the turn card.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

If you are ahead, how is giving a free card going to hurt you ? A small pp is calling a push on this flop, because it looks like you want them to fold, I dont think Hero would play a over pair in this fashion. Heads up I could see a making a play at the pot , Three way early I am checking and thinking them for the free card.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

Agree.. There's no reason not to think we're ahead here.

If we get called or raised were beat and we know it.. if we check, we're still in the dark and pretty much putting our faith on winning the pot with our 6-outer.

Must bet the flop.. Checking is a weak option.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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If we get called or raised were beat and we know it.. if we check, we're still in the dark and pretty much putting our faith on winning the pot with our 6-outer.

Must bet the flop.. Checking is a weak option.

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Really - ok - now put yourself in one of the "limpers" shoes - when he raises preflop u may well put him on what he has and decide to take him off a "feeler" bet !!! I might [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

stoneii

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

My question before I make the move here is what are both of the limp-callers checking with after the flop here. I don't see either of them in all-liklihood limp-calling with Aces or Kings, probably even queens. 10-10 and J-J maybe make sense. In these cases though, I'd expect a flop bet from those hands. Hands like K-Q, K-J, Q-J, other suited connecters check here in all liklihood.

Other possibilities would be other pocket pairs which missed their sets, and give you credit for a higher pp.

Also a possibility is one of them hitting a set.

With all of these possible meanings of the limps, I think a continuation bet of 250 sounds about right. If either smooth calls, you can suspect a set. A reraise, maybe 10-10 or JJ. But I don't see either villian logically playing 10s or Js like that.

I have a bad feeling you bet too much and lost a showdown to a set. Results?

Brad

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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Agree.. There's no reason not to think we're ahead here.

If we get called or raised were beat and we know it.. if we check, we're still in the dark and pretty much putting our faith on winning the pot with our 6-outer.

Must bet the flop.. Checking is a weak option.

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You can say we are most likely beat, and I will agree. But you cant say "know", b/c we dont. As I mentioned I was check raised all in by AQ 10 hands ago at a prior table, so lets not pretend it is impossible. If you give the villan a 5-10% chance of bluffing at this pot with a check raise, then you have to call if you bet 250. Its a call I will make, but not one I am crazy about making.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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The only problem with checking is the risk that we fold to a bet from Aj on the turn.


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this is why checking makes me a little queasy. i like a bet of 225. it's kinda small, but if villain is willing to c/r air, nh, he wins the pot.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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Agree.. There's no reason not to think we're ahead here.

If we get called or raised were beat and we know it.. if we check, we're still in the dark and pretty much putting our faith on winning the pot with our 6-outer.

Must bet the flop.. Checking is a weak option.

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You can say we are most likely beat, and I will agree. But you cant say "know", b/c we dont. As I mentioned I was check raised all in by AQ 10 hands ago at a prior table, so lets not pretend it is impossible. If you give the villan a 5-10% chance of bluffing at this pot with a check raise, then you have to call if you bet 250. Its a call I will make, but not one I am crazy about making.

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i haven't done the math, but i'd be surprised if that's right? are you including the times villain has 77/A9, etc and you have 0-3 outs instead of 6?

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I banged my head on my desk as soon as I bet the flop

I bet 300, not really paying attention to their stack sizes. As soon as I did it, I realized that I am obligated to call a push (a situation I pride myself in avoiding).

He pushed, I called and rivered JJ with a K.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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Agree.. There's no reason not to think we're ahead here.

If we get called or raised were beat and we know it.. if we check, we're still in the dark and pretty much putting our faith on winning the pot with our 6-outer.

Must bet the flop.. Checking is a weak option.

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You can say we are most likely beat, and I will agree. But you cant say "know", b/c we dont. As I mentioned I was check raised all in by AQ 10 hands ago at a prior table, so lets not pretend it is impossible. If you give the villan a 5-10% chance of bluffing at this pot with a check raise, then you have to call if you bet 250. Its a call I will make, but not one I am crazy about making.

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i haven't done the math, but i'd be surprised if that's right? are you including the times villain has 77/A9, etc and you have 0-3 outs instead of 6?

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Giving the villan any pocket pair puts us at about 24% equity. We dont need much more to call getting 2.8-1 odds

remember we have a running flush and straight draw which helps

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

You say postflop aggression is generally respected, so I dont see why betting 250 isn't the perfect option. If they want to checkraise me all in, they earned the pot from me. It's quite likely I was beat in that case.

Checking MIGHT hit your hand which MIGHT earn you some more money, but I think playing for the immediate pot is a better option.

Kings

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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You say postflop aggression is generally respected, so I dont see why betting 250 isn't the perfect option. If they want to checkraise me all in, they earned the pot from me. It's quite likely I was beat in that case.

Checking MIGHT hit your hand which MIGHT earn you some more money, but I think playing for the immediate pot is a better option.

Kings

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This was after 7 or 8 hands, I am far from having a read on either villan. Neither had been invloved in a hand that I remember

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

300 is slightly over the edge IMO.

I think you can get away from 200-250.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

So just to clarify:

One of the villains had one of the roughly 650/1000 possible hands that had you beat,
Didn't believe you had a big overpair and c/r you all in.
And you got all their money in w/ 6 outs fairly early in the tournament with no read on their play.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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I banged my head on my desk as soon as I bet the flop

I bet 300, not really paying attention to their stack sizes. As soon as I did it, I realized that I am obligated to call a push (a situation I pride myself in avoiding).

He pushed, I called and rivered JJ with a K.

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Villian should have pushed his JJ overpair on the flop. He risked letting you take a freecard to hit one of your overcards. I think you fold your AK 100% of the time to a push on the flop.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I fold AK to any reasonable bet on that flop.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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Agree.. There's no reason not to think we're ahead here.

If we get called or raised were beat and we know it.. if we check, we're still in the dark and pretty much putting our faith on winning the pot with our 6-outer.

Must bet the flop.. Checking is a weak option.

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You can say we are most likely beat, and I will agree. But you cant say "know", b/c we dont. As I mentioned I was check raised all in by AQ 10 hands ago at a prior table, so lets not pretend it is impossible. If you give the villan a 5-10% chance of bluffing at this pot with a check raise, then you have to call if you bet 250. Its a call I will make, but not one I am crazy about making.

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i haven't done the math, but i'd be surprised if that's right? are you including the times villain has 77/A9, etc and you have 0-3 outs instead of 6?

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Giving the villan any pocket pair puts us at about 24% equity. We dont need much more to call getting 2.8-1 odds

remember we have a running flush and straight draw which helps

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when we're behind, i think we're a little worse off than "any pocket pair." that's only 3 AA's, 3 KK's, and 9 sets. "any pair" probably overstates likelihood of AA/KK (and accurately states the odds of sets), but i think that A7/A9/K9 are all fairly likely (if you knew they didn't suck, those become less likely). despite your earlier one hand, i think it's pretty rare to get c/r'ed with air in this spot, so i'd need 3:1 to call.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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So just to clarify:

One of the villains had one of the roughly 650/1000 possible hands that had you beat,
Didn't believe you had a big overpair and c/r you all in.
And you got all their money in w/ 6 outs fairly early in the tournament with no read on their play.

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Great game, aint it!

The point of the post is that I misplayed the hand. The only think I did correctly was call with my 6 outs.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

Agree.. I don't see where we "Can't get away from it.." if we're re-raised.

We surrender the the pot with a check because we can't get away from it if we bet? Nonsense. 200-250 is perfect amount. Who says you have to call another 500 with your 6 outs (best case scenario) ??

I'm stunned at the willingness of people on this forum to surrender their chips when they are behind (because the pot is big) in these MTT's.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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Villian should have pushed his JJ overpair on the flop. He risked letting you take a freecard to hit one of your overcards. I think you fold your AK 100% of the time to a push on the flop.

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Well... considering how often people make continuation bets with AK and AQ type hands, I prefer the JJ checkraise here. If you open push you only get called by better hands. Blech.

Kings

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I like a check here. I check because it is certain that one of them call with 33, 55, 66, etc. If they check to you on the turn though, you should fire out about 325 and see where they are at.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

pretty rare, like one in ten?

Even if we count AX hands where the X pairs, and no AA-KK, we are still at apx 23%

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I think JJ made somewhat of a poor play that failed to protect his hand. While I will say that he was able to get the best of it, I think it would be smarter for him to bet out the flop and take it down rather than drag you along.

He has the intention of checkraising with a small stack. He should know himself that you are obligated to call in this situation because he has a small stack. Therefore, he should avoid giving you price to beat him. (Who really thinks this far ahead...).

And through all of that, he was willing to give a free card!

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I think it's just as likely they are holding K-Q, K-10, Q-J, J-10, K-J, K-9, and other crap like that.

I certaintly wouldn't call 250 with a small pocket pair out of position. I think that's a terrible play, but maybe I'm giving these guys too much credit.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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I think it's just as likely they are holding K-Q, K-10, Q-J, J-10, K-J, K-9, and other crap like that.

I certaintly wouldn't call 250 with a small pocket pair out of position. I think that's a terrible play, but maybe I'm giving these guys too much credit.

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Yes you are. If you have ever played online, you would know that this happens on a regular basis in non-big MTTs.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I check here without even thinking about betting mostly because I would check AA here too trying to get the rest of someone's stack.

I'll make my decision on the turn as to how I want to play it.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

Is that how you win all that money? Getting aces all day!!! Some guys have all the luck

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

How much of a bet would you call on the turn if the turn is a total blank (like an offsuit 3)?