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-   -   Flop Decision: 65s (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=293185)

Vote4Pedro 07-15-2005 01:35 AM

Flop Decision: 65s
 
Edit: UTGs first orbit and Button is very donkish

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button calls, Hero...

Whats my line? Call
or 3bet?

Eeegah 07-15-2005 01:43 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
(I'm addicted to grunching [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

What's a 3-bet going to do for you here? No one's folding and it's not for value. I just call and await to be schooled by more experienced 2+2ers [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mmmmmbrother 07-15-2005 01:48 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
im not very good at 6max but i would call and checkraise on a five, six, or four, but bet on a spade.

benkath1 07-15-2005 01:50 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Call. You're building a nice pot for when your str8 comes in.

Vote4Pedro 07-15-2005 02:04 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Considering that I "might" have the best hand and I have &gt;10 outs to improve(2-5's, 3-6's, 4-4's, as well as a backdoor flush draw), I think theres value in a 3bet.

ClaytonN 07-15-2005 02:25 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
This is a good hand discussion people.

Please get involved in hands more like this and less of "Did I play this AA correctly?"

SoftcoreRevolt 07-15-2005 02:37 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
I think you are overvaluing your 6s a bit much, especially with a donkish Button. Maybe subtract 1 out from it for the times he'll make a straight when you make two pair. Yeah its unlikely in 6 max with 3 people in, but you need to discount an out or so here with such draws (low back door flush, two pair which makes 4 to a straight, etc.)

I'm torn on if I 3 bet here or not. UTG being an unknown makes this more difficult, since we don't know if he has a tendency to overplay his overcards short handed. I'm almost tempted to donk bet him on a safe turn or a spade turn, and then do the same if we hit our draw on the river if he raises the turn.

arsixsixwy 07-15-2005 02:37 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Well, let's go through it. 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush draw. 4 outs for the fours in the deck, but I like to discount that by an out, on the chance that you'll have to split the pot with another six, so we'll say 3. Spiking one of the 2 remaining fives will probably be good enough. Spiking one of the 3 remaining sixes will sometimes be good enough, but you still have to worry about a four, so let's say 2 outs for the sixes. (I know, I'm not being very generous.)

1.5 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 8.5

With 8.5 outs, you're almost exactly 2:1 to make a winning hand by the river. The problem is that several of the hands you make are vulnerable to redraws, so I don't think you win 33% of the time here -- I think it's closer to 28% or 29%. As such, I don't think you have the equity to raise.

Yes, I'm assuming you're behind, which is not necessarily the case, but with two other people in the hand, your pair of fives is relatively easy to draw out on, so I think it's a reasonable assumption that a good amount of the time, you'll need to improve to win.

shadow29 07-15-2005 02:42 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Tell me why a flop bet is good, microers.

arsixsixwy 07-15-2005 02:45 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Betting immediately into the preflop raiser with a vulnerable hand, expecting the PFR to raise, you're able to face the field with calling two cold. This will often get rid of those pesky overcards.

Not to mention, in micro-limits, your fives might very well be good and a bet is for value. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Vote4Pedro 07-15-2005 03:02 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
[ QUOTE ]
Betting immediately into the preflop raiser with a vulnerable hand, expecting the PFR to rais, you're able to face the field with calling two cold. This will often get rid of those pesky overcards.

Not to mention, in micro-limits, your fives might very well be good and a bet is for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

aK13 07-15-2005 03:13 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
I like to 3bet the flop. Very likely UTG is raising here with overs, and button is doing what he usually does. I believe you have enough value to raise here, as you are very likely to be ahead. Even if you are behind a big PP, you have at least 6 outs, plus some 2pair outs which are likely to be good still.

Kumubou 07-15-2005 03:32 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Except that the 'field' is just one donk, who will donk along like a good donk will.

Am I the only one who has a measure of respect to UTG raises, even in 6-max? I figure I'm behind a large PP more often than not (even though not obscenely so). However, you have a few outs to improve and lots more to get a strong draw.

2 5s to trips
3 6s to two-pair (which introduces straight redraws)
4 4s to a straight

There are also cards that improve our hand:

10 spades to a spade draw
4 8s to a one-card OESD
(the 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gives you 13 more outs!)

Weight them all blah blah blah but you probably have 8-9 outs total.

This bet is for one reason: value. Since you have El Donk along for the ride, 3-bet and see if UTG takes a dump in his pants.

I reevaluate on the turn depending on what drops (paint, a spade, the straight, an anvil, etc.) If there is anything I can do to get UTG out of this hand then by Gord I would be doing it.

-K

toddw8 07-15-2005 04:00 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Is this a standard call PF at 6max? Seems awfully loose to me, but no one else has mentioned it.

aK13 07-15-2005 04:05 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a standard call PF at 6max? Seems awfully loose to me, but no one else has mentioned it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very standard, period. Do some math [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I sometimes defend with it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Vote4Pedro 07-15-2005 10:49 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
PF is so standard its not even worth mentioning. What do you think about the play on the flop?

Vote4Pedro 07-15-2005 02:41 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
bump...

CanadianAmy 07-15-2005 03:37 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
I am thinking call. This is one of those hands that will either greatly improve on the Turn or look a lot worse. I also think that if you hold off until the turn there is a chance that the button will fold. I am inclined to the think that UTG is going to showdown at this point.

BTW I put you on 9.5 outs right now....4 4's, 2 5's, 1.5 BDF, 2 6's

If I hit the turn I check raise.

(As a side note, if I was in late position with this I would try and raise to get a free card on the turn.)

Amy

Nfinity 07-16-2005 01:36 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
I wouldn't 3-bet.

Here's Why: You are correct in assuming that you have an edge here. But it is very slim.First, you are against an unknown, and this sort of aggression is particularly uncommon in you average 1/2 player. If later on you find out he's a TAG or LAG, so be it, but in these situations it's best to err on the side of caution. Secondly, all your draws are very weak, and subject to redraws. If you pair your 5's you should be alright, but a 4 gives both opponents a three out redraw to the split(the 6's) and the 6's give them 4(the 4's) Not to mention the fact that you may make your 2 pair and it gives someone a straight. In this case I would just call and see what develops.

On the Turn, If I improve my hand I will likely bet again. If a spade falls I'm Check/ Calling. Otherwise I'm probably folding the Turn UI.

Vote4Pedro 07-16-2005 02:47 PM

Turn Action
 
So I ended up calling...

After I discussed the hand with a few people, I was kinda torn between calling and 3betting, but I think calling is the best choice w/o a solid read on UTG.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero...Donk or C/R and why?

silkyslim 07-16-2005 02:52 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Why did you bet the flop????

Vote4Pedro 07-16-2005 02:59 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
[ QUOTE ]
Betting immediately into the preflop raiser with a vulnerable hand, expecting the PFR to raise, you're able to face the field with calling two cold. This will often get rid of those pesky overcards.

Not to mention, in micro-limits, your fives might very well be good and a bet is for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jaran 07-16-2005 03:48 PM

Re: Turn Action
 
I like a donkbet hoping to 3bet. My reason is because when I see this line taken by the villian, my first reaction is to raise the "idiot". I like to take advantage of that feeling in others [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

-Jaran

aK13 07-16-2005 03:53 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Donk it.

The reason why we bet the flop is because we are putting villain on overs. If this is the case, he is very likely to check the turn to take a free card, and button, being a LP, is likely to check it right behind. Thus, we should bet here to avoid missing value. Also, if he has a high PP, he might raise, allowing us to 3bet, whereas a check/raise looks more like a monster than a donkbet, losing us an extra BB.

IIAce 07-16-2005 03:57 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Why are you counting his chances to win the hand by the RIVER? If you do that, you have to account for the bets he will have to pay on the turn...right? I'd just count my outs and just see my odds to make the hand by the turn and bet/call based on that. I am just starting to understand this part though so please correct me if I'm wrong.

Tonsafun 07-16-2005 09:46 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
I don't think the three bet does anything for you. It wouldn't be for value, and you can't really get rid of anybody. I call.

C/R any turn that helps: 5,6,4, spade.

Since you're obviously not folding the flop, what's your plan if the turn completely bricks? That's what I'm curious about.

Vote4Pedro 07-16-2005 10:46 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Go ahead and read the other responses regarding the pros/cons of 3betting, I think you'll be suprised by some of the posts. As for a brick on the turn, the pot will be laying me between 7 and 8:1 depending on the buttons action (He's an idiot,so I expect him to call), so I check/call and cross my fingers for a nice river.

Nfinity 07-16-2005 11:40 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
First off, I still like a Turn bet if we improve. It's just the sort of donkish move that will give us good results. When we CR we:

A: Risk the possibility of it getting checked through.(Remember, we did say that it was possible we had the best hand if UTG was betting UI overs)
B: Alert the table to the strength of our hand, and with 4 to a flush and/ or a paired board, they will likely slow down or fold altogether.
C: Betting out may get more value out of the hand. If UTG decides to raise us again we may be able to trap everyone for 3 bets, or possibly get the Turn capped. Button has already shown his willingness to cold-call raises, and if he doesn't then we truly haven't lost that much given our ability to 3-bet. I think the the Loss/Reward ratio is in favor of betting out.

Your right about the Turn, I don't know what I was thinking. Your getting good odds and your situation is greatly improved because you are no longer subject to redraws.

Just to round this little discussion out, after your check-call on the Turn, If the River bricks, (not many left for the deck to throw) whats your plan for the River when your being offered 11-1?

Crying Call? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

(kind of see now why Entity was in favor of Open Folding [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Vote4Pedro 07-16-2005 11:53 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
If the turn and river were both bricks, and UTG comes out swining again, I dont see how I could be good 1 in 11 times, therefore I muck.

BTW, when did Entity recommend open folding, am I missing something?

Nfinity 07-16-2005 11:56 PM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
[ QUOTE ]
If the turn and river were both bricks, and UTG comes out swining again, I dont see how I could be good 1 in 11 times, therefore I muck.

BTW, when did Entity recommend open folding, am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong hand sorry. There was another hand with a preflop aggressor and hero flopped mid pair, it all runs together man. LOL

All work and no Play makes Nfinity a dull boy
All work and no Play makes Nfinity a dull boy
All work and no Play...

baronzeus 07-17-2005 12:00 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
[ QUOTE ]
Edit: UTGs first orbit and Button is very donkish

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button calls, Hero...

Whats my line? Call
or 3bet?

[/ QUOTE ]


This is a bad board to bet on. He's gonna raise, and you only wanna pay 1 bet to see the turn here. You can raise the turn if you want.


There's such a good chacne that you're already beat that you're probably drawing to something like 9 outs here.

shadow29 07-17-2005 12:06 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is a bad board to bet on.

[/ QUOTE ]

This board is exactly the one on which I want to bet.

Nfinity 07-17-2005 12:08 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a bad board to bet on.

[/ QUOTE ]

This board is exactly the one on which I want to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. We have to find some way to protect our hand, and if it doesn't pan out the way we want it to, then at least we are padding the pot for our draw.

Shillx 07-17-2005 12:13 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
This is a bad board to bet on.

Well yeah maybe but not always. If the villian is dumb enough to raise AK on this flop then betting out is badass. He knocks out the button and leaves himself drawing HU to just 6 outs. If he would never raise the flop with AK or QJ or whatever then it makes no sense to bet into him since then we leave ourselves drawing HU to 10 outs against his TT or AA. If he will only raise our bet with a better hand, we should either check/call or maybe check/raise for value since he will bet AK or QJ when we check to him.

In general, people will be quicker to raise the flop with overs when they see you as an aggressive player since their overs still might be good. So if we have a pretty LAGgish image, I would like a bet more then if we have a cautious image. If we are seen as someone who would only bet a pair or better, why would he raise with overs?

Brad

Nfinity 07-17-2005 12:22 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
Nice Post.

I hadn't quite realized how bad it would be to raise 2 overs in this situation.

baronzeus 07-17-2005 12:26 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
If you bet here, get raise, and call, you should stop-n-go and fold if raised on the turn except against the most aggressive of opponents.

Maybe I'm a bit biased here because I don't raise here with just overcards and I fold the turn UI against most opponents. I would raise here with an overpair. If I am OP, I'd rather just have the raiser bet into me until the river with his overs rather than get scared by my bet here.

Maybe since it's 3-handed and not HU the things I said don't apply.

shadow29 07-17-2005 12:27 AM

Re: Turn Action
 
I check/raise this turn. The board is not so scary and even a 1/2 player can read hands well enough to tell what you have when you donkbet. He will not raise overs here. I've made my hand and I want everyone to put two big bets in the pot.

Since this is 6-max, overs are quite likely to bet again. In my experience, short-handed players don't like to take free cards with overcards. Rather, they bet the turn hoping to fold out the player with position and then check behind on the river.

Thus, the best way of getting 2 big bets in on one street is through check-raising. Donking will get us 2 bets only when villain has an overpair, and in my experience big overpairs will 3-bet a check/raise with an overpair. If villain has a hand like TT, he'll call the c/r and again on the turn. However, when we donk, villain is likely just to call down.

Those are my thoughts, anyways.

Nfinity has some good thoughts and is showing a good thinking process, but I disagree with all his points.

A: Very doubtful that it gets checked through. Overcards will likely bet again, hoping to pick up the pot.

B: Not likely that any 1/2 SH player is folding to a turn c/r. Who cares if they know the strength of our hand? (If, of course, I grant the premise that they know what a turn c/r means). They've put in two bets already and will likely talk themselves into calling again on the river with overpairs.

C: See my discussion about overcards calling vs. betting and overpairs.

Of course, I could be totally wrong. So hopefully no one will judge this post on my "reputation" (I honestly didn't know I had one [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) alone.

Livin', Laughin', Learnin',

Big John [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

baronzeus 07-17-2005 12:27 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
[ QUOTE ]
Nice Post.

I hadn't quite realized how bad it would be to raise 2 overs in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should read Nate tha Great's challenge on finding a situation where raising with JUST over cards (no straight or flush draws) is +EV.

shadow29 07-17-2005 12:28 AM

Re: Flop Decision: 65s
 
I want to bet out the flop for two main reasons:

A) I might have the best hand (value bet).

B) I really want to get this pot heads up.

There are reasons relating to B) that I'm not going to type up.

edit- turn --&gt; flop (in bold)

baronzeus 07-17-2005 12:30 AM

Re: Turn Action
 
This is read dependent, but if I think I can get villain to bet the turn AND the river with just an over pair, I check/call the turn and check/raise the river.


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