AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

This is from a hand I reviewed and I don't remember if I had any reads. PTY 1/2 HE - 6 max/6 hand

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP calls.

River: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero... </font>

Please Grunch it - Don't cheat yourself.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Why not? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Bet, raise, 3-bet, and cap the river if you can. I don't understand why this is even a question for an experienced player like you.

Disclaimer: My 6-max experience is virtually nil, but you have the fourth-best possible hand, for god's sake.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Bet the River.

Then sing a verse from Bruce Springsteen's "The River" as a celebration for winning the hand.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why not? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Question 2. OK: for those above and anyone (everyone?) else who answered bet - that is what I did. Here is the continuation. Your next action?

River: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, Hero...

Grunch before reading anyone else's anwsers. You have 15 seconds to decide.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

OK Now I see.
Reads would help but I think I say good bye to my aces and fold.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

I'd like to reiterate that the only hands you're losing to are KQ, Q8, and 87. I could see KQ here, but come on. More often, these guys are betting two pair with JT or AT or a set which isn't quite as good as your rockets. Cap. Seriously.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Question 3: OK - to those who answered question 2. Do you want to change your answer to the first action, or do you still bet that out?

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Bet the river or... What? Check-raise? I don't get it. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Are you serious? You do realize he has top set, right? You think 87, Q8, and/or KQ stayed in this long for their junk draws? You don't think this action is often generated by a two-pair hand? Or a worse set? Or a stupid ace?

If we were talking about unimproved rockets, then fine, I can see a fold here. We're not. We're talking about the actual fourth-best possible hand and I think we're seeing monsters under the bed, river action notwithstanding.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Of course I bet. And call 1 bet back to me. But not 2 bets with a mediocre pot and bad position.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Calls. I'm not folding top set against someone who could be 3-betting 2 pair or a smaller set.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Turbo-cap. If there was no cap HU, I don't know how far I would go before I would decide to smite some small furry animals and call. This is much closer though, as I do not know how often he has a random two pair or set versus the straight -- given the nature of the board, I think it is close. If nothing else, cap it and tell the BB he can have all the action he can eat.

-K

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Folding top set here is terrible.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

I don't even see how this is a decision. With the betting you'd have to be putting him on KT-JT, small possibility he is on AT or else he'd be raising you. Hell, I'd be calling down with mid pair and a good kicker if no one is showing any balls. Bet the flop, check raise the turn and cap that river. Either way it's a small pot, you should be taking this down before villian has a chance to hit the river straight.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I bet. And call 1 bet back to me. But not 2 bets with a mediocre pot and bad position.

[/ QUOTE ]

you fold TopSet for 2 bets on the river?

and I wish I had your game selection where 13.5BB is a mediocre pot

christ, you play the stars 2/4 right, [censored] you rarely get 7BBave in that game

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
Question 3: OK - to those who answered question 2. Do you want to change your answer to the first action, or do you still bet that out?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a retarded question with 0 value

this type of thinking will only hurt your game

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Question 2. OK: for those above and anyone (everyone?) else who answered bet - that is what I did. Here is the continuation. Your next action?

River: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, Hero...

Grunch before reading anyone else's anwsers. You have 15 seconds to decide.

[/ QUOTE ]


Edit: makes a crying call.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]

and I wish I had your game selection where 13.5BB is a mediocre pot

[/ QUOTE ]

!3.5 BB is not a mediocre pot. I was referring to the pot odds. You get 13.5:2 and possibly 18.5:3 if it gets capped.

I just noticed it is 6-max which changes things a bit towards a crying call. I don't want to be results oriented (it's obvious hero lost here to a straight) but whith no reads I would not want to call very often here. Calling is not a huge mistake but I don't think you can win here 1 out 7 times.

In (my) real life it depends: I would call at 2/4 SH (so yes at 1/2 SH as well) b/c I'm not that tough, although lately I have suffered a series of terrible bad beats and I would think twice. (That's why I stay away from 13.5 BB pots at 2/4 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Question 2. OK: for those above and anyone (everyone?) else who answered bet - that is what I did. Here is the continuation. Your next action?

River: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, Hero...

Grunch before reading anyone else's anwsers. You have 15 seconds to decide.

[/ QUOTE ]

call. I can't fold here. They show me 2 random cards too often.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Question 2. OK: for those above and anyone (everyone?) else who answered bet - that is what I did. Here is the continuation. Your next action?

River: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, Hero...

Grunch before reading anyone else's anwsers. You have 15 seconds to decide.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I cap it, because 2 pair or a lower set is much more likely than a straight.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

87, Q8 and KQ are the only hands to fear, and you have no evidence suggesting they are live. If you check and it checks through, you win the pot that is 2 BBs smaller than it should have been. If you bet and someone does have the aforementioned hands, you probably lose 1 BB (folding if it's 2 back to you).

Bet/call. Fold if it's 2 back to you.

EDIT: After reading down through the post...

I know this is 6-max, but 2 players are suddenly raising you on the river which makes several straights. There's a lot of expectation of two pair or a set more often than the straight. Well I would expect to see TT and 99 raising before the river, so that leaves only JJ which we'd probably see a raise from PF, but not always if the player is passive. Along those same lines, I'd expect any two pair made before the river to raise us (no one is going to credit you for a set of aces). AJ would probably have raised the flop.

With the action I'm seeing and no reads, I think we're beat. Donks will play KQ like this seeing that they only need one card to straight. Q8 and 87 are more of a stretch, but definitely playable especially with diamonds.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

First off, let me start off by saying that the reason you post a hand is because you want an unbiased, no- result oriented POV. Don't ask people if they change their answers after seeing some results. You cheat yourself.

People do crazy things at 1/2. People do crazy things at 6-max. It looks like your beat here without reads.

:shrug: So be it. This is a fairly decent pot and I don't think you have to win it that many times to break even. 6-maxers are notorious for bluffing scary rivers, slowplaying to the river and just generally playing their hand like they have the nutz when they don't. I'd be more apt to fold to the ominous diamond than the J. At least then a hand like 23 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] beats me. I call without reads.

And I wouldn't Cap, and the reason is this. The few times that BB is on a Bluff, you might scare him away by capping it when he would have called 1 bet. Your also behind a lot in this situation and the extra bet saved helps when BB decides to just call as well.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

grunch...

Bet the river. Are you that scared of KQ or Q8 in this situation? They've been calling you down this whole way. If you check and someone bets, you HAVE to call, making the obvious argument for leading out.

The more interesting question is how to handle a raise to your bet. I think you'd probably have to call for one bet, because it's much more likely someone picked up two-pair or a lower set than the straight. In fact, if BB raised and MP called, I'd probably re-raise for value.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

hehe ... I was right about the more interesting question.

I think you have to cap this. They'll both show you two-pair or a smaller set way too often to pass this up. I know KQ is the sort of hand donks would take this flop all the way to the river, but they'll also take any pair all the way to the river as well, especially in 6-max. The chances of BOTH villains being ahead of you is very low, and neither is going to fold to your cap, which adds substantially to the value you get from capping.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

I think the only question here is cap or call...

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Ok, Grunching.

Can't find even the slightest reason not to bet this river. 78 or KQ are not very likely.

-aron

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

I haven't read your post. When people title a post "Bet this river?" the answer is yes between 80 and 90% of the time. When I see you have top set, it had better be a 4flush, 4str8 board in a field of 5 villains, and it's checked to you on the button. I say bet. Now I'll read your post.

Edit: Well, I 1-upped your request to grunch, and upon reading your hand, the answer is yes. Please bet, for the love of all that is good in the world, especially the kittens.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

is this a trick question?

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please Grunch it - Don't cheat yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

GRUNCHING

I think you have to bet the river here unless you read one of these two as rocks (and how many of those do you find playing 6-max?) They are either bad players, on 2-pair or on draws. The draws are very probably flush draws. On the straight draws, they're not likely calling with KQ or K8 since the overcard limits their high card value and why would they call the flop with 78? I think you win this far more often than not, continue aggressive line and bet.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Hands that is worse than you but would call:

A - (k,q) kicker
Two pairs
K-10
= lets say 6 options.

Better hands than yours that would raise:
K-Q

Hands that would fold:
Busted flush draw

So, i think i would bet out. Fearing that it would get checked through with the 6 options above.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

I know you wanted grunches, but I thought I would point out that the one hand that a weak/tight BB might play here that makes sense is KQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I would call, not cap. If I'm right, then it's getting capped behind you anyway. MP has JT, IMO.

-Jaran

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Yes. If Mr. KQ or 78 decided to hang around with bad odds, oh well.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cappucino!

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason I'm capping is both players just woke up and are saying they have big hands. If they do in fact have big hands it will get capped behind you, and there is no way you can fold for that last bet with top set.

If they don't have as big of hands as you thought the 3bet may only get called, and you miss out on two bets.

By capping you are just putting in the inevitable 4th bet for the player who has the straight, but increasing your value for when you do have the best hand.

Hope that makes sense, I had a hard time converting that thought to words.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
the only hands you're losing to are KQ, Q8, and 87. I could see KQ here, but more often these guys are betting two pair with JT or AT or a set which isn't quite as good as your rockets. Cap.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Arsis,
Agreed, JT might call down the flop and turn with this hand, but AT would have raised the flop or certainly the turn, so I think we can eliminate that. A set of 2s or Tens would have certainly raised by the turn, so we can eliminate them. Surely, pocket nines would raise the turn when it made a set, so I think we can safely eliminate that possibility. JJ making a set on the river seems possible. Unlikely that MP has it and didn't raise preflop. BB could have it and might have declined to re-raise it after I raised from the SB.

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed, JT might call down the flop and turn with this hand, but AT would have raised the flop or certainly the turn, so I think we can eliminate that. A set of 2s or Tens would have certainly raised by the turn, so we can eliminate them. Surely, pocket nines would raise the turn when it made a set, so I think we can safely eliminate that possibility. JJ making a set on the river seems possible. Unlikely that MP has it and didn't raise preflop. BB could have it and might have declined to re-raise it after I raised from the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't buy it. As many times as I've seen people play sets and two pair slowly like they've seen on World Poker Tour, you can't wuss out on the river.

Also, just because something confusing happened on the river, that does not change the fact that you should always lead in this situation. I mean, theoretically, should you bet when you have no chance of winning? No. You can't possibly know that at this point, though, and you will win this hand most of the time.

If your question was, "should I just flat call this in the interest of keeping all three players in the hand?" then I think we could talk. I can't believe anybody was advocating folding top set on a minimally dangerous board. Talk about seeing monsters under the bed.

If you got outdrawn by a gutshot, I'm sorry. You still win this hand an overwhelming majority of the time and should not be afraid to put your money in when there are very logical other hands your opponents may hold that do not beat you.

DID I MENTION THAT YOU HAVE TOP SET AND THIS IS THE FOURTH-BEST POSSIBLE HAND? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I'm capping is both players just woke up and are saying they have big hands. If they do in fact have big hands it will get capped behind you, and there is no way you can fold for that last bet with top set.

If they don't have as big of hands as you thought the 3bet may only get called, and you miss out on two bets.

By capping you are just putting in the inevitable 4th bet for the player who has the straight, but increasing your value for when you do have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
That makes sense, Brady. So the critical decision becomes whether to call the two back to you, knowing that you might have to put in three BB to see the showdown.

Your getting 13:2 or 7.5:1 to call two against two opponents. If it gets capped, you will be getting 18:3 or 6:1 to call against two opponents.

If it were heads up, this would be a much easier decision. With two players raising, it seems to me the question is, what are the possible hands that two players made with the river Jack and what are the odds that we beat both of them? Perhaps we should guess that it will get capped half the time and split the difference between 7.5:1 and 6:1? Then say we are getting 6.75:1. Is that good enough odds to call two opponents on this board?

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

Grunching the first post in this string:

I'm relatively a newbie and only have been playing about 6 months and don't play above .5/1 full ring, yet and no 6 max. With that said, I'd bet the river and call if raised. But I tend to get a little tight and see monsters under the bed. :-)

Re: AA Makes Set - Bet The River? 1/2 6max
 

How is this not an obvious bet?