Laying down a set
 

Party 1/2, I have $200, villain has me covered. Villain is a regular in the game who is slightly over breakeven after about 500 hands. He's fairly tight preflop and I don't recall ever seeing him making any tricky moves. I have 33 on the button.

Villain opens for $8 in MP, someone calls, I call.

Flop comes AJ3r

Checked to me, I bet $20, villain is the only caller

Turn is a 2, completing the rainbow

Check, check

River is a 9, he bets $50, I fold.


I expect to get berated for this but those who are inclined to flame ought to think about what hands an unimaginative, straightforward villain plays this way. I thought of two and they both beat me.

Re: Laying down a set
 

I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

Re: Laying down a set
 

no chance he has AK here? If he hasn't tried anything tricky, why would he check a flopped AAA or JJJ twice. The only hand I can see him checking twice here is AAA...no way he checks JJJ twice. It seems like an AK worried about someone with AJ to me. I'm not sure I raise here, but I think I call this, I can't fold a set unless the board is really unfriendly. If he has AAA or JJJ or 999 then I'll pay it off.

Re: Laying down a set
 

Ghazban, come on.

You simply can't lay this down. What is his VPIP? Could he not have AQ here? He could certainly have AK.

Who is the player in question? I have a lot of hands at 200NL logged.

Is this not worth at least a call on the end (and probably a raise?)

I would personally make a big bet on the turn here.

Re: Laying down a set
 

I am not gonna berate it, but I would never fold this river for 50$, you are getting 2 to 1 for your call, and I dont think you are beat more then 50% of the times, why couldn't he play AK or AJ like this, checking a non scary board to you, and then check the turn again going for the check raise?

Re: Laying down a set
 

the villian didn't go allin. its only $50 into a $51 pot?

All you have to do is call and complete the hand, I understand if he goes allin or comes over the top of you, however he's allowing you to make the last decision by betting the pot. PAY HIM OFF HERE.

Re: Laying down a set
 

I really think Ghazban posts threads like these for a joke every now and then, weird sense of humour.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really think Ghazban posts threads like these for a joke every now and then, weird sense of humour.

[/ QUOTE ]
Has to be.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

Re: Laying down a set
 

i think that you need to bet the turn here. by the time you get to the river, i have no idea what villian holds. before i try to figure it out, i'm wondering, does villian generally bet the majority of flops after raising? or does he bet the ones he hits? what have you noticed him do after raising p/f?

Re: Laying down a set
 

He showed after I folded but I won't give it away just yet.

Re: Laying down a set
 

It matters not what he showed, you have to call this river :/

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think that you need to bet the turn here. by the time you get to the river, i have no idea what villian holds. before i try to figure it out, i'm wondering, does villian generally bet the majority of flops after raising? or does he bet the ones he hits? what have you noticed him do after raising p/f?

[/ QUOTE ]

Normally, he will lead the flop after raising. However, out of position against two players with a hand like KK/QQ, a check/fold is more likely.

Re: Laying down a set
 

I would bet the turn here for sure. somthing like 40 or 50. I think villian has an ace and wants to show it down...however given the action on the turn he probably figures he has the best of it and decided to bet the river.

Re: Laying down a set
 

Could be. The only problem is that this would be a tricky play for AK, as check/calling a set of Aces and especially Jacks doesn't seem like all that devious, it sounds reasonable.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if that's your read, then why bother raising on his check to you?

He could have had QQ, KK too.

Re: Laying down a set
 

isnt the pot somthing like 67?

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
He showed after I folded but I won't give it away just yet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing KK/QQ.

Re: Laying down a set
 

Nice hand. Might consider just open folding the flop though.

Seriously. You have never seen him do anything tricky, and you think that there's no way he doesn't have the nuts after he checks it twice to you? I suppose he showed you AA since you're defending the play so eagerly, but did you really fold this hand? Crazy stuff.

Re: Laying down a set
 

3 callers preflop = $24
flop = $20 * 2 = $40 +34

minus rake $3? ~ $64

Re: Laying down a set
 

He could bet 100K and i call no way you fold for 50. You should have bet the turn and bet the river not the other way around.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the turn here for sure. somthing like 40 or 50. I think villian has an ace and wants to show it down...however given the action on the turn he probably figures he has the best of it and decided to bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was sort of thinking this as Villian could have AQ. But I think he'd bet the flop with this. I could see him playing AJ in this manner. I think you have an argument for laying this hand down if you bet the turn and folded to a c/r or a c/c and river lead out by villian, but as you played it, folding is a bad play.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

Re: Laying down a set
 

For the specific line he took, possibilities for a tight, unimaginative player might include:

AA (3), JJ (3)
AK (12), AJ (9)

AQ (12), KK (6), QQ (6) (less likely)

If he's a solid regular in this game I guess he might not make that river bet with just TPTK, but it looks reasonable to me.

But even discounting TPTK, the likelihood that he holds AJ is greater than the combined likelihood of his holding AA and JJ (just counting combinations).

On that one alone, and getting better than 2:1, I'd call.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice hand. Might consider just open folding the flop though.



[/ QUOTE ]

Ignore my advice, this sounds better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree there. I'd call someone that has AK wit 33 anyday.

Re: Laying down a set
 

I don't like this line at all. You flopped exactly what you wanted. If you are calling a raise in late position with 33 what are you trying to do except flop a set? If you do, and then worry about set over set when there is paint on the board you have defeated the whole point of your original call.

As this hand played out, you must bet the turn. Given that you did not, I would call the river and might even raise. Your check on the turn could well have induced a bet from AK, AQ KK, QQ.

Putting him on AA or JJ only is too narrow.

Re: Laying down a set
 

If you think he would only check with a set on the flop then why don't you check behind?

Re: Laying down a set
 

Why bet so close to full pot on the flop? You're way ahead or way behind. Some of the best advice I've ever read was "keep the pot small until you've figured out what everyone has."

On the river I'd call against most people. He probably doesn't have QQ or KK, but I expect that he will sometimes have AK or AJ.

If you're laying this down solely based upon your analysis of his play over all of the hands that you've seen, then I don't understand why you're posting the hand -- we can't help you with that type of decision. You're either right or you're wrong, but either way you are in a better position to make the decision than we are.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree there. I'd call someone that has AK wit 33 anyday.

[/ QUOTE ]

and then play it the way Ghazban did?

Yes definitely +EV

[/sarcasm]

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree there. I'd call someone that has AK wit 33 anyday.

[/ QUOTE ]

He meant to say that if you don't think he can play the way he did in this case with AK, then you shouldn't play small pairs.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
He could bet 100K and i call no way you fold for 50. You should have bet the turn and bet the river not the other way around.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like an efficient way to lose a six figure bankroll.

Re: Laying down a set
 

I love the Carpal \'Tunnel advice. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this line at all. You flopped exactly what you wanted. If you are calling a raise in late position with 33 what are you trying to do except flop a set? If you do, and then worry about set over set when there is paint on the board you have defeated the whole point of your original call.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're not playing video poker -- we need to have the best hand of anyone at the table to win the pot, not just make the "hand that we're looking for." First level thinking will never win you any money.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why bet so close to full pot on the flop? You're way ahead or way behind. Some of the best advice I've ever read was "keep the pot small until you've figured out what everyone has."

[/ QUOTE ]

The honest response is that I thought "Wow! I've got a set! Let's bet!" Just because I expect the PFR to fold KK/QQ here doesn't mean I can't make some money off of the other guy if he's got a good ace or wants to chase a gutshot or something.

[ QUOTE ]
On the river I'd call against most people.

[/ QUOTE ]
Me, too

[ QUOTE ]
He probably doesn't have QQ or KK, but I expect that he will sometimes have AK or AJ.

If you're laying this down solely based upon your analysis of his play over all of the hands that you've seen, then I don't understand why you're posting the hand -- we can't help you with that type of decision. You're either right or you're wrong, but either way you are in a better position to make the decision than we are.

[/ QUOTE ]

All right, guilty as charged. I didn't post this for advice; I posted it because the hyper-aggressive advice in almost every thread on this board is starting to irritate me. I'm not trying to be the 2+2 Phil Hellmuth who makes big laydowns all day, but I assert that there are many times when you can know you are beat even at small stakes and lay down a strong hand.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing exactly how your opponent will play various types of hands postflop is a reason in favor of playing more pots with them, not a reason against it.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I assert that there are many times when you can know you are beat even at small stakes and lay down a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well put;)

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am not gonna berate it, but I would never fold this river for 50$, you are getting 2 to 1 for your call, and I dont think you are beat more then 50% of the times, why couldn't he play AK or AJ like this, checking a non scary board to you, and then check the turn again going for the check raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mathematically, I need to have the best hand about 30% of the time to call here. I think I have the best hand maybe 10% of the time.

Re: Laying down a set
 

[/ QUOTE ]
All right, guilty as charged. I didn't post this for advice; I posted it because the hyper-aggressive advice in almost every thread on this board is starting to irritate me. I'm not trying to be the 2+2 Phil Hellmuth who makes big laydowns all day, but I assert that there are many times when you can know you are beat even at small stakes and lay down a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that you can definately make big laydowns when your instincts tell you that you're beat, but based on the way you played this hand i don't see how you know. I feel like the turn was crucial in this one; it would have told you everything that you needed to know. By not betting it, I just don't see how you can put villian on precisely AA (or JJ).

Re: Laying down a set
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to flame, but this is seriously weak. Why can't he have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe he leads this flop with AK close to 100% of the time. I also believe he'd check/call or blocking bet the river rather than leading out for so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is honestly your attitude you should never call a raise pre-flop with small PP's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Knowing exactly how your opponent will play various types of hands postflop is a reason in favor of playing more pots with them, not a reason against it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tell me how Ghazban expects to make money in this situation...

If villain check-calls his bet, hes practically finished with his hand. If villain bets and Ghazban raises, hes almost definitely folding if hes missed ak, all the other times he has an overpair, i doubt hes investing much more into this pot, hes probably folding by the turn.

This doesn't sound like a very +EV situation to me, perhaps you could explain how it is?

Maybe Ghazban will make good on his initial investment everytime villain has a (missed) overpair or AK that has hit at the same time hes made his set, is this what you think?