Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

Villain in the hand is Aaron Katz. He limps from UTG and I limp on the button for 400 with K9o. I have 20-25k in chips and Aaron has me covered. Both blinds are very passive, so I wasn't worried about it getting raised behind me. Flop is K57 with 2 diamonds. Checked to me, I bet 950, both blinds fold, and Aaron calls. Turn is the 3s, putting 2 spades out there. Aaron checks, I bet 2300, he check raises for 4500 more. I call. River is the 9d, He bets 10,000, I call. Comments?

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

I think he's got a smaller two pair - I'd make the call - he's not playing to me like he's made a flush -

RB

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

i dont think he'd open limp with a suited ace unless it was a strong ace, which i think would ask for an open raise.
i think im calling this. l
ooks like maybe hes got kings with a missed spade draw or a suited connector of spades, but i cant see that being limped in EP (although u did say the blinds were passive so i assume table was a lil passive too, making him able to get away with it)
nonetheless, i have no idea who Katz is and how he plays, but i still like the call

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

My biggest question is why not fold the turn? You've got tpwk and have shown strength and now get check-raised. Villain likely has tp with a better kicker,two pair, a set or maybe even the straight. Even if your hand improves you can't bet it with much confidence and aren't likely to get called by a hand that you beat.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

I like it. I'd say a spade suited conector 78, 89 something that looks like a good draw on the flop a great draw on the turn and crap, hope he folds on the river giving me credit for a flush.

If you have 20k I would have just put in my case 2000 in on the river.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

[ QUOTE ]

If you have 20k I would have just put in my case 2000 in on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, that is pretty pointless. If hero wins the hand, the 2k extra he gets is insignificant. But the 2k he saves if he looses will still leave him in the game with 5BB, instead of joining the railbirds.

I don't know Aaron Katz, and action in this hand is obviously player dependant. In general, I will say it is a huge risk for hero to run into a set in this situation.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say a spade suited conector 78, 89 something that looks like a good draw on the flop a great draw on the turn and crap, hope he folds on the river giving me credit for a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was thinking this, but would Katz limp with this UTG. thats damn early with a suited connector with teh rest of the table to act. depends on what type of player he is, but not many do this UTG.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

[ QUOTE ]
My biggest question is why not fold the turn? You've got tpwk and have shown strength and now get check-raised. Villain likely has tp with a better kicker,two pair, a set or maybe even the straight. Even if your hand improves you can't bet it with much confidence and aren't likely to get called by a hand that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree.

given that you know his name, i'm guessing you have some opinion of villain's play?

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

smells like a small set to me, 55 or 33. But you gave his name so you probably know his play better than me. He may have limp with small suited connectors and hit 2 of them, thus your 2 pair is good.

I'd fold.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

On the flop there is 1600 in the pot. It is checked to Gavin and he bets 950. When Gavin is called by UTG, I would say that UTG either has a diamond draw, a K himself, or setting him up for a bluff later with a set or AA. When a 3 comes out on the turn, Gavin is check-raised. Kind of seems risky that a guy would be check-raising on the turn in this spot on a flush draw. (Right now, the nuts would be 46 - unlikely given that this hand was played UTG so I would probably dismiss it.) So most likely UTG either has a K, AA or maybe hit a set with 55 or 77. On the river a 9 of diamonds comes and UTG bets 10K. If he was on the flush draw, he just hit. It is 10K to call to win 22100. So Gavin was getting 2.2 to 1. Now let's look at the range of hands and probabilities for UTG (my best estimate):

Set - 25% (the betting action sure resembles a slow-played flopped set)
Pair of Ks - 20% (He might limp with AK, KQ; KJ or worse probably fold, but with AK or KQ wouldn't you bet out the flop in an un-raised pot against 3 opponents facing a flush draw?)
Flush - 20% (sure doesn’t seem likely)
AA - 20% (this is PL, so UTG would likely limp here with AA hoping to re-raise but was never given the opportunity – then he checked the flop to see if he could trap money in the pot – a debatable play with 2 suited cards on board facing 3 opponents)
Straight - 5% (very unlikely)
Smaller 2 pair - 5% (very unlikely)
All out Bluff - 5% (very unlikely)

Now let's do the math:
(0 x .25) + (1 x .2) + (0 x .2) + (1 x .2) + (0 x .05) + (1 x .05) + (1 x .05) = 0.50

Thus I give Gavin a 50% chance of winning the pot. The pot is 2.2 to 1 so I think the river call is probably correct.

I do think that Gavin's move is on the turn is questionable however. When Gavin got called on the flop he had to think that his opponent either had a higher K, a set/AA, or an unlikely flush draw. Most of that range of hands has him beat.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

I'm not 100% sold on the turn bet. I can see wanting to protect your hand because the board is double suited. But I think it will put you in a crappy situation no matter what the river is.

If the river completes a flush and you are bet into...you?
If the river is a brick and you are bet into...you???
Same problem if its is checked to you.

So I'd check the turn in order to keep the pot small. This way if my hand isn't best. I won't lose a truck load of chips and I will get a showdown most of the time. Here I'm guessing Aaron Katz will bet out with any hand that beats your K9. But since the pot didn't grow on the turn it will be a bet you can call.


Hopefully this isn't took weak....but I'm not seeing you making much more money on this hand if your hand is ahead

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

I hate your turn bet. Yes there is a flush draw or 2 out there, but your hand is so marginal you need to excercise some pot control. Since there are a handful of draws out there your not gonna know if he hits anyway. So, check the turn behind and plan on calling a river bet.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

I'd push.

I think AA is most consistent with all rounds of betting. I'd put him all in on the river. He can't expect that 9 to help you.

AA-6 ways (consistent, flop, turn c/r, river)
KK- 1 way (consistent but unlikely)
AK - 8 ways (speculative for flop check on coordinated board)
55,77 - 6 ways (consistent, flop, turn c/r, river)
AQ,AJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 ways - (not consistent turn c/r, or river bet(too big))

I think hero is probably ahead by a 2:1 and there's no point in saving any chips.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hate your turn bet. Yes there is a flush draw or 2 out there, but your hand is so marginal you need to excercise some pot control. Since there are a handful of draws out there your not gonna know if he hits anyway. So, check the turn behind and plan on calling a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

definitely agree 100% here. i want a showdown and would hate to be checkraised here.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

I was going to post this line but I thought maybe I was retarded. Glad to see I am learning.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hate your turn bet. Yes there is a flush draw or 2 out there, but your hand is so marginal you need to excercise some pot control. Since there are a handful of draws out there your not gonna know if he hits anyway. So, check the turn behind and plan on calling a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

definitely agree 100% here. i want a showdown and would hate to be checkraised here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad a few people picked up on the part of the hand that I thought was really in question. I check the turn here about 99% of the time. My bet was part of the reason I didn't lay this hand down. I was very deliberate in making it and had a tough time deciding whether I wanted to bet or not. I thought Aaron picked up on this and was putting a move on me with a spade draw or a small pair. Working through the hands that beat me on the turn, none of them made sense. I couldn't see him doing this with AA at the table we were at(which was aggressive when folded around, but very passive when someone open limped). I couldn't put him on 64 UTG, KQ, K7, K5, K3 seem very unlikely the way this hand was played and playing a set this way is quite dangerous b/c I'm not guaranteed to bet the turn. I had been checking alot of turn cards with a variety of different holdings and certainly would have checked the turn with a diamond draw. Anyways, he showed me black 44 and I won. Anybody think pushing the turn is the best play(This is what Aaron thought I should do["You played that hand all wrong kid"])

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

Wow.

I don't like pushing the turn because I think it lets Aaron fold everything that you beat too easily. After you call the turn I think Aaron could bet all his hands on the river. Were you prepared to call T10,000 if you did not improve?

Put another way, if you push on the river you lose all your chips when you are beat and win none extra when you have the best hand. If you call, then he should bet both the best and the worst hand whether you improve or not.

I can't believe he made a move on you for his stack.

I still would have pushed when the 9 came down. Did you consider it?

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

No, I never considered pushing when the 9 came. If he has me beat, just calling leaves me with some chips to play with.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

Gavin-what's the reasoning behind limping in with the trash hand--I'm guessing just to mix it up some?

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

[ QUOTE ]
Gavin-what's the reasoning behind limping in with the trash hand--I'm guessing just to mix it up some?

[/ QUOTE ]

He had alot of chips, I had alot of chips, I like to play hands with position, looked like a good spot to jump in there and get some of his chips

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Gavin-what's the reasoning behind limping in with the trash hand--I'm guessing just to mix it up some?

[/ QUOTE ]

He had alot of chips, I had alot of chips, I like to play hands with position, looked like a good spot to jump in there and get some of his chips

[/ QUOTE ]

mission accomplished

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

Why did you decide to bet the turn?

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

2 flush draws, allows me to get away from it if he raises and I feel he has the best hand, perhaps he folds KT or KJ

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

i think 2 flush draws makes me want to check more. double the cards can come to make the river hellish for me to play in a big pot.

Re: Hand #2 from 5000 PLHE
 

If your turn bet allows you to get away if he raises, then why did you call his check raise with a pair of kings, crap kicker? I am definitely on the side of checking behind on the turn unless you had a strong read on this player.