Small edge w/ AKo?
 

$109 MTT, early, blinds are 15/30. I have 1400.

Folded to CO, 2800, very loose and pretty bad player who mini-raises. I have AKo on the button. Behind me on the SB sits a very aggressive manic player, w/ 730, who will easily raise over the top here with any pair and most aces, and other random stuff too (some Kx for instance). I think that if I raise CO I might lose SB's action. So I flat call the miniraise. SB pushes. Folded to CO who rereraises all-in (2800). Very good chances I'm against a combination of some pair and a weaker ace, although there's a somewhat better chance that SB holds the weak ace and CO the pair (CO obviously doesn't have trash here).

Your thoughts?

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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CO obviously doesn't have trash here

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maybe not total trash, but if he's paying attention then he wants to isolate the maniac. i think the odds are good enough that you're going to get it in against AJ and K8 that you should push. you're also getting some overlay if they both have a pocket pair < KK (AK v 99 v JJ = 36.5%, plus you have pot odds).

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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i think the odds are good enough that you're going to get it in against AJ and K8 that you should push. you're also getting some overlay if they both have a pocket pair

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True, but I think that a significant % the time I'm against weaker ace/king held by SB, and a pair to CO. And I'm actually in a -CEV spot if that's the case (sligtly +CEV on the main pot, but pretty much -EV on the side pot). The chances are slightly against both having A or K I believe, since I have AK. And since I think CO's hand is better than SB, more chances he has a pair than a weak ace.

Also, the initial mini-raise by CO does show he has a hand, I think. AJ is sure an option, but IMO also 99-QQ for instance (and AK-AA-KK a non-significant % of the time).

The more I think about it the closer it looks. Although at the table I pushed.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

i don't think you can just call the first time preflop if you aren't planning on callling in this spot the second time if this eventuality arises.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

If you call and SB folds, you'll be getting just over even money to call. But, if SB is as bad as you say and can call all-in against 2 players for his relatively small stack, he's liable to do it. In that case, you'll be getting close to 2-1 against Ax and the strong hand. Unless CO has AA KK, that's not a bad position to be in.
Of course, are you willing to risk your tourney life at this point? Given the size of your stack, maybe you are.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

I probably let this go.

My decision hinges on what CO would open-miniraise and push with. It's probably pretty easy for everyone at the table to see that SB is the easy money. I think CO is probably trapping SB when he opened, has made hero for a drawing hand or a small pair when he pushed.

Hero is getting 2.3:1 in the center for 1/2 his chips.
The center bet is slightly positive. If one player has a pair then hero is 1:2 in the hand. or ~13% above expected return => ~EV=670 X 13% => ~90.

So if the center pot is worth ~90, in the side pot I am putting up 670 to win 760 (670 + ~EV90), and need to be ~47% in the hand.
Villain must be playing AQo or worse here to make this work.
I think its too close and I let it go.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

Ok, you said that you did not want to lose the SB action and that's why you limped in and you know that he is short stack so there is a big chance that he will push, I don't get it, why would you fold here? was not that your intention? If you did not want for that to happen you should have raised PF, the CO action was expected, he wants to play the SB heads up and you should have known that this would happen.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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i don't think you can just call the first time preflop if you aren't planning on callling in this spot the second time if this eventuality arises.

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Generally I agree with that, but I think it isn't as clear (and I've seen another repeat what you're saying). First, if SB pushes behind and CO folds (which is an option, I don't think CO auto pushes against SB with anything.) I happily call and am an overall favorite. This will happen only a minority of the time, obviously, but IMO, not isolating CO by reraising is still probably better than doing so before SB acts.

Now, when both have pushed, it's a tricky situation (of course I expected it to happen big % of the time, but I can still re-evaluate). As much as I think about it, it seems like a very close decision, and practically a neutral CEV spot, with a chance to get my stack 2.5 times bigger or bust.

I think that's why it's an interesting spot. In most cases I'd simply raise CO. But this particular spot is unique IMO because it put me in a position where I clearly have very small overall edge (if at all), and about to risk my whole tourney. These are the situations we theoretically discuss here so often.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

PM-

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I clearly have very small overall edge

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I know you said CO was loose/bad, but if he has at least 3 functioning brain cells he should realize that people tend to raise him light (and he may even realize the SB is hyperaggressive) so he can push a wide variety of hands to isolate the SB.

As such, it isn't *clear* to me that this is a marginal situation for you.

Basically, you set a trap for an agressive player and caught two LAG's for the price of one. I don't see how you can consider folding AK in that situation.

Later,
Che

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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Basically, you set a trap for an agressive player and caught two LAG's for the price of one. I don't see how you can consider folding AK in that situation.

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Again, this is not so simple IMO. In the actual hand I called immidiately. After the fact I started to think about this situation more (regardless of the results, as I do this with hands I win or lose), and realized that there's more into it.

They are not crazy players. I gave my read in my initial post. I can elaborate on this. My best case scenario is something like for CO to hold say AJ and SB K8 (see schwza post above and my reply), but in MANY cases, even if they hold weak hands like 77 for CO and K9 for SB for instance, calling is slightly overall -CEV. I think that most of the time this will be the case, and cases were both have pocket pairs don't compensate for it, if you think about the fact that I'm fighting on 2 pots here (half my stack in each of them).

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

so put a hand range together for each of them given your read. It will be interesting to use that range to do some side pot math.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

OK i'll try to be more specific about ranges here, but it'll take me some time to get back with it as I'm a bit busy right now... maybe in 2-3 hours. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

Original post:

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Folded to CO... very loose and pretty bad player .... on the SB sits a very aggressive manic player

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This post:

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They are not crazy players.

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These are contradictory statements as I read them. I don't see much difference between loose/bad, aggressive/manic, and crazy.

But, you do and that's the root of our disagreement, I suppose. We obviously won't disagree about the CEV after hand ranges are chosen (since that's just math), but we are using different ranges given the different interpretations of your reads.

I'm interested in reading your hand ranges post (in 2-3 hours when you get around to it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).

Later,
Che

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

Well, maybe it's a matter of vague description of my read of them, although I'm not sure it's the case. When I said later on they are not crazy, I meant they are not $5 rebuy MTT crazy. And in my OP I actually gave a pretty clear range, especially with regard to SB, in order for him to push here: most aces (maybe down to A5), any pair, some Kx. I think that this is very much an aggressive manic poker, without necessarily being completely crazy (for this stage of the game, when the blinds are still low), but maybe it's only semantics. It's *possible* that SB pushes with a wider range (QJ, TJ and some other random stuff, but not as often as with other hands).

I think that in order for CO to mini-raise then push, he should have a somewhat better range, aces from A9-AT to AK, pairs from say 66 and up, KQ and maybe KJ.

Obviously I should be somewhat more worried about CO's range, because I'm playing against him in both pots. I prefer him to have a worse ace than a pair, and for SB to have the pair (if at least one of them has a pair).

Now I guess we have to do some main-pot/side-pot ranges math. Anyone has the time and energy? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

I agree with Che. You tried to trap two over aggressive players and it worked. I also agree with you that it is important to do the math to show that our instincts are right.

OK, this is the first time I've ever used Poker Stove but I promised myself that I would:
(1) Post more often, and
(2) Use real math more often,
so here is my virgin attempt. Don't make fun of me too much if I'm wrong or I may cry.

Here's the Poker Stove stuff based on your ranges:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 39.8688 % [ 00.36 00.03 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 33.2912 % [ 00.31 00.03 ] { AA-66, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A9o, KQo-KJo }
Hand 3: 26.8400 % [ 00.25 00.02 ] { AA-22, AKs-A5s, KQs-K8s, AKo-A5o, KQo-K8o }


equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 59.5462 % [ 00.55 00.04 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 40.4538 % [ 00.36 00.04 ] { AA-66, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A9o, KQo-KJo }

Main pot is 2190 and your Equity is 38.87% CEV = ~851
Side pot is 1340 and your Equity is 59.55% CEV = ~798

Total = 851 + 798 = 1649 so your EV is +249. Actually, since your stack is only 1340 if you fold your EV is +309, no?

Look good? CALL!

Schaefer

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

I like this play the whole way and often use it, but I do think you have to prepare yourself to call here if CO is loose aggressive rather than loose passive.

If CO is one of those people that minraises QJo but will not push in this spot with less than his definition of a 'real hand', you can safely fold. If he minraises because he *does* think QJ is a real hand, you've gotta call him.

edit: Keep in mind that the last time I made this play, the guy raised UTG for the first time all tourney and when I did eventually fold he turned out to have aces. This isn't a play you use against calling stations.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

I think your range is too loose. How many players will miniraise with a9o and then push against an all in with one player behind leaving 1/2 the bet in the center pot.
i dont see a9,at,kq,kj,88,77,66 as a candidate for CO. And I don't really see aj,TT,jj miniraising in late position either.
If you tighten down COs range then its hard for hero to be better than 33% in the center pot, which still gives him EV of ~90.

My range for SB was any ace, any broadway, any pair. (loose).
I think its all about aqo. If you put aqo into COs range then its a about an even bet, and has a lot of variance against supposedly weaker players.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

hey schaefer, you should def post more, your insites would add to the forum. math looks pretty right to me also.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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Don't make fun of me too much if I'm wrong or I may cry.

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Yes we know you're a sensitive guy. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

The math of using the ranges I mentioned does show it's a call. I think it all goes down to how many Ax CO is (mini-raising and then) pushing here, and how many pairs. The more aces compared to pairs, the higher my equity, the more pairs and less aces, the lower it is. I wonder where's the threshold. I think I'll try to play with some numbers.

One minor thing that I think is missing in your calculation (and that is actually quite complicated to handle), is my equity in the side-pot considering SB might hold one of my outs (A or K). It will sure have some small negative effect on my EV against CO, in cases SB wins the main pot and CO has a non-dominated hand (a pair that is). It shouldn't change the conclusion, though.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

Alright, I've been thinking about this hand now since yesterday and I'm not sure if I like the line. For this very situation. Would this be a better spot to re-raise and just pick up chips? In other words is it better to get involved in big pots post flop and stay away from too many crazy pre-flop situations early? I'm still working on this whole accumulating chips early thing.

FWIW, I play this the same way insta-call the double push get shown 10-10 by the cutoff and Q-10 by the SB then when the flop comes J-10-2 I'm screaming Queen like Nick Frangos for two cards.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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And I don't really see aj,TT,jj miniraising in late position either.

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Why not? there are certain (bad) players who will mini-raise with a wide variety of hands, especially if it's folded to them on LP. AJ, TT, JJ are certainly in that range. I agree that some marginal aces might not be in that range, however, there are certainly some players (and I thnk CO is one of them) who can miniraise any pair here (not necessarily reraising all-in with it, tho).

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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Would this be a better spot to re-raise and just pick up chips?

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The thing is, that for re-raise and just pick up chips you can use 52o. I had a feeling that in this particular situation, you gain maximum value for AKo by trapping these players PF, and yes, playing a big "bust or 2.5xup" pot (there's also a chance you'll be left with half your stack).

After the hand I had second thoughts about it, but the math does show it is definitely a clear +CEV spot, and since it's still relatively early in the game, you should have very good reasons to play it in a less riskier way only to survive it, IMO.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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AJ, TT, JJ are certainly in that range.

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This is the range I thought of from your original description of CO. That good hand that wouldn't be that strong in a three way pot. Even adding in 99 and A10 soooted.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

Which is why I'm almost unhappy to see AK sometimes in this spot. I'd prefer to see it mid-way through the tourney when I have just raised back to back pots on steals. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

Before I read the other replies, I think this is an easy call. I think you have more than 33% equity, so I put in some ranges in poker stove and it came up with 35%. That is a bit misleading though, since you are really concerned about CO. I think against CO you probably have close to 50% equity, with the times he shows up with AQ and maybe AJ making up some of the ground you lose on all the times you are against a pair. Also, there is a significant chance you can beat the CO and lose to the sb, which leaves you almost exactly where you are when you face the all in call (T20 less if my mental math is correct).

At any rate, I think this is an easy call since I think you are in a +Chip EV situation early in the tourney for all your chips. That is just a situation I have come to love, if you win you are in great shape if you lose, oh well. In the long run I think making calls like this are significantly +Cashing EV.

Re: Small edge w/ AKo?
 

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One minor thing that I think is missing in your calculation (and that is actually quite complicated to handle), is my equity in the side-pot considering SB might hold one of my outs (A or K).

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I believe that PM and the CO will each win the side pot in approximately the same proportions that they win the main pot.

Thus, I estimate side pot equity as:

39.8688/(39.8688+33.2912)=.5450

This is quite a bit lower than the 59.5% that does not consider the third hand taking outs from AK so it may have a meaningful impact on the total EV of the hand. I'll let others elaborate... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Later,
Che