The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

I'm just posting this because I believe a lot of people on this forum would feel this is an automatic fold in TEPop's spot (NickB from 2+2), whereas it's actually a very good call in this situation..


***** Hand History for Game -2131683186 *****
200/400 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 12855742) - MON JUN 06 03:21:14 EDT 2005
Table Table 11087 (Real Money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: swiftdeal (1095)
Seat 2: luna00 (1140)
Seat 3: yozzy (1045)
Seat 4: The_Robot (1030)
Seat 5: dandydan144 (1290)
Seat 8: curtainz (1005)
Seat 9: phukyoo (1970)
Seat 10: TEPop84 (1425)
phukyoo posts small blind (100)
TEPop84 posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to curtainz [ Js, Ts ]
swiftdeal folds.
luna00 folds.
yozzy folds.
The_Robot folds.
dandydan144 folds.
curtainz raises (1005) to 1005
curtainz is all-In.
phukyoo folds.
TEPop84 calls (805)
Creating Main Pot with $2110 with curtainz
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2d, 9h, Qd ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 6c ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2110 |
Board: [ 2d 9h Qd 4h 6c ]
swiftdeal balance 1095, didn't bet (folded)
luna00 balance 1140, didn't bet (folded)
yozzy balance 1045, didn't bet (folded)
The_Robot balance 1030, didn't bet (folded)
dandydan144 balance 1290, didn't bet (folded)
curtainz balance 0, lost 1005 [ Js Ts ] [ high card queen -- Qd,Js,Ts,9h,6c ]
phukyoo balance 1870, lost 100 (folded)
TEPop84 balance 2530, bet 1005, collected 2110, net +1105 [ Ac 2h ] [ a pair of twos -- Ac,Qd,9h,2h,2d ]

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

good post? i'd like it better if you posted say, some of the icm numbers that make this call good [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

plugging in any reasonably wide range of hands for this noob curtainz shows this to be a very significantly +EV call. it should be noted that if curtainz was a stupidly tight player, this call would of course be horrible. (if he's playing 77+, A9+, this would be a -2.7 call, which is wow bad.) something tells me this curtainz guy probably isn't stupidly tight though.

also should be included that there is bonus EV for spite call busting a fellow 2+2er.

other interesting things: say your range is as wide as 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2+, J9+, calling with things like K6o is +EV too. so well, maybe that explains why those fish that call with Kxo for 80% of their stacks are doing it, they know it's +EV.

citanul

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Yea I just think it's interesting to highlight the difference between the $55s+ the $215s. I highly doubt anyone would recommend calling there against a typical opponent in a $55.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]


Yea I just think it's interesting to highlight the difference between the $55s+ the $215s. I highly doubt anyone would recommend calling there against a typical opponent in a $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the part I'm not understanding though. How do we know that it is recommended to do this in the 215s against a typical opponent? I'm not saying that it ISN'T, I'm just saying that as I read this and try to educate myself, I don't see anything here that tells me that something is correct at the 215s that isn't correct at the 55s. I could post lots of hands where I pushed a hand in the 55s and someone made a call and beat me, but that wouldn't really mean anything.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]


Yea I just think it's interesting to highlight the difference between the $55s+ the $215s. I highly doubt anyone would recommend calling there against a typical opponent in a $55.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just about to ask the rationale behind the call when I saw this quote. This explains a little more why I (playing the $55s) shouldn't make this call against random donk-head. Of course if I ever make it to the $215s, my edge over others is much less, or none at all, and the opponents more agressive, where I'd be making this call routinely. Does that sound right?

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Depends on situation. In this situation it was definitely a call. I'm sure there are players where it's a fold or at least much closer. However it's more common to make such tough calls in the $215s, especially calls that will leave you desperate with very little folding equity if you lose, yet you are reasonably comfortable in chips when you make the call.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Because he knows you will be stealing with a very wide range of hands here...

Out of interest, what range of hands should he be calling with??

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Three more things about this call, one why it's good and two
why it can be very ugly:

1)If you win, you eliminate a very good player to your right (plus the image play);
2)If you are even slightly off on your read, this play sucks;
3)If he knows you are good, there's a very good chance you *are* off on your read and his range is tighter.

So basically, I'd fold and feel pretty decent doing it, but I'd still spite call if my kicker was, like, a 5.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Level of thinking:

Nick knows curtains will be stealing with a huge range here. So he should call.

Curtains knows that nick knows he will be stealing with a huge range here, so he tightens up his pushing standards.

In turn, nick knows this and recongizes he needs a much higher calling requirement.

Curtains knows this and goes back to loose pushing standards.

It could go on forever....

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Almost no one can call loose enough here to make pushing a very wide range incorrect. I mean he has to start calling with hands like K6o-Q9o before I stop pushing with +EV, and that's really tough to do.

Also let's talk about how unbelievably unlucky I was to not win this hand. It's completely ridiculous losing JTs to A2o.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

I would have made the title "The sort of pushes you have to make at the $215s"

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Ah ignore my post,I thought he called with 22.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also let's talk about how unbelievably unlucky I was to not win this hand. It's completely ridiculous losing JTs to A2o.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this is really a bad beat post?

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would have made the title "The sort of pushes you have to make at the $215s"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very standard push at levels other than the $215s...

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also let's talk about how unbelievably unlucky I was to not win this hand. It's completely ridiculous losing JTs to A2o.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this is really a bad beat post?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a bad beat that curtains' plan to sit to Nick's right ended up backfiring on him.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

I think what makes this situation the perfect time for the call is that there are a lot of people left at this level (which happens very often in the 215s.) This makes gambling much more necessary. I often find that this is the hardest point of these tournaments for me to play. I find that I make pushes, and get called by hands like A2, or K9, where I expect these types of hands to fold. Though, this could just be the mini bad run speaking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I do like the call, and I've played several tournies with TEPop, he is one I try to avoid if possible. I never knew it was NickB though...good to know [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

I agree but not everyone realises this.
Also I misread the post and thought the caller had 22.

If this had been the case I disagreed with the title of the post.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

lol I honestly don't pay much attention to seat selection. Someone like him I'd prefer just to sit like 5 seats away so we don't have to go to war all the time...it's kind of bothersome dealing with such things when playing 8 games. But okay, most of the time I just sit down where it makes sense for my monitor....like 4 games on one side of table and 4 on the other. It's deep strategy

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree but not everyone realises this.
Also I misread the post and thought the caller had 22.

If this had been the case I disagreed with the title of the post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been under the assumption that the majority of posters on this board are pushing with a lot worse than JTs in this position.

I'm pretty sure it's a call with 22, in fact, I assume it's a more sure call with 22 rather A2, so I'm not sure where you're going here.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

I actually do the same thing. All 4 corners so that my players are in the middle of my screen. I agree that being as far away from a solid player who knows that you're also solid is the best strategy, but against people who don't know who you are, I like to sit to their right.

Interesting story (actually, not that interesting.) I sat down in one of my usual corners and noticed a 2+2er was directly to my right. I left the table and came back sitting directly to HIS right. He types in "Why'd you do that outdrawed? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]" So I was busted.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

I'm at work, so I don't have access to all my tools.

Curtains, my first thought is that this call isn't as wise on level 4, but since the blinds are so large now on level 5, that's really the kind of "kicker" that makes calling here correct with A2.

Also, the following is in response to another poster about the difference between calling with A2 vs 22. My hunch was that A2 is slightly ahead of 22 against this range. The results below.

Hand 1: 52.1956 % [ 00.48 00.05 ] { AA-55, 33-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o }
Hand 2: 47.8044 % [ 00.43 00.05 ] { A2s, A2o }

Hand 1: 52.6932 % [ 00.52 00.01 ] { AA-55, 33-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o }
Hand 2: 47.3068 % [ 00.47 00.01 ] { 22 }

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Yeah but you cheated and included A2s with A2o

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Why did you bizarrely exclude 44 from curtainz' pushing range? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

4's are unlucky to me, I never play them, I thought everyone knew that? I wonder what that would do to my ROI if I decided to fold pocket fours everytime no matter what.....how many ROI points would I lose?

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
4's are unlucky to me, I never play them, I thought everyone knew that? I wonder what that would do to my ROI if I decided to fold pocket fours everytime no matter what.....how many ROI points would I lose?

[/ QUOTE ]
haha


I think that people are overlooking how +EV this push is. I mean, if Nick was going to fold A2 here that lets curtains push any two. Even with him calling with hands wider than A2 it seems like curtains can be pushing much worse than 10Js. At a $50 against a typical opponent i'm usually pushing any two here.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

When I opened this up, I thought this was going to be a flame post. I haven't been playing that well, so I was doubting my decisions. I was close to a fold, but the fact that I would still have 400 left if I lost and it was a good player pushing on the button moved it to a call.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

he turned into a actionmonkey type, I def. dont like sitting on actionmonkeys right...

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

i dont like this call, even if i think yer pushing 70% of hands there. holla

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

He is getting 1505:805, or nearly 2:1. Against this range, he is only a 5% dog. Clear call.

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.5513 % [ 00.42 00.04 ] { A2o }
Hand 2: 53.4487 % [ 00.49 00.04 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K5s, QJs-Q7s, JTs-J8s, T9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K5o, QJo-Q7o, JTo-J8o, T9o }

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

sigh. when will people learn, that its not always about how +cev it is to make the call. holla

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

The calls seems much easier if BB has enough chips to maintain at least some FE if he loses, with 1425 i'm letting this go.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

Does this make you feel better?

According to ICM, by folding NickB has 12.35% price equity.
If he calls and loses, it is 4.61%.
If he calls and wins, it is 22.82%.

So, he only needs to win in more than 42.5% of all cases to make a call profitable. Wow, 42.5% is not very much (= less than I expected) => clear call

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
sigh. when will people learn, that its not always about how +cev it is to make the call. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

My feeling is that your skill edge does not make up enough of an advantage in a Party SnG to be able to fold +EV posts like this. And this spot is marginal bordering on clear call, not marginal bordering on could be a fold.

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance. Plus if you win your opponents know you are willing to call with A2o and thus will raise you less.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling is that your skill edge does not make up enough of an advantage in a Party SnG to be able to fold +EV posts like this. And this spot is marginal bordering on clear call, not marginal bordering on could be a fold.

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance. Plus if you win your opponents know you are willing to call with A2o and thus will raise you less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, if I do bust Curtains, that is 1 less person raising my blinds everytime, which will be good for me.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does this make you feel better?

According to ICM, by folding NickB has 12.35% price equity.
If he calls and loses, it is 4.61%.
If he calls and wins, it is 22.82%.

So, he only needs to win in more than 42.5% of all cases to make a call profitable. Wow, 42.5% is not very much (= less than I expected) => clear call

[/ QUOTE ]

My mind is too 8-tabled out to do math, but ICM does not take into account the "meta-factor" of preserving fold equity the times you fold. So...you're probably going to have to win more than 42.5% of the time for it to be correct.

At first I thought it was 200/400 blinds and thought it was an insta call, but 100/200 that's pushing it. All depends on your read of UTG and his pushing habits/his awareness of & how he values preserving his own fold equity (which is in jeopardy, maybe he's willing to open up his pushing range on this hand, maybe not....). If you fold and pay your SB, on average you'll have a few +EV chip pushing opportunities come your way (+EV due to the combination of your fold equity + your chance of winning when called) that you lose by calling and losing.

But over top 70% of hands seems a little high of a calling threshold...I wouldn't fold if I knew I was 50% (A2o vs. roughly top 1/2 of hands), or better yet a favorite here with that better than 3:2 overlay and 1.5 BB left if you call and lose (after paying the SB) with a chance to regain fold equity again by winning one showdown.

How much less than 50% to win, not sure.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think what makes this situation the perfect time for the call is that there are a lot of people left at this level (which happens very often in the 215s.) This makes gambling much more necessary.

[/ QUOTE ]

With his stack and the number of players left (if he wins), I very much like his chances here. Heading towards level 6 and it is 7-handed the big stack is pretty useful.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

You calculated pot odds and CEV. I think raptor's point was that calculating the pot equity doesn't always make sense in a tournament, he wants to know the $EV. (You already know this, but again: Many times in the bubble a call would be +CEV, but -$EV.) To calculate the $EV you have to analyze the possible outcomes.

If one should call depends on the pushing range of the button, independant of the buy-in.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]
You calculated pot odds and CEV. I think raptor's point was that calculating the pot equity doesn't always make sense in a tournament, he wants to know the $EV. (You already know this, but again: Many times in the bubble a call would be +CEV, but -$EV.) To calculate the $EV you have to analyze the possible outcomes.

If one should call depends on the pushing range of the button, independant of the buy-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

6 handed against skilled opponents with large blinds I think it's more important than we would like to discount. Against skilled opponents passing up +EV, high variance spots is a big mistake.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

[ QUOTE ]

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect raptor's point is that CEV isn't what you should be concerned about, but $ EV.

EDIT: Yikes; bubble time made me lose track of how long it had been since this was updated. I see my post is far from relevant at the moment.

Re: The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....
 

1505:805 isn't the pot odds. The push was 1005 with 100 and 200 blinds and no1 else in the pot. He's only getting 1305:805 on the call.

FWIW, I don't really like the call, maybe I'm just tighter than most (and I prob am), but in this situation with the blinds fairly minimal I don't think I would ever make a call with a hand like 22, 33, or A2. You are either a 60% favorite at most if you're right, or you're dominated. With this many people left and the blinds still only 100/200 you have time to build a stack, no need to panic already.