WSOP Odds
 

Alan Cunningham 1000-1

Alex Brenes 2500-1

Amir Vahidi 1000-1

Andy Bloch 2500-1

Annie Duke 1250-1

Antonio (Magician) Esfandiari 1000-1

Asher Derei 2000-1

Barney Boatman 2000-1

Barry Greenstein 500-1

Ben Affleck 2500-1

Billy Baxter 2000-1

Bob Stupak 3000-1

Brent Carter 1000-1

Carlos Mortensen 750-1

Chip Jett 1000-1

Chris (Jesus) Ferguson 400-1

Chris Moneymaker 2000-1

Dan (The Man) Harrington 750-1

Daniel Negreanu 500-1

Dave (Devilfish) Ulliott 500-1

Dave (El Blondie) Colclough 1000-1

David (Chip) Reese 2000-1

David Singer 1500-1

David Williams 2000-1

Dewey Tomko 3000-1

Doyle (Dolly) Brunson 1250-1

Ed Norton 8500-1

Eric Brenes 2500-1

Erick Lindgren 1000-1

Erik Sagstrom 1500-1

Erik Seidel 400-1

Freddy Deeb 1000-1

Gabe Kaplan 2500-1

Gary (The Choirboy) Jones 1000-1

Greg (Fossilman) Raymer 2000-1

Gus Hansen 400-1

Hassan Habib 2500-1

Howard (The Professor) Lederer 350-1

Huck Seed 400-1

Humberto Brenes 1500-1

Jean Robert Bellande 2500-1

Jennifer Harman 1250-1

Joe (The Elegance) Beevers 1500-1

John (World) Hennigan 750-1

John Juanda 400-1

Johnny (Oriental Express) Chan 750-1

Julian Gardner 1000-1

Kathy Liebert 2500-1

Layne Flack 500-1

Leonardo DiCaprio 8500-1

Lucy (Golden Ovaries) Rokach 5000-1

Marcel (Flying Dutchman) Luske 400-1

Matt Damon 8500-1

Men (The Master) Nguyen 750-1

Mike (The Mouth) Matusow 1500-1

Neil (Bad Beat) Channing 1500-1

Paul Darden Jr 2000-1

Paul Phillips 500-1

Phil Ivey 300-1

Phil Laak 1000-1

Phill Hellmuth 300-1

Prahlad Friedman 1000-1

Ram Vaswani 500-1

Sam Farha 2000-1

Scott Fischman 2000-1

Scott Wilson 5000-1

Scotty Nguyen 750-1

TJ Cloutier 750-1

Ted Forrest 2000-1

Toby (Spiderman) Maguire 5000-1

Tomer Benvenitsi 2500-1
[Click button to place your wager.]

Re: WSOP Odds *Final Tbale Odds
 

Alan Betson 250-1

Alan Goehring 200-1

Alex Brenes 200-1

Allen Cunningham 200-1

Amir Vahedi 150-1

An Tran 250-1

Andrew Bloch 250-1

Andy Bloch 250-1

Annie Duke 200-1

Antonio (Magician) Esfandiari 150-1

Asher Derei 200-1

Barny (Barmy) Boatman 300-1

Barry Greenstein 75-1

Ben Affleck 250-1

Ben Roberts 300-1

Bill Gazes 250-1

Blair Rodman 250-1

Brent Carter 250-1

Carlos Mortensen 75-1

Chau Giang 200-1

Chip Jett 200-1

Chris (AA) Grigorian 200-1

Chris (Jesus) Ferguson 75-1

Chris (Syracuse) Tsiprailidis 250-1

Chris Bigler 200-1

Chris Moneymaker 300-1

Dan (The Man) Harrington 200-1

Dan Alspach 250-1

Dan Heimiller 250-1

Daniel Larsson 250-1

Daniel Negreanu 40-1

Danny Nguyen 250-1

Dave (Devilfish) Ulliott 75-1

Dave (El Blondie) Colclough 200-1

David (Chip) Reese 300-1

David (The Dragon) Pham 200-1

David Chiu 200-1

David Levi 250-1

David Plastik 250-1

David Singer 200-1

David Williams 250-1

Dennis Waterman 250-1

Dewey Tomko 225-1

Diego Cordovez 250-1

Doyle (Dolly) Brunson 200-1

Eric Brenes 200-1

Erick Lindgren 200-1

Erik Sagstrom 250-1

Erik Seidel 75-1

Evelyn Ng 300-1

Farzad Bonyadi 250-1

Frankie ODell 250-1

Gabe Kaplan 250-1

Gabe Thaler 200-1

Gary (The Choirboy) Jones 200-1

Gavin Griffin 200-1

Greg (Fossilman) Raymer 250-1

Gus Hansen 60-1

Harry Demetriou 250-1

Hasan Habib 200-1

Howard (The Profesor) Lederer 60-1

Hoyt Corkins 200-1

Huck Seed 75-1

Humberto Brenes 150-1

Isabelle Mercier 300-1

James Van Elstyne 250-1

Jeff Schulman 250-1

Jennifer Harman 200-1

Jesse Jones 250-1

Jim Meehan 200-1

Joe (The Elegance) Beevers 250-1

Johan Storakers 250-1

John (Miami) Cernuto 200-1

John (World) Hennigan 75-1

John Bonetti 250-1

John Esposito 250-1

John Juanda 75-1

John Kabbaj 250-1

John Robert Bellande 200-1

John Shipley 200-1

Johnny (Oriental Exp) Chan 75-1

Josh Arieh 200-1

Julian Gardner 200-1

Julian Thew 300-1

Kassem (Freddy) Deeb 200-1

Kathy Liebert 200-1

Keith (Jet) Lehr 250-1

Keith (The Camel) Hawkins 250-1

Kenna James 250-1

Layne Flack 60-1

Lee Nelson 250-1

Lee Watkinson 250-1

Lucy Rokach 200-1

Marcel (Flying Dutchman) Luske 60-1

Marin De Knijff 250-1

Marty (Mad) Wilson 300-1

Mel Judah 200-1

Mel Meiner 250-1

Men (The Master) Nguyen 75-1

Mickey Appleman 250-1

Mike (The Mouth) Matusow 200-1

Mike Carson 200-1

Mike Laing 300-1

Mike Sexton 250-1

Minh Ly 200-1

Neil (Badbeat) Channing 300-1

Oneil Longston 250-1

Padraig Parkinson 250-1

Pascal Perrault 250-1

Paul Darden Jr 200-1

Paul Maxfield 200-1

Paul Phillips 75-1

Paul Wolfe 250-1

Peter (The Poet) Costa 250-1

Phil Gordon 200-1

Phil Hellmuth 60-1

Phil Ivey 40-1

Phil Laak 250-1

Philippe Marmorstein 250-1

Prahlad Friedman 200-1

Raj Kattamuri 250-1

Ram (Crazy Horse) Vaswani 75-1

Richard Tatalovich 250-1

Rob Hollink 250-1

Robert Williamson III 250-1

Rory Liffey 250-1

Ross Boatman 300-1

Rumit Somaiya 300-1

Sam Farha 250-1

Sam Grizzle 300-1

Scott Fishman 200-1

Scott Gray 250-1

Scott Wilson 500-1

Scotty Nguyen 75-1

Simon (Aces) Trumper 300-1

Stan Goldstein 250-1

Surinder Sunar 200-1

TJ Cloutier 75-1

Ted Forrest 200-1

Thomas (Thunder) Keller 250-1

Thor Hansen 250-1

Toby (Spiderman) Maguire 300-1

Tom (Captain) Franklin 250-1

Tom McEvoy 300-1

Tomer Benvenitsi 250-1

Tony (The Lizard) Bloom 250-1

Tony (Tony D) Tam Duong 250-1

Tony (Tony G) Guoga 250-1

Tony Cousineau 200-1

Tony Ma 200-1

Toto Leonidas 200-1

Tuan Le 250-1

Willie Tann 250-1

Yosh Nakano 250-1

Young Phan 150-1
[Click button to place your wager.]

Re: WSOP Odds *Final Tbale Odds
 

Uhh, why does Ben Affleck have slighly worse odds than Jennifer Harman and other very very good, respected professionals? Why is Ben Affleck even on this list?

Re: WSOP Odds *Final Tbale Odds
 

Ask my site? Just thought some of you may get a kick out of it.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

Are these odds right??? In a field of 6600 players how can so many big time/name players be over 1000-1? David Williams was second last year as he's 2000-1.

Ted Forrest 2000-1?
Chip Reese 2000-1?
Raymer 20001?
Moneymaker 2000-1?
Sam Farha 2000-1
Who's offering these lines?

Re: WSOP Odds *Final Tbale Odds
 

Here's a tip for ya: BET THE FIELD

Re: WSOP Odds *Final Tbale Odds
 

Why is Ben Affleck even on this list?

people will bet him, and the sportsbook will make a profit

Re: WSOP Odds *Final Tbale Odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is Ben Affleck even on this list?

people will bet him, and the sportsbook will make a profit

[/ QUOTE ]

also, he HAS won a couple tournaments, including, i believe, the $5000 buy in open california poker championship. he's not a celibrity hack, he's actually a pretty good player, and i'd guess that he's in the top 25% of the feild. (not saying that he has a snowball's chance in the ME, but he's no noob, either)

Re: WSOP Odds *Final Tbale Odds
 

people will bet him, and the sportsbook will make a profit

same reason baseball world series future bets on the cubs, yanks and BoSox are always artifically low....

Re: WSOP Odds
 

Is there a line for the field?

Re: WSOP Odds
 

WHERE are you getting these odds at??

Re: WSOP Odds
 

These odds can't be real, if someone is offering them I will bet my entire bankroll.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

I don't get it, what's so great about these odds? They're much, much better than any I've seen on the sites I visit, but they still don't seem like anything to get excited about.

2000-1 in a field of 6600 seems about right to me. It's the same as getting +200 on a pro you like who is at a final table of 7 people, with a couple other pros and several amateurs. Am I missing something?

Re: WSOP Odds
 

I can't even imagine someone being 300-1 in a field of 6600. I can't even imagine anyone ever having such a huge edge. Hell, maybe I'm wrong, but I can't even imagine how.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't even imagine someone being 300-1 in a field of 6600. I can't even imagine anyone ever having such a huge edge. Hell, maybe I'm wrong, but I can't even imagine how.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone could be 1000-1 in a field of 6600. If any site offers a field bet, I will be betting as much as they let me.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

Oh, okay, so we do agree that the odds are still too low, even though much better than other books.

So what did you possibly want to bet your entire bankroll on?

Re: WSOP Odds *Final Tbale Odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why is Ben Affleck even on this list?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you didn't notice Leonardi DiCaprio on the list then huh?

Re: WSOP Odds
 

I think a 1000-1 is within the realm of possible. Maybe even 800-1 for the top 5 players, but 300-1? hah.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

Alex/Mugaaz, what did you want to bet on? I think we all want to make a field bet, if we can find one, but what out of anything, did you like from the lists above?

Re: WSOP Odds
 

Anyone listed from 300-1 to 800-1 looks good to me!
If someone pulled the Matador from tilt they STILL wouldn't be 300 to 1!

Re: WSOP Odds
 

Okay, I'm completely confused at your understanding of odds vs. mine. I thought we all agreed that these are BAD lines.

So why would you want to take one of them? You wouldn't be getting the right price. And if you meant taking the opposite side, you can't reverse the lines to bet against specific people. (And even if you could, would you really lay $50,000 to win a measly $100 on a 500:1 bet?)

That's why we're all hoping to find a field bet somewhere, right?

Re: WSOP Odds
 

Sorry If I'm confusing - I know absolutely nothing about sports betting. I assumed you could bet either side. To answer your question - Yes, I sure would. It would be +EV and I can take the loss, there is nothing else worth considering.

P.S. As a funny side note, I think it's funny how people would view this as reckless, yet talk about how using the Martingale System on roulette is a safe way to play.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

Okay, it's all clear, I get it now. Sorry, but you usually can't take that side of the bet. Books aren't that dumb. They just want to take suckers' money, who want to bet on their favorite players, and don't even realize just how bad the odds they're getting are.

Although now that I've been looking at horse racing odds, these poker lines seem a little more reasonable. In the Belmont Stakes, the odds for the favorite are 1-1, in an 11 horse field, while the worst horse is 100-1. That's a wider discrepancy than I would normally think there is. If you applied the same odds to the WSOP field, the best pros would be 660-1 and the worst fools would be 60,000-1. I just don't think you can have as much an advantage in poker as horses do in racing, but by comparison it does make the lines a little less scummy.

Re: the P.S.: Which forum is dumb enough to allow that kind favorable treatment of Martingale talk? Those posters must drastically lower the IQ of 2+2. I had a buddy who tried that once, thinking that he would virtually always win little by little, and even if it were ever to go wrong on him, it would take many, many sessions of play over several trips. Think again. I think he set a record - he got wiped out in half an hour.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

I thought Sportsbooks set lines for bets on either side? I don't know much about sports / sports betting though. I don't think it's something I have any talent for. However, when I saw these odds I was like DING!


P.S. Check out other gambling forum =p

Field Odds for +EV
 

If you get all the bets listed on the origional post, the field has to pay 2.1 to 1 or more (acutally 2.08120090717027 to one or more) to make it a +EV for betting every single person and the field. If anybody finds a site offering this, feel free to let me know right goddamned now.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
I thought Sportsbooks set lines for bets on either side?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sportsbooks usually don't (e.g. you can't bet $100,000 to win $1000 that the Rockies won't win the world series this year), but exchanges like Betfair and Tradesports do allow you to take either side of any bet.

Some guy on Betfair figured he could make a few easy bucks by offering a 999-1 bet on a horse in the back of the field a horse race that was almost over. The front runner fell, and the next few horses either were tripped by the downed horse or had to really slow down to avoid it, and this horse in the back ran around them all and won, costing this guy hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought Sportsbooks set lines for bets on either side?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sportsbooks usually don't (e.g. you can't bet $100,000 to win $1000 that the Rockies won't win the world series this year), but exchanges like Betfair and Tradesports do allow you to take either side of any bet.

Some guy on Betfair figured he could make a few easy bucks by offering a 999-1 bet on a horse in the back of the field a horse race that was almost over. The front runner fell, and the next few horses either were tripped by the downed horse or had to really slow down to avoid it, and this horse in the back ran around them all and won, costing this guy hundreds of thousands of dollars.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's awesome.

Re: WSOP Odds
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sportsbooks usually don't (e.g. you can't bet $100,000 to win $1000 that the Rockies won't win the world series this year), but exchanges like Betfair and Tradesports do allow you to take either side of any bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

You could probably make more money in interest off of 100k than the $1,000 that would be won, if sportsbooks were smart they would offer bets like that, and make more in interest than they have to actually pay out.

Should I take this bet?
 

My book only has lines on players making the final table. David Williams is at something like 55-1 to make the final table. I am thinking of just putting 5 bucks down here. I know 55-1 would be a horrible bet to win it all, but does just making the final table make this a decent bet?

I follow poker somewhat and know all these people, but I don't know everything to a great extent. My friend who goes to vegas and commerce says Williams is the hot thing and he is making a killing right now in the "scene." Is he legit?

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know 55-1 would be a horrible bet to win it all, but does just making the final table make this a decent bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

This is a slight bit hand-wavy in parts, but think of it this way: Say there are 7200 entrants. Then if everyone is of equal skill, the chance of any specific person making it to the final nine is 1 in 800.

So 799-1 would be a fair line if everyone were of the same skill. If one player were "twice as good" as the others, 400-1 would be reasonable. If one player were "five times as good" as the others, 160-1 would be reasonable. 55-1 means Williams would have to be about "fifteen times as good" as the average player. No one is that good or even close to it.

It is very unlikely you will find a good WSOP bet on any specific player. Last year there was a great Field bet though.

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

But it isn't for him to win it, its for him to make the final table.

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
But it isn't for him to win it, its for him to make the final table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understood that. Reread my post.

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

Re-read MCS' post.

"Just" making the final table is, on average, a 1 in 700-800 shot (depending on final number of entrants). 55-1 odds sucks donkey balls.

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

I get ya guys. Thanks. I really think Williams can do strong, but I know the WSOP is a crapshoot for the most part. Especially with no names who always make a name for themselves.

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

The sites know most bettors don't think about how to figure odds on something like this, and even if they did, they might not understand a good player's tourney EV isn't so huge versus an average one's.

I think Williams is a good player too, and more likely than most to make the final table, but it's kinda like having three lottery tickets instead of one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]

It is very unlikely you will find a good WSOP bet on any specific player. Last year there was a great Field bet though.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is a "field bet"? I googled and only came up with craps bets.

eastbay

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

Field bet simply means you are betting on the rest of the entire player field, so you get anyone who is not specifically listed already in the wagering lines.

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

tradesports .com has a contract up on the wsop main event. they list 100 of the top name players. and the bet is on which player will finish highest in the tournament. it's not terribly interesting now because the odds are all 50:1 to 200:1, but after a few days of the main event when the field thins it will be a lot of fun to bet on who will survive. no sklansky listed though, unfortunately. negreanu and hellmuth are getting the most volume so far and are trading at 2.5x par or 40:1. paul phillips and barry greenstein seem to be good frontrunners so would look to buy them if they do well day 1. raymer trading at par.

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

is tradesports.com legit?

Re: Should I take this bet?
 

i think tradesports is legit. i have been trading w/o any problems since 2003. you can easily get $ in/out with neteller. best values out there for futures bets. especially for us politics. in some spots you may not get orders filled if you are a really big bettor though.