Tournament Tactics Question
 

10K Buy In WPT Mirage Tourney. 320 Players. 3rd Table (27th) pays 18K to everybody. First prize one Mil. Everyone starts off with 20K in chips. 31 players left. You doubled someone up a few hands earlier leaving you with only 20K tournament chips. Everyone else in the tournament has at least 50K. Average stack is 200K.

Blinds are 2000-4000. Ante 500. Eight players. All fold to you on the button. Two typical players in the blinds both have about 150K. You pick up 86suited. What's your play?

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Fold. Try to find a better hand this rotation to atttempt to double up with.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

push.

this is a no brainer. easiest push ever.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

With the pot at 11,000 already this looks like a great spot to gamble, especially if the players in the blinds will fold even half of their hands it becomes a pretty clear push.

Saying that the players are 'typical' makes it difficult to put them on a calling range, they wouldnt have to fold many hands to make this a push though.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Move all in. If both blinds are typical players they will tighten up waiting for the money and if you are called your hand isn't not that big of a dog against there holdings.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Move all in. If both blinds are typical players they will tighten up waiting for the money and if you are called your hand isn't not that big of a dog against there holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would they tighten up? If the SB folds, the BB is paying 16k to gamble for our 20K stack and the 11K in blinds, seems like an easy call with any 2 cards for him.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why would they tighten up? If the SB folds, the BB is paying 16k to gamble for our 20K stack and the 11K in blinds, seems like an easy call with any 2 cards for him.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't consider less than 2 to 1 an "any two" call.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Interesting situation, opportunity for two stacks with ample $$$$$ to call ur all in, and knowing u are pushing likely with any two, i am willing to bet u get called ALOT but it's likely
an ICM test for some math whiz's especially if they are even the least bit loose because any high cards u're getting called. I know I am thinking along the right lines but again are they maniacs or just guys who built their stacks by nut peddlin????????? Guess I don't understand typical players as described, cuz I'd likely call as a blind with a large range here, not getting overly hurt by losing and gaining a few rounds of blinds by winning, plus expecting a lesser than average hand by the short stack.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]

I don't consider less than 2 to 1 an "any two" call.



[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, well, if we flipped up AsKd, he'd be +EV of 262 chips to call with 2c3h so whatever calculations tournament players use to balance out the time the button has a pair I don't know, the point was to say I'd think he'd call with most of his holdings..
I could easily be wrong on this though
Zaxen

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Move in automatically. Yes, the BB is getting 2 to 1 but they are looking at a very big jump up from 0 to $18K if they just fold and try to survive.

This could easily be our last chance to open-raise with more than 3x the BB. It's not a great spot, but it's better than the other spots we are likely to find in this tournament.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

push

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, the BB is getting 2 to 1 but they are looking at a very big jump up from 0 to $18K if they just fold and try to survive.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 150K, they're not worried about 'trying to survive.' They have plenty of room to make a marginal call and still rebound without really jeopardizing their ability to get into the money.

Sklansky said they were 'typical players' not 'players who play too tight on the bubble.' Typical players are willing to look up the allin move with a rather large range: Any pair, any ace, suited kings and QJs, etc. On a live-cards/gambling basis, a push seems okay, but I might hold out for a more appealing situation with a suited 1-gapper.

Without more information, this seems like a fold to me.

Shane

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

The most important part of Sklansky's post is the fact that 27th pays the same as 19th.

Since 31 players remain and the main 2 payout jumps are from 28th to 27th and 19th to 18th, you probably want to stretch out as much as you can and just survive.

That said, you are giving BB and SB more than 2:1 to call, and them being typical players late in a 10k tourney will put you on a wider range of hands than normal.

The question then becomes, if not then, when should we push?

In my opinion, hero needs to wait as long as possible, so long as the hand he is committing all his stack to is a favorite when the chips are in. Even if that means calling the BB all-in. Whatever it takes to scrape to the next payout level and then gamble to get back into contention.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

4 people need to bust out before us and nobody else is even shortstacked. There's no point in waiting around. Plenty of chips in the pot, lets go.

Push.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Push..easy push. I think when Sklansky said that these were typical players, it meant that they are keeping track of stacks and know you are about to go out. Therefore, hardly any of the players with more than 50k will make any kind of play to risk it all and get busted before you do.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is discussed in TPFAP where Sklansky says its unwise to risk your stack on the bubble when one or more players are about to be antied out, but when you're the short stack, you should be aware that other players are waiting for you to bust out and you won't outlast anyone by folding great opportunities like this to open push, maybe steal the blinds and probably be no more than a 60-40 dog if called. In short, you have to gamble when you are short and everyone else has more than twice as much as you and you won't find many better opportunities than this in my opinion, especially if the money is still 4 spots away...no way 4 people are going out before you before you double up.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

fold, your objective is to double up, not add insignificant chips to your stack. with 5 more hands to go before big blind, you're bound to pick up a better hand than 8 high.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

easy fold

M

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold, your objective is to double up, not add insignificant chips to your stack. with 5 more hands to go before big blind, you're bound to pick up a better hand than 8 high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold, your objective is to double up, not add insignificant chips to your stack. with 5 more hands to go before big blind, you're bound to pick up a better hand than 8 high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

With two 150k stacks in the blinds that only have to call off about 10% of their chips to look you up.....fold and hope for a better hand.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

To actually answer this question we have to think about it from the perspective of the big blind.

What range of hands will the big blind put you on if you shove? We are given that he is a typical WPT player, which makes me think that he has a pretty decent understanding of the game.

Now, when you raise with 5 big blinds on the button, AFTER losing a big hand, with such an obvious steal situation, he will probably put you on...any two cards.

So he thinks you have any two cards. Then he will look at the pot odds...he's getting about 1.9:1. Then he'll realize that the 16K it will take to call is inconsequential to his stack. Or he'll just want to bust you to get into the money.

So what will he call your all-in with? Probably 85-90% of his hands. Maybe more.

And that's just the big blind. With the small blind in as well...you are probably getting called over 90% of the time.

Fold.

Will

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

The problem with this is that you still have to wait for 3 players to bust to win anything, and everyone else has at least 2.5x your stack. I don't think you can wait around that long.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Close fold.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with this is that you still have to wait for 3 players to bust to win anything, and everyone else has at least 2.5x your stack. I don't think you can wait around that long.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can sure as hell wait for a better hand than 8 high

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

I think this is a clear-cut push. You only have 5x the BB. Every single hand you're losing 500 of your 20K to antes. The next smallest stack has 12.5 BB's, and you're still 4 from the money. You're probably getting called unless BB has total trash, but due to the circumstances you're in you're forced to gamble. 86s is only a 3-2 dog against AKo, and you're on the button. You're not going to get much better situations to increase your stack by 50%. What are you going to wait around for, AK or a big pocket pair? Are you hoping to push next hand with a hand like A6s, and get called by A9 where you're a 2-1 dog? Of course 8 high isn't going to be ahead if you're called, but you can't wait around to accumulate chips when every hand you're losing 500 chips and the BB is 20% of your stack.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

But then you will be in a much worse position than the button, with way more than 2 people to act behind you. 86s is only a 3-2 dog against AKo, and every single hand you're losing 500 chips. If you have to wait around for the big blind for a decent hand, you've all of a sudden lost another 3K in chips to antes, with 6K in blinds coming in the next 2 hands.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Muck. Not even close.

Vince

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Easy fold. I'd be almost sure that one of the blinds would call and 86s, while great mulitway or against Aces is a disaster heads up. Wait untill K-high or better then shove would be my plan.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Push, because you could really use the blinds and even though 8-6 suited is NOT a great all-in hand it shouldn't be a huge underdog unless it's up against an overpair. The typical players with 150K will usually fold because they don't want to risk 20K when the average stack is 200K. Also there's no need to try and "sneek in the money" as most people will be trying to do because the last couple spots don't pay all that well, therefore, your goal is to try and accumulate some chips because you're trying to get to where the real money is, which should be somewhere around the final table (give or take a few players).

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
fold, your objective is to double up, not add insignificant chips to your stack. with 5 more hands to go before big blind, you're bound to pick up a better hand than 8 high.

[/ QUOTE ]
For the sake of argument, let's say I'm appropriately-bankrolled for $10K tournaments and bought in directly, and not someone who won a $300 satellite and for whom 27th is double my current bankroll.

There's 10K in the pot between the blinds and antes and we have 20K to start the hand. If the blinds fold, those aren't "insignificant chips". The folding equity of a 20K stack sucks, and 30K does a lot better.

And while we're likely to get a better hand than 86s before the blinds hit us, there are downsides to waiting too. When that better hand comes, someone else may have already opened the pot. I doubt calling a raise with Q2o in MP is going to turn out better than pushing 86s here. If we do get to open we'll be pushing into more players. Here we're only hoping to get 2 people to fold. In short, waiting for a better hand may not have a better EV. We can't just assume it does.

Getting called here isn't going to be a fun situation, but nothing we do has a particularly good $EV right now. 20K chips is enough to last 2 rounds - 16 hands, but realistically 13-14 since we're not going to fold in the BB after putting in 60% of our stack to get 2 more hands. I don't think that'll get us into the money.

I have suited live connected cards, some tiny possibility of folding equity, and if I win I'll have somewhere between 30K-65K chips. I think I push here, especially if the table's been tight enough that I think I'll able to steal again before the blinds hit me.

-----------------------------------------------
I spent awhile looking at our chipEV for various calling ranges. If SB and BB both call every time we're +400 chips. If they both call with every hand that's not dominated by 86s, we're called by both 81% of the time, neither 1% of the time, and one the remaining 18%. That's +600 chips. The more hands they fold, the more chipEV we have. If they're playing too tight (SB playing top 15%, BB top 35%) we end up closer to +5500.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Although it's a close decision, I don't think I can fold here. Will I pick up a hand better than 8 high if I wait? Probably. The fact that it's suited + a 1 gapper is almost irrelevant, since that will only increase your chances of winning by a few % in an all-in heads up showdown. So I'll almost certainly see a hand in the next few deals that I'd rather bring to a showdown against a random opponent. But I'm not looking to bring this hand to a showdown, I want to steal the blinds and antes. That will increase my chip stack by 50% and get me out of desperation mode. And although I could wait for a while for a better showdown hand, I think the hand is irrelevant here. You're on the button and everyone's folded to you, which gives you the best opportunity to steal a pot, and that is a position that you certainly won't be in again if you fold here. So at this point I could have 23o and I don't think I'm folding here.

The problem of course is that pushing all-in means you're very likely to be called by a huge range of hands, and just about all of them will be a favorite against you. I think what I would do is raise to 15k here. This puts the small blind in a tricky spot. If anyone's going to call you, they're going to want to push you all-in, but with the big blind still to act, the small blind is effectively sandwiched. He can't push you all in without reraising to 26k, and that's risking too many of his chips when the big blind has a hand. He could just call, hope the BB folds despite the now huge pot and good odds that he's getting, and push any flop, but (1) he doesn't have the odds to do that without a hand, (2) he runs the risk of the big blind coming in with any 2, making the pot multiway with another big stack, which means pushing on the flop is no longer an option and (3) that raise represents a stronger hand than an all-in push. If I'm the small blind, I'm folding anything but legitimate hands here. So now you only have to worry about the big blind. When it gets to him, he'll realize that you're pot committed, so although you only pushed in 15k he should see it as a 20k bet, in terms of the odds he's getting. So he's in the same situation as he would be in if you had pushed all-in and the small blind folds. Only by doing it this way you increase the chances that the small blind will fold, plus a 15k bet represents a stronger hand than an all-in push, so you probably increase the chances that the big blind will fold as well.

If I had more chips or less chips I would be more inclined to push all-in, but with 20k you have just enough leverage to make this play worth the risk. Also if I was in a different position or if the players in the blinds weren't typical (and by typical I assume that means typical players who make the top 31 in a 10k buy in event, meaning they think a little bit) my answer would be different. So it's close and I can't believe my chances of finishing in the money are good no matter what I do, but I like this play better than folding or pushing.

Go ahead and flame away.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

I really like your idea of raising to 15K. It makes SB much more apprehensive to call, since he doesn't know what BB will do. If his hand is mediocre, he doesn't want to raise to put you all-in because he's afraid of BB waking up with a big hand. If he just calls, showing weakness, he's inviting BB to come over the top with any two to drive him out of the pot to sweeten BB's pot equity. If SB calls with only a decent hand, the best he can hope for is that BB cooperates and either folds or calls and checks it down.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that it's suited + a 1 gapper is almost irrelevant, since that will only increase your chances of winning by a few % in an all-in heads up showdown.
.
.
.
So at this point I could have 23o and I don't think I'm folding here.


[/ QUOTE ]
random vs Q2o : 52.7/47.3
random vs 86s : 53.8/46.2
random vs T2o : 58.3/41.7
random vs 82o : 63.2/36.8
random vs 32o : 67.7/32.3

I'd say the difference matters. Assuming a 50,000 chip pot, 86s expects to do about 7000 chips better than 32o.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

At $10,000 a round you are 16 hands away from being blinded off and must acquire more chips. I am not playing for 27th here.

If you go all in and get called you will have nearly 40% equity against most calling hands. The $10,000 dead money gets you to 45%+. With your stack, you are happy to take a 45% situation.

The folding equity against two typical players makes it better than 50:50 for you. Therefore it is a significant mistake not to go all in.

Matt

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

i'm constantly amazed at how many people get split down the middle while saying, "it's not even close", when sklansky puts these questions up.

that said, i'm folding here...but i wouldn't come close to suggesting it's clearly the best play.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

I wouldn't call a 50% increase in the stack (if he's not called) insignificant, especially when he can pick up a doubling opportunity later in the orbit.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Not thinking about the antes, I was thinking I fold, though with a little bit better hand, say, T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I push. That was my initial instinct without thinking about the problem more carefully.

But because of the antes, theres is 10,000 (blinds plus 4,000 in antes) to be won when no one calls, and even though I am going to get called a lot and not win a good % of the time when I am called, 10,000 is so big relative to my stack that I think it's still worth it.

These estimates could be wrong, but if I estimate that I will be called 65% of the time by someone, and if I estimate that I win 33% of time I am called, then I think my chip EV is roughly:

(.35 x 10,000) + (.65 x .33 x 27,000) - (.65 x .66 x 20000) = 3500 + 5791.5 - 8580 = +711.5

Given the antes chewing me up, my rapidly diminishing fold equity, the fact that 4 players have to go out for me to get to the money combined with me being by far the lowest stack (if I survive until 3 others go out, players will be wary of going out before me as long as I am still so short stacked), I definitely have to risk going out here for any + chip EV...and maybe some - chip EV.

(revised estimate of being called to 65% from 60%..becomes almost dead even at 70% call/33% win)

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

I don't think the SB is really inviting the BB to come over the top with "any two" because that would be so advantageous to the short stack, with only 4 players left to the money. And the BB is not wielding a huge stack (if he was he might not be concerned about knocking players out to make the money). Although I might be concerned if I was the SB if the BB was an aggressive pro to whom making the money meant little.

To me, the biggest problem with just raising to 15k is I think you risk significantly increasing the chances of two callers.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

We're in a situation where if we push, the BB will call with a very wide range of hands but not total crap. We can take advantage of that by waiting for something like A3 or K9 that should be a favourite against the big blind's range of calling hands.

If we push now, there's a fairly good chance that both blinds will call and then check it down. The idea of tripling through is attractive, but when they do both call I figure our 86s has only about 29% pot equity.

I'd push here with J9o, but the 86s is a fold.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

You're right, "any two" is a stretch. What I meant was that he could easily do it with any hand he would have called the button with anyway. If he knows SB will fold, he COULD actually almost make this move with any two, because it would increase his pot odds to such an extent, and he knows the button probably won't have him dominated. The advantage it gives to the short stack is almost irrelevant to BB unless he's worried about busting out before the money (I guess this would depend on the stack sizes of those on the lower end of chips).