55 UTG, FT on UB
 

Final Table. Couple of players had shown down with some weak crap, but no definitive reads on anyone.

Hand #7093846-23 at Fri12amB-Final (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
- Powered by UltimateBet - Started at 15/Jul/05 03:51:34 07/15/05 03:51:34 AM
- herbud is at seat 0 with 121965.
- Veggie203 is at seat 1 with 34000.
- Dasburns is at seat 2 with 74470.
- mike2470 is at seat 4 with 108655.
- yabastid is at seat 6 with 34900
- jmcfg8 is at seat 7 with 41200.
- cdnstriker is at seat 8 with 78310.
- The button is at seat 0.
- herbud posts ante (400).
- Veggie203 posts ante (400).
- Dasburns posts ante (400).
- mike2470 posts ante (400).
- yabastid posts ante (400).
- jmcfg8 posts ante (400).
- cdnstriker posts ante (400).
- The button is moved to seat 1.
- Dasburns posts the small blind of 2000.
- mike2470 posts the big blind of 4000.
- herbud, at seat 0, is in this hand.
- Veggie203, at seat 1, is in this hand.
- Dasburns, at seat 2, is in this hand.
- mike2470, at seat 4, is in this hand.
- yabastid, at seat 6, is in this hand.
- jmcfg8, at seat 7, is in this hand.
- cdnstriker, at seat 8, is in this hand.

- yabastid is dealt: 5d, 5c

Push or fold?

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

Blah.

WIth the antes it gives you an M of ~4.

I really don't like pushing here, but after the blinds you will have 7BB's which still retains some FE.

Was the table aggro or passive?

I lean towards a fold given that if you are called you are often dominated.

But there is already 8,800 in the pot.

I think its close and either decision is not a big mistake.

Just saw the BB is a bigstack, that leans me towards pushing, because his presence *may* deter hands like mid pairs from getting involved, and he likely to call you without a pair, which all the dead chips in the middle make it well worth the race.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

woodguy,

Thanks for the reply. Yeah, exactly, "Blah." Table had just started to get a bit active. Don't think I had much of an image either. Stole maybe once or twice but nothing blatantly obvious.

yabastid

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

[ QUOTE ]
Blah.

WIth the antes it gives you an M of ~4.
I really don't like pushing here, but after the blinds you will have 7BB's which still retains some FE.

Was the table aggro or passive?

I lean towards a fold given that if you are called you are often dominated.

But there is already 8,800 in the pot.

I think its close and either decision is not a big mistake.

Just saw the BB is a bigstack, that leans me towards pushing, because his presence *may* deter hands like mid pairs from getting involved, and he likely to call you without a pair, which all the dead chips in the middle make it well worth the race.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

excuse my idiotness, but what does that mean?

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

No need to call yourself an idiot. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Harrington's second book describes the your stack in terms of M, with M being the size of the pot, including antes.

He breaks down strategy for different amouts of M, (1-5,5-10,10-20,20+ I think)

Not much different than the strategy promoted in the forum, but it formalizes it somewhat.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

[ QUOTE ]
and he likely to call you without a pair, which all the dead chips in the middle make it well worth the race.


[/ QUOTE ]

ewww.... i don't like that logic. assume for starters that he's folding A5s - i think that's pretty reasonable to assume. now you say that b/c he's a big stack he's likely to call with more KQ/AT type hands, but that's very bad, not good. we'd much rather just pick up the blinds and antes than have him call and play a flip. the fact that there's a lot of money out there makes picking up dead money more appealing compared to flipping, not less.

unless he's quite loose, he's also folding 44. and the fact that he's a big stack will make him more willing to call 66 or 77, which is obviously a disaster for hero.

i'd fold this.

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

[ QUOTE ]
he's a big stack he's likely to call with more KQ/AT type hands, but that's very bad, not good. we'd much rather just pick up the blinds and antes than have him call and play a flip. the fact that there's a lot of money out there makes picking up dead money more appealing compared to flipping, not less.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think we are saying *close* to the same thing.

Let me try to be more clear.

The big stack being the BB will have some deterrant effect on the other players getting involved with hands that dominate us (small pp's)

Since there is a lot of dead $$$ the BB being willing to call with a non-pair is not a bad thing.

OI course we don't mind just picking up the blinds.

Another *helping factor* in this case the BB being a big stack help us get HU, he doesn't hurt us, even if he calls with overcards.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

Fold.

Sure you have less than 10BB, but here you have absolutely no FE, and get called by either hands that dominate you or coinflip, or both overcards and overpairss call.

You have lots of room to maneuver here still. Your stack dwindles over the next 2 hands, sure, but you should have about 5 hands after this that I think you can wait for something better.

Just in my head, I see the push as about a 35/65 situation in terms of doubling up. I fold and hope to pick something better up soon.

Brad

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

I'm a little unclear on the action but it looks like it's folded out to you two from the button?

I think it's a push. Your M is 4, you have a pair, and you're first in. Don't overthink it too much.

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

Realistically the only thing we are worried about are over-pairs. If an opponent has one, he might as well call a taxi. However, there is a 9 in 17 chance that one player at a table has a pocket pair. I think the mathematics here are simply squaring 9/17. If this is correct roughly 28% of the time someone else will also have a pocket pair. After this I'm afraid I do not know how to complete the calculation to figure out the pot odds w/ two over cards or higher and lower pocket pairs so any suggestions would be appreciated. However if its me, I push b/c my gut tells me to and I'll take at least 3 out 4 times being in a race w/ all that dead money out there. worst comes to worse...I do have a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the set and being in real contention to win. More advice would really be appreciated though.

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

I hate this hand. To me it's like having 88 or 99 UTG when you have 12-15 BB's (Do you fold, make a raise 3-5BB's, or push?)- I still don't have a default play, but I lean towards folding.
I also think that this 55 hand is a definite fold. Is this thinking in both situations too weak tight?

yabastid

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

Oops, I misread. It's UTG. Anyway...
I think that makes a push even more imperative. You're about to lose a large chunk of your stack through the blinds. Your folding equity is higher now and you have a pair. That's good enough.

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

NO SITUATION IN POKER SHOULD HAVE A DEFAULT PLAY, well may be one...thats calling and an all-in when you have the nuts. Every situation should be taken with situation of the tournament...lets say your table is loose, pushing w/ 88 may not be your best idea if you know two people will call you, however if blinds are high and the table is tight, then push and try to take the blinds. However, in this situation w/ everyone afraid of the big stack calling and causing all the other players to lose their chips. If you call you're probably 50/50 if you look at what little math I could do for you.

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

I push this. With an M under 5 you have to go, and you still do have FE as a lot of players don't adjust to the antes and will be afraid of your 8 to 9 BB raise (and if BB calls and loses he has roughly the same number of chips as you, this isn't an autocall situation for him).

Fold: 34500
Push, no call: 43300
Push, BB call and win (if non-BB player calls you'll be slightly better off chip wise): 74200
Push, lose: 0.

I think most often you will win the pot w/ no call. I think if you get called, more often than not it will be with high cards and you will be a slight favorite. I'd expect something like:

no call: 60%
call where you are slight favorite: 25% (so you'll win about 13.5% of the time in this situation and lose 11.5%)
call where you are dominated: 15% (so you'll win about 3% of the time in this situation and lose 12%)

So in my book EV(34500) < .6*EV(43300) + (.135+.03)*EV(74200).

Chip values aren't linear, but if they were the LHS is 34500 while the RHS is 38223. So is a certain amount worth passing up an expected amount 10% more? Especially considering you are about to hit the BB and lose another 4400 in chips on the next hand?

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

I would lean to folding here and waiting for a better spot.
sometimes The final table payout might change my opinion on the best play.

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

I don't understand the people saying wait for something better. Isn't 55 in the top 10% of possible hands for this situation? You only have 5-7 hands before eating 2 blinds and being way out of contention, so isn't it against the odds that you'll get a better hand?

Also, you need to take into account apyout structure. If 3rd-7th is fairly flat and then it jumps for 1st, I think that adds to the argument in favor of pushing now.

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

While 5s are nice hands to have but top 10% is pushing it. I'd say that they are top 15% but I digress. Here I would say push it b/c he is short stacked but normally I play 5s with a lot more care. I usually just call may be raise if I'm in late position or blinds with few limpers in front of me. Then if I flop a set I'll usually bet. Otherwise I will concede the pot to any decent bet. May be this is wrong but it usually works w/ pairs 7 and under.

Re: 55 UTG, FT on UB
 

Unless the blinds are just about to go up for your turn (you know have ~9BBs), I'm laying this down. The range of potentially callers is too big and you'll still have some play in LP after the blinds pass.