I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

Setup: I'm drinking 3 olives vodka listening to ben folds cover 'bitches aint [censored]' early into the session. BAC ~0.10. Seat 4,5 are known players, but i have no reads on them because I don't pay attention to anyone but myself.

No one has any reads on me other than knowing I bluffed a draw for half the pot on a turn with JTs in position a few hands early. About 10 hands into the session..

Please don't ask about the preflop reraise. I do this once a month, tops. Blame the liquor. My question is about the river call.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

SB ($180.7)
BB ($185)
UTG ($189.6)
MP ($457.95)
CO ($193.6)
Kyo the Qat ($195.75)

Preflop: Kyo the Qat is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Kyo the Qat raises to $9</font>, SB calls $8, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $5.

Flop: ($29) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2</font>, CO calls $2, Kyo the Qat calls $2.

Turn: ($35) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $15</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Kyo the Qat raises to $45</font>, SB calls $30.

River: ($125) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $124.7 (All-In)</font>, Kyo the Qat calls $124.70.

Final Pot: $374.40

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

The river call is fine.

You're going to be shown AJ/KJ/total crap here often enough to make up for the times you're shown a monster.

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed.]
 

[ QUOTE ]
The river call is fine.

You're going to be shown AJ/KJ/total crap here often enough to make up for the times you're shown a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

My view was that the total crap factor was the clincher. I only thought about AJ in between when I decided to call and when I was shown the hand. I don't think it factored in my decision.

-kyo

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

Surely with SB smooth calling a min-raise and reraise, this is far more likely to be a pocket pair than a weak hand like AJ or KJ?? J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is possible, but this is probably a flopped set, and I would fold to the river bet.

If the action was from the CO, I'd be far more likely to call.

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

the mistake is the very small raise on the turn imo. you have the nuts, the SB likes his hand and there are 28(!!!) scare cards in the deck. a raise to 75 for a pot sized bet looks fine.

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($35) J (3 players)
SB bets $15, CO folds, Kyo the Qat raises to $45, SB calls $30.


[/ QUOTE ]

$35 + $15 = $50
Hero bets $45

How is that small ?

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kasey [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: ($35) J (3 players)
SB bets $15, CO folds, Kyo the Qat raises to $45, SB calls $30.


[/ QUOTE ]

$35 + $15 = $50
Hero bets $45

How is that small ?

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kasey [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

15$ of the 45$ is needed to match villains bet.

that means the pot is 65 at this point and the raise is 30 more. thats less than half the pot where i would prefer a pot sized bet or even an overbet.

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

Folding to the river bet is weak-tight-awful.

Open-raise to $4, flat-call a pf raise, gay-bet an undercard flop, wake up when a J hits, then just call a raise, go nutty when another J hits. Looks like somebody playing AJ to me.

Kyo re-raised PF, so his opponent with AJ is just praying that Kyo has AA/QQ and is attached to it. There's no way that he slowed down on the turn because he put Kyo on the straight. He slowed down on the turn because all he had was TPTK, and he thought he might be beat by an overpair.

You're making the classic 2+2 weak-tight mistake of putting opponents on extremely narrow and inaccurate hand ranges.

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

You have an extremely liberal definition of the term 'scare card'.

I suggest you see a doctor to get some anti-anxiety medication.

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have an extremely liberal definition of the term 'scare card'.

I suggest you see a doctor to get some anti-anxiety medication.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your assessment.. I am not going to be scared of all 25 of of these if I've put him on any sort of specific range (ie drawing vs made).

I do feel, however, that the call is not as easy as you think. The flop donk bet is the only real clue that would lead to AJ/KJ..

And some people will make that dumb of a bet with a monster, too. They're not good players, but they can still take my money doing that sh*t from time to time.

-kyo

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

You have to call here. It looks like it could be J10-AJ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], a full house, or even a bluff with the missed diamond draw. The combination of possible bluff or J10-AJ diamond or no diamond is higher than 33%.

on second thought, the way the hand was played i would put the chances of a flopped set rivered fullhouse much lower than either of the other possibilities. It definitely looks most like AJ-J10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Easy call.


Hopefully not J9.

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

[ QUOTE ]


I do feel, however, that the call is not as easy as you think. The flop donk bet is the only real clue that would lead to AJ/KJ..

And some people will make that dumb of a bet with a monster, too. They're not good players, but they can still take my money doing that sh*t from time to time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes your opponent is going to have a boat/quads here, but he'd have to have you beat better than 2/3 of the time to make it a bad call. I just don't think that's realistic.

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have an extremely liberal definition of the term 'scare card'.

I suggest you see a doctor to get some anti-anxiety medication.

[/ QUOTE ]

any of those cards weakens my hand considerably (i have the nuts on the turn but not on the river anymore). that doesn't mean that i wouldn't call the river if one of those cards come.

but don't you agree with my statement that the turn bet is ways too small?

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

[ QUOTE ]
Open-raise to $4, flat-call a pf raise, gay-bet an undercard flop, wake up when a J hits, then just call a raise, go nutty when another J hits. Looks like somebody playing AJ to me

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to think that we are playing against the cut-off. We're not - we are against the SB. SB did not open-raise to 4, he smooth called a preflop min-raise and a reraise.
I agree that if we were against the CO this would be an easy call.
However we are against the SB. Do we really put him on a flat call out of position with AJ, then min-betting into two raisers with only overcards?

Re: I think this river call is bad. [Fixed. I think.]
 

[ QUOTE ]

I agree that if we were against the CO this would be an easy call.
However we are against the SB. Do we really put him on a flat call out of position with AJ, then min-betting into two raisers with only overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's just as viable as pocket nines. Or at least 33% as viable, which is all Kyo needs.

The gay bet is the thing that really makes me think a set isn't that likely. Most people who flop a set on a not paritcularly threatening board (only real danger is the flush draw) are going to attempt a trap. A miniature blocking bet isn't a trap so much as an attempt to see a cheap turn.

To me, this increases the odds of overcards/flush draw... something that is looking to buy a cheap card in a decent sized pot.