QJo 20-40
 

good live game. this hand was interesting.

two weak players limped, i limped next with QhJs, blinds called. 5 of us.

flop is J44 w/ two clubs. blinds checked, utg old man bets, utg+1 raises, i consider folding but 3 bet instead, blinds fold, others call and they are starting to kind of groan like "oh brother what is happening here". old man hesitates big time before calling.

the turn is 6h. checked to me, i bet, they both call. 3 of us still.

the river is the Ac. checked to me and i bet.

comments?

Re: QJo 20-40
 

The big question is the river bet. I doubt a flush would check that river because they should know you don't have an A (unless it's A4). So the remaining question is whether one of them has AJ/KJ. AJ is unlikely unless "weak" in your description of these guys implies passive. And KJ is just one hand out of a number they could have.

So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

The likelihood of chopping makes the river bet -EV IMO.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

If you're going to limp in preflop then you must figure QJ plays ok vs the range of hand these guys have. Given this the flop 3-bet makes sense.

But with two callers on the turn I would adjust that range and check the river.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

"So the remaining question is whether one of them has AJ/KJ. AJ is unlikely unless "weak" in your description of these guys implies passive. And KJ is just one hand out of a number they could have."

by weak i do mean passive. but not weak tight as that would imply they play tight which would be a lie. they were fairly reasonable preflop though.

anyway i do have to fear AJ, but im tied now with KJ on a J44-6-A board.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

"The likelihood of chopping makes the river bet -EV IMO."

it was precisely because i sensed i might be chopping with one or both players that led me to bet the river...

Re: QJo 20-40
 

KJ or JT or J9.

You tie all of them now.

What you don't tie is trip 4's and there is no need to think they have one of those, but at the same time, you don't beat a flush.

This is a real thin value bet (if it is one) and I don't see what hands can call you that you are going to beat. But this value bet may... a tiny percentage of the time make the person with a Jack in his hand lay down... and if he does lay down then there is a huge percentage that he'll go on tilt.

I don't know what I'm talking about.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
"The likelihood of chopping makes the river bet -EV IMO."

it was precisely because i sensed i might be chopping with one or both players that led me to bet the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a good bet because of this.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather he fold those hands.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather he fold those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oops, I should learn to think before opening my mouth. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: QJo 20-40
 

If the players are truly as "weak/loose/passive" as Mike indicated. Nobody, and I mean nobody is folding any Jack here. They won't like the Ace, they won't like the club, but they won't care enough about either to fold. They'll want to see.

Now if Mike's description of sed players wasn't entirely complete/accurate, and they are capable of putting him on a flush draw or AJ, and not wanting to see it, this bet has value. Very much player dependant I guess.

On the other hand, unless one of them has AJ, you probably don't stand to loose anything, so I suppose it can't hurt to try.

lf

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
so I suppose it can't hurt to try.

[/ QUOTE ]

As long as he can fold to a raise, which I don't think he can given the Ace that came on the river. Somebody might pull a move here.

Other than that I agree with you.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

If these guys are fishy enough that you want to play QJo against them then why didn't you raise pre-flop? To me it's a raise or fold situation.

i give up
 

no tying or better hand will fold. No worse hand will call. Scary river card. If this is a good bet can someone help me understand. If I had this hand I would check the river so fast that their heads would spin. Is this a value bet or a semi-bluff repesenting a flush hoping a J will fold.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
"The likelihood of chopping makes the river bet -EV IMO."

it was precisely because i sensed i might be chopping with one or both players that led me to bet the river...

[/ QUOTE ]If you bet, Jx calls, and then Jx folds, you only gain 1/6th of the pot. At least one of them is going to showdown, right? You know that the board sucks for them if all they have is a jack. It sucks for you, too. I'd be thinking I'm losing before thinking about squeezing out some extra value. I would check.

I don't know what your definition of "fairly reasonable" preflop is. I'm finding it difficult to put them on hands, moreso hands that you can beat. But I'm going to take a shot in the dark anyway, cause it is fun:

Old man had kings?
UTG+1 QJ?

result
 

"Is this a value bet or a semi-bluff repesenting a flush hoping a J will fold."

both.

i bet the river, old man called, guy in between said gee i guess i cant call now and folded flashing a J. i flipped my hand up and old man showed 99. guy in between said he had JT.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

"If the players are truly as "weak/loose/passive" as Mike indicated."

i said they were weak but not incredibly loose. if they were very loose passive i wouldve said fish or terrible or A2c.

"On the other hand, unless one of them has AJ, you probably don't stand to lose anything, so I suppose it can't hurt to try."

exactly.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

"Somebody might pull a move here."

no way on earth are one of these guys pulling a move here. they are weak, remember? they are not gonna pull out a checkraise river move.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

"the board sucks for them if all they have is a jack. It sucks for you, too. I'd be thinking I'm losing before thinking about squeezing out some extra value. I would check."

in what way does the board suck for me once they check to me on the river? why on earth would i be thinking im losing? i started to fear i might be losing to KJ or something like A4 on the flop and the turn, but by the time the river comes and theyre still checking i dont see how you can think i should be worried.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

So, old man can't close the action, puts the other guy on the flush, and now really thinks you have a 4. He dumps his hand. UTG+1 shows a Jack and you make an extra 2BB.

Neat idea. If the action can go "check-check-bet-fold-raise-fold" then really neat idea. The problem is that when old men think for a long time and then call, that is their showdown-committal decision right there. Maybe the fact that he did it on the flop means it's not too late, but half the time they already have their chips in their hand, with their eyes closed. And UTG+1 could have the flush - weak players check flushes on the river when aggros like yourself have been betting all the way. This is how they get back at you.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

"weak players check flushes on the river when aggros like yourself have been betting all the way. This is how they get back at you."

believe me i know that but it was a risk i was willing to take.

Re: i give up
 

hi teddy

betting the river is not good.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather he fold those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

what a useless post.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

well played.

Presumably you're betting for value on the river. I check
way too many of these hands on the river, fearing a check-raise from a four or pocket clubs.

But you could get KJ to fold on occasion.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather he fold those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

what a useless post.

[/ QUOTE ]

what a useless post.

hehe...
-Barron

Re: QJo 20-40
 

good river bet...if one of them ever folds a jack you have to bet the river and save 1/3 of the pot for you and the case jack there to split. and those weak players are most likely to fold...

however, given they both called both streets and the UTG guy bet / cold called your 3bet you have to think AJ is a possibility here...QQ/KK if they are extremely weak and loose...but thats more likely seen at much lower limits than you're playing here.

anyways, if i dont fold the flop im 3 betting and playing it exactly the same.

-Barron

Re: result
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Is this a value bet or a semi-bluff repesenting a flush hoping a J will fold."

both.

i bet the river, old man called, guy in between said gee i guess i cant call now and folded flashing a J. i flipped my hand up and old man showed 99. guy in between said he had JT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to mention this earlier, but I thought the bet was best because if the third guy has a jack it's very difficult for him to overcall the river.

Would love to hear Clark\'s take on this hand ...n/m
 

n/m

Re: QJo 20-40
 

you can be pretty sure that no one has a 4 - they raise the turn or do something - but you can't be 100%. You can be near 100% no one has a flush since they would almost have to bet this river - with 2 people calling along, it would be hard for a flush to think they could check raise. Let's add to this a flush should not fear a FH with this board.

Given this, a bet might net you 1/6 of the pot and is only likely to cost you if you are against AJ. The dude with the nines is terrifying - what the hell he could be thinking is quite unclear. That said, if you knew he was this terrifying, you need to give him a chance to be terrifying on the river as well, since it's just not that likely anyone can beat you.

I think I would cold call on the flop and raise the turn here, but what you did was ok.

You'd love to knock out a weaker J or QJ, since you can so easily be tied in the case you are ahead. No one has AK so letting someone call 2 cold is not a big deal on the flop, and you're more likely to knock somone out with a turn raise.

Dan Z.


Dan Z.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

Mike is pretty certain (I'd say with a 90 percent confidence level) that Mike is at least chopping that pot, so that bet Mike makes on the river has merit as Mike knows that any flush draw that makes that river is going to to be bet by his two opponents and not checked down, so Mike has a decent chance to take that whole pot down if Mike believes his opponents are capable of laying down a hand on the river to a pot this big as Mike has clearly reprsented a big hand himself.

Lawrence

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather he fold those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

what a useless post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your useful contribution, though, Tyler.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

Hi Mike,

I think you should take the free card on the turn, as you have little hope of either having the best hand or getting the others to fold.

Having played it the way you did and getting that river, your bet has a decent chance of folding the old man, but what about the last guy? He'll be closing the action for 1 bet with at least a pair in a big pot. Is he really very likely to fold a jack? Your river bet hinges entirely on your answer to this question.

edit: I just realized that you gain if you get a J to fold, but, even having now seen this, I'd say the risk is significant, so you must have some hope of getting them both to fold to make the bet.

Good luck.
Eric

Re: i give up
 

[ QUOTE ]
no tying or better hand will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is classic "they know what I have" thinking. If you look at the action again though, you'll see that anyone holding JT must know that they are tying AT BEST on the river. With the ace hitting, the flush completing, calling for half or even 1/3rd of the pot doesn't look too appealing to the old man. This is the same old man who seemed highly unsure of his hand just two streets ago, before the ultimate scare card hit. He may very well fold a jack.

Good luck.
Eric

Re: result
 

lol. nice result. At the risk of being labeled results-oriented, I think there are a ton of ways that you can save yourself 1/6 of the pot by betting, and not all that many ways you can be behind. It looks like they both have a jack, and they can't possibly both call. I like the bet. Very imaginative.

Good luck.
Eric

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather he fold those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

what a useless post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your useful contribution, though, Tyler.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anytime chachi.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

it would be a spilt pot


i would probably check be hind because im a pussy, but i think that the bet may old out a jack which could cause a split pot

cheers

You really want second rate advice and insulting responses? (n/m)
 

.

Re: QJo 20-40
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I think your river bet is fine. I hope the old man called with his JT/J9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather he fold those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

what a useless post.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are kidding right? It's clear that El D, responded to the orginal poster so that he may see something more clearly. Or, do you not see it?

Re: i give up
 

[ QUOTE ]
hi teddy

betting the river is not good.

[/ QUOTE ]

big moment for me...... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: i give up
 

[ QUOTE ]
hi teddy

betting the river is not good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it great?