Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

UTG is a rock and raising with AK or better, my pokertracker stats on him have a VPIP of 10% over 50 hands so it is more likely that he is raising a big pair here. The SB is a complete maniac and caps or bets every street post flop. I cold called the raise here with position and what I thought were enormous implied odds.

I missed bets on the flop and turn since if I raise the SB will almost certainly 3 bet, but I wanted UTG to stick around for the ride so I didn't go nuts until the river. So given how it played out was my estimation of the implied odds involved justification for the cold call here?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (8 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 20 BB

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

its terrible.

if youre cold calling with small pairs looking for the set, you need a multi-way pot, as well as somekind of special circamstance.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

It is especially terrible to be playing 9 handed 6max tables. Looks like we found a couple leaks in your game.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

it is terrible. you are only going to get 3.5:2 immediately and 6:2 at best on that call. This means you need to make up about 5-6 bbs ON AVERAGE which is not going to happen against two opponents.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
its terrible.

if youre cold calling with small pairs looking for the set, you need a multi-way pot, as well as somekind of special circamstance.

[/ QUOTE ]

And when you get there, you need to get the most band for your buck. I'm guessing by the action that UTG had a big pair with a heart and SB probably had another big heart. Given your reads, I think you missed approximately 7 beelion bets here, especially if the turn and river don't come runner-runner [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s.

-d

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

The inclusion of the maniac does help your implied odds, but I doubt he helps enough to make up for the short table. This is still a fold PF for me.

Furthermore, raise the flop. The maniac is unlikely to fold and might give you action, and the same is true for UTG. With the drawy board, your opponents and your position, this hand is a cash register. All you gotta do is keep hitting the 'open drawer' button.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

That was AWFUL. If the guy is a rock, why would you even think of calling with a small pair? On top of that, there were no callers, so that makes it even worse. If 3 or more of the folders had cold-called then it might have been on the low end of marginal, but you're basically cold-calling to two outs. You simply got lucky. I hope you don't make posts berating people for doing similar things to you.

Also, I dunno what implied odds you're talking about. You were against 2 opponents... one was a maniac, so he's the only one you can count on for action... not nearly enough to justify the call.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

I don't like the cold-call, but I like the post-flop play, actually. You waited for SB to get a good second best hand (I'm assuming he had the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), and you let UTG+1 bet your hand for you with KK or whatever.

As for preflop, I'm folding or 3-betting. If the blinds will fold to a 3-bet, then you might be able to take the pot down on a flop like J93 when he whiffs his AK, or on a flop like A85 when he has QQ. If he caps PF and leads the flop, set it or forget it.

But that's an expensive way to steal the pot, so I think all told I'd muck.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

This call sucks.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

Fixed the HH. Its a 10 max table.

Im 1-7.5 to flop a set. Im getting 1.75-1 on my call right now and it will be 2.75 to 1 once the SB calls. Now if I only continue when I hit a set then I can expect to lose 6.5BBs on the call. To make this call breakeven I have to be able to pick up 6.5BBs on the times I do flop a set.

Now UTG is a rock, but he overplays his hands when he gets involved. The maniac really likes to bet. In this case, I pick up 2BBs on the turn and 8BBs on the river which more than offset the expected value of the call. Had I played this perfectly I could have expected to pick up 16.5BB's, and I think this more than offsets the call.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

Actually UTG had AA with the Ace of hearts and the maniac had either 45 or 56 with 1 heart.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

Your thinking is much too results-oriented here. Notice the confluence of events that occurred on your hand to encourage action:

1. One of your opponents had aces.
2. The board put four hearts up.
3. Three players got to the river.

In a three-handed pot, you will very rarely have circumstances nearly so good. 6.5 BB is really a huge number. To reach that kind of implied payoff, you need to have confidence that two opponents will put in a big bet on each street, or betting will have to get crazy at some point. You cannot count on this!!! 4 BB might be a reasonable expectation, but 6.5 is extremely optimistic.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

At least 3 players have been getting to the river every hand because of the maniac. The average pot size at this table was 9BBs and would have been higher if everyone weren't so afraid of the maniac. Most people were letting him bet. I bet and let him raise. Every pot I involved myself in during my session at this table I had the nuts or near nuts for and easily drove the pot size up to 20+BBs.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

Preflop, I know you want to play with the maniac. We all do, but you don't have to take small advantages versus a maniac, he will give you plaenty of opportunities to outplay him when you have a very large edge. In this case you have what you think is an uber tight player raising in first position, your hand needs to be very strong to cold call and maybe a notch weaker to 3 bet, but we aren't talking about many hands here(Big pairs and AK). Just because a bad player may come in doesn't mean you can loosen up against other players. In 3 way pots small pairs really lose quite a bit of value, you don't get odds for a set, and the reverse implide odds strip their pair value.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

BTW Dynasty will likely disagree with me here.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
In 3 way pots small pairs really lose quite a bit of value, you don't get odds for a set, and the reverse implide odds strip their pair value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read my analysis of the implied odds above. Then tell me why I'm wrong.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In 3 way pots small pairs really lose quite a bit of value, you don't get odds for a set, and the reverse implide odds strip their pair value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read my analysis of the implied odds above. Then tell me why I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

see below

but you don't have to take small advantages versus a maniac, he will give you plaenty of opportunities to outplay him when you have a very large edge.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

Why not push both the small edges and the big ones? Besides the only good hands I got for the 75 hands that table was good were small pocket pairs.

I learned that the pot was getting jammed every hand so the implied odds went through to roof.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
To reach that kind of implied payoff, you need to have confidence that two opponents will put in a big bet on each street, or betting will have to get crazy at some point. You cannot count on this!!! 4 BB might be a reasonable expectation, but 6.5 is extremely optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can count on this since it has been true every hand for the last 30 minutes. This maniac was raising every hand preflop, but he never 3 bet. He was raising every street post flop, so I could reasonably expect the betting to get crazy at some point.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

If you are saying you had several sets in 75 hands that is more analogous to having the deck hit you in the face than to pushing small edges.

As I stated in my post several people disagree with my statements, and in a tougher game I do often play small pairs when it seems that I'm not getting proper preflop odds, but there are a few things that I'm looking for.
1) I can get in cheap
2) The players will pay me off.

What you present is that it may cost me 2, 3, or 4 bets to play preflop, and the player that I expect to pay me off sufficient to compensate for these extra bets has not acted yet and may very well fold.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

so he was raising every street each hand... except the one time you happen to be in. sure.

youve posted a very basic hand, with a clear correct solution, and now you are getting all defensive when you dont like what you hear. if you were a bit more reasonable people might be more inclined to explain it to you.

the call was terrible, end of discussion.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

I agree with W. Deranged here. I think you're over-estimating your implied odds. By my calculations, there is about a 16% chance by the river that the overpair will have made its set (4 cards to hit 45/47*44/46*43/45*42/44). You will lose alot on those hands. Sometimes the board will come 4 hearts when you don't fill. Once in a while the maniac will beat your set. Even on the board you flopped, the Aces still have 4 outs (a ten screws you)

I'd be interested in seeing a showdonw win% assuming you flop a six and are against AA and a random hand. If I get a chance I'll run it on TTH.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

FWIW,
What if any point is the cut off for pairs that are acceptable cold calls in this situation.

I figure rebump with everything TT and up.

So is 99, 88 acceptable and nothing else? Or should we rebump 99, 88 as well and muck everything else.

Cold calling does suck though, I tend to think raise or fold.

Anyone?

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

I am getting defensive because nobody has provided me with an adequate explanation as to why this call is bad. The maniac had been going nuts in every pot up to this point. In this situation, it worked out in my favor. I could post hand after hand of this maniac going nuts to SHOW you all that the implied odds were there.

Just look at the maniac's play on the river, he has either a 4 or 5 high flush and he went nuts. He was doing this on every street for most hands.

Yes it is odd that the maniac did not go crazy earlier in this hand, but it does not change the fact that I can assume that I will be getting the right implied odds based on the fact that for the last 50 or so hands he HAS gone nuts.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

<font color="red">[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a rock and raising with AK or better, my pokertracker stats on him have a VPIP of 10% over 50 hands so it is more likely that he is raising a big pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]</font>


I tried to make that part stand out, because you must have missed it while you were playing this hand!!



[ QUOTE ]
The SB is a complete maniac and caps or bets every street post flop. I cold called the raise here with position and what I thought were enormous implied odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Be honest with yourself.... you're trying to justify a horrible call (both then and now). This read on SB does not negate your read on UTG - not even close.




Adam

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

If he has AK I am a favorite. If he has a big pair I am a 4-1 dog. I don't particularly care either way since I am playing for a set on the flop knowing that the big pair will pay me off and the maniac will go nuts.

Yes there will be times when my hand gets counterfeited or beat, but those are rare after I flop my set and the 20+BB pots I take down make up for the questionable call preflop.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

Also, when determining the implied odds of small PP (those that are quite unlikely to win without improvement), you should use something better than 7.5:1, as you're not continuing on many flops that don't give you a set AND you have to take into account the times your set loses (and you likely lose many bets postflop). I've seen 10:1 cited as a good rule of thumb, but am willing to bump it down to 9:1 a lot of the time, because I like to play poker.

-d

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

Fold preflop - given he's a rock and no other callers.

But sweet hand after that ...

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

In this case I am not continuing on ANY flop that doesnt yield a set based on my read of UTG.

Given that 10-1 number, if I can expect to see a 20+BB pot every hand, is putting in 1BB preflop so bad? If so please explain why.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he has AK I am a favorite. If he has a big pair I am a 4-1 dog. I don't particularly care either way since I am playing for a set on the flop knowing that the big pair will pay me off and the maniac will go nuts.

Yes there will be times when my hand gets counterfeited or beat, but those are rare after I flop my set and the 20+BB pots I take down make up for the questionable call preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]



What do you want me to say?

Okay, fine. You're right. Keep cold-calling super-tight-TAG-UTG-raisers with 66 in these situations. I'm sure it'll work out well for you.


Adam

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
In this case I am not continuing on ANY flop that doesnt yield a set based on my read of UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

So on one hand you're saying that you may even be a slight favourite if UTG has 66. Then you're saying that you'd fold if you don't flop a set..... ARE YOU STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THE FLAWS WITH YOUR REASONING?

[ QUOTE ]

Given that 10-1 number, if I can expect to see a 20+BB pot every hand, is putting in 1BB preflop so bad? If so please explain why.

[/ QUOTE ]


[b]Because you can't expect to win a 20 BB pot every time!!! (or even 10 BB for that matter). All you have is a read that SB is a maniac. There's no telling what he'll do. He may fold behind you! He may fold the flop! Both players may fold at any point..... This is gonna be a 2-3 handed pot... rarely do such pots get up over 10 BB's.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]


Because you can't expect to win a 20 BB pot every time!!! (or even 10 BB for that matter). All you have is a read that SB is a maniac.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you misunderstanding what I am saying? The average pot size at this table was 10BB's. From watching the table play almost all of the pots could have been substantially larger if people were willing to get into a raising war with the maniac.

[ QUOTE ]
There's no telling what he'll do. He may fold behind you! He may fold the flop! Both players may fold at any point.....

[/ QUOTE ]

At this point I have probably 30 hands on the maniac. He has never folded. UTG I have about 30 hands on as well, he has 10% VPIP but of the hands I had seen him play he took them too far when he was obviously beat, it is unlikely that he will fold after raising UTG.

[ QUOTE ]
So on one hand you're saying that you may even be a slight favourite if UTG has 66. Then you're saying that you'd fold if you don't flop a set..... ARE YOU STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THE FLAWS WITH YOUR REASONING?

[/ QUOTE ]

Get your facts straight. I might even be a slight favorite over AK, the lowest of his possible holdings.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
So on one hand you're saying that you may even be a slight favourite if UTG has 66. Then you're saying that you'd fold if you don't flop a set..... ARE YOU STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THE FLAWS WITH YOUR REASONING?

[/ QUOTE ]

Get your facts straight. I might even be a slight favorite over AK, the lowest of his possible holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

he said 66, but he pretty clearly means AK.

the point is, you are not even close to being a favorite over AK. If you were both all-in, sure, but you are playing fit or fold on the flop and he is not.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

I ran my TTH sim with 66 vs AA vs any2, assuming a 6 is on the flop. Even with a 6 on the flop, you will lose this pot 25% of the time. The AA will win 18.6% and the random hand will win 6.4% of the time.

So if you assume that the pots you lose are going to be the same size as the pots you win, you can pretty much cut your expected pot size in half and call that your net win when you flop a set.

If you really could be sure that your average pot was going to net the winner 20BB, it would be ok to call. I think that is very optimistic though. Even a maniac can fold. Sometimes the flop will be bad for the tight player and he will fold (whiffed with AK, JJ on a board of AK6, etc). I think that the absolute most you can average is going to be something like capped flop, 2 bets on the turn, 2 bets on the river. That gives you a net of (2.5+4+4+4) 14.5 Big Bets. Cut that in half for when you lose with a set, and you have about 7 to 1.

Even with this best case it's a loser. A few other possible problems. The maniac could 3-bet preflop-- You said he wasn't doing that, but I'm betting that if he looks down at AA-TT, AK, he'll 3-bet. Also, the BB could wake up with a hand and 3-bet. Either way, you're now trapped for 2 more small bets (asuming UTG caps).

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

why did you post this hand if you're just going to be dismissive of the criticism? It appears you're already convinced in your mind that you're right.
anyway, given your reads, missing raises on the flop and the turn is absolutely atrocious. You say that the maniac never folds, and yet you only call the flop and the turn? Frankly you got lucky the fourth flush card came up so you could make up some of what you missed early in the hand. Without that fourth heart I'm pretty sure you wouldn't have hit your 'guaranteed' 20BB.

[ QUOTE ]
UTG I have about 30 hands on as well, he has 10% VPIP but of the hands I had seen him play he took them too far when he was obviously beat, it is unlikely that he will fold after raising UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is bad and I don't think I need to explain why....

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
The SB is a complete maniac and caps or bets every street post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
On one hand you say this. On the other hand, the maniac doesn't raise 2 of the 3 postflop streets on the hand you show us. Which should we believe? As I see it, if a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] doesn't river, your flopped FH will rake in a killer 10BB pot, 3.5 that you put in yourself.

Now if, in fact, this hand is not representative of maniac's play and he was raising every street postflop, not just when he made a flush, and every contested pot was 20BB+, then you should be limping with pretty much any two cards and calling a raise with many coordinated cards.

Incidentally, I don't like your turn call. Anybody that's going to pay chips on the river will pay chips on the turn. And there are 10 scare cards in the deck that will prevent you from getting your chips in on the river.

As long as we're being results oriented, based on the hand played, you left at least 2BB on the table by not raising the turn.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

Hamlet thank you for your well thought out analysis. That is all I wanted. Perhaps I was being a bit optimistic in how big I could get the pot.

I could be mistaken here but it seems that the below doesn't work out mathematically.


[ QUOTE ]
So if you assume that the pots you lose are going to be the same size as the pots you win, you can pretty much cut your expected pot size in half and call that your net win when you flop a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pots I win are the same size as the pots I lose and the only pots we are concerned about here are the ones where I flop a set. Then I assume I win 25% of the time when I flop a set. Why then are we cutting the pot in half for the net win when I flop a set? Wouldnt it make more sense to cut the pot by 25%?

Just for kicks lets try to figure out what the end pot needs to be for the call to work out. -6.5BB for all the times I miss. .75x= 7.5 = 10BBs for the call to be breakeven.

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
At this point I have probably 30 hands on the maniac

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then! Why didn't you say so earlier.... 30 hands!

Forget everything I said. You are most certainly correct on this matter.


Adam

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
On one hand you say this. On the other hand, the maniac doesn't raise 2 of the 3 postflop streets on the hand you show us. Which should we believe?

[/ QUOTE ]


LMAO.. nice one!


I'm sure this was just a rarity. After all, OP has 30 hands of reads that say otherwise!!


Adam

Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just for kicks lets try to figure out what the end pot needs to be for the call to work out. -6.5BB for all the times I miss. .75x= 7.5 = 10BBs for the call to be breakeven.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're just playing for the set, then you'll need a little bit more than 10BBs, since you'll lose bigger pots, on average, than you win.

On the other hand, there are spots where you can continue without flopping a set and this helps compensate somewhat, so clearing 10BBs is a decent rule of thumb.

Do you really think that you will get, on average, 5BBs from each of your opponents? I wasn't at the table, so I don't know. But I don't think I've ever sat at a table where the average 3-way pot was 15BB.