AQs flush draw from the SB
 

Reads :

Button is loose passive PF but gets a little aggressive post flop if he hits something. Likes to see a lot of flops and frequently shows down with top pair/weak kicker.

MP2 is also very loose, with a VP$IP of 80%. His post flop play is poor, and has shown many times he is willing to show down with less then top pair.

MP3 is another loose player, but very passive. Comes along for the ride most of the time. Cold calls a lot, hardly ever raises and plays a lot of hands. Only initiates betting with fairly strong hands post flop and calls down often with top pair/good kicker.


The flop is standard, very strong draw and 2 overcards, so I bet it.

The turn though, is where I am not sure of. Looking at it now, I should have lead the turn. I have a draw to the nut flush and a draw to a 4 card straight, though it's a little weak due to being beat by any 6. I should have bet this turn and after failing that, I think I should have raised it when it came to me for one bet.

The river I played horribly. I really have no excuse why I hit top pair and checked instead of betting. Should I have then raised when it got back to me? Would attempting a check/raise on the river here be better then just betting out? Button and MP3 both show that they have a good chance at betting at this river if I check, giving me the chance to raise.

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Edit : One of my points to this post also is that I think I may be playing my strong draws a little too weak. I almost always bet the flop on a strong draw, but if the turn doesn't deliver, I slow down to a crawl. I think I am missing bets this way....

Re: AQs from the SB
 

Your own analysis (after the fact) is good. I mean, I think we all play hands in the heat of a game that we look back on and regret.

That said, the turn check doesn't bother me that much if you had C/Red. It was probably a questionable check since you have no evidence that you'll get bet behind, but given that you did check and it was bet, I think not raising is the biggest mistake in the hand -- you really lost a chance to protect your strong draw with that.

And I agree -- you should have absolutely bet the river.

Re: AQs from the SB
 

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you really lost a chance to protect your strong draw with that.

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uh. no. why do we want to "protect" a draw?

Re: AQs from the SB
 

[ QUOTE ]
That said, the turn check doesn't bother me that much if you had C/Red. It was probably a questionable check since you have no evidence that you'll get bet behind, but given that you did check and it was bet, I think not raising is the biggest mistake in the hand -- you really lost a chance to protect your strong draw with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

A check-raise is the last thing you want to do here. You're facing the field with two cold and "protecting" a hand that is just ace-high at the moment.

I don't think your inside straight draw is worth much -- you've got the sucker end of a one-card straight, plus you're splitting with any other ace even if no one has a 6. I'd assume you're basically playing for flush value alone and check-call like OP did -- not enough people in the hand to bet the turn for value even if they call call.

[ QUOTE ]
And I agree -- you should have absolutely bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you fold to a raise?

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

an argument could be made for betting the turn, but i think checking and calling is ok too. if they appear to be as passive as you say (unless they connect with the flop) then i'd be more inclined to bet with this many outs.

i'd bet the river for sure.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd bet the river for sure.

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Can you fold to a raise?

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I'm genuinely curious about this. When I bet this river I generally pay off a raise, but I don't think I've ever won when doing so.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd bet the river for sure.

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Can you fold to a raise?

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I'm genuinely curious about this. When I bet this river I generally pay off a raise, but I don't think I've ever won when doing so.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i bet this river here and a VERY passive player raised i would think he'd have 2 pair or better &gt;90% of the time. but getting 1:15 or more on the call, would it be 94%?

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

If I had bet the river and gotten raised, I can say with certainty that I would have called it. I would have an idea that I may be beat, but theres no way at that point that I could drop this hand.

So for the most part, slowing down and check/calling the turn as I did is ok here?

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

I would not fold to a raise based on

1. The chance of it being re-raised behind you is very slim.
2. I think your AQ will hold up a quite a few more times than the 15:1 odds you are getting.

edit: forgot to mention that I like the turn call, but as most say (including yourself) you should have bet the river.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

I like a turn bet. We have over 15 outs, and noone has shown any strength so far except us.

You should not be in the habit of betting the turn with a flush draw, as our equity goes down, but with this flop, I think we have 6 outs to over cards as well. Also maybe an out or two for a 5.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

Good reads.

Bet the river.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

Thank you all for your input and reads on the situation. I really have no idea what was in my head when I checked the river Q for top pair.

Should I post the results, or do you guys think you can take shots at what the Button and MP3 are holding before I do? I had a good idea of what the Button was holding, MP3 I was unsure of throughout the hand.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

You do a good job describing where you went wrong. You should definitely bet the turn. You have maybe 13.5 outs - 9 to nut flush, 1.5 to the straight (discounted by any 6s out there) - and ~3 for the overcards. Your equity is around 27-28% and you're facing 3 calling stations. That is a huge edge, and you need to push it.

Given your passiveness on the turn, playing for a check-raise on the river is also a bad move if you make your hand because you expect the button to bet, and, if he does, you should call looking for overcalls. Raising the button costs you at least one bet by forcing out callers you beat, maybe more if he reraises.

Why do you say that MP3 has a good chance of betting the river? He's shown no aggresion before and is a known calling station. Given that he did bet the river, you should raise, trapping the button for extra bets.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

With a hand that strong, rounding down you have about 15 outs. 9 outs for the flush, 3 for the gutshot wheel draw, and roughly 3 for your overcards. So you have about 33% pot equity here. Since you have good reads determining that the hangers-on are pretty loose, I think you can be sure at least 2 will call you to the river, and often times enough, all 3 will call, netting you a nice profit.

On the river, you have to lead this river and call a raise. What hands are you behind here that they're likely to have? If they have Q4 or Q2, the only likely hands due to their betting patterns, I'd pay them off. Bet for value here. If you think that by checking you can induce a weaker hand to bet here, I'd go for a check-raise. You have a very strong hand and it's not very likely you're beat.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

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Your equity is around 27-28% and you're facing 3 calling stations. That is a huge edge, and you need to push it.

[/ QUOTE ]

disregarding the number outs that might be dirty...assuming our equity is 27-28%. With 3 opponents, our current expected average equity would be 25%, no? I wouldn't call it a huge edge...and if any of them fold any existing edge evaporates - again, not huge.

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

I don't really think a turn bet is as necessary as most people are making it out to be. That gutshot draw doesn't strengthen your hand all that much. If I'm betting here it's becasue I think there's a reasonable chance I have the best hand.

Rob

Re: AQs flush draw from the SB
 

Results below, don't read if you haven't commented on the hand and want to.











*RESULTS*

I tried to post this and analyze as best as I could without being result oriented. The outcome of this hand surprised me honestly, and is definitely not typical.

Button showed down J6o, which is no big surprise to me, he has been doing that all night. I put him on Jx, even as high as J 10.

MP3 however was a surprise. I had him on anywhere from AK to AJ with maybe KQ, KJ and J 10 thrown in for good measure until the river. When he bet the river my read really put him on having a Q, and since he bet and usually is very passive I thought he may even have me beat there with QJ. He showed down AA. Given the way this hand played out, it surprised me. Even as passive as he was, I did not even give a thought to him being able to play an overpair in the manner this hand was played.