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-   -   overcall, raise, or fold in big pot? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=286709)

tiltaholic 07-05-2005 03:56 PM

overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Reads- If I remember correctly. UTG is extremely loose-bad preflop and aggressive but not braindead postflop. CO is standard very loose passive donator.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

River: (16.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero ???.

or should i lead the river...

deception5 07-05-2005 04:05 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Definitely don't fold here for one bet with the second nuts. Given the flop action I have a hard time putting either of them on an ace. But since they are both bad players I think it's a definite possibility. Closing the action I like just calling.

SugarPush 07-05-2005 04:14 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
I may be way off base here but with 7 players in the pot I do not like your 4-bet on the flop. You had a raise, two cold callers and a reraise behind you. I would just fold here.

On the river I think that you have to suck in up and make the over-call. You are probably beat by the Ace high straight but who knows. Hold your breath and overcall.

The problem with this hand is that you are hoping to make a potentially second best hand with your flush or your straight. With that in mind I would get out on the flop.

crovax4444 07-05-2005 04:21 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Folding is definetely wrong. It's a big pot, 2nd nut (see above). I also didn't like the cap on the flop.

I'm more curious about the turn. Would it have been proper if u bet out at the turn?

I don't believe that betting out at the end would help, as pretty much all hands you have beaten would fold while hands that dominate you will call/raise. If you bet out at the turn, it may have made the river decision easier

tiltaholic 07-05-2005 04:22 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I may be way off base here but with 7 players in the pot I do not like your 4-bet on the flop. You had a raise, two cold callers and a reraise behind you. I would just fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

by the time i capped, there were only 4 opponents (5 total) and if there were more people in i would have capped faster.

the number of times my baby flush will lose to a higher flush is insignificant compared to the number of times it will win. granted, i will lose a lot of money in a flush over flush situation, but thats the way it goes.

Marquis 07-05-2005 04:23 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
I play the entire hand the same way. I do think you won it though.

deception5 07-05-2005 04:23 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
This is a good cap. 2-card flush over 2-card flush is rare and hero will win the overwhelming majority of the time when there are 3 flush cards on the board. If a 4th flush card falls then you have something to worry about...

deception5 07-05-2005 04:25 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm more curious about the turn. Would it have been proper if u bet out at the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you hope to accomplish with a turn bet?

SugarPush 07-05-2005 04:28 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Hmmm. Let me see if I have this straight. You are value betting with the cap bet because your odds of making the flush are better than the pot odds? Is that what makes the cap bet correct?

Maybe this is a weakness in my game. I don't usually play a flush draw that agressively.

tiltaholic 07-05-2005 04:30 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Folding is definetely wrong. It's a big pot, 2nd nut (see above). I also didn't like the cap on the flop.

I'm more curious about the turn. Would it have been proper if u bet out at the turn?

I don't believe that betting out at the end would help, as pretty much all hands you have beaten would fold while hands that dominate you will call/raise. If you bet out at the turn, it may have made the river decision easier

[/ QUOTE ]

the only reason the river is a tough decision is because it completed the straight draw for any ace. and then UTG wakes back up...

SugarPush 07-05-2005 04:32 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Wouldn't a turn bet here (or a check raise) be for the same purpose as the cap bet on the flop? You have twelve outs if you assume that they are all live. You are getting twelve to on on your bets/raise. This would be a value bet/raise to build the pot.

bozlax 07-05-2005 04:34 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't usually play a flush draw that agressively.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against 1 or 2 opponents, I don't think he would. The payoff, when he makes his hand, with this many players in is huge, though.

davelin 07-05-2005 04:34 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
I'd call but I don't think you're winning. I think raising here would just be spewing.

deception5 07-05-2005 04:36 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm. Let me see if I have this straight. You are value betting with the cap bet because your odds of making the flush are better than the pot odds? Is that what makes the cap bet correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the pot odds don't really affect it, it's more about pot equity. The idea is that 35% of the time you'll make your flush. So if you bet and get 3+ callers you are putting in 25% of the money but winning more than 25% of the time, essentially making money on every bet that goes in.

tiltaholic 07-05-2005 04:37 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm. Let me see if I have this straight. You are value betting with the cap bet because your odds of making the flush are better than the pot odds? Is that what makes the cap bet correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

almost. use pots odds to determine whether you should call a bet. the reason to actively/bet or raise is determined more by pot equity (simply defined, how often will i win the pot by the river). in this case, i will make my flush 35% of the time (assuming for the sake of simplicity i will win when i hit). if i get 2 callers, i am only contributing 33% of the money to the pot, so i have a slight edge (i win 35% but only put in 33%). if i get 3 or more callers, my edge is dramatically higher -- so i am raising for value, but not because of pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a weakness in my game. I don't usually play a flush draw that agressively.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, it is a weakness in your game. flush draws are huge money makers in loose passive microlimit games (and other games too).

bozlax 07-05-2005 04:38 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Once you cap the flop, I'm inclined to lead out the turn. Having done that, I lead the river as well. Oh, and river the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

The way you played it, I think you have to puke in the trashcan, punch the cat and call to close the action. Nobody's folding to one more, here, and I don't think you're winning this enough of the time against 2 opponents to make a raise for value.

deception5 07-05-2005 04:40 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't a turn bet here (or a check raise) be for the same purpose as the cap bet on the flop? You have twelve outs if you assume that they are all live. You are getting twelve 1to on on your bets/raise. This would be a value bet/raise to build the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite it's a little different. Even assuming all of your outs are good (which the gutshot ones are very possibly not), there is only one card to come so you will only hit one of your draws around 25% of the time (20% if you only count the flush outs). For this, you'd need 3-4 callers to break even.

Redd 07-05-2005 04:41 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call but I don't think you're winning. I think raising here would just be spewing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Second that. Was it Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Ace-rag, or neither?

deception5 07-05-2005 04:42 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a weakness in my game. I don't usually play a flush draw that agressively.

[/ QUOTE ]
yes, it is a weakness in your game. flush draws are huge money makers in loose passive microlimit games (and other games too).

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to mention the effect it has on opponents who don't realize this "He is a LAG, capped the flop with 92! I'm calling him down from now on.."

SugarPush 07-05-2005 04:46 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Wow, I think that I just learned something very important that I did not realize before. I am sure that it was obvious but humor me while I restate:

When calling: You compare your call amount to the size of the pot to get pot odds and then you compare that to the number of outs you have to see if you make a call. (leaving out implied odds for simplicity)

When betting on a draw: You compare the number off calls you think that you will get with your number of outs to see if it is a value bet. Note that this does not include tactics such as getting second pair to fold.

This is kind of like pot-odds but is kind of call-odds. Does this make sense?

deception5 07-05-2005 04:51 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Looks about right. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

One thing to really think about when you raise here as well is if you are trying to drive opponents out or build up the pot. In this flush draw example you are trying to build a pot so if the bet came from the player directly to your right you should probably just call (if you face the rest of the field with 2 cold you may end up heads up - which is not what you want). Likewise if the preflop raiser was directly to your left it is often better to check/raise. This is different than if you had top pair weak kicker where if the player to your right bet you might often raise to knock players out.

gharp 07-05-2005 04:51 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
http://www.ociojoven.com/ezimagecata...17-150x500.jpg

"You have just taken your first step into a larger world..."

Yeah, I think you've got it... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

SugarPush 07-05-2005 04:55 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Thanks. I completely misunderstood pot equity until now. This gives me something to think about.

Now if I can only stop raising from UTG with 72o...

Marquis 07-05-2005 04:56 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
For those who think hero lost this hand, what do you put UTG on that has an ace in it? I'm thinking KT, QT and K9 are just as likely here as a hand with an ace.

deception5 07-05-2005 05:00 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. I completely misunderstood pot equity until now. This gives me something to think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

No problem [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Now if I can only stop raising from UTG with 72o...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hrm... well as long as it's not any two it's not terrible [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

bozlax 07-05-2005 05:08 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (probably 8).

tiltaholic 07-06-2005 10:06 PM

results
 
[ QUOTE ]
Reads- If I remember correctly. UTG is extremely loose-bad preflop and aggressive but not braindead postflop. CO is standard very loose passive donator.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

River: (16.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero ???.

or should i lead the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

oops. i forgot to post results.

so, this was one time i was absolutely 100% convinced one of them had an ace. of course, i was wrong. UTG has KJ, CO had QT. i suck.

DasThiem 07-07-2005 09:59 AM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
I think capping the flop is the wrong thing to do here. I call the two extra bets and see what the turn offers me. On the river it would definetly be wrong to fold your hand, i would at least call in this situation.

tiltaholic 07-07-2005 10:12 AM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think capping the flop is the wrong thing to do here.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? do you think these guys are aggressively betting/raising a higher flush draw on the flop?

xenthebrain 07-07-2005 10:14 AM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Why do you cap the flop.
Your only chance of winning the pot is by getting your flush, you don't want to force anyone out.
It will not increase your chances of winning.

check-fold the river.

Edit: just saw it's against 4 opponents, so it's for value...

Edit2: I now see you have the sucker straight, so closing the action in this huge pot is ok IMO.

JerseyTom 07-07-2005 11:08 AM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I may be way off base here but with 7 players in the pot I do not like your 4-bet on the flop. You had a raise, two cold callers and a reraise behind you. I would just fold here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read the rest of this thread... I stopped here.

I agree that the flop cap may be a bit much (it may blow potential donors like MP3 out of the hand), but please, please, please tell me you're joking when you say you'd fold the flop... Why would you ever play any suited cards (other than a suited ace) if this is your thinking? Why draw to anything but the nuts? Why on earth would you want to win as much money as possible with your strong draws?

I have to think that Hero has at least 35% pot equity here with 3 opponents going to the turn (4 if we don't cap the flop and MP3 will call 2 cold). Hero is making money on every bet that goes in on the flop. With no raise preflop, there's no bleeping way I'm giving anyone credit for a big hand here (KK, JJ). Also, flush over flush will happen so infrequently that it will barely eat into the profits you make by playing all your flush draws this aggressively.

Call the flop 3-bet, check-call the turn, check-overcall the river and expect to get shown the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. C'est la poker...


Tom

Bats 07-07-2005 12:38 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot? (beginner question)
 
Because books such as GSIH say 92suited shouldn't be played at all, I would have folded from the small blind. I gather most people here think this is way too tight. Should I be playing hands like that after all?

DeathDonkey 07-07-2005 12:44 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot? (beginner question)
 
Yes given that many limpers, any 2 suited cards are profitable for flopped flushes and flush draws alone. Not to mention the pairs, two pairs, trips, etc. that you can make. Note that this would be less true in a 1/3 blind structure (like at 3/6).

-DeathDonkey

Entity 07-07-2005 12:49 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
I usually don't bet this flop. I certainly don't cap.

As for the river, I think you're behind the vast majority of the time. If you lead you have to fold to a raise so I'd prefer a bet-fold to a check-overcall. I think folding is probably safe here, but it's marginal -- he's just not likely to bet a pair or 2pr often into 3 opponents on this river.

Rob

gopnik 07-07-2005 02:06 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
easy call on the river.
If you can fold to a raise, than leading is probably better.

tiltaholic 07-07-2005 02:26 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I usually don't bet this flop. I certainly don't cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey entity - you don't lead because you are pretty sure the flop won't get checked through w/6 opps, right?

Entity 07-07-2005 02:30 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I usually don't bet this flop. I certainly don't cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey entity - you don't lead because you are pretty sure the flop won't get checked through w/6 opps, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this flop almost never gets checked through. So I check and decide from there.

Rob

Wetdog 07-07-2005 04:17 PM

Re: overcall, raise, or fold in big pot?
 
Tilt &amp; Deception, your answers to SugarPush made the hair in my neck stand up. A whole chapter summed up in 2-3 sentences. Great suff, guys. Puppies and kittens will be spared by the millions and baby Jesus will stop crying.

Thanx millions.


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