Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

Hey guys,

10-handed from today/yesterday's session. Loose average 28/6 UTG limps, 2 folds to a similar MP limper, I raise next to act with AhJc. One fold, 31/9 CO calls (12% CC), 24/5 Button calls (7% CC). SB folds, BB calls, both limpers call. 6 to the flop for 12.5 SB's.

Flop comes: A J 6 r

BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets. I raise, CO calls, Button 3-bets. Folded back to MP who calls, I cap, CO folds, Button and MP call. 3 to the turn for 13.2 BB's.

Turn comes: 4 putting two clubs on the board

MP checks, I bet, Button folds, MP calls. HU for 15.2 BB's.

River comes: 9 completing the flush draw

MP checks, I bet, MP raises.

Any questions???

GoT

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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Any questions???

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Did you fold?

edit: No, I'm not folding here ever.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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Any questions???

GoT

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- I really fancy the Atomic All Mountain B5 Puls - do you think its a good pick ?

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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Any questions???

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What did you do?

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

GoT,

This seems totally standard until the river. I imagine that MP has an ace. I guess the question is whether he has Acxc and caught runner-runner, or whether he has A4/A6/A9, as he could have been planning to c/r the turn but decided to wait until the river to be "tricky" once it was heads-up.

With no post-flop reads on the MP, I'm not prepared to raise and fold to a cap, and there is no better hand he will drop to a checkraise...so I will just call the river checkraise, and expect to lose more than 50% of the time.

P.S. All of the above assumes that the floped ace wasn't a club. Points deducted to GoT for not providing this information. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

One question: which flop card is the club?

Personally, I'd probably always call here. That doesn't mean it's the correct play.

Since the theme of these posts seems to be hand ranges, let's take a look at MP. His limp doesn't tell you much at all, but his flop bet does. If he's a bit loose/passive, you can usually count on him having at least a pair to bet out on the flop into a field that large. When the betting is raised and 3-bet back to him, his call definitely shows he has a pair. Since the guy is a bit loose, but not overly so, it seems unlikely that he would call with a weak jack (but not impossible). On the other hand, it seems very likely that he could call down with a middle or weak ace if he had a backdoor draw to go with it.

That's why I'm curious which flop card is the club. If the ace of clubs is out, then his possible backdoor flush draw would have to contain at best a jack (and possibly, though unlikely, a six). If the jack or the six is the club, then he could potentially be holding Ax of clubs, which would make it much more likely that he could have hit the flush.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

Was the 6 or the A on the flop a club?

If the flop contained the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I threebet. It just seems to bizarre for MP to lead the flop with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and much more likely that he hit his A9.

If the flop contained the 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], it is much more likely that I am beat and I just call down.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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GoT,

This seems totally standard until the river. I imagine that MP has an ace. I guess the question is whether he has Acxc and caught runner-runner, or whether he has A4/A6/A9, as he could have been planning to c/r the turn but decided to wait until the river to be "tricky" once it was heads-up.

With no post-flop reads on the MP, I'm not prepared to raise and fold to a cap, and there is no better hand he will drop to a checkraise...so I will just call the river checkraise, and expect to lose more than 50% of the time.

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Yeah, unless the ace on the rainbow flop was a club, I'm not happy about this river checkraise at all.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

I've been pretty reluctant to post anything in these daily hand posts, as the last two have been so over my head, and this is GuyOnTilt =).

Anyways, I think everything looks pretty standard here. I don't know wtf Button is doing 3betting and folding the turn, but whatever.

I'd like to know if the A is a club or not.

By the river, villain's range is possibly 99, J9, A9, Jx clubs, Ax clubs (if flop A is not club), and rarely a slowplayed AA, JJ, 66, A4, A6, AK, AQ, AJ, 44 (probably would have popped the turn with these), and even more rarely J6, J4 (probably would fold these preflop).

I don't see us losing here more than 1/18 to make this fold.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

Your hands are fun:

Based on his action, I am ~100% sure villain doesn't have a set here. He lead into the PFR on the flop, and didn't cap the flop or raise the turn. Yet he raised on the river. A lot can be read from his flop bet, and subsequent calling of 2 cold: this guy has an ace. On the river, facing the checkraise, you just need to calc the odds he had AcXc vs the odds he had A9o.

If the A on board was a club, I think this is an easy three bet. But if the 6 was a club (and the A was offsuit - which i am pretty sure is the case here), we need to do some math. There are two aces left in the deck for villain to hold, and 3 nines (9c on board). Thus, 6 variations of A9o are possible for villain.

To see how many AcXc are possible, we just give villain credit for the Ac and count down. AK, AQ, AT, A8, A7, A5, A3, and A2 are all possible - making 8 variations. But, villain would have raised AK and AQ suited preflop, so those hands are out, leaving villain with 6 possibilities here.

But taking this line of thought a little further, villain didn't know the turn card would be a club, and therefore there is a substantial chance that some of those weaker AcXc hands would have folded the flop. Beyond that, there is a chance that villain would also raise AcTc preflop. So I would weight the A9 hands as more likely than the AcXc hands.

So because of all that, I am prone to 3betting the river. But before I do, we must consider whether or not this player would fold A9 to the 3bet here, and I think the answer is clearly no. The other consideration is whether or not villain would cap this river with anything hero beats - again, I think the answer is no.

This is an amazingly thin edge to push, but I say 3bet the river and fold to a cap.


NOTE: all of the above is presuming that villain is mostly a decent player, just a little too loose and a little too passive. I think this is a safe assumption given the stakes (and the fact that GoT posted this in the first place), but if that read wasn't true the above analysis would be off.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

i'll call this without a strong read, the suit of the flop ace does have some bearing here though

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

I'd say that a lot does depend on whether the A on the board is a club or not. Either way may be a call though since any two pair other than A9 seems unlikely. If J9 is a possibility then I'd consider a 3-bet if the A isn't a club. But more than likely I'm just calling here. If I did 3-bet there's no way I'm folding to a cap with 22+ BB's in the middle.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

its possible mp has a flopped set although pretty unlikely as you would have heard about it on the turn. its doubtful he withstood all the flop action with 99.

more likely is that 9c hit him and he has either a9 or a flush.

so i guess you decision is to call or 3bet. heres the thing: since the pot is big (and given your action) your opp knows you are gonna call down here, so that lends some credibility to his hand. so, i just call here.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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This is an amazingly thin edge to push, but I say 3bet the river and fold to a cap.




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lines that allow a fold in a 22 bb pot on the river for one bet in online poker are a good way to lose money.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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lines that allow a fold in a 22 bb pot on the river for one bet in online poker are a good way to lose money.

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Tell that to GoT [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] :

Another hand

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

[edit - i'm calling, nice hand.]

-d

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

3-bet. I don't care what suit the A is really.

Krishan

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

Expect to see a FPS check/raise bluff more than 1/18 times here. That being said, I think he indeed has your hand beat here more than half the time (9/18) but certainly not even 2/18 of the time are you behind.

Is your intent here to attempt to put him on a range of hands? Is not folding here catatsrophic for the price you are getting and meta-game reasons?

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

It sucks if he hit the backdoor flush. Trips seem unlikely as he came out firing on the flop.

I'd guess it's more likely he hit 2 a lesser Axs 2-pair though and you've got to call.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

AHA!

His intent in this post is not whether you should call, but whether one should reraise!

That must be it.

Folding is preposterous.

I would not reraise, because I don't "like" it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

Well, the only question here, as others have said, seems to be the river.

Looking at the hand in a vacuum like this, I'd say I'd want to 3-bet the river if the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is on the board, and just call if it's the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the board.

With the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the board, I just think a hand like A9 or even J9 is much more likely than a random flush. At that point, the only other hand I'd really think the opponent could have played that way is KQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or maybe something wacky like KT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

If the A on the board is NOT a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], then I just call.

I think calling or raising is the only decision, and honestly, when people make a move like that on the river when I'm 4-tabling, 9 times out of 10 I just call anyway, because the river check-raise is confusing and I'm saying WTF?

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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I think calling or raising is the only decision, and honestly, when people make a move like that on the river when I'm 4-tabling, 9 times out of 10 I just call anyway, because the river check-raise is confusing and I'm saying WTF?

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My thoughts exactly. I'm pretty sure a fold is out of the question

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

Either he backed into a flush draw or has A9

I like a three-bet here, but what to do if villain caps? Groan and call?

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

I'd probably 3 bet and call. 2nd choice is just call. I can't believe anyone here would 3bet and fold to a cap in this size pot. If you are going to fold to the last bet you shouldn't have put the 3rd bet in.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

If your hand range includes only a flush and A9 then why would you 3-bet?

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

I don't think this hand is all that interesting.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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I don't think this hand is all that interesting.

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It's not if I included the suits on the flop. Way more people got this than I thought would, which is AWESOME. So many times when I'm discussing hands with people and they're talking me thru the action, a backdoor flush will come and I'll ask them which card on the flop was that suit, and they won't have the foggiest. That should really be the first thing you look for, as it can have a huge impact on your opponents' range of hands, as per this example. Learn to make looking for these things second nature and automatic. If that thought didn't occur to you relatively quicly, you probably need to start making a conscious effort during your sessions to look out for this in particular and think through more factors for opponent hand-reading in general. This hand shouldn't be interesting or difficult really, but I've noticed some people make it a lot more of a guessing game than it should be by not noticing these things.

As others have said, my standard play here would be to 3-bet if the Ace was a club, and call if the 6 was a club. Same goes with AA and JJ. Folding is out of the question, though I would consider mucking AK and AQ here depending on the stats of the opponent.

GoT

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

I think an easy call here for the times that he raises here w/ A9 PLUS the times he's bluffing hoping to move you off w/ a weaker A. I can't think of any way you fold to this raise w/ T2P. It's 1 more bet to most likely win 18.

FMI -- what was the Flop club?

Going to read everyone else's comments now -- please flame me if I'm in gross error here.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

An even better question -- What suit is GOT's A?

Back to the posts...

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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An even better question -- What suit is GOT's A?

Back to the posts...

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I raise next to act with AhJc.

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-d

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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An even better question -- What suit is GOT's A?

Back to the posts...

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I raise next to act with AhJc.

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-d

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DOH! Excuse me and my lazy mouse...

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

I wouldn't raise because I'm not convinced you're ahead &gt;50% of the time. If you raise against 1 opponent you need to be ahead &gt;50% and he'd need to call that 50%.

I'm pretty damn sure you're ahead often enough to call 1BB for a showdown (since the entire pot is at stake). I'm definately not sure you're ahead often enough to value-raise.

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

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As others have said, my standard play here would be to 3-bet if the Ace was a club, and call if the 6 was a club.

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So you are basically betting that he has a worse two pair rather than a set in the case where you 3-bet.

Assuming he coldcalls only with a suited A (which is reasonable):

A4s - 2 hands
A6s - 2 hands
A9s - 2 hands
AJ - 4 hands

66 - 3 hands
44 - 3 hands
99 - 3 hands
JJ - 3 hands (i'll discount to 1 b/c no PF 3-bet)
AA - 3 hands (discount to 1 also)

This makes the 3-bet look bad. I am assuming you think that we would have heard from the sets earlier. But wouldn't we also have heard from the two pairs -- even more so, since those hands are more vulnerable when played slow?

What am I missing?

Thanks,
gm

Re: Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP
 

MP was a limper. Offsuit Aces are reasonable hands for him here since he has ~a 30 VPIP, and even if that is questionable it should go up huge in value given his flop and turn line. Sets are extremely unlikely given his action,as someone in the mindset of just calling the turn planning on raising the river with a set would not have bet the flop into a PFR on his immediate left and visa versa. The same goes with 2-pair besides perhaps a turned 2-pair - and a turned set I suppose, but again, extremely unlikely - so there really aren't too many hands he can possibly have here besides A9, J9, something like x [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or a weird-played hand worse than mine. I would give some serious extra weight here for A9 since someone would very reasonable play that hand this way every time, but the same can't be said for any of his other holdings, and certainly no hand that beats me.

GoT