How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

Will someone be knocked out on the first hand of the main event(on any of the 3 days)? Just doing some quick math, 1 in 221 for pocket AA, so roughly 10 people (of 2200) will get AA in the first hand each day. That's 30 people who will start their tournament with rockets. And since about 1 in 24 times there is ALSO a KK, that means the numbers say their will likely be an AA vs KK somewhere on the first hand of the ME. And that's usually a recipe for fireworks, especially if they are two internet players who ram-and-jam. Obviously a LOT of people are going to have to get knocked off quick on each of the day one's, but hand 1? Maybe that hypothetical that so many people talk about (someone moves all-in and you have KK, do you call?) will actually come through.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

I would guesstimate that it's quite likely multiple players are eliminated on the first hand on all 3 days.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

My roommates are both gonna be there, and we set the over-under at ten minutes for the earliest elimination on any of the first days in the ME, and I took the under.

Just hope it's not one of them.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My roommates are both gonna be there, and we set the over-under at ten minutes for the earliest elimination on any of the first days in the ME, and I took the under.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you made a GREAT bet!.. I think you are a huge favorite to win that.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

The situation for someone to be knocked out on the first hand is probably a bit different than what you describe.


In the $3k NL event on Friday my table had a player knocked out on the very first hand.
It's not the main-event...but it's a pretty good sized event still (1010 players at $3k apiece...1st place paid $650k).


Here's the situation...only 4 players are at the table (lots of late arrivals...everyone was there within 3-5 minutes...but for the VERY first hand it was just 4 of us).


UTG (who is actually in the CO) limps, I fold the button. SB completes.

Flop is 679r.

UTG and SB: bet, raise, re-raise and then go all-in and call.

It's my very first hand at ANY WSOP and I'm looking back and forth at the betting and am thinking "Holy Crap!! WTF are these guys doing?"

Flop was 679
UTG has T8o for the nut-straight.
SB has 99 for top-set.


The straight holds up...SB is history. Dealer shouts "Seat open, Table 189!" and everyone around us is staring at our table and thinking "What the hell happened over there?"


I was sitting next to the guy who had the straight and we became chatty over the next several hours (and the next day I bumped into him at the Bellagio and we talked some more).

I had witnessed quite an impressive hand in my WSOP debut.
...in a few minutes it was the two of us sandwiched between two world-champs (Huck Seed and Tom McEvoy).

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

If you got even odds on this then your roommates are morons.

There is virtually no way you won't win this bet.

Even 3 or 4 minutes would be tough for them to win.
10 minutes?? Are you kidding??

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]


There is virtually no way you won't win this bet.

Even 3 or 4 minutes would be tough for them to win.
10 minutes?? Are you kidding??

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I was thinking!

Suerte,
Jonathan

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
And since about 1 in 24 times there is ALSO a KK, that means the numbers say their will likely be an AA vs KK somewhere on the first hand of the ME.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sorry, I am retarded and it is early, can you tell me how you came to this conclusion? The '1 in 24' part that is.

Thanks

PG

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And since about 1 in 24 times there is ALSO a KK, that means the numbers say their will likely be an AA vs KK somewhere on the first hand of the ME.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sorry, I am retarded and it is early, can you tell me how you came to this conclusion? The '1 in 24' part that is.

Thanks

PG

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You forget that two aces are already out of the deck. That takes it from 156-1 down to 24 -1. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You forget that two aces are already out of the deck. That takes it from 156-1 down to 24 -1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I need some more coffee cause the brain isn't computing, which usually isn't a problem.

156-1? Don't you mean 220 -1?

Please elaborate. Now I am perplexed.

PG

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

I think the OP is right now, surprisingly (to me anyway). Your 220 is correct, but divide it by 9 other hands to get the 24. If 9 handed table, closer to 27 to 1.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

The first day at the WSOP it is very likely that all the tables will be 11-handed.


that's their plan anyway if they get enough players which it looks like they will (they have already stated that they will be 11-handed at the beginning).


Obviously this increases the chances that you will get AA and KK on the same table.


I still think the chances of a first-hand knock out will come AFTER the flop.

It doesn't even need to be T8 vs 99 on 679 flop.


AA vs. 88 on 268 flop is enough to EASILY get a first-hand elimination.

AhKh vs 88 on flop of Ac8h6h would be enough too with many players.



If you don't think this can happen then I believe you are severely underestimating the typical mediocre player's drive to GAMMMBBOOOOOLLLL!!!

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

I'm not playing in the event, so this is with a grain of salt - but I would find it AWFUL difficult to get myself all in on the first hand without AA or KK preflop or without the stone nuts after the flop. I mean, this is 10k right? In 2 minutes? I think I'd go throw up afterwards.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

do you think you could lay-down 99 on a flop of 679?

I just don't think there's any way he's getting away from that hand EVEN on the first hand of a big tournament.


The chances that your opponent has 77 or 97 or AA are still pretty high.


Whether or not he left the room to throw-up I am not sure.
The guy who won the hand almost had a heart-attack I think just needing to dodge those full-house bullets on the last 2 cards.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

It doesn't even have to be getting away from 99 on a 976 flop. You could have QQ on a Q 8 2 flop against 88 and then go all in on the turn and have an 8 hit on the river.

If there are 100 tables playing, they'll probably get in like 300-400 hands before the first 10 minutes are up. I think it would be almost impossible for this to not happen.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

Similar situation happened to a frequent poster in last year's main event. Very, very early, maybe first ten minutes. I don't remember all the details, but I think he had JJ on a KQJ board, bet or raised the flop and other one pushed. He made what the rest of us that heard it at the time thought was a poor call and the other guy, of course, had broadway with AT. Board does not pair and he was out.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Similar situation happened to a frequent poster in last year's main event. Very, very early, maybe first ten minutes. I don't remember all the details, but I think he had JJ on a KQJ board, bet or raised the flop and other one pushed. He made what the rest of us that heard it at the time thought was a poor call and the other guy, of course, had broadway with AT. Board does not pair and he was out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to recreate an old hand, but the problem is, by the time you have defined your opponent's hand, you are usually getting appropriate odds to call the all-in with a set. I know..."donkeys alwasy draw"

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

well....if two guys go all-in with set over set then it wouldn't matter if the lower set were to hit his quads on the turn.

I hit a 1-outer of this variety in the Zoo Tsunami relief tourney on Stars last December.
I had set of 5's against his set of T's....but nailed my quads on the river...went on to finish 6th in the tourney.


FWIW - The number of ridiculous 'went all-in with my quads and he his his straight-flush draw' bad-beat stories that I have heard out here is ridiculous.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

They won't be playing 11-handed. They will start with 2000 players each day (200 tables of 10 players), with 200 alternates...


-Aces

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

I will be VERY relieved if this is true.
but I thought I read on their little FAQ sheet that it said 11-handed play.
I don't remember right now though and don't feel like trying to find the sheet to confirm.
If it's 11-handed then I'll deal with it...if not then I won't complain.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

Yeah, like I said I don't remember all the details, but when the push came, it was a huge overbet if I recall correctly. But I could be wrong.

The point is, the first to bust is probably going to be two big made hands, like set vs str8, where they both get in on the flop as opposed to a AA v KK preflop situation.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

Has anyone here played in a tournament online of any buyin where someone wasn't eliminated in the first minute?

I've seen it every time, one time I went out on the first hand of a PL Omaha hi/low tournament and to my amusement I was 1 of 13 people who went broke on the first hand. Less than a thousand entered. Of course a 10$ tourney is nothing compared to the ME, but with even more people I don't see how fewer than 13 will exit on the first hand

I'd take the ten minute bet if I had to guess the first letter of the person's name.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My roommates are both gonna be there, and we set the over-under at ten minutes for the earliest elimination on any of the first days in the ME, and I took the under.

Just hope it's not one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very easy money for you.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My roommates are both gonna be there, and we set the over-under at ten minutes for the earliest elimination on any of the first days in the ME, and I took the under.

Just hope it's not one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very easy money for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

In 10 minutes, I predict a minimum of 50 bustouts over the 3 day ones.

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

I've played in 4 events so far and witnessed 2 people get the boot on the first hand - not at my table, but right next door.
In 10 minutes, of all 4 events I witnessed multiple people rising from their chairs.
Too many things can happen - including those middle level pros who think they can put pressure on you by going all-in on the first hand, b/c surely you won't call on the first hand, and then the look when you do call is priceless, or so I imagine.
-SC

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

4.3 minutes

Re: How long until the first person is knocked out?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In 10 minutes, I predict a minimum of 50 bustouts over the 3 day ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a pretty good line, Drew. But it's going to suffer from proof problems. The room is going to be chaotic. I'll see if I can note however many I see.

Hopefully, I won't be one of 'em. But I don't think I'll be dumping top set to a one-gap filler board like 8 T Q, unless I know my opponent well.