Poker is a partial information game
 

I don't miss the lack of action on Pokerstars, but I do miss the clock on occassion. Primary villain in this hand seems very reasonable. The other guy in the hand is unknown. What say you?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (Full Ring, 7 handed) converter

UTG ($192)
MP1 ($238.4)
MP2 ($263.2)
Hero ($295.5)
Button ($203.55)
SB ($302.25)
BB ($127.82)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, Button calls $8, SB (poster) calls $7, BB calls $6, MP1 calls $6.

Flop: ($40) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, Button calls $30, SB calls $30, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($130) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $150</font>

Action's on you.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

Do these people call 3/4 pot bets with AK on the flop?

I probably push but I don't like it.

Edit: Actually, only if I'm relatively sure these two aren't idiots and are trying to push me off this pot.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

Live, I call. Upon 10 minutes of reflection I fold. This is probably why I am struggling so much with NL. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-salloch

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

Weird, but I think I've gotta push.

Edit: I just noticed the double-gutbuster on the flop. Now I think it's closer. But I'm still probably pushing. I just can't see folding a set here without deeper stack.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

odd play for a big hand. I call and expect to see top pair with some redraw or 2 pair.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

Those in favor of a call or push how do you discount these factors:

1. It is highly unlikely that SB is bluffing here (I would put it at %15 of the time max, reasonable?). So he either has a hand that beats hero, or 66.

2. Button is yet to act and was also likely on a draw, but a bigger set is also not out of the question.

3. Given 1 and 2 there's a good chance that the combination of villians hand's have you drawing dead. Is this really a time to push?

4. Just out of curiosity, if you push, what percent of the time do you think you come away with this pot?

5. What factors favor a push here?

-salloch

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

Crappy spot against an unknown. Its particularly crappy as there is a third person to act after you.

What does "reasonable" mean to you? Would he call a raise with 98s (flopping a double gutter, possibly a flush draw as well) out of the SB in this situation? How do you think he'd play something like AsKs?

In any case, his turn bet is almost certainly not a bluff due to the fact that he'd have to push two people out who have both shown interest in the pot so far and it is so large that I think he's protecting against something (probably puts somebody on spades and wants to charge for the draw).

A reasonable player could very likely be playing 98s (not spades) exactly like this. He's made his straight but made it on the less desireable end and doesn't want AA/KK/AQ or spades sticking around to outdraw him. If this is the case, I think he's resigned himself to losing his stack to AK if that's what you (as the preflop raiser) have.


In the moment, I probably push and lose (or suckout) but I think a fold is better. Hopefully, button will look him up for you and you'll get some information for future hands.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

The only hand I'm truly scared of is AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], a set of queens is unlikely.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

This is exactly how I play the double gutter here. However, he could also have QJs or QTs. Or a very weirdly played flush draw himself, although I would put that at 5% probably. Also bluff at 5% probably. Maybe less.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand I'm truly scared of is AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], a set of queens is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

And a set of jacks?

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

Yucky mac Yuck.
I think its almost certain that he has AK, as the chances of you having it are far too high for him to make this bet without it. 98 would be too worried about AK to make such a massively strong bet.

Nope - he has AK - and while I am not sure I can get away from my set - upon reflection - I have to put this guy on AK.

In fact A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would make a WHOLE lot of sense.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

However - K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would make sense too, as would Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I give up.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

Putting myself in the sb's shoes, I play this way with either 89 or with AsK (lots of people will peel one for $30 with 3 clean outs with any AK here).
Looks like either he's made his straight, but fears half the river cards, or he slowplayed his top set and is cursing himself when the J hits - people seem to do this a lot - bet big after a scare card comes.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

I agree that AsKs, KsQs, and QsJs are all well within the realm of possibility (though QJs is a little less likely for someone to call raise with out of position).

In my mind, the evidence against those holdings is this:

Why play them so strong on the turn but so passively on the flop? KQs is a big draw on the turn but it was a pretty big draw on the flop, too (pair+flush draw). It seems weird for villain to play a big draw aggressively with one card to come when he didn't play it aggressively with two. QJs is a little more credible in this department as it can now beat an overpair as well as having outs against a set but reasonable villains don't usually call raises with QJs out of the blinds (even with button's call in front). AsKs might play this passively on the flop but why would it bet so much on the turn? Its got the current nuts with a redraw to the nut flush. The only thing it could possibly be worrying about is the board pairing and it doesn't need to overbet the pot to protect against that.

I think 98s (non spades) is really the only thing a reasonable player plays this way.

Re: Poker is a partial information game
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only hand I'm truly scared of is AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], a set of queens is unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

And a set of jacks?

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to be kidding me.

RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think 98s (non spades) is really the only thing a reasonable player plays this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner! Johnny, what do we have for Ghazban?

The river bricked and the guy flipped 8c9c for the idiot end and a giant pot. I'm not sure I would have played his hand especially with 3 people in the pot and even if he hits his hand both of us could be drawing very live against him.

This is a tough one and also one where some good math can be done. I'll work on it over the next few days from a Bayesian perspective. Regardless, it'll be interesting to see if it's smart to get away from it. I tossed and turned about this hand all night long and I'm not sure given the guys range of hands that a laydown is best. It might be, but I think a little more detective work is required. The biggest mitigating factor might be the presence of the button behind me. It seriously degrades the probability that the SB might be bluffing or semi-bluffing wtih a draw. It only seems logical to me that he has a made hand. With the button still in the hand, the SB's bet seems like nothing other than a big giant hammer.

Oh, and to be completely honest, I NEVER saw the double gutter. Doh!

Thanks for all the replies.