Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

This is the first in a series of questions I'll be posting about calling various streets based on odds and player reads.

Question 1
You are in a $1/2 limit game.

It is heads up and you hold K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

The board is 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

There is $6 in the pot and your opponent has bet $2.

Assume your opponent will only bet when they have a made hand. If a scare card comes, like the third to a flush, they will fold and not pay it off.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

I voted no. Why?

The odds against hitting your hand are just over 4:1 and the pot is offering 4:1. There are no implied odds since we know he'll fold to the flush card. So, no call. That doesn't mean I'd fold either.

I would seriously consider raising since this guy seems to offer greater than normal fold equity. Additionally, since I have no implied odds with this guy, I want the money in now - before the scare card comes.

Regards,

T

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

Depend on what made hand your opponent holds. I'd say you have odds to call against the range of hands that bets here, but it's close. Neither choice here is very wrong.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

Heads-up against an aggressive player you have some implied odds. Say he has QQ and the river is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I can see that earning you at least 1BB on the river in the long run, probably closer to 1.5

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

Well since your decisions is based on player reads and the only read you give is about the river payoff it is kind of a hard question (like pf action, flop action,position of the villian in relation to the blinds).

But against a range of hands, HU, I would make this call. He could have less than top pair and your KJ are live (but discounted). All you are looking for is breakeven odds to call.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

If a scare card comes, like the third to a flush, they will fold and not pay it off.

So a "scare card" like a 5, 4, 3, or 8 will allow a bluff on my part to take the pot?

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Heads-up against an aggressive player you have some implied odds. Say he has QQ and the river is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I can see that earning you at least 1BB on the river in the long run, probably closer to 1.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, judging by the information given I was assuming this was not an aggressive opponent. I sure see your point that if he makes a set and I make a flush, he's going to pay me off (assuming you meant Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), but I think it's a very thin profit in the long run. That is, there's a very slight chance of him improving enough to pay off my flush given the description by the OP.

That's why I wanted to make my profit now on the turn. Some scenarios:

<ul type="square">[*]I call, flush card comes, I bet he folds. I make 1 bet.
[*]I raise, he calls, flush card comes, I bet he folds. I make 2 bets.
[*]I call, flush does not come, he bets, I fold. I lose 1 bet.
[*]I raise, flush does not come, he bets, I fold. I lose 2 bets.
[*]I raise, he folds. I win 1 bet.[/list]I think the fold equity of this situation make a raise just slightly better than a call.

This assumes I have discounted the outstanding kings as outs by putting him on an Ace.

I agree with Kurn's statement that's it's close either way. It may be so close it doesn't really matter whether you fold, call or raise. I expect there's a flaw in my logic somewhere above, so please point it out if you see it.

Regards,

T

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

I see it as very simple. At this point, you have nothing. The pot is only offering you even money, so a 35% draw is not worth it...fold.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see it as very simple. At this point, you have nothing. The pot is only offering you even money, so a 35% draw is not worth it...fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're folding 35% ($2.80) of the pot, which is more than the $2 to invest to see the river. Plus you are putting your opponent on Ace, two pair or a set only and negating lesser hands. I think you're thinking far too weak-tight.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

I would rather be in the driver's seat...semi bluff betting, than putting my chances on a draw. I would rather go all in with a flush draw and try and make my opponent fold, than call with a flush draw just to win even money.

- Jim

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

This is limit not NL..

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

Woops...I would still fold...the pot odds should at least be 2:1...2 or more players...I would fold.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see it as very simple. At this point, you have nothing. The pot is only offering you even money, so a 35% draw is not worth it...fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're folding 35% ($2.80) of the pot, which is more than the $2 to invest to see the river. Plus you are putting your opponent on Ace, two pair or a set only and negating lesser hands. I think you're thinking far too weak-tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I made a mistake, my odds were on the flop not the turn so the 2.8 is incorrect unless the KJ outs are live.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

The pot odds for making your flush should be 4:1 and they are 4:1, breakeven if you just assume that you would only win by making your flush.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

The odds of hitting your hand, if you are including the 6 outs you have with the K J, may be more, but the pot odds are even. It is heads up right? Every bet made was called. Unless a few people saw the flop then folded. Personally, I would have never made it to the turn. Can you explain a flaw in my thinking?

Thanks,

- Jim

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

Well the OP doesnt explain how we got to the turn. But the pot is laying you 4:1, and just assuming you're flush is good gives you 4:1, taking into account that the villian may have less than top pair gives the possibility that in some way your KJ are live, pushing a breakeven call (which I would still make) to a clearly profitable one.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

Assume your opponent will only bet when they have a made hand.

Again, you do not define "made hand".

Set? 2-pr? If so, 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] suddenly become dangerous outs if he is betting the turn.

By the description of him laying the hand down to a river bet if the flush hits, I assume you mean set or 2-pr rather than just A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or pocket Q's.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Assume your opponent will only bet when they have a made hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
This means that your only outs are to the flush.

[ QUOTE ]
If a scare card comes, like the third to a flush, they will fold and not pay it off.

[/ QUOTE ]
I should have been more explicit or made a better board because my goal was to have the flush cards be the only scare cards.

[ QUOTE ]
There is $6 in the pot and your opponent has bet $2.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your pot odds are 4:1, but your odds of making a flush on the river are 4.1:1 (37/9)

If your opponent will not pay you off when your flush card comes, then calling the turn is -EV because you are not getting the implied odds needed to make up for your lack of pot odds now.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Heads-up against an aggressive player you have some implied odds. Say he has QQ and the river is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I can see that earning you at least 1BB on the river in the long run, probably closer to 1.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Making a set on the river is at least a 23:1 long shot (assuming no one folded one of your cards). You cannot count on that happening.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

Making a set on the river is at least a 23:1 long shot (assuming no one folded one of your cards). You cannot count on that happening.

I disagree. You can absolutely count on this happening ~4% of the time.

In addition, if he has QQ, you have 12 outs, not 9, so clearly you have pot odds to call, and 4% of the time, you have additional implied odds.

Just because a given outcome is unlikely does not mean that those outcomes do not add to your equity.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

[ QUOTE ]

This means that your only outs are to the flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

Come on, this is ridiculous. You're providing a set of assumptions that you will almost never see. Even if you knew a villain wouldn't pay off a flush card, you must call as your K and J are certainly good often enough to push your 4.1 to 1 odds into profitable range.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

The original post seems to be an exercise in the hypothetical. Based purely on what he's stated, and the intended nature of his post, it's a fold. The only consideration is whether all of your flush outs are live.

Re: Do you have the odds to call? (Question 1)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assume your opponent will only bet when they have a made hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
This means that your only outs are to the flush.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you really mean this, please play at my table.