No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Just looking at Pinnacle's odds to reach the final table of the main event and pretty much everyone is under 100-1. Say there's 5000 people, are these just rediculously low odds? The only "relative" value I see is Chau Giang 90-1, Andy Bloch 120-1. but if they are all off by a mile then it's not much of a difference between that and Ivey's 38-1.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

I'd say it should be between 250 and 300-1 for the very best players, ranging up as far as 5000-1 for the deadest money. I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably, and if Dan Harrington makes the final table again, I'll personally eat my copies of Harrington on Hold'em Volumes 1 and 2, live online. If it happens be prepared for Mason to announce the impending release of Harrington on Hold'em volume 642.

Regards Mack

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

the deadest money have less than 1 million to one shot. Some people will call all their chips with 10 hi, hoping for runner runner

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Thats true, but no one is going to lay that price, anyway what the diffence between 0.02% and 0.0001% between friends. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Mack

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

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I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably

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doesn't this mean he has roughly the same chance as a random player? i'll take this bet.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

If I was running a book, which I am not, I would be able to take your bet, however I can't afford to accept this liability and as such it would be unfair of me to take your bet. Just out of interest, what odds would you consider as correct for Mr Hellmuth?

Regards Mack

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Check the odds on betfair - they are offered by members on both sides of the coin, not by the book itself.

If you think 100-1 against for the top pros is way too much, you can lay the following pros:

Doyle and Chan at 99:1
Daniel, Hansen, Helmuth, Lindgren and Harrington at 64:1
Ivey and Lederer at 54:1 (!)
John Juanda and Devilfish at 79:1
Luske at 94:1

Of course, you'll have to put up a ton of cash to take these bets....
(these are all "to make final table" btw)

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Realistically based on the field and amount of luck still needed on the coin flips. 300-1 minimum odds with most players at 600-1 even a good player

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

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I'd say it should be between 250 and 300-1 for the very best players, ranging up as far as 5000-1 for the deadest money. I'd rate Hellmuth as 600-1 probably, and if Dan Harrington makes the final table again, I'll personally eat my copies of Harrington on Hold'em Volumes 1 and 2, live online. If it happens be prepared for Mason to announce the impending release of Harrington on Hold'em volume 642.

Regards Mack

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LOL. The thought of you eating both Harrington's books live online is busting me up. Come on Dan I wanna see this.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Just to clarify after I finish eating I'm going straight onto Amazon to order them again, seriously good stuff. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Mack

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

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Realistically based on the field and amount of luck still needed on the coin flips. 300-1 minimum odds with most players at 600-1 even a good player

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C'mon, at 6k entries 600-1 assumes no better than random. I think I'd take any name pro at 300-1.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

This is why you are not a bookie. You would lose all your money. Hellmuth at 600-1? You are saying he is simply even with the field? What is wrong with you? He is easily in the top 30 to win. I think the odds being laid are very good and none of you can count. The very best players have a much better chance than average, easily 5 or 6 times, I think the very very elite have as much as 20x the chance of an average player of making the final table. The edge in a multi-day no limit event is HUGE.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

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This is why you are not a bookie. You would lose all your money. Hellmuth at 600-1? You are saying he is simply even with the field? What is wrong with you? He is easily in the top 30 to win. I think the odds being laid are very good and none of you can count. The very best players have a much better chance than average, easily 5 or 6 times, I think the very very elite have as much as 20x the chance of an average player of making the final table. The edge in a multi-day no limit event is HUGE.

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I do okay, I won't take a bet at 600-1 on an event where I can get no turnover because I can't cover a payout easily should it come in, seems eminently sensible to me. As regards to the best being 20 times more likely to make the final table I disagree, but its purely an opinion, I suspect a top pro is worth 3 buyins at a maximum. Also I am expecting around 8000 players in the main event, this could also be way out, my estimate for Hellmuth is based on his perceived inability to cope with large fields (multi thousand) full of less than accomplished players. Also again I ask what odds would you give of Hellmuth reaching the final table.

Regards Mack

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

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Realistically based on the field and amount of luck still needed on the coin flips. 300-1 minimum odds with most players at 600-1 even a good player

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C'mon, at 6k entries 600-1 assumes no better than random. I think I'd take any name pro at 300-1.

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I agree with you.. I would say it's a good bet, that atleast one Top 200 Pro, is going to make the final table.

Even with last year's huge field,.. Harrington (i'd say he qualified for Top 100) made the final table. Josh Arieh could have been made a case as well borderline..

If you gave me 300 to 600:1 on all the top pro's, I would scoop up the Top 200 and expect to cash in atleast once, maybe 2 or 3 times if the cards fall the right way.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

I have a feeling that there are a handful of players who are a good bet at 100-1, even...but I'm not sure I know who those players are. We really don't have a good sample of 6000 player tournaments.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

I'm really puzzled by most people's take on this. Is poker pure luck? Everyone talks about 6000 people.. so what? Does Joe Blow who won a shootout on Stars have the same chance as Doyle does in a tournament? I think not

I personally have money on a few pros to make the final table and a few to win the whole thing. Most are only $1 bets for fun, but I have put more on a few pros because I believe they have a good chance of doing it.

Is it luck Johnny Chan just won his 10th bracelet? And yes, I have money on him in the ME although I do consider him a longshot.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

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I'm really puzzled by most people's take on this. Is poker pure luck? Everyone talks about 6000 people.. so what? Does Joe Blow who won a shootout on Stars have the same chance as Doyle does in a tournament? I think not

I personally have money on a few pros to make the final table and a few to win the whole thing. Most are only $1 bets for fun, but I have put more on a few pros because I believe they have a good chance of doing it.

Is it luck Johnny Chan just won his 10th bracelet? And yes, I have money on him in the ME although I do consider him a longshot.

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Nobody is saying it's pure luck (well, not most of us). 6000 people simply means that an average person in the field has a 600-1 chance of making the final table. Obviously, the professionals are better than that!

The question is: by how much? Obviously, they're significantly better, and 300-1 would be too much to give a lot of them. 200-1 would still make a lot of them a good buy - they're going to get to the final table more than 3 times more than their share.

I said some players would be worth taking at 100-1, but we might not know exactly who (and thus, it would be hard to pick players to take at that price). But we can make some pretty educated guesses, and Chan would be a good guess.

But how much lower do you want to go? Do you really think anyone is, say, only 25-1 to make the final table? That would mean they are 24 times more likely to make the final table than the average player. It's not that we think these things are pure luck, but that anyone is a longshot to make the final table.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

http://www.bet365.com/home/default.asp


danny is the favourite at 20/1. raymer's getting 66/1. dolly is getting 50/1

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Isnt betting on someone else gambling ehhh...perverse to say the least?

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Since I wasn't able to get a piece of anyone at the main event, I took a shot with $100. I bet $10 each on 10 pros to make the final table. All of the pros I picked had odds at 100 to 175-1. I don't recall the odds for each and I know that these guys aren't all the best, but they are players who have been hot or who I enjoy rooting for.

Darden
Cunningham
Forrest
Raymer
Tony Ma
Arieh
Habib
Watkinson
Tomko
Luske

Wanted to bet on Sklansky but there were no odds for him :-(

Whether this is a good bet...I don't know...but it's a way for me to get some action on the WSOP.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Pionniacle has there odds here Link

Daniel Negreanu is a 243 to 1 right now and is the highest
Phil ivey is second at 301 to 1

oops that is to win the whole thing.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

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Since I wasn't able to get a piece of anyone at the main event, I took a shot with $100. I bet $10 each on 10 pros to make the final table. All of the pros I picked had odds at 100 to 175-1. I don't recall the odds for each and I know that these guys aren't all the best, but they are players who have been hot or who I enjoy rooting for.

Darden
Cunningham
Forrest
Raymer
Tony Ma
Arieh
Habib
Watkinson
Tomko
Luske

Wanted to bet on Sklansky but there were no odds for him :-(

Whether this is a good bet...I don't know...but it's a way for me to get some action on the WSOP.

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I can't imagine a final table without at least one of those players. Except luske. He will bust out.

All you need is like an 8% chance that ONE of them makes it, and your move is +EV.

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

Mike Caro writes about what the real odds of the best player in the ME winning the ME are at this link. For those who do not want to look the link he says 1,639 to 1 against the best player winning the event. He explains a bit further on the link. Maybe these odds can help predicte the actual making the final table odds

http://www.poker1.com/absolutenm/tem...7&zoneid=2

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

I saw on sports betting andy bloch getting 250-1 making final table and chip reese 225-1 these are the best odds ive seen still seems bad and while i think mike cairo is to high he does seem about right. but basically i think its simple pros are 3x the avg buy in about id say avg player needs 3-1 chip lead to beat lets say a whose avg pro um maybe parhard freidman and would need about 4-1 to beat a negrenu berry lvl player

Re: No pro is worth 100-1 to reach final table are they?
 

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but basically i think its simple pros are 3x the avg buy in about id say avg player needs 3-1 chip lead to beat lets say a whose avg pro um maybe parhard freidman and would need about 4-1 to beat a negrenu berry lvl player

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This is false. Assuming a reasonable blinds relative to stack sizes, no one should be more than a 60-40 underdog in a heads-up match as the inferior player can just move-in every single time (see TPFAP by Sklansky).