WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

Here is a hand that I played against Scott Fishman at the WSOP Event #2 $1500 NL tournament that I would appreciate comments on.

note:I am posting my thoughts on this hand now - in a separate post. I think it would be a good idea if people did not read those until after they have thought about this hand and commented on it. I would wait to post my thoughts but I already typed them and don't want to forget to post them later.

Background:

I just recently moved to this table after my table broke up. The blinds were 100/200 with a 25 ante. On the very first hand that I sat down at the table I was seated two off the button and was dealt A9o. It was folded around to me and I raised it to 700. It’s folded to Fishman who is in the BB and he moves all in for somewhat less than my stack (very close). I have about 6k before this hand and I folded.

After that I didn’t do anything until the next round where I stole the blinds in a similar position with KQo and the same size bet. Other than the hand where Fishman moved in against me he hasn’t been too active. He did win one pot in between my hand and his hand where he didn’t show his hand down. I can’t remember the details of that hand but I believe he made a large bet during it as well and then his opponent folded (I am very very foggy on the hand though and all I really know for sure is that he has chipped up slightly). The hand in question happens in my second small blind.

My stack, before posting the small blind, is 5425 and Fishman has me covered. I didn’t count everyone at my table down by my stack appeared to be slightly lower than the average stack at my table. The large stacks (2 of them) would have been 15k or more.

100/200 Blinds w 25 ante – 10 handed. The blinds are going up to 150/300 w 25 ante in about 13 minutes.

Pre-flop:
Fishman open limps in middle/late position. I am the SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and complete. The BB checks.

Flop (825):
J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I check, BB checks, Fishman bets 325. I checkraise to 1325 total. BB folds and Fishman calls.

<font color="blue">I checked this flop specifically because I was watching Fishman when the flop came down and although I didn’t pick up on any tell per se I really felt that if checked to he was going to bet this board</font>

Turn (3475)
6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet 1500, Fishman raises all-in and has me covered. I think for a long time and fold.

Comments on all plays of this hand very appreciated.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

This post was written before reading any comments posted. It is my current thoughts on the hand unbiased.

Pre-flop:
I think completing the small blind here is trivial with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 725-100 pot odds.
<font color="blue">At this point of the hand I put Fishman on a hand range something like: 22-77, 56s-JTs (possibly QJs – I’m not sure if he would raise with this), as well as some suited gap type of hands and possibly a big pair like AA-QQ (trapping). Maybe my range is too narrow here?</font>

Flop:
Perfect flop for me – almost. As mentioned in the initial post I really though Fishman was going to bet this flop if I checked to him. It also really felt like the BB had no interest in this hand and he was not trying to hide that. With this in mind, and with the thought that Fishman was an aggressive player I went for a check raise. I also thought that if the hand got checked around and a bad card came on the turn that I would be willing to get away from my hand without investing a lot of my chips.

When Fishman bet 325 I checked raised 1000 more, giving him pot odds of about 2.5-1 (2475-1000) which seemed like a good amount to bet to allow him make a mistake. The other bet that I thought was to check raise it 1400-1500 more (making my raise about the size of the pot).

My standard move on this flop would be to bet out about 400-500 and maybe that’s what I should have done here. I kind of wanted to play a bigger pot though so decided to get Fishman involved.

<font color="blue">The range I put him on is similar to the range posted above. I thought he probably had a flush draw or something like JTs.</font>

Turn:
Well, that card really sucks ass but I have to bet here. Checking is basically giving up on this hand and this pot is too big for me to do that. I really think I have to bet here and I choose 1500 because it is slightly less than half the pot, but is still a sizeable bet considering our stack sizes. It also leaves me 2400 behind which is 12BB’s. I thought this bet gave me maximum leverage on the hand while still allowing myself to fold if I had to.

When Fishman raised me all in I thought long and hard. My initial instinct was to move in. I talked myself out of it because I really thought Fishman’s only hand was a flush. I talked myself out of the possibility that he was bluffing (disregarded Harrington’s Law of Bluffing) because it looks like I have to call here and his raise really appears that he wants me to call it. If he wants me to call his raise then surely I have to fold right?

Well… that’s what I thought up until my flight home. I started to re-read Harrington before starting Volume 2 and got to Example 4: on page 138 where he introduces the concept of Inflection points. When I got to page 142 I felt as if he was talking about my hand exactly and I felt as if I had made a large mistake by folding. By folding I really did not give myself a reasonable chance to continue on in the tournament. 2400 was a really small stack at my table and with the blinds rising I was in trouble. Even though I still think that Fishman had a flush I believe that I should have assigned some probability to a range of hands that I did have beat (like AA with the Ace of hearts – however improbable), as well as a probability that he was bluffing, and taking that into account – even if I thought he was bluffing I should have sad “f*ck it” and gambled in this spot.

I think I was at an inflection point in my tournament and although this was probably a good fold in a cash game I think it was a bad fold in a tournament. I need to chip up sometime and here is a really decent spot.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I think you ran into problems on the turn because of the flop raise. A slightly smaller raise leaves you much more wiggle room on the turn while still giving fishman incorrect odds to call for a flush, since you will be betting the turn and he only gets to see one more card. I'd raise to 900 or so there.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

Also you have to take into account the possibility that if you are beat you will draw out on him.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also you have to take into account the possibility that if you are beat you will draw out on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is obvious. If I failed to mention it then I meant to but it is obvious. My pot odds are not there and that was considered when I was at the table as I always do that.

edit: It's possible that I forgot to write about this because my post was getting so freaking long. I generally don't like reading long posts by others so try and keep mine short when possible. This was on my mind when I wrote this big ass post.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I like a lead on the flop, but that could be influenced by already knowing how the turn was played.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you ran into problems on the turn because of the flop raise. A slightly smaller raise leaves you much more wiggle room on the turn while still giving fishman incorrect odds to call for a flush, since you will be betting the turn and he only gets to see one more card. I'd raise to 900 or so there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I think the flop may have been the source of some of my problems. Would you raise to 900 total or would you raise 900 more? (I'm assuming 900 total).

If it's 900 total then what would you follow up with on the turn? 1000? I would love to hear a few more thoughts about why you chose 900 spcecifically.

Also, given my flop play I would really appreciate any comments with regards to my turn thoughts relating to Harrington and inflection points.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I think when he calls your flop raise he is counting hearts as bluff outs so often and pulls the trigger on this turn so often that you should be instacalling pretty much always.

What, you don't think there's a ~25% chance this is something like 7x 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
What, you don't think there's a ~25% chance this is something like 7x 7 ?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't. I think that percentage is way way too high and I think you are giving him way too high of bluff percentage here since I don't think many players are going to fold my hand after the betting sequence I iniateted.

[ QUOTE ]
I think when he calls your flop raise he is counting hearts as bluff outs so often and pulls the trigger on this turn so often should be instacalling pretty much always.


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true then after the actual values that I bet on th flop and on the turn then it should be clear that I have an easy call of his turn "bluff" and hence he should know this and know that he shouldn't be bluffing in this spot.

Do people often fold my stack size to turn pushes in this type of spot (forget my actual holding) after this betting sequence. I've shown a lot of strength and committed a lot of chips to the pot.

I think his bluffing percentage in this hand is very low.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think when he calls your flop raise he is counting hearts as bluff outs so often and pulls the trigger on this turn so often that you should be instacalling pretty much always.

What, you don't think there's a ~25% chance this is something like 7x 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking something similar to this as well - that he's counting hearts as bluff outs (probably semi-bluff assuming he has a heart). His limp seems odd to me - and knowing that he knows you're capable of laying down hands that you bet/raise with (eg. your first hand against him), I think he's limping to try to hit something or steal the pot from you if he misses.

I call here and expect to see a semi-bluff with one heart.

ts-

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking something similar to this as well - that he's counting hearts as bluff outs (probably semi-bluff assuming he has a heart). His limp seems odd to me - and knowing that he knows you're capable of laying down hands that you bet/raise with (eg. your first hand against him), I think he's limping to ... steal the pot from you if he misses.



[/ QUOTE ]

I've been at the table about 18-30 hands and have put in two pre-flop raises. Folded to a reraise and won uncontested the second time. Do you really think he is tailoring his entire play around me in this hand? The BB is the big stack at the table BTW.

I think it's preposterous to think that Fishman is setting up a bluff from middle position based around the fact that I'm in the small blind. The entire above statement really doesn't make any sense to me.

[ QUOTE ]
try to hit something

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why he is limping. Hence the hand range that I gave him in my posts above.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I would have seriously considered the possibily that he had either AA with a heart or KK with a heart.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking something similar to this as well - that he's counting hearts as bluff outs (probably semi-bluff assuming he has a heart). His limp seems odd to me - and knowing that he knows you're capable of laying down hands that you bet/raise with (eg. your first hand against him), I think he's limping to ... steal the pot from you if he misses.



[/ QUOTE ]

I've been at the table about 18-30 hands and have put in two pre-flop raises. Folded to a reraise and won uncontested the second time. Do you really think he is tailoring his entire play around me in this hand? The BB is the big stack at the table BTW.

I think it's preposterous to think that Fishman is setting up a bluff from middle position based around the fact that I'm in the small blind. The entire above statement really doesn't make any sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay - maybe I wasn't clear. I didn't mean that he limped knowing that nobody else would come into the pot and that he could then steal it from you. His open limp to me either means monster PP or some marginal hand (like the range you described) that is looking to get a good flop. However, Fischman is a very good player, and if he has something like K/Jo, he may call your check-raise and think that he a) has the best hand with TPGK, b) can hit a K to improve, c) count hearts as possible outs. Then, he watches your reaction on the turn (I mean looks for a tell, not just paying attention to your bet) and if he senses weakness, he can push into you. And yeah, I know you're going to say that Fischman must assume that most people who have played the hand the way you have will not fold to his turn push, but some will.

In regards to your thoughts about inflection points, yeah, I think this is near the point where you have to chip up or go home. Fischman realizes this too, so although he may have the hearts, I'm just saying that there is also a distinct possibility that Fischman realizes that he has to chip up or go home too. The fact that Fischman knows you can lay down a hand just adds to the possibility that he's semi- or fully bluffing the hearts here.

I don't know how the rest of the table was playing - maybe 12xBB was enough of a stack that you felt you could really make a run for the FT. But in my mind, you have to call this because of the chance that you're ahead against his TPGK, ahead against his semi-bluff, or that you still have some out against his flush.

I hope that clears up some of what I was trying to say before.

ts-

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you ran into problems on the turn because of the flop raise. A slightly smaller raise leaves you much more wiggle room on the turn while still giving fishman incorrect odds to call for a flush, since you will be betting the turn and he only gets to see one more card. I'd raise to 900 or so there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would Fishman be so incorrect to call for the flush? Yes he'd only be getting 3.3:1 immediate odds, but couldn't he figure that you'd be quite likely to bet out on the turn even if a flush card came?

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I think when you combine your 4 outs against the flush and the possibility Fishman is bluffing, semibluffing with a high heart, or thinks he is ahead with a lesser made hand, it is a call considering the pot odds.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I read a few of the replys and no one mentioned what they thought Fish put YOU on. I think your check raise on the flop shows real strength, either two pair, a set, or a flush draw. When the flush card hits on fourth street and you lead out, I am really thinking Fish puts your most likely hand at J-something of hearts. I don't put Fish on AA or KK with a heart (a flop reraise certainly would have been appropriate with those hands, hearts or none). I also don't think Fish would expect you to lay down a hand that he put you on on the flop (two pair, set, now made flush). IMHO, I don't believe this is a semi-bluff. I am thinking Fish is expecting a call here. I think you're beat (but then again, all my friends tell me I'm weak-tight, so maybe I just have no balls). Harrington or not, I make this lay down.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I read a few of the replys and no one mentioned what they thought Fish put YOU on. I think your check raise on the flop shows real strength, either two pair, a set, or a flush draw. When the flush card hits on fourth street and you lead out, I am really thinking Fish puts your most likely hand at J-something of hearts. I don't put Fish on AA or KK with a heart (a flop reraise certainly would have been appropriate with those hands, hearts or none). I also don't think Fish would expect you to lay down a hand that he put you on on the flop (two pair, set, now made flush). IMHO, I don't believe this is a semi-bluff. I am thinking Fish is expecting a call here. I think you're beat (but then again, all my friends tell me I'm weak-tight, so maybe I just have no balls). Harrington or not, I make this lay down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or, Fischman is stealing on the flop and SB resteals. Fisch calls and blows him off his hand on scary turn cards, with hero making a nice continuating looking bet that's pretty small given pot size.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I read a few of the replys and no one mentioned what they thought Fish put YOU on. I think your check raise on the flop shows real strength, either two pair, a set, or a flush draw. When the flush card hits on fourth street and you lead out, I am really thinking Fish puts your most likely hand at J-something of hearts. I don't put Fish on AA or KK with a heart (a flop reraise certainly would have been appropriate with those hands, hearts or none). I also don't think Fish would expect you to lay down a hand that he put you on on the flop (two pair, set, now made flush). IMHO, I don't believe this is a semi-bluff. I am thinking Fish is expecting a call here. I think you're beat (but then again, all my friends tell me I'm weak-tight, so maybe I just have no balls). Harrington or not, I make this lay down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or, Fischman is stealing on the flop and SB resteals. Fisch calls and blows him off his hand on scary turn cards, with hero making a nice continuating looking bet that's pretty small given pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, the check-raise on the flop looks like a resteal against a limper, and the turn bet is a continuation bet that is small enough that the OP can still get off the hand and have some chips to play with.

ts-

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

When you checkraise, it will probably look like you have hit youre two pairs or highest pair with a decent kicker, but are afraid of hearts. Would you chekc-raise a flush draw and face an allin??.. not likely.. if you were on a draw, you would probably call on the flop..

and when a heart come on the turn, you bet an amount that leave you some room for still surviving the turnament, which is probably what fishman sees.. he know that you probably doesn't have a flush.. due to the check-raise.. and he knows that you are afraid, since you didnt go all in.. so he sees weakness..

I would think that he have a couple of outs.. maybe a heart and a pocket..

I would have looked at my hand after the flop and checkraised all-in take it down there and then.. and hope he didn't flopped his set.. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think when he calls your flop raise he is counting hearts as bluff outs so often and pulls the trigger on this turn so often that you should be instacalling pretty much always.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the biggest argument for a call.

His raising your turn bet and giving you 'interesting' odds to call off the rest is the most telling aspect of the hand, though.

I think it's hazy enough in terms of its meaning to make it a close call, but a call nonetheless.

-kyo

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

This fold kinda makes me sick. Leaving your with only 2700 chips behind or something.

Blackjack

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I guess I'm putting Fischman on a set of 4s here, and if so, I like how he played it.

Obviously my reads aren't accurate 100% of the time though and I don't much like folding top two pair with that much of your stack in. That's a big fold.

I hope you were right.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

‘Checking is basically giving up on this hand…’

Only if you are planning to fold to a reraise if you bet, which imho you should not of done (Stack of 55BB for a call and win compared to 12BB for a fold gives significantly better real odds than the 3.7:1 pot odds). I like a second checkraise here, or a value bet on a non heart river if Scott checks behind on the turn.

Steve

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

Without reading any of the posts made in this thread after the first, I think I have to call here.

At the flop, there is 600 in the pot. Fischman makes it 325 to go, you checkraise to 1325, he calls. Something like 4000 in the pot at this point.

Turn comes, terrible card, completing the heart draw. You bet out 1500, he puts you all in. At this point you've got... Something like 2400 chips in front of you, so you would have to call 2400 to win something like 12000. Getting offered almost 6:1 I think, if my math is right (it's really early). So, he only needs to be on J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Tx or something else you've got beat (86o comes to mind) once every 6 times to make this the right call.

I call here, with the insane amount of money in the pot, and top two pair, even with the heart falling. I would probably kick myself if he had the flush, but I make the call.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I think you were behind here. I think Fischman flopped a set or called your check-raise with a hand like AhJh, KhJh, or Th9h which made a flush on the turn. The only hands that you beat that I could see Fischman calling your check-raise with and then pushing against your turn bet are AA or KK - and I don't give those a lot of probability. I don't think he would give you the kind of pot odds he was giving you ATT if he didn't think he had you beat. The fact that he pushed you out of one pot already does not mean that he is confident that he can do it again, in fact he might be more leary that with the action you've showed that you'll be ready to take a stand this time (with a second best hand).

I think you made a good fold, but that of course is JMO.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would have looked at my hand after the flop and checkraised all-in take it down there and then.. and hope he didn't flopped his set..

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really like this. I think I should bet enough to make it incorrect for him to call but not so much that he has an easy fold of any hand that doesn't have me beat badly.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
This fold kinda makes me sick. Leaving your with only 2700 chips behind or something.



[/ QUOTE ]

I had 2400 chips behind. Care to expand on your thoughts?

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would have seriously considered the possibily that he had either AA with a heart or KK with a heart.


[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't anyone think in terms of hand ranges? Compared to his entire spectrum of limping hands here how often does he really have AA or KK? I think we are talking about a very small amount of the time where he really does have AA or KK and if he did wouldn't it be better to reraise me all in on the flop after I check raise?

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hope that clears up some of what I was trying to say before.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, it does and I hope I wasn't rude in my initial reply to you.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how the rest of the table was playing

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't been there that long to get a real good feel for it either.

[ QUOTE ]
maybe 12xBB was enough of a stack that you felt you could really make a run for the FT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this was the critical flaw in my thought process. In hindsight I don't think 12BB was even close considering the fact that I may not get another good spot to chip up again in the near future (not as good as spot as I have right here).

[ QUOTE ]
But in my mind, you have to call this because of the chance that you're ahead against his TPGK, ahead against his semi-bluff, or that you still have some out against his flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

I see a lot of talk in this thread about how Fishman is bluffing - and a lot of it would imply that he is bluffing a large percentage of the time here. (I'm not saying that you are implying that but a lot of posts are). I think it is rediculous to assume he is bluffing as often as people are implying in this thread. I also think that my thought process during the hand was a little off and I should not have disregarded the possibility entirely. I think he is bluffing/semi-bluffing a small percentage of the time here and has me beat the vast majority of the time... but that doesn't mean that I think my fold was right.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
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I read a few of the replys and no one mentioned what they thought Fish put YOU on. I think your check raise on the flop shows real strength, either two pair, a set, or a flush draw. When the flush card hits on fourth street and you lead out, I am really thinking Fish puts your most likely hand at J-something of hearts. I don't put Fish on AA or KK with a heart (a flop reraise certainly would have been appropriate with those hands, hearts or none). I also don't think Fish would expect you to lay down a hand that he put you on on the flop (two pair, set, now made flush). IMHO, I don't believe this is a semi-bluff. I am thinking Fish is expecting a call here. I think you're beat (but then again, all my friends tell me I'm weak-tight, so maybe I just have no balls). Harrington or not, I make this lay down.


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Or, Fischman is stealing on the flop and SB resteals. Fisch calls and blows him off his hand on scary turn cards, with hero making a nice continuating looking bet that's pretty small given pot size.


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Yup, the check-raise on the flop looks like a resteal against a limper, and the turn bet is a continuation bet that is small enough that the OP can still get off the hand and have some chips to play with.

ts-


[/ QUOTE ]

I think Occam's Razor kind of applies to this line of thinking. It just isn't very likely that this is a steal/re-steal/re-re-steal situation. Are those situations really that common? It has not been my experience.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see a lot of talk in this thread about how Fishman is bluffing - and a lot of it would imply that he is bluffing a large percentage of the time here. (I'm not saying that you are implying that but a lot of posts are). I think it is rediculous to assume he is bluffing as often as people are implying in this thread. I also think that my thought process during the hand was a little off and I should not have disregarded the possibility entirely. I think he is bluffing/semi-bluffing a small percentage of the time here and has me beat the vast majority of the time... but that doesn't mean that I think my fold was right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Has you beat with *what* the vast majority of the time? What do you put him on, exactly a flush? From what, a bet followed by a call of a pot sized checkraise? I think he pushes almost anything on that turn that he calls the flop to begin with, so the question is what he calls the CR with - and he's got to figure he has a ton of bluff outs. My range for him would be something like 'decent jack, draw, 44, overpair' probably in that order.

I think you are beat here a fair deal, maybe even over half the time, but it's not anywhere near the 'vast majority'.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I think the flop was very dangerous against a top player and I would have played it very differently. I think the fact you're playing against Scott Fischman is extremely important. I would have bet the flop or checked and called against a top player. I think against weak competition, what you did was fine. Against a top player that makes his living off of limping and coming over the top with strong implied odds, you gave him a road map. If a flush or straight card didn't come, I would then bet strongly. I think the implied odds were sufficient once you check-raised to give him a reason to call your raise with a drawing hand. Given that you already check raised this was no pure bluff although I'm guessing he has a much wider range of hands than we give him credit for, however I don't think he has a set or he would have put you all-in after you check raised. I think you played the hand like two pair or a set. If you had a high/nut flush, he was probably thinking you would check at the turn. In the actual scenario I would not have bet the turn and in the actual scenario I would have folded. I would play the player in this situation.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I really think this hand feels like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I doubt he limps with AA/KK - he probably didn't want to fold AJo preflop but didn't want to risk a lot of chips when he could be out of position - and he could still try to win a small pot postflop with little risk.

On the flop, he leads out with his TPTK and decides to call against what might be basic blind defense, and besides he probably figures he has heart scare card outs.

On the turn, he isn't way behind anything and figures he might be ahead or able to get you to fold anything that isn't a made flush.

I think the pot is too big for you to fold here.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

I picked 900 total as sort of a ballpark figure, just a guesstimate. It charges draws but still leaves you room to get off the hand if things go badly. As for later in the hand, I don't think its an inflection point per se. I think you need to call because even if its unlikely you are ahead, you will be ahead/suck-out enough to make it +EV. Given how huge the pot is Fischman doesn't need to have something other than the flush very often for the call to be profitable.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fischman
 

It has generally been my experience that when you don't listen to the betting action you are bound for trouble (you've shown strength and he has shown even more strength). Most people would not make a play like Fischman did here without being ahead. What I keep coming back to in my analysis of this hand is that Fischman would not give you pot odds to call his push unless he was ahead or unless he thought you are a pro-level player, since most amateurs would call here based on pots odds, needing to make a move soon, etc.

OTOH - a friend of mine got busted (197th place) by Fischman on a semi-bluff by Fischman. Friend had KQ, Fischman had JT (sorry I don't know all the details regard stack sizes, position, suits, etc.). The flop came KQx, friend bet 1/2 the pot, Fischman pushed all-in, friend called, Fischman hits his OESD and busted friend. One detail I was given however, was that Fischman had friend well covered going into this hand.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

Why is everyone trying to put Fischman on one hand? There is a very wide range of hands he could have. He could have 109s, j10s, KJs, qJs, aJs, J10o, KJo, qJo, A4o, A8o, A4s, A8s or two random card the made a straight/flush draw with either a back door or a pair and over card.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

If he had AA/KK it would be better to wait for the turn since if he pushes the flop he doesnt get called by anything he beats. If he waits to the turn he can hope you commit yourself with a J. I think AA/KK with a heart are at least possibilities here.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

If I have half my stack in the middle. Im calling, I think you folded the winner anyways.

Some numbers
 

I want to assign some numbers to some of this stuff mainly because that is how I will get a better feel for this hand.

First… here are the hand combos I think could be semi-bluffing. I’ve also included the frequency I think he would play these hands this way pre-flop. Maybe I’m wrong, but I wouldn’t be limping with these hands very often in this situation and I doubt Scott is either. Maybe I’m wrong – maybe you guys are limping with these hands more often than I am.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Hands Fishman could semi-bluff with: % he limps
AhAx 3 10% 0.3
KhKx 3 10% 0.3
AhJx 2 10% 0.2
KhJx 2 10% 0.2
QhJx 2 10% 0.2
</pre><hr />

I just did that to show that of all the hands he could have his semi-bluffing hands is a small fraction of those.

Now, let’s run some real numbers on my equity in this spot.

My pot odds are:
8875:2400 or 3.7:1… I need an equity of about 21.4% to call in this spot (and this disregards the concept of “you’re broke, you’re out” – which I’m not even sure if it applies or not).

Case 1:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Win %
Fishman dry bluffing: 10% 100% 10.0%
Fishman semi-bluffing: 5% 80.4% 4.0%
Fishman has a flush or set: 85% 8.70% 7.4%
21.4%

</pre><hr />

This indicates I should have called.

Case 2:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Win %
Fishman dry bluffing: 5% 100% 5.0%
Fishman semi-bluffing: 5% 80.4% 4.0%
Fishman has a flush or set: 90% 8.70% 7.8%
16.8%
</pre><hr />

This indicates that I should fold. But it is close and I think “inflection point” concepts make this a probable call as well.

Case 3:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Win %
Fishman dry bluffing: 10% 100% 10.0%
Fishman semi-bluffing: 10% 80.4% 8.0%
Fishman has a flush or set: 80% 8.70% 7.0%
25.0%
</pre><hr />

And this one is a clear call.

I really think this is the type of analysis that we should be doing and then we should be arguing about the numbers. If I made any mistakes I would love for you to point them out.

As you can see, I do believe I made a mistake in this hand. But I do not think Fishman is bluffing anywhere close to as often as people have implied in this thread. I would love to hear people’s thoughts about the percentages I assigned above as maybe they should be lower.

Maybe it is even simpler and that because I invested half my stack I shouldn’t fold – but that seems like an oversimplification.

Re: WSOP $1500NL - Hand vs. Scott Fishman
 

i almost always love to lead out on 2 pair flops with 2 flush/2 straight flops. let them semi-bluff your bet and get it in there on the flop. if he has a set. well maybe you hit a jack.