Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Strassa has been owning the final table, and pushed the sb, assume here that strassa has any 2 cards. BB has 9xbb and there are antes. What is the worst hand that BB should call with here? It should be noted that the BB has very little folding equity the way the big stacks and especially strassa are opening pots. There were 8 remaining at this point.
Seat 2: notsosilent (232539 in chips)
Seat 3: wader (508656 in chips)
Seat 4: Heffoy (320428 in chips)
Seat 5: jimbottt (1359433 in chips)
Seat 6: luv2winalot (1011114 in chips)
Seat 7: strassa2 (2088746 in chips)
Seat 8: stonekillr (385840 in chips)
Seat 9: S.Derrick (335744 in chips)
notsosilent: posts the ante 2000
wader: posts the ante 2000
Heffoy: posts the ante 2000
jimbottt: posts the ante 2000
luv2winalot: posts the ante 2000
strassa2: posts the ante 2000
stonekillr: posts the ante 2000
S.Derrick: posts the ante 2000
strassa2: posts small blind 20000
stonekillr: posts big blind 40000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
S.Derrick: folds
notsosilent: folds
wader: folds
Heffoy: folds
jimbottt: folds
luv2winalot: folds
strassa2: raises 2046746 to 2086746 and is all-in
stonekillr: calls 343840 and is all-in

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

I think Stonekilla needs to fold everything he wont be less than a 2-1 favorite or so over a random hand. Maybe a tiny bit worse. Something like KJs, ATo and 99 up or so seems like a spot where I'd have a really tought time deciding.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

FYI payout structure, which is vastly important:

1 - 105k
2 - 62k
3 - 39.5k
4 - 30k
5 - 24k
6 - 19.5k
7 - 14.5k
8 - 10k

Chip counts, blinds 20k/40k:

232,539
508,656
320,428
1,359,433
1,011,114
2,088,746 - strassa
385,840 - "hero"
335,744

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think Stonekilla needs to fold everything he wont be less than a 2-1 favorite or so over a random hand. Maybe a tiny bit worse. Something like KJs, ATo and 99 up or so seems like a spot where I'd have a really tought time deciding.


[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please give some _reasons_ (his stack position in relation to others, CEV as opposed to $EV, chances of winning a higher prize vs. chancses to just go up one level if someone busts, etc), instead of just saying "he needs to fold" against a RANDOM hand? (Strassa is pushing any two here).

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Well the reasons are that he is giving up EV by being all in because if he busts he can't move up the payout ladder simply by staying around. Therefore ChipEV doesnt equal $EV. I think the inflection point is around a 2:1 chip EV point, but thats just a gut feeling.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well the reasons are that he is giving up EV by being all in because if he busts he can't move up the payout ladder simply by staying around.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true even if he has AA now. Of course if he busts he can't move up.

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore ChipEV doesnt equal $EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this is not new.

[ QUOTE ]
I think the inflection point is around a 2:1 chip EV point, but thats just a gut feeling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gut feelings are nice, but I think that if you're waiting to be 2:1 with a stack this short you are giving a lot of $EV. And BTW, that's why Strassa could have run over the table. People were thinking just like you.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

I mean neither of us has done the math. Your gut is telling you its closer than 2:1, so what. I dunno, can't really take the discussion much further.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

OK, so he's got 10xBB and the highest place he can fold into is probably around fifth or sixth, maybe.

Taking *just the top 3 spots* (minus 10K each) into account, the ICM says if he folds he's worth around 11.3K, so at a very rough guess the actual figure is probably around 16 [26 total counting the 10K he has]. There are other variables, though, since if he gets high enough he'll get a deal for more than his chips are worth, etc.

Now what does he call with...without doing the ICM, I think 2:1 is a little more than what he needs. 60/40 is probably all right. But I am not at all sure - somebody else can do the exact math, this is an eyeball.

(ICM does say if he doubles he'll have around 23K plus the extra prize money in the pool it doesn't account for plus the increased $ when they deal. It's going to be a lot more trouble than it's worth to run these numbers out for real, but I have a feeling 60/40 is about right.)

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Thing is, unless you are Chris Ferguson you have to eyeball the math.

When it comes down to it, stonekillr wanted to money high instead of creep in. Strassa had been caught with J3o and 85s previously, so this is an easy call from his POV.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

KTo works out to exactly 60/40 against a random hand. It's not as terrible a call as I thought, but its razor thin. The posters that are saying it's an easy call are way off.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

67/33 cannot be right, BTW, because that would mean you'd be folding AK and this is where the ICM breaks down totally.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Yeah, I figured something like 63/37 would be it - a bit worse than 2:1. Although its been a long time since I thought about preflop equity and hand range matchups.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
I mean neither of us has done the math

[/ QUOTE ]

True. That's why adanthar is here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

"Hero" is getting just slightly better than 2 to 1 odds. From a cEV perspective you could justify calling with almost anything. But this is obviously a time when cEV does not equal $EV and the difference in payouts from one place to another is pretty big.

There is $224,500 left to be played for since everyone is guaranteed $10k. Let's use the old stack size divided by chips in play equals equity formula. There are a total of 6,242,500 chips in play.

If the hero calls and wins, he'll have 783,680. If he calls and loses, he's out in 10th place (and receives no equity since we've already accounted for 8th place money). If he folds, he'll have 343,840.

The equity of calling and winning is $28,183 (783,680/6242500*$224,500). The equity of calling and losing is $0. The equity of folding is $12,365.

Using simple algebra with x equal to the probability that we call and win:

28,183x=12,365
x=12,365/28,183
x=43.9%

So we need to win 43.9% of the time to make this a NEUTRAL decision. And with Jason's reputation and huge stack I would say that any two cards is a likely range to put him on.

So the minimum hands to call with (the probability of winning exceeds - albeit in some cases just barely - 43.9%) includes:

22+
A2+
K2+
Q2+
J2+
T2s+
T5o+
95s+
96o+
85s+
87o
76s

Obviously this is predicated on the range of hands being any two cards. Tightening up that range would change our calling hands substantially. But I would personally be comfortable with any two as the range.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
KTo works out to exactly 60/40 against a random hand. It's not as terrible a call as I thought, but its razor thin. The posters that are saying it's an easy call are way off.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
You're WAYYYYY off. We're a 60/40 FAVORITE against a random hand with KTo. All we need to be to justify a call is a 44/56 DOG. KTo is a no-brainer.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're WAYYYYY off. We're a 60/40 FAVORITE against a random hand with KTo. All we need to be to justify a call is a 44/56 DOG. KTo is a no-brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

i beg to differ. do you see why? holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Personally, intuitively I think that his call is fine. I was obviously pushing every hand, but a few times there was the occasional QQ or AT I pushed as well, so it truly was any hand. KTs is definitely ahead of my range, hehe. That being said, there were a few other shortish stacks at the table so by folding KT he definitely would've had a decent chance of moving up in the money. Whether that was the most +EV is another story. I really dont mind the call, although I might've picked a different spot if I was in his shoes.

-Jason

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

The equity of folding is higher than you think.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're WAYYYYY off. We're a 60/40 FAVORITE against a random hand with KTo. All we need to be to justify a call is a 44/56 DOG. KTo is a no-brainer.

[/ QUOTE ]

i beg to differ. do you see why? holla

[/ QUOTE ]
Nope.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
The equity of folding is higher than you think.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't say that without backing it up. I've done the math. You can certainly argue that using stacks/chips in play isn't a good approximation but it's a fairly standard way of calculating $EV.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Use the independant chip model.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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You're WAYYYYY off. We're a 60/40 FAVORITE against a random hand with KTo. All we need to be to justify a call is a 44/56 DOG. KTo is a no-brainer.


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i beg to differ. do you see why? holla


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Nope.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, thats pretty clear. i mean, if everyone is saying this is an autocall, then K6s should be a call. im NEVER going to call a push here with a K6s for 9.5x bb. ever. period. do you see why now? holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

llyod is also saying the player should call with Q5o.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
Use the independant chip model.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
The independent chip model was designed primarily for sit and gos and only takes into consideration the top 3 money spots. It's not applicable to this situation which is why Adanthar started with ICM but mentioned the change in equity because of that limitation.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
llyod is also saying the player should call with Q5o.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

might as well call with 23o. thats pretty close right? holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
llyod is also saying the player should call with Q5o.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, and unless you come up with an alternate way of mathematically computing equity it would be correct to call with all of the hands that I listed. The fact that you won't call with those hands is yet another reason why a guy like Jason will dominate you (and others) in situations like these. Yep, it seems pretty tough to call with Q5 but in reality it's 50/50 versus a random hand. So with the antes it becomes correct to call.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
llyod is also saying the player should call with Q5o.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

might as well call with 23o. thats pretty close right? holla

[/ QUOTE ]
32o is a 2-1 dog and does not give us the proper odds to call. The problem is that you're making decisions based on your gut when this really gets down to a math decision. But hey, what do I know.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that you're making decisions based on your gut when this really gets down to a math decision. But hey, what do I know.

[/ QUOTE ]

holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Your calculations underestimate the number of spots hero can move up by folding, but like I said - when I saw the hand it felt wrong for the player to call with KTo. He certainly cannot call with the range you are suggesting.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Quote:
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You're WAYYYYY off. We're a 60/40 FAVORITE against a random hand with KTo. All we need to be to justify a call is a 44/56 DOG. KTo is a no-brainer.


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i beg to differ. do you see why? holla


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Nope.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, thats pretty clear. i mean, if everyone is saying this is an autocall, then K6s should be a call. im NEVER going to call a push here with a K6s for 9.5x bb. ever. period. do you see why now? holla

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, because you cloud good judgement with emotion and are afraid that others will look at your call as being maniacal versus a well thought out response to maniacal aggression by the chip leader.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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llyod is also saying the player should call with Q5o.

-SmileyEH


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might as well call with 23o. thats pretty close right? holla


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32o is a 2-1 dog and does not give us the proper odds to call. The problem is that you're making decisions based on your gut when this really gets down to a math decision. But hey, what do I know.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, i duno anything either. i mean, god, could an argument POSSIBLY be made about being an actual better player, and using fold equity and a bit of hand selection to yer advantage, as opposed to putting yerself in break even situations all the time? hmmmm.. holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your calculations underestimate the number of spots hero can move up by folding, but like I said - when I saw the hand it felt wrong for the player to call with KTo. He certainly cannot call with the range you are suggesting.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm done responding because you clearly do not understand some of these fairly basic concepts and refuse to even consider them or offer an alternative based on something other than irrational fear.

Hola.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

edit: nm, I didn't realize you accounted for that whole '10K' thing, I'm dumb

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, because you cloud good judgement with emotion and are afraid that others will look at your call as being maniacal versus a well thought out response to maniacal aggression by the chip leader.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahhahahahha, i assure you, its not out of fear that i fold. go find my 24 post if u think im scared. its because its a terrible play that i fold. i dont care if 'the numbers' say its a break even play, or even +2 chip ev. thats not the point. the point is you can find MORE +ev spots to put yerself into. thats the actual SKILL part in poker. not just making the play that breaks even in the long run. hmm. holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Quote:
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llyod is also saying the player should call with Q5o.

-SmileyEH


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might as well call with 23o. thats pretty close right? holla


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32o is a 2-1 dog and does not give us the proper odds to call. The problem is that you're making decisions based on your gut when this really gets down to a math decision. But hey, what do I know.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, i duno anything either. i mean, god, could an argument POSSIBLY be made about being an actual better player, and using fold equity and a bit of hand selection to yer advantage, as opposed to putting yerself in break even situations all the time? hmmmm.. holla

[/ QUOTE ]
Absolutely. So take the equity valuations I came up with and make adjustments. Then figure out the probability of winning you need to have and calculate a range of hands based on that probability. That is absolutely a valid argument. My guess is that even accounting for being a better player you won't need to be more than 50/50 to make calling correct.

And folding into higher spots is not the solution.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your calculations underestimate the number of spots hero can move up by folding, but like I said - when I saw the hand it felt wrong for the player to call with KTo. He certainly cannot call with the range you are suggesting.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm done responding because you clearly do not understand some of these fairly basic concepts and refuse to even consider them or offer an alternative based on something other than irrational fear.

Hola.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I failed basic concepts in high school. My bad.

-SmileyEH

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Quote:
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Quote:
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Quote:
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llyod is also saying the player should call with Q5o.

-SmileyEH


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might as well call with 23o. thats pretty close right? holla


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32o is a 2-1 dog and does not give us the proper odds to call. The problem is that you're making decisions based on your gut when this really gets down to a math decision. But hey, what do I know.


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yea, i duno anything either. i mean, god, could an argument POSSIBLY be made about being an actual better player, and using fold equity and a bit of hand selection to yer advantage, as opposed to putting yerself in break even situations all the time? hmmmm.. holla


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Absolutely. So take the equity valuations I came up with and make adjustments. Then figure out the probability of winning you need to have and calculate a range of hands based on that probability. That is absolutely a valid argument. My guess is that even accounting for being a better player you won't need to be more than 50/50 to make calling correct.

And folding into higher spots is not the solution.

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously, end yer life now if that is what yer getting out of my posts.. that i think you should be FOLDING YER WAY TO HIGHER MONEY. that is the last thing you will EVER see me doing. folding my way up in the money. i play for first. period. but i dont make dog dick awful calls in a situation where i still have quite a bit of room to maneuver. holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, because you cloud good judgement with emotion and are afraid that others will look at your call as being maniacal versus a well thought out response to maniacal aggression by the chip leader.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahhahahahha, i assure you, its not out of fear that i fold. go find my 24 post if u think im scared. its because its a terrible play that i fold. i dont care if 'the numbers' say its a break even play, or even +2 chip ev. thats not the point. the point is you can find MORE +ev spots to put yerself into. thats the actual SKILL part in poker. not just making the play that breaks even in the long run. hmm. holla

[/ QUOTE ]
It's costing you 76,000 every orbit. How long are you going to wait for a +EV play?

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your calculations underestimate the number of spots hero can move up by folding, but like I said - when I saw the hand it felt wrong for the player to call with KTo. He certainly cannot call with the range you are suggesting.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
Wasn't you (Raptor)

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Yes, because you cloud good judgement with emotion and are afraid that others will look at your call as being maniacal versus a well thought out response to maniacal aggression by the chip leader.


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hahahahhahahahha, i assure you, its not out of fear that i fold. go find my 24 post if u think im scared. its because its a terrible play that i fold. i dont care if 'the numbers' say its a break even play, or even +2 chip ev. thats not the point. the point is you can find MORE +ev spots to put yerself into. thats the actual SKILL part in poker. not just making the play that breaks even in the long run. hmm. holla


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It's costing you 76,000 every orbit. How long are you going to wait for a +EV play?

[/ QUOTE ]

i rather fold here and wait maybe 2-3 hands till its folded to me and push 23o than call with KTo. calling is sin. holla