The continuing river saga
 

In my continuing effort to work on my river play, I give you this hand. Very first hand at the table, and none of the characters involved have any previous notes. What is your river play and why. I would really appreciate a reason. Thanks in advance.

-Jaran



Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (18.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (13.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero...

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Without reads, this is difficult. Preflop capper seems to have AK, but the presence of another caller makes the hand more strenuous. I would check here, it is the seemingly weak play, and I am willing to get flamed here, but a better hand will most likely call, and AK will fold.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

This is very read dependent. I'd check behind. I think you are most likely behind. The board was pretty drawless, so I can't figure out what hand UTG+1 would be staying in with that doesn't beat you. I also think you are only going to get called by hands that beat you.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

I think I check behind here

reasoning: without a read, we'll assume a thinking opponent. we're capped pf, so mp3 probably has something in the range of AA-JJ or AK-AJ (we'll give him some liberal non-pair requirments). He knows we capped as well, so he probably has us on the same range.

He doesn't go nuts on the flop, which could mean a couple of things. He has UI AK and is calling down, has AA-JJ and is trying to trap, or has KK-QQ and is scared that you have AA-KK.

He doesn't go nuts on the turn, so we can probably rule out QQ, JJ and stuff like KQ and AQ. If he had AA and was waiting to pop the turn, he didn't, so we can rule that out too.

His check on the river blank doesn't tell us a lot.

The reasonable hands I have left are a scared KK and a drawing AK. AK probably won't call the river, and KK has us beat. So I check behind.

I bet UTG+1 had a BDFD off the flop and figured the pot was too large to fold it. Other than that he could have just about anything

Re: The continuing river saga
 

MP3 capped but has quieted since. Think capping hands as maybe AA-TT, AKs (I know the book says QQ or something, but lots of folks may cap w/ JJ-TT - I don't but I've seen it done on Party .5/1). Now if he had AA-JJ, you'd think he'd have shown aggression somewhere here, as he may think he has the best hand, unless he assumes you have made a set. Same w/ A-Q suited, maybe show some aggression on the turn. Funny, I might think he had TT except that you have that, which makes it much less likely he does. So I'm thinking he has A-K. Can anyone see a reason for him to play AA-KK (or QQ-JJ) like this?
I find the passivity on UTG+1's part hard to read. I worry that he's got K-J or J-10 and didn't bet the flop for fear of being outkicked, but wants a showdown. However he could be playing pocket 9's or eights to showdown. These are the only hands I can think of that he would call with that you beat. MP3 probably won't call if he has A-K unimproved. So I think I would check behind. There don't seem to be enough hands you beat that will call you.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

I value bet because everyone is calling down and the five doesnt help anyone. If you check, you induce a bet then have to overcall, which I think is bad. So this is a case of if you are going to call a bet, bet it yourself.

No one agrees with me here, please explain why betting is bad (everyone only said why checking is good). Well, if you check, what do you do when someone bets?

Re: The continuing river saga
 

No reads?

I think I check this behind. I'm mostly concerned about UTG+1 here. What would he call down with like this? There are no draws out there on the flop, so he must have SOME kind of pair. Is he the type to not raise TP on this flop after the preflop action?

At any rate, I don't think you're getting called by anything you beat on this river. Check it behind.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Recheck my position.

-Jaran

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Hero is last to act. This is a straight-forward check. You're not going to get called by worse hands.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

[ QUOTE ]
I value bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think you're ahead often enough in this spot to make this a bet for value? I think MP3 has AK, but I think UTG+1 may very well have a J.

It's extremely read-dependent though. If UTG+1 is the type to call down with any pair on the flop, then I bet this river. Otherwise, I check.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

edit: checks behind (mistyped "calls" - more coffee please)

I don't like the 2 overs, just because they aren't betting doesn't mean they haven't paired the J or Q. They may have gone passive due to heavy preflop action, fear of being outkicked, fear of an overpair (induced by preflop cap), retarded slowplay (JJ), etc.

I think vs 2 opponents in this spot you should take the free showdown.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is last to act. This is a straight-forward check. You're not going to get called by worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
you may, but the problem is that better hands than yours will also call (Jx, Qx) They're probably afraid you've got something big due to your pre-flop aggression.

if this is HU on the river, i bet it all day long. worse hands may be throwing a hail mary, hoping to chop Ax with you. plus, if you fold a worse hand, there's nothing wrong w/ establishing a little psychological bullying.

here, closing the action, I'd just take a free showdown.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

thanks I'm a dummy. Closing the action I like a check.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-Jaran

Re: The continuing river saga
 

[ QUOTE ]
I value bet because everyone is calling down and the five doesnt help anyone. If you check, you induce a bet then have to overcall, which I think is bad. So this is a case of if you are going to call a bet, bet it yourself.

No one agrees with me here, please explain why betting is bad (everyone only said why checking is good). Well, if you check, what do you do when someone bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting is bad because only a better hand will call. Therefore it is not much of a "value" bet. And hero acts last here. He has the option of just checking behind. He won't have to face another bet. Checking is the right decision imo.

edit: Sorry, I didn't see all the responses. I see that this has been stated a few times already.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Well, none of the obvious draws were completed by the last card, but there are two overs to your Tens. Will a worse hand call for one more bet? MP3 capped preflop, so I put him either on AK or another big pair which is likely bigger than yours, but for some reason he is too passive to bet/raise with it himself postflop, which makes it more likely that he has AK and he will not call another bet with Ace-high. UTG+1 has done nothing but check-call the entire time because he's too impressed by you and MP3. If UTG+1 is positionally aware at all, then he limped with something decent and either the Q or J hit him, though it's also possible he has a pocket pair like 77-99. If UTG+1 is a fish who will play any hand anywhere and call to the river with a pair of 5's then it would be an obvious value-bet, but we just don't know. Anyway, because MP3 is very unlikely to call with a worse hand, and UTG+1 is unknown and there are two overs to your Tens, I'm checking this through because I don't think you will be called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time (MP3 is almost never paying off with a worse hand).

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Knuckles to the table.

MP3 either has you crushed, or isn't calling with his AK. as for UTG+1, there are no draws on the flop, and he calls. Then the turn comes another overcard to your pair, and he calls again. That scares me enough to check behind on the river.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

Check behind. You aren't going to get a better hand to fold here, and there is no hand you beat that is likely to call given the previous action.

The importance of reads
 

I posted this hand for a couple of reasons. The first is a pretty basic example of a river check behind, and the reason I asked for why you would do what you suggested. The second is to stress the value of reads. After this hand, this river is a value bet against these two opponents. MP3 capped w/A3o, and UTG+1 called down w/K7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. This read pushes the river to a thin value bet, IMO, against these opponants.

-Jaran

Re: The importance of reads
 

Clearly, the +EV play is to add them to your buddy list.

Re: The importance of reads
 

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-Jaran

Re: The continuing river saga
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's extremely read-dependent though. If UTG+1 is the type to call down with any pair on the flop, then I bet this river. Otherwise, I check.

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG+1 is the type to call w/any pair doesn't this put you behind a fair enough times to still warrant a checkthrough. Do you really think he'll call you with 5s, 6s, or ducks esp w/all the aggression being shown? I personally find calling stations extremely difficult to read - they may call w/weak crap but their inability to bet legit hands makes this check-behind an easy one.

Re: The importance of reads
 

[ QUOTE ]
After this hand, this river is a value bet against these two opponents. MP3 capped w/A3o, and UTG+1 called down w/K7 . This read pushes the river to a thin value bet, IMO, against these opponants.


[/ QUOTE ]
In order for this to be a value bet against both of these players on the river you would have to know that they would call your river bet with hands like A hi or something worse than a pair of Tens on that board. Does this hand really give you that information?
Otherwise they are only calling the bet when they are ahead, and is then -EV for you. I don't think we get that information from this hand. All we know is that they will hang on in big pots with an overcard to the board. Just my opinion, although this may be reflecting my naturally weak-tight tendencies. I would check behind here now and still in the future without further information on these players.

Re: The importance of reads
 

You're right from this hand. I should have stated that after a few more hands, it became clear that at least one would have called here, if not both. This hand was the beginning of the read. Good point.

-Jaran

Re: The importance of reads
 

[ QUOTE ]
I posted this hand for a couple of reasons. The first is a pretty basic example of a river check behind, and the reason I asked for why you would do what you suggested. The second is to stress the value of reads. After this hand, this river is a value bet against these two opponents. MP3 capped w/A3o, and UTG+1 called down w/K7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. This read pushes the river to a thin value bet, IMO, against these opponants.

-Jaran

[/ QUOTE ]

NH don't you hate when you miss value bets, I sure do .. but there's no way to bet this without that info beforehand

Re: The continuing river saga
 

check behind. the flop is too discoordinated to hope they are both paying off with total junk.

Re: The continuing river saga
 

I think this hand boils down to the fact that you have two opponents left. I don't think they both call with worse hands very often. The probability that you have them both beat can't be higher than about 35% (If you beat them both 1/2 the time, which may be generous, you beat them both only 25% of the time). You may also be check raised. I think this makes it a hand to check behind.