Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

ok, so last time, in that AJ post, i talked about folding on the bubble with AJs to a pusher who you KNOW is shoving a lot of hands. this guy is a solid player, and has been playing a very good bubble.. likely shoving a LOT of hands in this spot. so.. with that in mind.. heres the hand [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

#Game No : 2251304150
***** Hand History for Game 2251304150 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13340584 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Thursday, June 23, 14:34:35 EDT 2005
Table Table 12343 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: kb_33 ( $1360 )
Seat 5: cgcaughran ( $815 )
Seat 7: IHateUBaller ( $6100 )
Seat 2: Itachi86 ( $1725 )
Trny:13340584 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Itachi86 [ Ah Qs ]
IHateUBaller raises [1100].
kb_33 folds.
IHateUBaller: oops
IHateUBaller: meant to shove
Your time bank will become active in less than 20 seconds. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Itachi86 will be using his time bank for this hand.
Itachi86 ????????

holla

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

His pushing range may be wide, but what's his range on raising to 1100 and then saying "Oops, meant to shove"?

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]
His pushing range may be wide, but what's his range on raising to 1100 and then saying "Oops, meant to shove"?

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually dont think that meant anything. i do that sometimes, the slider doesnt go all the way.. etc. ignore that, lol. holla

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]
His pushing range may be wide, but what's his range on raising to 1100 and then saying "Oops, meant to shove"?

[/ QUOTE ]

His pushing range may be wide, but what's his range on raising to 1100 UTG against a BB that's likely pot committed?

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

Ok, Fold it. Terrible call. I reserve the right to run ICM and change my mind.

I sometimes don't slide all the way when I meant to, but I never chat about it.

edit: Ok, ICM HATES calling here.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

Pretty broad here, I'm guessing. Even if he doubles up the shorty, he's still way ahead of three roughly even short stacks and should still be able to exert himself quite easily.

EDIT: I voted call, though I haven't run any math on it. I think we're going to be at least 60% to win the pot, frequently more, and I think we stand to gain a fair amount of equity by doubling up in this instance, enough to make 60% a good enough frequency of winning. (EDIT AGAIN: If you took about 1000 from big stack and gave it to me, I probably fold instead.)

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

I voted fold. Let the shortie who is sittin in the BB behind you call...

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

seems like an easy call to me. Blinds are big enough and you could probably wait the shortie out, but you just said the guy is pushing all the time, and likely has any 2 cards. Why not call as what is most likely a 60/40 if not more of a favorite? Aren't you playing for first place?

If I'm way off I'd like to understand why.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

As 2nd chip stack, I fold.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

Oh BTW if he's pushing any two you'd rather have AJs (or ATs) than AQo. You know that though so why am I posting this...

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

I can't choose either one, although I lean towards calling because the fold option should say "fold, because ICM says so."

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]

edit: Ok, ICM HATES calling here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range did you assume for the initial raiser?

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

Try any two.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

If the short stack had just doubled up I'd call this instantly but as it stands I pretend I didn't see my hand and let it go.

I'd prolly call with TT+ here though, I just think you are too short to let that go and TT should have his hand dominated a vast majority of the time.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

I think it's clear fold...

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

Also this IHateUballer guy is an idiot, everytime I make some really obvious play against him and he has a good hand and I get lucky he starts cursing me out like a moron and telling me how stupid I am. Its happened a few times now on different accts of mine.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

I don't have Eastbay's tool, so that will take me a moment. In the meantime, another question: if he's pushing any two, are you assuming that 50% of the time BB will call and win, the other 50% of the time that BB will call and lose?

EDIT: Okay, it looks like you have ~34% equity when you call and win, and on average an equity of ~25% when you fold, assuming he's pushing with any two. In this situation, the numbers seem to suggest that it's a reasonably close fold. A tighter range increases your average equity when you fold, since SB is less likely to win, although the range has to tighten up pretty substantially to seriously diminish your winning chances. Nevertheless, since I think the range probably will be tighter than any two, this probably is a fold, according to ICM. That surprises me.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]

I think it's clear fold...

[/ QUOTE ]

explain?

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]

Also this IHateUballer guy is an idiot, everytime I make some really obvious play against him and he has a good hand and I get lucky he starts cursing me out like a moron and telling me how stupid I am. Its happened a few times now on different accts of mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahaha, his aka is worldsgrtst. hes quite solid actually. but then again, what do i know about being solid. holla

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

I did it on Eastbay's Program and it doesn't allow for the BB to call. I don't think the BB will call anywhere near 50% of the time, if you call. He's gonna just hope you bust out. Given that he will have a very tight calling range, IMO, I don't think his calls are going to help you.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did it on Eastbay's Program and it doesn't allow for the BB to call. I don't think the BB will call anywhere near 50% of the time, if you call. He's gonna just hope you bust out. Given that he will have a very tight calling range, IMO, I don't think his calls are going to help you.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I meant when you fold, when I think his call is near guaranteed. Then assuming the initial pusher pushes with any two, half the time SB busts, leaving you with ~29% ICM equity, and half the time the SB doubles up, leaving you with ~21% ICM equity. So on average you have about 25% when you fold.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

If you really want to deeply analyze the hand you can go into this, but it's not really very close at all.

First off, UTG may very well not push with any two. He's pushing into the very small stack's BB and should know he is fairly likely to get called.

I think if Raptor holds AKs or TT-QQ it will be much more debatable.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

Your hand just isnt good enough to call off all your chips on the bubble when both stacks are shorter than you and are desperate. I'm sure you aren't going to win the showdown the % of times you need to to make this call correct.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

easy call for the following reasons:
- he's been pushing alot so i think there's a good chance that he's got a questionable hand
- AQo is premium shorthanded and I cant afford to wait around in hopes of a better hand than this while the shorties battle it out
- There's 1500 chips in the pot which will double me up
- His stack is triple mine and i want first..not second.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]

I think if Raptor holds AKs or TT-QQ it will be much more debatable.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT-QQ I understand, but what makes AKs so much better than AQs against a broad range of pushed hands? (And yes, I realize the hand in question is AQo, but you make it sound like it's not debatable with AQs.) If you say he'll push any K but not any Q, then I can see it, maybe.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

When I voted and made my earlier replys I didn't realize that your M was 3.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

alright...i admit it, i was trying to be cool and make you guys like me more

( i was actually the middle of editing it )

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

All right, you got me. AKs sucks arse too. I think the debate should really be over QQ, but some might debate JJ or even KK.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

I think QQ is a call, KK is a call.

JJ or TT/AKs are probably my cutoff.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

I also think QQ is good. I would probably find JJ too hard to fold in real life, but I don't think it is good enough.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

If I'm using SGA correctly, than pairs down to 99 are pretty clear calls against any two. 88 is very marginal, 77 and below clear folds. AKs, AK, A whatever, clear folds. If he has any live cards against these high card combos, it's not worth it.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

I don't believe the short stack is small enough to justify a fold in this situation. Far too he will double up off the too loose big stack and you will be back to square 1. I call this hand because winning almost assures an ITM finish.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

One of us is doing something a little bit wrong. I get TT+ for the +$EV calls if he has any two.

If he's on the maniac setting only KK+ is good.

I don't think he's necessarily on any two here, but there are other things to consider - like what happens if you fold and BB calls. So, at this point, I'm still down with QQ.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

btw in case I wasnt clear I think this is an extremely clear fold and that calling is pretty much terrible.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Also this IHateUballer guy is an idiot, everytime I make some really obvious play against him and he has a good hand and I get lucky he starts cursing me out like a moron and telling me how stupid I am. Its happened a few times now on different accts of mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahaha, his aka is worldsgrtst. hes quite solid actually. but then again, what do i know about being solid. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, he's worldsgrtst? What a prick. I usually play the $22s, but I made it to a mini-step5 the other day. My seat was between worldsgrtst and sheetsowns. Anyway, I get shortstacked in maybe level 4 and worldsgrtst pushes from my SB. I call with TT, he turns over KK. After a T hits, he goes off on me for a few minutes about how bad a play I made (which is obviously nonsense). I still don't have that many chips and my next BB Sheets pushes from UTG. I call with 88, he shows A-J. He hits a Jack but I catch a four flush to win the hand. worldsgrtst spends another five minutes explaining how I am the luckiest mother f'er on the planet. Happily, I outlasted him and made a little cash for fourth.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is an extremely clear fold and that calling is pretty much terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]

btw in case I wasnt clear I think this is an extremely clear fold and that calling is pretty much terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright that was seriously funny. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

Glad to see a couple of specific posters who agree with me.

To those who still think you should call--your chip position is of extreme importance here.

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

Hows that seriously funny? Im confused

Re: Could this top the AJ hand?? who knows..
 

[ QUOTE ]
One of us is doing something a little bit wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, me. I had the positions mixed. Still getting similar results for pairs though when I have the settings at "*" for any two. For "M", I get QQ as a fold.

And I don't think it's implasusible for him to push any two or awfully close to it. If you reverse things and have the short stacks at [L]oose then it's only marignally bad to push 32o here for him.