Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

What I have of villain is mainly from data mining.
He is PF 60/22, AFs are 1/1/5. He went 37% to SD.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

CO ($133.25)
Button ($76)
SB ($298.38)
BB ($98)
Hero ($130.1)
MP ($206.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
Hero calls $1, MP calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $1, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $3</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, MP folds, Button folds, SB calls $6.

Turn: ($23) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, SB calls $12.
<font color="green"> How was the turn bet? </font>

River: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB calls $276.38 (All-In), Hero [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

I call putting him on flush. guy that has 22% pfr won't limp with AA/KK. I check through the turn as I don't want to be checkraised a big amount and the check through somewhat disguises my hand should I fill up and might induce an A to blocking bet the river should it blank. I fully expect to call up to 2/3 pot on the river on a nonheart.

if he has 77, oh well.

actually I didn't think about K7, A7, 72. hmm, makes this tougher. I think A7 is the hand you are most worried about.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

Unless you've seen him make "the move of honor" before, more often than could possibly be accounted for by him holding the nuts, then lay it down. You've put $22 in so far, so you have $108 left to risk. I think he will show you the stone cold nuts here more often than a missed draw or some other crapola. It is a little suspicious that he didn't check-raise on the turn, with any hand (even A7) that beats you, but I certainly have seen the mysterious call, then bet, with a big hand.

Very possibly he flopped a set with his big pair and decided to slowplay it. On the turn, he got afraid of the flush, then was afraid no longer on the river. I guess he could even have A7 and feared the flush on the turn. Since you have the absolutely tiniest full house possible on the board, there are too many hands that beat you. Fold it. It hurts, and you might be wrong, but fold it.

Your turn bet was fine. Bigger would have been fine, too -- yours was the lower limit of acceptible. Any lower, and you are just setting yourself up for a check-raise from a bigger set, without actually earning much at all from a draw.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

The problem is that he is in the SB, so A7 is certainly possible. You can probably rule KK/AA out considering his PF.

The problem is that given his PF numbers, he might also just be a donk with the nut flush who thinks he is good.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

Turn bet sucks.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

Yikes. That, unfortunately, is the most useful thing I have to say about this hand. I actually don't use those stats you listed, so I don't know what they mean. They could easily change what I would do on the river here I think. That being said, I think I would grit my teeth and call here. My GUESS is that he has the heart flush (there's no way he could read you definitively for a FH). The only other possibility I see is that he has A7. Do those stats indicate at all that he would overbet the river so much with 7's full? I also would bet a little more on the turn here (more like $15) with bottom set, but that's getting nit-picky. It's SUPER close, but I think I'd call.

Addition -- I don't feel like re-writing the above, so I just wanted to add that A7 makes as much sense to me as a heart flush after thinking about it a bit more. The huge overbet makes me more inclined to call with my fullhouse though because I wouldn't expect a $200 overbet with such a strong hand. On the other hand... he's tripled his buy-in and this type of move might be a good way to do it by making others think you're bluffing on the river. Do you have the results? I'm really curious because I find myself in similar situations sometimes.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

It makes perfect sense that he could be holding A7!
1. It was an unraised PF.
2. He was SB
3. He called on turn after third heart fell, which could have made a flush that topped his 2P.
4. He fills on the end with 7 and pushes.

The key, IMHO, to letting go of this hand earlier or at least backing off a bit earlier is that the pot was unraised b4 the flop. You really can't say he wouldn't hold A7 or even K7 or 72 for that matter given that he only had to put in half a bet to see the firts three cards. After that, many of these hole card combos make sense of his betting.
chrs

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

the problem is that your half pot turn bet makes it seem like you have the flush and want to get value out of it.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

perhaps had you made a better turn bet your river decision would be easier?

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

I'd call. You can rule out AA and KK cause of no preflop raise from a 60/22 player. More likely he has a flush or trips than a bigger boat. I wouldn't be too surprised if he turns over A7 here but I think you should call. I'd put him on Axs for the flush.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

if he had A7 and called the flop raise, then he's a donk...but a donk that gets my stack.

this is the best possible flop for 22 in an unraised pot (barring quads).

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

after further analysis. I think its an easy fold as the A and K are hearts on the flop therefore he would have to have a QXh to have the flush.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put him on Axs for the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you normally play with decks that have multiple A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s?

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

[ QUOTE ]
after further analysis. I think its an easy fold as the A and K are hearts on the flop therefore he would have to have a QXh to have the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

he's a 60VPIPer...the flushes he chases are unlikely to be the nuts.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

still, would he smoothcall the turn 1/2 pot?

I mean he can't expect hero to call a push with 2 pair on the river can he? his river push gets no value.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

Amoeba nailed this one.

The turn bet looks like you hit the flush and are betting that. I think a very high percentage of the time he has the higher boat (A7 or K7 most likely) and figures you to not fold your hopefully nut flush.

The only other logical thought which I think is unlikely is that he has some A 10 type of hand and is trying to push you off of the flush when the 'scare' card for the flush hits on the river. He is not going to have this often enough to call given the pot odds.

I fold this without a good read on the player. I have learned the hard way that massive overbets like this are the nuts and read the threads about the logic of these massive river bets. They only have to be called every now and then to show a much superior profit to the usual "value-bet".

jb

Final thought: If you have a good note and read that he is a complete donk, I have seen this type of massive overbet when he has the nut flush and is now scared that it is not good. (strong=weak, weak=strong).

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

in this case, I think your turn bet actually worked out for you.

I would be much more inclined to call the river push had I checked through the turn.

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

Thinking more about this, I'm still inclined to call. You are getting 4:3 odds here, which means you need to be good about 40% of the time to break even. He has a flush here occasionaly, and he could very easily have an A and assume he is splitting. Keep in mind your play looks a lot like a strong A, because you raised the flop then made a scared bet when the flush hit. Considering that any A2-AQ (except A7) are all tied as of the river, he could very easily be pushing here with any A and hoping to push you off of a strong one to avoid splitting the pot, and figuring he is going to split if you call anyway.

RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
in this case, I think your turn bet actually worked out for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could have been this way, if I wouldn't suck at poker.

I called and his A7 was good.

Two major leaks of my game are represented in this hand.

I have difficulties to ...

1. ... put my opponents on hands, I would never ever play similar, e.g. calling this flop raise with TPNK OOP.

2. ... fold good hands to massive river bets.

Thanks for all the input. Amazing how many people had the read of A7. Someday I'll find this fold button...

Re: RESULTS
 

its cool dude. I went back and forth on this one and I'm sure many of the other posters did too. In the heat of the moment I think I would have pulled the "this guy is a donk, I'm not folding a fullhouse" call as well.

I think we all benefit alot from thinking through the situation on each street. Just wish the timer online was longer.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just wish the timer online was longer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: RESULTS
 

If you never folded here, it wouldn't be much of a leak. I just don't think it's something to worry about.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you never folded here, it wouldn't be much of a leak. I just don't think it's something to worry about.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. I would say that if you always folded here, it wouldn't be much of a leak.

Would you fold nut flush on this board and action? Consider that your hand is only nut flush plus one.

I love amoeba's reverse read, that opponent puts you on nut flush and is no longer afraid of it. Since everything that beats nut flush also beats you, lay it down.

Re: RESULTS
 

Ok, but playing against you I push any A on this river 100% of the time. So how is that not a leak to fold here?

Re: Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max
 

It's a call. If he had a hand that beats yours, why wouldn't he check/raise? What could you possibly call this push with? If you have a flush, you will call a check/raise or at least will value bet it and he will gain more than blowing you off your hand like this. This looks a lot more like desperation than a monster.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, but playing against you I push any A on this river 100% of the time. So how is that not a leak to fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL! Because you are lying. Anyway, as I said above, if you have seen the opponent make the "move of honor" more often than is appropriate, you call. But against a relatively unknown opponent, I stick with always fold as the correct move.

You didn't answer my question. Would you have folded nut flush here?

Re: RESULTS
 

You keep claiming that's the same, but it really isn't. If I had the nut flush, then villain could have 22. If I have 22, then A7 is literally the only reasonable hand that beats me here.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
You keep claiming that's the same, but it really isn't. If I had the nut flush, then villain could have 22. If I have 22, then A7 is literally the only reasonable hand that beats me here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. However, I think AA, KK, and 77 are not out of the question, here, either. Lots of players at these tables want so badly to trap you they could have slowplayed AA/KK from the beginning (then froze up with the flush got there on the turn). Heck, I would have played AA that way about 5% of the time.

Anyway, I stick with my opinion, which, you'll note, I stated in the very first reply to this note, long before results were posted. By an unknown player, the huge overbet usually means a very strong hand -- the nuts on an unpaired board and at least a full house on a paired board.

Re: RESULTS
 

you limp AA multiway from the small blinds?