Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

Opponents here were pretty typical 2/4, i.e., loose and passive. Assume AGF ~1.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

This was a hand from a student of mine. Thought you guys might like it.

Krishan

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

Calling the river is awesome for 2 reasons.

a) You will be very, very unhappy when UTG caps it with his boat. He will almost never cap with a hand you beat.
2) You're almost guaranteed an overcall by BB, which means you'll be getting the same amount in the pot that you would had you raised, BB folds, and UTG calls with his trips. Plus, you're doing it without the fear of losing 2 more bets.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I wouldn't mind just completing preflop because BB is loose.

I like the flop and turn.

River call is good because if BB overcalls and we're good: +1 BB. If we lose, we don't lose any more BB. If we 3-bet and we're good: +1 BB (BB will probably fold) unless UTG caps trips or a lower jack. If we 3-bet and UTG has a boat: -2 BB.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I think you'll see a naked J often enough to 3bet that river. I'd have expected you to hear from a set or two pair on the turn. I think that's a somewhat questionable raise preflop, even SH. I'd like it better if BB might actually fold, but if he's LPP, that may not happen. I'm about 50/50 complete/raise.

Edit: OK, going for overcalls is something that I need to work on. Yeah, the call here is better since BB is likely to come along.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

(a) Why are we giving him credit for a boat and not just trip J's? If he had a boat he'd have had two pair (or a set) earlier and not raised it?

(um, 2) This is a good point, but might your typical calling station not just over call this again on the river? He's done nothing but call so far.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

Grunching as requested....

I 3-bet the river without a very strong read.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I think I'm raising the river. Going for overcalls is ok, but I think that when it's capped it's trip jacks a pretty good chunk of the time. With that flop, UTG would probably raise two pair or a set, since there are so many draws out there he might get BB trapped.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

*Grunching*

I 3-bet the river, he has trips way way more often than a fullhouse. I understand that by 3-betting we may sacrifice BB's overcall but I think a typical player calls two raises often enough to be +EV.

I like the rest.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I think this is very straightforward and correct play.

With the river pairing Js and the sudden wake up by UTG that might mean a full house, but probably not so folding is a mistake. Since BB called 1 bet already, he'll most likely call the raise, but re-raising will probably put him out and cost you an extra bet if the boat does show up. So i think calling is better then raising here.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

[ QUOTE ]
River call is good because if BB overcalls and we're good: +1 BB. If we lose, we don't lose any more BB. If we 3-bet and we're good: +1 BB (BB will probably fold) unless UTG caps trips or a lower jack. If we 3-bet and UTG has a boat: -2 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

It comes down to how often BB will call two vs. how often we're agaisnt a boat.

I think BB calls two more about 15% of the time and I think we're hardly ever up agaisnt a boat here.

Also UTG may cap 3 Jacks.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
(a) Why are we giving him credit for a boat and not just trip J's? If he had a boat he'd have had two pair (or a set) earlier and not raised it?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not necessarily a matter of giving him credit for a boat. It's saying that given the chance that he has a boat, how can I make the most and lose the least.

This a classic fish line for flopping a big hand against a preflop raiser.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
(um, 2) This is a good point, but might your typical calling station not just over call this again on the river? He's done nothing but call so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think asking him to call 2 on a paired board with a 3-flush after a preflop raiser hasn't let up, and there's sudden aggression from another player is asking a lot. He will call occassionally, but I don't think he will do it often enough.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I play this the same way. Sucks that the board paired, and you might have lost to a boat, but I don't see another raise on the river here.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I'd probably 3-bet. I think we would have heard from two pair earlier in the hand. A call is really not too bad either since BB is along and is probably calling here, but heck, he might call two anyway.
edit: actually, we may not have heard from J5 earlier in the hand. I'd still 3-bet but kick the cat when it's capped. My cat probably likes the call.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

3-bet the river. He'd have said something if he had 2-pair before the river, I think.

-d

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

*Grunching*

Going for the river overcall seems the best play here. 3-betting will force out BB most of the time. We'll gain 1 bet when our hand is good (I doubt UTG will cap with only trips when there's 3 to a flush on board) and lose 1 or 2 (when UTG caps) bets when UTG has us beat.

By calling we gain an extra bet every time our hand is good without losing anything extra when UTG has a boat (assuming BB always calls of course).

olavfo

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I like the postflop, not sure I'd raise this preflop though its not bad

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

It is tough to know if 3-betting the river is correct. We need to know how often he will cap with the best/worst hand, how often the other player will call another bet but not another two bets, etc. The hand looks fine.

Brad

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

[ QUOTE ]
It is tough to know if 3-betting the river is correct. We need to know how often he will cap with the best/worst hand, how often the other player will call another bet but not another two bets, etc. The hand looks fine.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually disagree. You don't need this information. It only seems like you do.

Krishan

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

My feeling is that we're good here about 90% of the time.

We lose 2 bets when we're no good (10%)

of the times we're good (90%):
Sometimes Villain will cap with trips (7.5% of 90%) +2 BB
Somestimes BB will cold-call (7.5% of 90%) +3 BB
BB folds, Villain calls (85% of 90%) +1 BB

(.1)(-2)+(.075)(.9)(2)+(.075)(.9)(3)+(.85)(.9)(1)
EV = -.2 + .135 + .2025 + .765 = 1.1025 BB

Or, another way (x = % our flush is good on the river)

(1-x)(-2)+.15x+.225x+.85x = 0
-2+2x+1.225x=0
3.225x = 2
x = .620

Given these percentages, we need to be good on the river a little less than 2/3s of the time to 3-bet. I think we're good here a sizable portion above that, so I rizzle.

-d

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

3-bet river...

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I like a reraise on the river. You may lose BB, but you might not and I'm willing to take the chance that he will call two more. Even if you lose BB, maybe UTG will cap with what certainly looks like trips. But I am not great about the whole overcall thing. I am essentially never concerned about a full house, as you would have heard from a set or two pair earlier.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

i'm on the fence about the PFR OOP vs 2. i think b/c there are a bunch of flops that i don't want to make a continuation bet on (tho, i know it's not written in stone that you have to) and now, there are 6SB (vs 3) for me to try and win...

the rest seems fine to me.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I'm raising this river. I really like our chances of winning this pot and I think BB and UTG call enough to make raising +EV over just going for one overcall. The rest is pretty standard.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm on the fence about the PFR OOP vs 2. i think b/c there are a bunch of flops that i don't want to make a continuation bet on (tho, i know it's not written in stone that you have to) and now, there are 6SB (vs 3) for me to try and win...

the rest seems fine to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't much like the preflop raise. It's probably marginal at best.

Krishan

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling is that we're good here about 90% of the time.

We lose 2 bets when we're no good (10%)

of the times we're good (90%):
Sometimes Villain will cap with trips (7.5% of 90%) +2 BB
Somestimes BB will cold-call (7.5% of 90%) +3 BB
BB folds, Villain calls (85% of 90%) +1 BB

(.1)(-2)+(.075)(.9)(2)+(.075)(.9)(3)+(.85)(.9)(1)
EV = -.2 + .135 + .2025 + .765 = 1.1025 BB

Or, another way (x = % our flush is good on the river)

(1-x)(-2)+.15x+.225x+.85x = 0
-2+2x+1.225x=0
3.225x = 2
x = .620

Given these percentages, we need to be good on the river a little less than 2/3s of the time to 3-bet. I think we're good here a sizable portion above that, so I rizzle.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice analysis. Except I think we are good here closer to 95% of the time.

Krishan

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

Or, another way (x = % our flush is good on the river)

(1-x)(-2)+.15x+.225x+.85x = 0
-2+2x+1.225x=0
3.225x = 2
x = .620

The problem is that you have to adjust for how many times that we get the overcall. Let's say for example that the dude overcalls 70% of the time.

Or, another way (x = % our flush is good on the river)

(1-x)(-2)+.15x+.225x+.85x = .7
-2+2x+1.225x=.7
3.225x = 2.7
x = .837

Brad

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

The essence of this hand is whether or not UTG can have a full house here on the river.

I think some people are getting stuck on the read. At 2/4 loose passive is probably reasonably agressive at .5/1. Given that this is also a shorthand table means you can kick up the expected agression another notch. A postflop agression factor of 1 means both opponents do raise a fair amount.

Given that more detailed read, it is nearly impossible for UTG to have a full house. 99% of the time he would have raised either the flop or turn with two pair or a set. He is in ideal position to extract bets on the turn as well.

The most likely hand for him to have is trip jacks. You should also consider the way we have played our hand. Since we led the flop, our flush is partially concealed. From UTG's perspective we could have nearly anything. A flush is far from his mind. Raising trips Jacks in this spot is a no-brainer.

Given that we are always ahead of UTG, the best river line is to reraise. You will always get 1 bet from UTG.

I think people are being results oriented when they say the BB will always call for 1. In my experience this is close to 80%.

Other have posted the analysis required if you are not sure you have the best hand on the river. You have to consider the times the BB will call 2, the times he'll call 2, the times you'll be capped by a worse/better hand and so forth. But when you have the best hand as often as we do, you can skip the analysis and pump the pot.

Krishan

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I'm getting a little different -- but you're right. I've taken 1 BB off all the expected values to adjust for a 100% overcall. (Expected values are now what we'd expect to make above and beyond an overcall)

(.1)(-1)+(.075)(.9)(1)+(.075)(.9)(2)+(.85)(.9)(0)
-(1-x)+.0675x+.135x+0=0
-1+x+.2025x=0
1.2025x=1
x=.832

It's a lot closer, and against a really passive Villain, I may just call, but otherwise, i'm raising here, especially with a fishy SB.

(And I agree with the above respondant, I think we're good here almost all the time as J9 would have tossed a raise somewhere, I'd imagine, and all other possibilities seem poor -- another flush isn't unlikely either.)

-d

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

link to HUSH thoughts on the hand

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I don't like the preflop raise. You're looking at playing A6 suited OOP, and you aren't going to narrow the field any further (or have a large enough field to pay off big hands).

Flop is fine.

Turn is fine.

River, I'm torn between 3 betting and calling looking for overcalls. I do not fear a boat. I think UTG pays off a 3 bet everytime, and will cap with trip Js or a boat. So we lose less when behind this way. The question is are we behind more or less often than BB will call a 3 bet? BB looks pretty much like he's decided to come all the way, so I'm 3 betting.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I'd usually complete in the SB here with a loose passive BB.

I like the river call.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

i generally limp PF unless i have good folding equity.

i 3-bet the river readless.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

3 bet the river. AJo would have been an easy open for a loose UTG. BB will likely call with anything to SD his weak 2 pair.

Maybe I'm nuts.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I 3-bet this everytime. I bet some people will say OMG THE FULLHOUSE!!!!11one but don't be silly, he didn't pick up 2 pair on the turn, and didn't pick up a fullhouse on the river, its that simple. And he never had trips.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I would play this hand exactly the same way.

-DeathDonkey

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

I three bet the river, because NO ONE plays a set or two pair like that. You've disguised your hand nicely so he won't fear a flush with two pair or a set, so he's not going to give up on a slow play here.

He has a lame jack and thinks you have AA-QQ. Plus BB has already paid one bet to see the river, he'll be more likely to pay two now.

The only hand I see us losing to is J5o.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

Grunch Post
3-Bet river

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

probably would just complete rather than raise in sb, then go for a check/raise rather than leading out. If checked through then try again on turn.
on the river, as noone showed any strength on flop, unless they were waiting for a safe turn card to raise, i would not be too worried about a set turning into boat or quads. i would still probably call though.

Re: Gimme your critique (Grunch it)
 

Yikes, there was a lot of semi-weak-tight talk about the chance that the guy has a boat, and were better going for overcalls here.

Ick.

It is much more likely he's got some random Jack-off. A set or two pair certainly wouldn't have made some noise earlier in the hand.

The BB already put one bet in the pot - granted were making him call two more, but he's been calling all along, with the raise pf out of the blinds imo.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]