AQ River
 

40/80 game last night, my first couple of orbits. i've played (and limped) exactly two hands thus far. so at this point i'm probably viewed as a weak/tightish player maybe.

i limp in EMP with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folded to an active decent player on the button who raises. (he will do this with a lot of hands to isolate) sb folds. bb folds. I 3-bet. He 4-bets. I 5-bet. He calls.

flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet. He calls.

turn: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check. He bets. I raise. He 3-bets. I call.

river: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

???

Re: AQ River
 

How aggro is this guy? Is he the sort that would 3 bet with an overpair on the turn? Would he 3 bet w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the turn? In my normal game, this 3 bet means a set, no less. Although I don't play well enough to fold top two in a pot this big, i'm not betting out.

However, if the villian is capable of 3betting with the above mentioned hands, I would be inclined to bet/call. You'd hate to give KK a free showdown (although that hand might fold), and I'd rather 1 or 2 bets go in on the river then 2 or 3, after all the strength he's shown.

lf

Re: AQ River
 

BET

Re: AQ River
 

Bet the river and call a raise.

ChewyMint

Re: AQ River
 

I really don't see the point of checking the turn.

only hand that your going to be ahead of that will bet the turn will be AJ or AK or <TT if he's a decent player and has a 4betting hand preflop.

any other hand your behind and your checkraise is just costing you another bet to draw.

I would've bet the turn, called a raise... would've made this hand a lot clearer.

anyhow bet river, call raise!

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't see the point of checking the turn.

only hand that your going to be ahead of that will bet the turn will be AJ or AK or <TT if he's a decent player and has a 4betting hand preflop.

any other hand your behind and your checkraise is just costing you another bet to draw.

I would've bet the turn, called a raise... would've made this hand a lot clearer.

anyhow bet river, call raise!

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering CDC's image right now, I think this guy will bet any two cards he holds here. I like the checkraise.

I like a check call on the river.

Re: AQ River
 

If he's decent he has to have JJ here, it would also suck to be shown KT of spades.

Re: AQ River
 

where was this game played?
i think you check/call the riv probably, but maybe folding would be extremely expert.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
where was this game played?
i think you check/call the riv probably, but maybe folding would be extremely expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

folding with his image would be extremely bad.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's decent he has to have JJ here, it would also suck to be shown KT of spades.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be very suprised if this guy turned over KTs. He isn't 3 betting with that here with a profile of 'decent' player.

b

Re: AQ River
 

You think you're viewed as weak tightish. You limp 5-bet preflop. Check raised and got 3 bet on the turn by a 'decent' player.

If this is a full game, this is a check-call on the river.

b

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
where was this game played?
i think you check/call the riv probably, but maybe folding would be extremely expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

folding with his image would be extremely bad.

[/ QUOTE ]weak tight guy fivebets UTG and you think this guy is gonna bluff him! he prob has QQ. he might even check it down!

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
where was this game played?
i think you check/call the riv probably, but maybe folding would be extremely expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

folding with his image would be extremely bad.

[/ QUOTE ]weak tight guy fivebets UTG and you think this guy is gonna bluff him! he prob has QQ. he might even check it down!

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think he bets KK?

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
where was this game played?
i think you check/call the riv probably, but maybe folding would be extremely expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

folding with his image would be extremely bad.

[/ QUOTE ]weak tight guy fivebets UTG and you think this guy is gonna bluff him! he prob has QQ. he might even check it down!

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think he bets KK?

[/ QUOTE ]HELL NO.

Re: AQ River
 

this looks like JJ

but i still bet and call a raise

Re: AQ River
 

Well if he is a reasonable/un-insane player...you are only beating KK. AA, QQ, JJ u are behind, I doubt AK plays this way (reasonable player anyway).

More than likely, it is JJ u are up against. Unless he thought his KK was good on the turn, but I see this move with KK more online than I do live.

Dont know if its the wussy move, but there is something to be said for check-calling here.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
this looks like JJ

but i still bet and call a raise

[/ QUOTE ]why would you do this?

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
this looks like JJ

but i still bet and call a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, i think bet-calling is the worst line to take.

Re: AQ River
 

Bet, if he raies, then you re-raise.

Lawrence

Results
 

Anyhow. I checked intending to call. He checked behind and his QJ was not good.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, if he raies, then you re-raise.

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]is that a bluff?

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
is that a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can betting into the pre-flop donk raiser on the river and then re-raising if he raises be a bluff? CCD has the best hand here at least over 80% of the time IMHO, so a re-raise is for value.

Lawrence

Re: AQ River
 

this is very clear. that ace changed nothing unless he has exactly KK which he'd proabably slow down w/ after getting limp reraised and 5 bet AND checkraised on the turn and STILL 3 bet.

it looks like QQ/JJ. i check call this river even though my first instinct says he has QJ. anything else to me would be spewing.

-Barron

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
is that a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can betting into the pre-flop donk raiser on the river and then re-raising if he raises be a bluff? CCD has the best hand here at least over 80% of the time IMHO, so a re-raise is for value.

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

Well now that u know the guy will run this way with QJ, sure. But before hand with no reads, besides active, decent player, Id seriously doubt hes good 80 percent.

When I first looked at the hand, without the preflop action, the villian having QJ is pretty plausible, but when u put in the preflop action, I thought it was more likely the guy had AK-AQ, AA-JJ, maybe even TT. Now that u know he will do this with QJ makes things easier in the future. CDC checking on the river, Im guessing was thinking the same thing.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, if he raies, then you re-raise.

Lawrence

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just curious lawrence, what hand ranges do you put him on, betting the river, and then what range do you put him on when he raises the river?

Re: AQ River
 

There are way too many hands in his range that he is trying to push hard with to push you around if he's the type to isolate you on the button with raises. Off the top of my head I could imagine almost any pocket pair, AK down to Ax, KQ down to Kx.

I find it hard to see a "decent" player slowplaying a set on that coordinated board on the flop getting fancy after the pot is already inflated. So I rule a set here to be unlikely.

On the turn, I've probably narrowed his hand down to AQ, KQ or Qx, possibly AJ, and slight chance for 66 or 77 (maybe 10%, 15% here at most). I do not put him on JJ, QQ, KK or AA at this point. His post flop play doesn't smell like a set as I mentioned, and since he did just stop to call you preflop after you raised, I don't think it's very likely for him to have AA or KK.

The river is an easy bet IMHO because I've narrowed him down to hands that I have him dominated over hands he has me dominated with. I'm playing the percentages here and given the action and my reads/analysis it favors me. If he has 66 or turned 77 for the sets, all the power to him, but I trust my reads and I'm gonna bop him and rebop him till proven otherwise.

Lawrence

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I find it hard to see a "decent" player slowplaying a set on that coordinated board on the flop getting fancy after the pot is already inflated. So I rule a set here to be unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't buy this as a sure fire way to eliminate QQ or JJ. As such, if I lead the river and am still raised, I'm really not buying it.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyhow. I checked intending to call. He checked behind and his QJ was not good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I would have done the same, but only because I am not disciplined enough to bet/fold and I'd definately want to showdown. You seem to be better at folding in these spots, so I am surprised you checked. What was your rationale? Did you just decide you needed to look him up, and only wanted to pay 1 bet to do it? Just curious.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is very clear. that ace changed nothing unless he has exactly KK
-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

This obviously is not true. I thinmk QJs and 67s are 2 of the more likely hands for his opponent.
I think betting and calling a raise is fine in this spot. You will lose sometimes, but you will also get raised and get shown AJ and QJ. Checking just costs you too many bets when he checks behind. I guess you will pick off some bluffs by check/calling when he had a flush draw on the turn but the flush hands don't seem that likely.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
CCD has the best hand here at least over 80% of the time IMHO, so a re-raise is for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

CDC surely doesn't have the best hand here anywhere near 80% of the time when he's raised on the river after the previous action in the hand.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I thinmk QJs and 67s are 2 of the more likely hands for his opponent.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given the pf action, I find it hard to believe that either of these holdings are reasonable for villain because (a) CDC said he is "active" not LAGgy, and (b) CDC believes that his image is weak-tightish. IMO a decent player is not going bonkers pf in this spot with either of those.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thinmk QJs and 67s are 2 of the more likely hands for his opponent.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given the pf action, I find it hard to believe that either of these holdings are reasonable for villain because (a) CDC said he is "active" not LAGgy, and (b) CDC believes that his image is weak-tightish. IMO a decent player is not going bonkers pf in this spot with either of those.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right, I completely forgot that it went 5 bets preflop. Haha.

Re: AQ River
 

It's my experience that very few poeple who fall under the category "active and decent", or anyone for that matter, are going to 4 bet with these types of hands, or anything but "real" hands after someone limp reraises them unless the limp reraiser is a maniac.

I recognize it as a possibility but just don't think it happens as often as you let on in your post.

After the previous action I'm giving the opponent credit for a hand. On the river theres 6 KK's 1 QQ's 3 JJ's 8 AK's (but only 1 As Ks) and 3 AA. I put As Ks and AA at pretty small probabilities of him having them on the river, and QQ, JJ together, though only 4 to 6 KK's, are more likely than KK given the turn 3 bet. Unless I know more about this player I don't put him on having another hand more than 10% of the time.

Looks like a check call on the river to me.

Most of the focus has been on the river but I'm really interested in preflop. Did you have a specific plan in mind when 5 betting, or was it one of those impromtu lets see what happens if i do this type of things. Unless I decided to try something new I would have just called the 4 bet since then you'll usually get more from him postflop if hes getting frisky with mediocre hand and by 5 betting you are making the pot so big that its gonna be tough for him to laydown AK unimpoved which seems to be the main benefit of 5 betting.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thinmk QJs and 67s are 2 of the more likely hands for his opponent.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given the pf action, I find it hard to believe that either of these holdings are reasonable for villain because (a) CDC said he is "active" not LAGgy, and (b) CDC believes that his image is weak-tightish. IMO a decent player is not going bonkers pf in this spot with either of those.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right, I completely forgot that it went 5 bets preflop. Haha.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, I was wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] I play bad.

Re: AQ River
 

I don't usually reraise here preflop. If there were more people in, sure, but heads up I think the deception you get by not raising is worth much more than the fraction of a sb in value that the raise earns you.

Re: AQ River
 

By the way, now that I've been reminded of the preflop action I think we should check and call on the river.

Re: AQ River
 

My first response is to bet / call a raise. I am trying to put him on a hand and the range I come up with is KK, AQ (probably both [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]), QQ, JJ, AA too maybe. I don't see him 4 betting preflop with something like KQ, QJ, or 66/77. So 6 KK, 1QQ, 1AA, 3JJ, the AQ hans are a wash. Maybe he even has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] if he is really aggressive. What does he put you on? AA/KK/QQ/AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] probably. I don't think he bets KK in this spot, but may call with it. I think he bets but won't raise with JJ, but maybe he will. I don't think I can lay down if I bet and am raised since there is a chance he views me as weak tight enough to make a play here, and I am weak human who will rationalize to call with top two in a huge pot. (Who knows, maybe he even has something like T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and would raise the river in desperation.)

Yeah, I probably fire and pay off a raise, though I doubt you get raised very often.

Re: AQ River
 

You're joking, no?
If he bets this river and gets raised he's probably good less than 5% of the time. He 5 bets preflop and then leads the river following a turn 3bet when the ace falls and there are 3 broadways cards on board and you think what worse hands are raising him and calling a 3bet? If he bets the river and gets raised I'd put his opponent on AAA or the straight.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, if he raies, then you re-raise.

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

this line is pure chip spewing.

Re: AQ River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this looks like JJ

but i still bet and call a raise

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, i think bet-calling is the worst line to take.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm wondering why, exactly. I haven't read the results yet, but here are the likely scenarios.

Villian checks behind w/ KK=bad for us
Villian checks behind w/ QJ=bad for us
Villian bets AK of Spades=good for us (but we can't c/r after all that strength).
Villian bets QQ, JJ or AA (and we call).

Bet/calling will get a call from all the hands he would check behind (except maybe KK, player depenant). We might get raised by AK of spades (if he's crazy), or an insanely paid AJ/AQ. We're definately getting raised by QQ, JJ or AA (unless he sees monsters under the bed).

Don't you think the single bet we gain from hands that would have checked, and potentianlly the 2 bets we gain from hands we beat, out weigh the risk of being forced to pay off a set? I honestly don't know, but I'd hate to not get at least one bet in on this river when I have the best hand.

lf