Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

Two hands today since I missed a bunch while in Vegas.

Read on villain: 46.9/.42/1.00 after 940 hands with a preflop cold call % of 28.26%.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: I am MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, MP3 calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (7.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
I check, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, I call.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

It's hard to comment on this hand without any player reads but if villain is aggressive then I play it the same way.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

As I said to Jason over IM:

"seems pretty standard. both bets are standard for me and on the river he can have missed diamonds or some wierd backdoor draw that he now thinks he can get you to fold on the river with, so i call."

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

46 VPIP with 1 aggro usually means he's pretty aggressive -- I like to call the river here too (The flop and turn bets are standard -- for me, anyway)

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

zzzzzzz, nice hand.

-SmileyEH

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

This is how I play these kind of hands so I hope it's the right line.

It makes sense since on the flop and turn you are trying to win the pot and may also have the best hand. Betting the river doesn't seem right as he won't call with worse hands and won't fold better hands.

I guess the only thing to think about is calling the river bet or not, but I'd tend to think you're good here often enough. Folding for one bet on the river against a guy who has shown no strength and could easily be bluffing can not be a big mistake if it is at all.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
zzzzzzz, nice hand.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I was really hoping for an elaboration of thoughts beyond this, perhaps including an attempt to analyze how often we're good here.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

boringly standard. I wouldn't be able to come up with an exact figure as to how many times that we are good here, but for this opponent and this board, I think we are good here enough to call this

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

This type of opponent is somewhat aggressive and is precisely the type that I would think would bet a missed draw. That said, I don't think this hand is "boringly standard." I only call the bet because the pot is so large.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

I'm responding blind.

I think the diamond flush draw and wheel draw possibilities probably make it worth a call at the end (though even if I knew Villain had been chasing a flush, I'd be worried about that jack on the river). An aggression factor of 1 isn't really that passive for someone as loose as Villain, and he's probably had some success with river bluffs in the past.

When I call with ace-high on the river, I usually don't win. But I win often enough that I wonder sometimes if I should make such calls more frequently.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As I said to Jason over IM:

"seems pretty standard. both bets are standard for me and on the river he can have missed diamonds or some wierd backdoor draw that he now thinks he can get you to fold on the river with, so i call."

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fine with the call.

I do think it's unfortunate that the jack hits some backdoor draws, though (89, J9, J8).

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

When I call with ace-high on the river, I usually don't win.

Haha yeah I hope not. But we should win one time in five or so. Certainly enough to make it +EV as long as the villian is capable of bluffing. It is hard to analyze the exact EV of a call or fold since we don't know how often the villian will bluff. You pretty much have to use your best judgement when calling on the end and not let the outcome (if you lose) alter your decision making in the future. Just because you get shown something this time doesn't mean that it was a bad call.

Brad

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

here's the convo i had with Jason online:

sickmanning: perfect
sickmanning: i do this about 55 times a day
sickmanning: results?
Jasonish712: irrelevant, right?
sickmanning: pretty much
sickmanning: get used to doing it a lot
Jasonish712: (MHIG, but it felt so dirty)
sickmanning: are you kidding
Jasonish712: no
sickmanning: if you don't know that liune, we might have problems
Jasonish712: okay, talk to me
sickmanning: that hand was amazingly standard
Jasonish712: oh my
Jasonish712: then i'm posting it
sickmanning: you're seriously sayign you don't do that?
Jasonish712: :-(
sickmanning: like thatw as the first time?
Jasonish712: like a virgin touched for the very first time
sickmanning: wow
Jasonish712: i guess i just don't get it :-(
sickmanning: omg
sickmanning: we need t talk thenm

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

ok here are my thoughts on the hand, and keep in mind this is pretty much exactly how i think when playing 30-60 on party.

i raise MP1 with AQ, guy coldcalls. i now put him on any 2 cards.

flop is t35, i bet, guy calls. i put him on any 2 cards
turn is a 7. i bet, guy calls. now i put him on 2 cards higher than a 7, or a pair
river is a j, i check to induce a bet and will call instantly. he bets, i call.

sometimes he'll have a pair, most times he won't. i profit

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
here's the convo i had with Jason online:

sickmanning: perfect
sickmanning: i do this about 55 times a day
sickmanning: results?
Jasonish712: irrelevant, right?
sickmanning: pretty much
sickmanning: get used to doing it a lot
Jasonish712: (MHIG, but it felt so dirty)
sickmanning: are you kidding
Jasonish712: no
sickmanning: if you don't know that liune, we might have problems
Jasonish712: okay, talk to me
sickmanning: that hand was amazingly standard
Jasonish712: oh my
Jasonish712: then i'm posting it
sickmanning: you're seriously sayign you don't do that?
Jasonish712: :-(
sickmanning: like thatw as the first time?
Jasonish712: like a virgin touched for the very first time
sickmanning: wow
Jasonish712: i guess i just don't get it :-(
sickmanning: omg
sickmanning: we need t talk thenm

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely pwned. Now all we need to do is teach him to like the Beatles...

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
boringly standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't someone post something about hands like these?

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
boringly standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't someone post something about hands like these?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I don't know. I think it's okay to let people know (or remind them) that it's okay to call with ace-high sometimes.

I should probably do it more often than I do.

And as an experienced cold-caller/floater, this Villain quite likely fires with some frequency on the river as a bluff, perhaps with some success.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

The flop bet might not be standard. By that I mean I will sometimes check here, depending mostly on the WSD and aggression factor of the player behind me. If the flop were less dry, I probably wouldn't bet into 3 opponents.

The rest of the hand is pretty standard for me though, for the same reasons that have already been posted.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

I like it.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]

sometimes he'll have a pair, most times he won't. i profit

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think he has no pair here over 50% of the time? I think a call is +EV, but I don't think he doesn't have a pair "most" of the time.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

Good hand... good reminder of what to do with that holding

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

you don't need to be right 50% of the time...only about 1 time in 8...

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
you don't need to be right 50% of the time...only about 1 time in 8...

[/ QUOTE ]

He knows, but the original quote said "most times he won't have a pair," i.e. Hero wins this pot &gt;50% of the time.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

have u ever seen him bluff the riv?

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
boringly standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't someone post something about hands like these?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't have posted it if I thought it was standard. You might think it's standard, but can you explain why? Probably not.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

I think an important question to ask is: Is the flush draw necessary to make the river call correct? If you think it's not necessary, would your answer change if your opponent was a TAG?

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
zzzzzzz, nice hand.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I was really hoping for an elaboration of thoughts beyond this, perhaps including an attempt to analyze how often we're good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Often enough I would think. Something like 1 in 6 seems reasonable.

-SmileyEH

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was really hoping for an elaboration of thoughts beyond this, perhaps including an attempt to analyze how often we're good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a very very good read (&gt; 1k hands WATCHED, not just played with), this is exceedingly difficult.

With the information we have, this is essentially impossible.

To come up with any analysis we have to make estimates about:

- His CCing range
- What he calls the flop with
- What he calls the turn turn
- What he bets the river with when checked to

When you are making so many estimates based on so little information, the analysis wont have much meaning.


But.. that doesnt mean that we dont think it is highly likely that his analysis will show that calling the river is +EV. Because it will.


(I think the fact that my first idea was to mention quantum mechanics in this reply means that I've been spending WAY too much time in S/M/P).

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

Haha, I've totally used wave forms collapsing as an analogy for my phsyics friends when describing hand ranges.

-SmileyEH

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Haha, I've totally used wave forms collapsing as an analogy for my phsyics friends when describing hand ranges.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you should so get into posting here. It will easily be the best forum on here if it takes off.

(Also seems to be very UMass heavy)

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]

To come up with any analysis we have to make estimates about:

- His CCing range
- What he calls the flop with
- What he calls the turn turn
- What he bets the river with when checked to

When you are making so many estimates based on so little information, the analysis wont have much meaning

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are overstating the difficulty. Based on his CC percentage, we can make some reasonable guesses about his range of CC hands. In this case, all the standard good hands plus pretty much any two (or alot of) suited cards seems about right.

Given this, we could count the number of made hands versus draws that he could have. I don't want to do the numbers, but if we can agree that he might have played pretty much any two diamonds this way, it's not hard to see that the river call is correct. Of course, we'd like to know that he would bet a busted draw here, but the majority of players will, so it's a reasonable assumption.

gm

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
boringly standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't someone post something about hands like these?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't have posted it if I thought it was standard. You might think it's standard, but can you explain why? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]


aight, I'll go into more detail since I was the one who wrote boringly standard. Let's start for one, you were pretty sure this was standard, we know that just by the title of the thread alone, plus you had no problem letting klepton post the AIM convo that you had over it. Okay rant on that aside, here's why I think its standard:

Our opponenent plays a lot of hands, and is aggressive post flop for someone who plays almost half of their hands. THis is a perfect spot for someone like him to make a bluff at the river with a drawing hand that missed. I think with his ag factor that you would've been raised by him at some point in the hand if he had caught a pair, so either he rivered you, or he's bluffing trying to get you to fold your AQ UI. I'm not really raggin on you for posting a standard hand, its just that sometimes we need to know that what we did is a good standard play that makes sense on every street. you played it fine Jason

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

I agree with most of this.

But, I feel the most difficult thing to determine is his calling vs raising hands on the flop and turn.

For players, for example, play flush draws more aggresively than pairs here. For many, its the opposite.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You might think it's standard, but can you explain why? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]

PF Raise - no brainer.

On the flop you have two overcards in a decent size pot and were the pre-flop aggressor. You are definitely not folding, so it is best to bet to maximize your chances of winning. You want to try and knock out hands like Q5, Q3, KJ, KQ, QJ, someone holding a single [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (in case you catch the Ace[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and maybe anybody holding a 2 or a 4 (although an argument could be may that you don't mind them calling b/c if they do pick up a gutshot on the turn, they probably won't have odds to chase).

On the turn, you are HU on a fairly textured board against an somewhat agressive opponent who has done nothing but call thus far. No reason to think your hand is not best, bet to protect it.

On the river, no draws got there except for the unlikely 98, so (as everyone else has pointed out) you check to him to induce a bluff.
If the board had been less textured, and my opponent was capable of folding a pair here, I would fire a 3rd barrel on the river.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]

aight, I'll go into more detail since I was the one who wrote boringly standard. Let's start for one, you were pretty sure this was standard, we know that just by the title of the thread alone, plus you had no problem letting klepton post the AIM convo that you had over it. Okay rant on that aside, here's why I think its standard:

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a '?' mark in the subject and you don't know my feelings on whether or not I was okay with the AIM conversation being posted.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really raggin on you for posting a standard hand, its just that sometimes we need to know that what we did is a good standard play that makes sense on every street.

[/ QUOTE ]

I posted it because I want to understand better why the action is correct.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]


There is a '?' mark in the subject and you don't know my feelings on whether or not I was okay with the AIM conversation being posted.



[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, it was an assumption, and I didn't mean anything by it. I'm really not trying to be a dick, I think its just coming off that way.

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely pwned. Now all we need to do is teach him to like the Beatles...

[/ QUOTE ]

Can it be taught? Whats wrong with Jason...

PS: Just folded 77 to a raise when I was next to act, MP2 - no limpers. Flop comes 77. This thread s bad luck for me, but I like the river with an A and a good kicker anyway.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

this is standard for me also

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is standard for me also

[/ QUOTE ]

But can you say why?

Re: Daily Hand Post: \"Amazingly Standard\" AQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is standard for me also

[/ QUOTE ]

But can you say why?

[/ QUOTE ]

"why"