WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

Assuming a field of 6,000 players, what do you think are the odds are of the following players winning it all:

a) Phil Ivey
b) Phil Hellmuth
c) MLG
d) Yourself (assuming that you play, even if you havent qualified)

After careful consideration, my answers are:
a) 2000:1
b) 2200:1
c) 2800:1
d) 2900:1

Thoughts?

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

Ivey,1600:1
Hellmuth: 1300:1
MLG: 20000:1
CSC: 8:1

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

Ivey - 2000:1
Hellmuth - 2000:1
MLG - 2000:1
Myself - 4:1

Seriously I think about 2000-2500 in the field can win, after that it will be all about the cards. The other 4000 donks just seed the prize pool, although some of these donks could easily make the money.
~Justin

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ivey,1600:1
Hellmuth: 1300:1
MLG: 20000:1
CSC: 8:1

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, I was typing the same jopke about myself being a favorite.
~Justin

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

You think Hellmuth has a better shot than Ivey? I disagree [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

From betfair. They have a restricted list of 100 players, highest place out of those 100:
a) Phil Ivey 38:1
b) Phil Hellmuth 44:1
c) MLG no odds
d) Greg Raymer 90:1

and to make the final table
a) Phil Ivey 50:1
b) Phil Hellmuth 50:1
c) MLG No odds
d) Gigabet 120:1

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

[ QUOTE ]
You think Hellmuth has a better shot than Ivey? I disagree [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ivey's still a young whippersnapper. Hellmuth has the years of experience, superior intelligence, and attitude. As much of a incomplete human being as he may be, the kid can play poker. I don't dispute that Ivey is the best of "our" generation, but Hellmuth is still better. Best in poker, IMHO. How old is Ivey, anyway?

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

How dare they not offer odds on me!

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

[ QUOTE ]
How old is Ivey, anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

No clue. I agree with you that Hellmuth is the best, but I think Ivey has a better game for the size of the field.

Vegas Odds:
 

The sports gambling forum offered these odds.

Re: Vegas Odds:
 

[ QUOTE ]
The sports gambling forum offered these odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I saw that. Those are a jopke

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You think Hellmuth has a better shot than Ivey? I disagree [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ivey's still a young whippersnapper. Hellmuth has the years of experience, superior intelligence, and attitude.

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil Hellmuth has superior ATTITUDE than anyone, let alone Phil Ivey? Phil Ivey is a stone cold killer at the table, Hellmuth is a stone cold crybaby. Annie Duke nearly sent him into a coma. He's a smart guy, I like him, but...Ivey is a much better player IMHO.

Ivey 100:1
Hellmuth: 750:1
Brunson 100:1
Lederer 100:1
Greenstien: 250:1
Raymer 750:1
Me 5,000:1
Men the Master 100:1
Moneymaker 4,999:1

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

I think Gigabet at 120:1 would be a great bet for shits and giggles to make the final table.

Blackjack

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

[ QUOTE ]
How dare they not offer odds on me!

[/ QUOTE ]

They read your avatar and realized you weren't thinking clearly. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

Dan Harrington 450:1
Phil Ivey 500:1
Helmuth 500:1
Me: 3000:1

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

ivey was 27 last time i read his age....could be 28 now

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

The real odds: [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

a) Phil Ivey 600:1
b) Phil Hellmuth 700:1
c) MLG 1000:1
d) Che 13421:1

Sidenote: Anyone who thinks that there is a person alive who is even 3 times more likely to win than Raymer has not been paying attention IMHO.

Later,
Che

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

How can you seriously say that Ivey, or anyone for that matter, is 600:1? That would mean that it would be correct for him to fold any preflop all-in where he is less than a 10:1 favorite.

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

[ QUOTE ]
That would mean that it would be correct for him to fold any preflop all-in where he is less than a 10:1 favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

That might be the implication of being 10x better than average in a 10-player sit-n-go, but I don't think that's the case in a 6600 player multi with high stack/blind ratios.

Three things are required to win the WSOP:

1. Ability to bully effectively.
2. Willingness to get your chips in when you're the favorite.
3. Good cards.

Ivey has 1&2 in spades and no one can control #3 so I rate his chances of winning much, much higher than average. 600:1 may be too optimistic, but not by too much IMHO.

You win multi's like the WSOP by taking your shots when you are the favorite over and over without ever taking a crippling bad beat, not by folding everything but the nuts because you're "a better player."

Seems like there have been discussions like this one before. Hmmmmm...

BTW I wasn't trying to be exact with my odds. If that had been my goal, I would have said:

Che 18372:1 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

I'm giving myself 12,000-18,000:1. I have no idea what to expect as far as the skill level of the field, so I'm just guessing that I'm about 1/2 to 1/3 as good as the average player.

Your odds on the pros look close enough for me.

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

MLG, I was on the phone with betfair (on an unrelated matter) and they advised me as follows:

[ QUOTE ]
Hi *****,

Further to our phone call earlier regarding the omission of Michael
Goodman from the market of the Poker tournament, I have been advised
that you need to call our helpdesk on 08700110444 and they can take
all the details and forward them to the correct people to find out if
they think that this person is appropriate to include in the
'running' as it were.

Hope this answers your question.

Kind regards,

**********
Betfair



[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if you'd be considered appropriate...

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You think Hellmuth has a better shot than Ivey? I disagree [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ivey's still a young whippersnapper. Hellmuth has the years of experience, superior intelligence, and attitude. As much of a incomplete human being as he may be, the kid can play poker. I don't dispute that Ivey is the best of "our" generation, but Hellmuth is still better. Best in poker, IMHO. How old is Ivey, anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil Hellmuth's intelligence is superior to that of Phil Ivey? That's a ridiculous statement isn't it? How would you even begin to prove that?

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

I break the tournament into 3 phases.

Phase III: 100 players or less.

Any player surviving to this level has the skills to have a 1/100 chance of winning. Small adjustments can be made for better players, based on prior achievements, but the marginal difference between Phil and Phil is small.

Phase II Less than 1000 players greater than 100

One in ten players advance from phase II to Phase III. I estimate that a top tier pro could advance no more than 2-2.5 times out of 10. Most of the I-donkeys are gone.

Phase I: more than 1000 players less than 10,000

Top pros get through 70% of the time.
Advanced players get through 50% of the time.
Intermediate players get through 20% of the time.
Almost no beginners pony up 10K.

a) Phil Ivey 1/100 X 2.5/10 X 7/10 = ~1/350
b) Phil Hellmuth 1/100 X 2.5/10 X 7/10 = ~1/350
c) MLG 1/100 X 1.5/10 X 5/10 = 1/800
d) Me 1/100 X .3/10 X 2.5/10 = 1/8000

I might give the best pros like Hellmuth a bump to 1/300 for his prior wins.

I think its interesting to note that in the past we have had many repeat winners. (They did have much smaller fields, and fewer top flight pros).

According to my model there are 30-50 marquee names that have a 1/350 chance of winning, so I think ~1/10 times we will have a big name winner.

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

I'm interested what people think the odds are that a player who qualified through PokerStars will win. It seems like they'll probably send ~1000 of the 6600 slots, and a fair number of those are probably going to be pretty skilled players. 4:1 sound good?

Re: WSOP Main Event: You be the oddsmaker
 

2 to 3 making the final table? Yeah that sounds about right.