Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

This hand occurred in a live 130 person tournament last week at my local casino. The hand is still bugging me so I would like to get some feedback.

The tournament is down to 40 players (top 15 pay) and we just had a break so I know that I am 2nd chip leader, with chip leader seated to my immediate left. He is a total donk and has seen chips fall into his lap despite his play. There are about 300,000 chips in play. I have about 22,000 and he has over 30,000.

Blinds are 150-300 with a 50 ante. I am in the SB with As2s. Folded to button (about 7,000) who limps, I complete, and BB (chip leader) checks.

Flop comes AT2 with 2 diamonds. I check, chip leader bets 1,000, and the big blind calls. I serioulsy thought about folding right there but decided to declare (not literally) I had 2-pair and raised to 4,000. BB, almost instantly says raise you 20,000. Button folds quickly.

Now the only things I know for sure are that this guy would raise AA, TT, 100% preflop. I also have a suspicion he would raise AT in that spot but I can't be nearly as sure.

Any thoughts?????

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

Call and flip your cards. What sitation are you waiting for?

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

very tough spot.

is BB an aggressive donk? would he do this with something you have beat or is he capable of semibluffing w/ a draw?

I might find a fold here since our chip position is so nice.

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

Fold and move on...Blinds too small and stack too big to risk your tourney with top/bottom, esp if you know you can get the chips later

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

Judging by your 'reads', I think you're 100 percent ahead in this hand at this point. But I think he's got some outs - maybe KQd or KJd ... heck, some kind of a diamond draw with maybe a gutshot out, too.

Feel like gambling? Call if you do.

Otherwise, muck and bust the donk later. But I think you're ahead right now, and I'm tempted to call.

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now the only things I know for sure are that this guy would raise AA, TT, 100% preflop. I also have a suspicion he would raise AT in that spot but I can't be nearly as sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Way ahead or Waaaay behind...don't you love these decisions. I agree that Donk probably would have raised it up if he had a premium hand, so I would probably discount him having a set. He might also use his stack to punish limpers with AT, so you might take away top two pair.

I think he is on either the flush draw or a backdoor straight, or a combination of the two (J:diamond, 9:diamond ?).

That being said, if your weak-tight, lay it down and find a better spot to take his chips. Bad beats and suckouts happen live as easily as they do online.

If your a little looser and don't mind pushing small edges, then this is an easy call with the range of hands he could hold. Nothing like having 20% of the chips in play to dominate a tournament.

Hope it worked out but since you posted and it's been bugging you, I'm guessing not.

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

Very observant. Yes I did lay this one down face-up causing quite a stir, and it bothers me for 4 reasons:

1) Why did I raise to 4,000 if I was not prepared to go with my hand? Would I play it strong out of position when every card in the deck could make his hand (flush draw, gut shot, Ax)?

2) Donk said I had him. I asked what did you have and he said Ace-Ten. I said that was top 2. He said oh, I mean, Ace....something....and he trailed off mumbling.

3) I got moved 5 minutes later and Donk gave all of his chips to the table within the hour.

4) I folded and finished 2nd for the second consecutive time in that tournament where 1st is twice the payout that 2nd is.

So essentially, I got what I asked for, I lived another day and had a great finish using my remaining chips. In hindsight, I would have called and went balls out for 1st.

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

Against an idiot who can bust me gambling is not a favorite
proposition of mine. But when I have two pair against a donkey with a flush and gutshot draw, who may have a solitary Ace, I can't find too many better spots to put em all in. I think this is a definite call. You are giving up way the best of it by folding and waiting for a better moment. I don't think you'll find too many sweeter than this.

Bruce

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

just curious if the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was there and if he couldn't possibly have the pair of aces + flush draw. If it wasn't there that's what I would have put him on. I think if the board paired 10s, kickers probably wouldn't matter with the 5th card so I think he had ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] low if that was a possibility

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

T2o

Re: Live Tourney - Very Tough Spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
...I folded and finished 2nd for the second consecutive time in that tournament...

[/ QUOTE ]

I can only imagine what your post would be like if you called and lost. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

By definintion, the Donk does not understand the theory of poker. He also does not understand that a checkraise is a declaration of strength and that he should be treading very cautiously. Of course, being a Donk, he insta-raises t20k.

I don't blame you for going into the tank. If he was holding Ax, your bottom pair could have gotten counterfeited very easily. And if he made a better second pair on the turn or river... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I tried plugging some possible hands that Donk might have into twodimes. 2 out of 3 of my samples show you are a 65% favorite. Of course I had to guess on what the board actually had for the flush but you get the idea.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1018168
pokenum -h as 2s - jd 9d -- ah td 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 2d Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2s 665 67.17 325 32.83 0 0.00 0.672
Jd 9d 325 32.83 665 67.17 0 0.00 0.328

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1018171
pokenum -h as 2s - ac 5d -- ah td 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 2d Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2s 646 65.25 189 19.09 155 15.66 0.731
Ac 5d 189 19.09 646 65.25 155 15.66 0.269

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1018155
pokenum -h as 2s - ad 8d -- ah td 2d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Td 2d Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2s 445 44.95 465 46.97 80 8.08 0.490
Ad 8d 465 46.97 445 44.95 80 8.08 0.510

Congrats on the 2nd, especially back to back. You're obviously playing well and just need to refine some leaks here and there.

GG, Steve