$10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

Hand from $10+$1 rebuy on stars 25k guaranteed. I am not Hero in this hand, another 2+2er who's play I respect is. He knows I am posting this. I disagreed with his turn check, but comments on all streets appreciated. My thoughts later, except to say that Villian had just moved to the table.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

UTG <font color="#A500AF">(Villian)</font> (t18550)
UTG+1 (t14478)
MP1 (t8850)
MP2 (t13335)
MP3 (t7875)
CO (t22022)
Button (t6090)
Hero (t21173)
BB (t13787)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG <font color="#A500AF">(Villian)</font> calls t200, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG <font color="#A500AF">(Villian)</font> calls t800, MP2 calls t800.

Flop: (t3200) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, Villian checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (t3200) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, Villian checks, MP2 checks.

River: (t3200) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t2500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villian raises to t17525</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls t15025.

Final Pot: t38250

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

I dont like the turn check at all. If he has a set here i go broke end of story.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kasey [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

I don't know if he checked the turn because he was afraid of a set or if he was trying to induce a bet. I think if he bets and neither player can beat top pair then they'll fold - very little upside to betting other than protecting his hand versus a straight/flush draw or 2 outer. But there's also very little upside to checking as nobody will bet at this point if they don't have at least top pair. So all things considered I think a bet of around 1600 is in order. If raised, serious thought could be given to folding as you've clearly represented top pair. Whether or not you should fold, of course, depends on how tricky the opponent is.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if he checked the turn because he was afraid of a set or if he was trying to induce a bet. I think if he bets and neither player can beat top pair then they'll fold - very little upside to betting other than protecting his hand versus a straight/flush draw or 2 outer. But there's also very little upside to checking as nobody will bet at this point if they don't have at least top pair. So all things considered I think a bet of around 1600 is in order. If raised, serious thought could be given to folding as you've clearly represented top pair. Whether or not you should fold, of course, depends on how tricky the opponent is.

[/ QUOTE ]

So given all of this, what do you put Villian on at the river?

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

KJ

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
KJ

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Would KJ check that flop? Anyway, is that what you put him on because I asked the question or what you really think he has? Do you seriously fold this river??

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

55, 22, and many hands we're ahead of. I don't see Kx checking the turn or Jx checking the flop. JJ is a possibility but I think he'd bet the turn (as I think he would 55 or 22). It's a tough question but I think we're ahead of his range here.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
55, 22, and many hands we're ahead of. I don't see Kx checking the turn or Jx checking the flop. JJ is a possibility but I think he'd bet the turn (as I think he would 55 or 22). It's a tough question but I think we're ahead of his range here.

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It's a very bizarre push, isn't it? Why would a guy with a hand like JT or QJ push the river? Why not just call, if he doesn't believe we have a King.

If he's not a complete idiot, he knows we can't call the river without some sort of King. Thus he must be trying to make better hands fold, OR he can beat a lone king.

Maybe he has a hand like 88, and thinks we might have a hand like TT and will fold to the push?

So really there are two possibilities to be considered.

1) He's a total idiot, and could be pushing a hand like K9s for value.
2) He's not a total idiot. If this is true, what do we beat? KQs? If he has the case King, why didn't he bet the turn?

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

It's a very bizarre hand. I would think JK, 22, 55 would start value betting by the turn, even on a fairly drawless board (except for the hearts.)

Other possible holding is a bad bluff with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

Because Hero's turn check is a little unusual, Villain might have difficulty putting him on trips kings. Without a good read, I'd be a very confused hero here, but I think trips kings is good most of the time here.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

It definitely feels like he's trying to push us off the hand. Since we checked the turn he has a hard time putting us on a K and now he's trying to represent a K even though we think he wouldn't have played the hand this way if he really did have a K. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] This is either part of the problem with checking the turn, or part of the brilliance of checking the turn - outcome specific of course!

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

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It definitely feels like he's trying to push us off the hand.

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So your hand range is "he's bluffing"?

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

Like I said, there's some chance he'd doing this with a boat. I agree with you completely in that he's either making a move or a great player pretending to make a move with a big hand. I give more possibility to the former therefore I would call but I'm not 100% confident in that decision. I'm just confident enough to make it knowing it's correct long-term.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Like I said, there's some chance he'd doing this with a boat. I agree with you completely in that he's either making a move or a great player pretending to make a move with a big hand. I give more possibility to the former therefore I would call but I'm not 100% confident in that decision. I'm just confident enough to make it knowing it's correct long-term.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so then his range is:

A) A boat
B) A total bluff (i.e. nothing at all hand like T9s, or maybe a hand like 88)

But that's all we beat. Pure bluffs. So should we still call against an unknown? I rarely think about hands this deeply but I thought about this one and this is the same range I came up with.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

I'd have to put new guy on KJ

he's new to the table.. whenever I get moved I make it a point to play it cool. you know nothing about the other players.

with that in mind I wouldn't trust anything he did. does he slowplay? who knows. does he push people around? who knows.. he himself called a pf raise not knowing the table, so I'd put him on decent cards.

then it looks like he hit his cards hard.. why risk your tournament life with so little information

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
then it looks like he hit his cards hard.. why risk your tournament life with so little information

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Because you have trips top kicker? Level 1 thinking I know, but Hero's hand is very strong which is why this is so tough.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

There are only 9 possible hand combinations of reasonable full houses (meaning I'm leaving off KJ, K5, and K2). There are more than 9 possible hands that we can beat (bluffs). So I think there is a greater than 50% liklihood that we are ahead. Therefore, I call.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

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I'd have to put new guy on KJ

he's new to the table.. whenever I get moved I make it a point to play it cool. you know nothing about the other players.

with that in mind I wouldn't trust anything he did. does he slowplay? who knows. does he push people around? who knows.. he himself called a pf raise not knowing the table, so I'd put him on decent cards.

then it looks like he hit his cards hard.. why risk your tournament life with so little information

[/ QUOTE ]
Even adding KJ to the other possible full house combinations, there are still only 12 hands we're behind and more than 12 we're ahead of.

And this is not Level 1 thinking, it's beyond. If I were him, I would not put us on a K because we checked the flop. Nor would I put us on a full house. Pushing the river will only be called by K with a good kicker, or a full house. It would be reasonable for him to put us on a hand like TT or 99 in which case pushing the flop on a bluff should win the pot.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

the fact he is new to the table changes everything, it comes down to winning based simply on good cards, you know nothing about eachother

either he's an idiot, or he really has the cards.. up to you to take that risk

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
the fact he is new to the table changes everything, it comes down to winning based simply on good cards, you know nothing about eachother

either he's an idiot, or he really has the cards.. up to you to take that risk

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Yes but also realize he is just afraid of Hero as we are afraid of him, and could be trying to take advantage.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

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Yes but also realize he is just afraid of Hero as we are afraid of him, and could be trying to take advantage.

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if Hero is afraid of me, then send out a small bet and take the pot

if Villain is really trying to take advantage, then he must have the cards. what makes more sense:
Hero knows nothing about me, so he just may take my all-in bet and double me up!
or
Hero keeps checking every time. since I know nothing about him, I can only assume he has nothing. I guess I'll go all in and bluff a measly 3k pot with bad cards.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

Don't forget this is a rebuy tournament. And even though we're pass the rebuy period they tend to draw more aggressive players who play that way the entire tournament.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget this is a rebuy tournament. And even though we're pass the rebuy period they tend to draw more aggressive players who play that way the entire tournament.

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This is the biggest reason for a call IMO. But when thinking hard about this it really is a tough spot, just because the hand was played in such a bizarre way.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

I have a very hard time giving him credit for a better hand on the river here. Your hand is well disguised, and he has no reason to expect a payoff with a monster. It's overwhelmingly likely that he's full of it. Alternatively, he could have a hand like KTs and didn't want to bet the first K. Now he's hoping someone looks him up. I just don't see a set or KJ waiting until the river to pipe up. Also, there is only one K left in the deck. I nearly insta-call on the river.

I also love the turn check. Betting achieves little. It will be hard to get action from a worse hand. Yes you're risking a free turn and a bad river, but I think a lot of times someone stabs at the turn, or pays off with a weak made hand on a brick river.

Kings

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

I also love the turn check. Betting achieves little. It will be hard to get action from a worse hand. Yes you're risking a free turn and a bad river, but I think a lot of times someone stabs at the turn, or pays off with a weak made hand on a brick river.

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Most weak made hands would just call the river, because they know a push would only be called by a strong king or boat, right?

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

I just noticed I messed up my last post a little.. Hero raised on the river, and was reraised all in. I think that would support my thoughts even more, though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

there is a chance he is playing really aggressive... but I guess my whole point is, wait until you get more information on the guy. if he's the aggressive type you will find that out very soon. perhaps even a river check would have been correct in this scenario.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

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perhaps even a river check would have been correct in this scenario.

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With the flop and turn checking around, and the King unlikely to have improved anyone given our hand, it's too likely the river would check around too.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

I would reraise him all-in.
He's trying to steal.

Also I would have bet 5xBB after the flop and found out what he had then.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

Great first post.

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I would reraise him all-in.

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He pushed.

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He's trying to steal.

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How do can you be so sure?

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Also I would have bet 5xBB after the flop and found out what he had then.

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Say he calls. What does he have?

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

I'm still relatively new to MTTs but I'll put my two cents worth in hoping that I'll get my thinking straightened out.

I think hero could have avoided alot of this if he made a continuation bet but since he didn't...
I hate the turn check because now you don't know if you confused villain (highly possible)with the check or is he slowplaying the set.
On the river does he push if he has the boat? Or does he milk it for a bet he knows has to be called.Since it looks like he doesn't want the call I call even though if he put me on AK(likely) he may make this move with the nuts.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

The range of hands I would put villian on are

AK-TKs
AK-JK,
22
55
JJ

Of these, the three pairs, JK, and JKs beat AK. I would hesitate to say that JK is a real possibility because the flop was checked, despite having top pair. The turn really indicates to me that he doesn't have JK as he would likely bet the two pair looking for action from an overpair or a made king.

I do think its possible that this guy is betting all-in on a weaker king, very likely something along the lines of KQ or KT, as I think his flop and turn play make the most sense. He could potentially slowplay 22 or 55. This is a 10 dollar rebuy tournament, not a 10k buyin main event. I can definitely see villain pushing it in. (But not really with junk like TT or 99 at this point.)

So using pokerstove...

I've done the first range, and found that hero's equity is approximately 32%. Pot odds are giving around only 1.5 to 1, when he really needs about 2 to 1 to call. However, let's suggest I step it back and eliminate the KJ hands because it seems very unlikely that villain would check both streets - it really doesn't make much difference, giving our hero only 38% equity. However, this is closer to what we need to call. (We need 40% equity to justify calling 1.5 to 1).

Therefore, I would probably fold. However, I might just call because "Oh well WHAT THE HELL its close anyways."

That being said, I can't really say that the hand was played correctly. I would probably bet out the flop AND the turn. If I'm check-raised or raised, it will be easy to get away on the flop. On the turn, I would have to consider the size of the raise, but it would be MUCH easier to get away from than on the river.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

You're not accounting for any possibility of a pure bluff and there is certainly some liklihood of that.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

Yes I understand that, but I'd put it at the very minimum, if even that (the Harrington 10%). However, I'd lean on the side of conservative because of the fact that I've already *assumed* that this guy would play a hand like KTs or KQo in this manner. If I really want to be tight and add the 10% bluff to it, I might have to say that I don't have a real read on him, so I might have to assume he's a bit tighter than to play KQo or KTs UTG limp. I might even say he won't play AK because he wouldn't limp-call with it, and therefore I'd skew the statistics even more towards folding (in fact it might be more correct to do that).

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

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Great first post.

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I would reraise him all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

He pushed.

Yes but if you reraise with all your chips it looks more assertive and you still get your chips back.

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He's trying to steal.

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How do can you be so sure?

Gut feeling. And I guess trying to steal is the wrong word. He's trying to steal, but he still has a decent hand. He's a got a medium to top hand, and he's looking to win without a fight. He's hoping you don't call and he takes the pot, but he's also thinking he has a pretty good chance of winning (because the Ks were slowplayed) with his hand. He may have QQ or AJ.

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Also I would have bet 5xBB after the flop and found out what he had then.

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Say he calls. What does he have?

[/ QUOTE ]
That means he had something decent right after the flop. If he called then it probably means he had the AJ. If he had the QQ he would have raised thinking he had top pair. If he only called, then you would be in luck, because you'd see the K on the turn and be ready to fight some more knowing you probably had the best hand. Instead of just guessing on what he has at the river.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

He could also have a monster, like 22 55 or JJ. Calls are scary. AJ would likely not call in this situation. Neither would QQ. They should both raise, at least to find out where they are. A call indicates something along the lines of a set or a draw. Your king helps you not against any of these hands.

I think the most likeliest calling hands that are weaker are JT-JQ(s), a flush draw, or a sad hand like A5 or even A2. Anything else that calls on the flop is dangerous.

AND BESIDES, this is a sidenote to the real hand!

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

He should raise, yes, but I don't understand why everyone usually thinks that their villian is the perfect poker player. Also people tend to play tighter to their disadvantage in MTT.

Still though, the bet earlier in the hand would make you much more aware of your position with AK.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

I certainly agree pip. The only reason I would say that this villain here raises is because of the incredible agressiveness shown on the river. I see him to be agressive, not as passive as perhaps if he had just called on the river in our given post. (I'm using what very limited information we have).

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

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He should raise, yes, but I don't understand why everyone usually thinks that their villian is the perfect poker player. Also people tend to play tighter to their disadvantage in MTT.

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If this is true it makes it even MORE likely we should fold the river!

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He should raise, yes, but I don't understand why everyone usually thinks that their villian is the perfect poker player. Also people tend to play tighter to their disadvantage in MTT.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true it makes it even MORE likely we should fold the river!

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true but he is using the [fact that people play tighter] to take advantage of the hero... not the other way around like the hero should have done earlier in the hand!

But if I'm wrong go ahead and reveal!

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

The chance that the villain is attempting to steal a very mediocre sized pot with this bet is not very high.

He is unlikely to be trying to take advantage of the tightness of another player on the river. If he was, he would have done it much much earlier.

Re: $10+$1 Rebuy AK hand
 

The problem with checking the flop and turn is that you have not defined your hand.

The guy could literally have anything. He may have interpreted your checking as weakness, as 2 scared Tens or Nines that will fold to a raise with 2 Kings on the board. He could make that bet on a scare board with a busted flush draw. Or he could have the nuts.

With so little information and only 12 possible hands ahead of you (3 ways to make 3 sets + 3 ways to make KJ -- discounting K5 and K2), there is no way I fold.