Making my set on the turn
 

For you pokertracker fiends, the villain in this hand is a
10/5 guy over about 400 hands with a postflop agression factor of 6. If he's been watching (and I suspect he has), he'll see me as 18/8 in this session with like 2.75 postflop.

The minraise on the turn threw me off a bit as in my experience it means a big hand. Maybe this guy has a smaller set, A3, or just a medium pair and is trying to push my around. As a matter of full disclosure, it's only my second time at this level so I'm getting used to it.

Thoughts?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 10 handed) converter

SB ($392)
BB ($157)
<font color="red">Hero ($465.83)</font>
UTG+1 ($384)
UTG+2 ($190.4)
MP1 ($232.16)
MP2 ($200.84)
MP3 ($198.9)
CO ($462.2)
<font color="red">Button Villain ($716.92)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Villain calls $4, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($20) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, MP2 folds, Villain calls $20, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($60) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises to $80</font>, Hero calls $40.

River: ($220) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $150</font>, Hero calls $150.

Final Pot: $520

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

Ugh, raise preflop.

3-bet this turn, maybe make it $180 more.

A smaller set is a lot more likely than A3.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

I don't think 10/5 guys play A3.

CR all in on the river.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

3 bet turn and push river. shouldn't be scared of QQ since they would raise in position. A3 suited is possible, but i don't understand pokertracker stats. i think you're good, try to get it all in.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

Raise preflop, raise river. I think you're good here most of the time, but since there was no raise preflop, not impossible for some1 to have A3.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

$150 more is probably better actually.

And I disagree with calling and cr'ing the river.

Any ace, three, six, or club could potentially kill your action.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
$150 more is probably better actually.

And I disagree with calling and cr'ing the river.

Any ace, three, six, or club could potentially kill your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed-

I guess my point was that I don't see much reason to fear A3 - so as played (with Hero checking the river), might as well put it all in.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

besides A,3 it's possible he could have 3 6 too

Raise preflop!

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

I posted this and had to leave. I'll make some more comments in a little while, but I will leave y'all with this real quick.

Most of the time I raise UTG with JJ and then sometimes I don't. This time I didn't raise, so please get past that aspect of the hand.

BTW, thanks for taking the time to reply. I honestly appreciate the opinions.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

Put as much money into this pot as you can. Reraise turn. Bet river.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

You know when I'm looking back over this hand it occurs to me that I'm looking at it all wrong. I mean what does this guy think I have? This is the point I need to put him on a hand and get as much money as I can. I think there's very little chance he has A3 and even less he has 63 because he's a very tight player. A set makes sense or perhaps a draw that improved (like 7c 6c). I mean he has to have a little something, something because he called $20 cold with two players behind him. I think the safefest play is to 3 bet the turn in such a manner that makes it wrong for most draws. If he's got a set, the money goes in. If he's drawing, then I can make a decision on the river.

The thing is I believe the guy had me squarely on hand. He had me on a middle pair. I didn't raise preflop but I did call UTG. I led at it when rags came down. And when the Jack hit the turn I dutifully fired again. At this point he tried to take it away. When I checked the river, he thought he was right and fired off $150. I meekly called with my set and won a nice pot. He tabled 6d7d for a nice steal attempt with outs.

Does anyone think they could figure all that out in the heat of the moment? I mean if I push the turn hard he may or may not call depending on the amount I shove in the middle. When the river whiffs for him, he's done. But if I figure that he's got me on a certain hand (in this case a middle pair) and let him hang himself a bit when he tries to bluff that seems like the best way to play it (for someone who's really REALLY good which is not me).

I don't think I could have won a penny more, but I definitely was in danger of getting stacked. I think I played it poorly and bumbled into a nice win.

Does any of that makes sense?

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Put as much money into this pot as you can. Reraise turn. Bet river.

[/ QUOTE ]its really this simple. PF raise is also good.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
its really this simple. PF raise is also good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another thing I thought about later was, 'If I was still playing 100 max would I have been afraid of putting all my money in on the river?' And the answer was an instant and emphatic, 'No'. But that has as much to do with the limits as with the level of play. I mean I expect donkeys at those levels.

But let me ask one more time...do any of you guys EVER EVER limp with JJ UTG? Seriously, fellas... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If I raise, I probably make it much easier, but I didn't. If I didn't walk into the dark urban alley all alone late one night I wouldn't be standing there with a guy pointing a big gun at me. But I did. So what's my best move?

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]

But let me ask one more time...do any of you guys EVER EVER limp with JJ UTG? Seriously, fellas... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


[/ QUOTE ]

Sure.

I limp every hand UTG though.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sure.

I limp every hand UTG though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, that's what I'm talking about.

Re: Making my set on the turn
 

I play in a style sometimes where I never raise in EP in a full game - I don't think you give up too much by doing this sometimes and you play well postflop.

I see nothing wrong with limping JJ UTG if that's your style.